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Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 12088307)
Not a sympathiser by any stretch, just aware of the likely cost in blood & treasure to definitively achieve this aim - also whether its our (i.e. the UK's) problem to fix? After all the US has been banging on about how the conflict in Ukraine was Europe's problem (rightly so IMO) - perhaps this is one for Israel and the Middle East, and their respective backers, to figure out?
I agree. Trump has an unwarranted expectation that europe will have a Eureka moment that they have some moral obligation to solve a regional war with Iran. One that should be handled by the regional powers, not by those far away. Soon, he and his acolytes will start musing that europe was late to the war. It'll morph into assumed fact that europe was somehow morally compelled to be there and will moan about being late by months to years and that their help wasn't really needed. |
Originally Posted by MissChief
(Post 12088295)
There are a lot of Iran 'sympathisers' above, who seem oblivious to the fact that the established Iranian religious/military regime intend to remove Israel from the face of the earth.
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Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer
(Post 12088351)
That is a widely inaccurate statement. On the contrary, I don’t think anyone is oblivious, it is a matter of what to do about it. February’s foray, excursion, love tap whatever you want to call it, has been universally condemned as not the way to go about it, and is arguably proving to be a failure strategically and diplomatically. Strangely enough, the US was doing something about it but then that agreement was unilaterally torn up.
The Agreement he tore up about a decade ago is, at this point in history, irrelevant, given that Joe Biden didn't try to get it put back into place when he had a chance to do so. I leave it as an exercise to the reader to try and figure out why it turned out that way. |
Originally Posted by MissChief
(Post 12088295)
There are a lot of Iran 'sympathisers' above, who seem oblivious to the fact that the established Iranian religious/military regime intend to remove Israel from the face of the earth. That is non-negotiable. This Armageddon scenario must be avoided. And Iran must therefore be stopped, ideally by its own people. But this looks unlikely.
The same is true of Israel, and for that matter of many other places on this planet. |
Today's updates in regard to the Straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandab, the anchorages inside and outside the Persian Gulf.......and suspicious behaviour, potential false flag or a little bit of something fishy
As we all know, in the last few days there have been some drones flying around the Gulf States.....at least three were intercepted over Saudi Arabia and, of course, there was a drone attack in the UAE close to the nuclear reactor (already discussed up thread). Thankfully Saudi Arabia intercepted their batch of inbound drones.....and they know exactly where they came from. In a similar vein, the inbound drones to Abu Dhabi have been tracked back. The Gulf States are renowned for being suspicious of each other. But the drones didn't come from the place they anticipated, that being Iran. They came from Iraq. In the Saudi's case this is not the first time that drones have been launched at them from Iraq this month, indeed the Iraqi ambassador was summoned to Riyadh to explain himself last week. Needless to say that ambassador has been summoned again. This from the Saudis.... The Saudi Ministry of Defense announced on Sunday evening, May 17, 2026, that its air defense forces successfully intercepted and destroyed three unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) after they crossed into the Kingdom’s airspace from Iraq. According to an official statement by the Ministry of Defense spokesperson, Major General Turki Al-Malki, the infiltration occurred on Sunday morning. Al-Malki emphasized that the Kingdom reserves the full right to respond to this breach at the appropriate time and place. He added that the ministry will implement all necessary operational measures to counter any aggression threatening the Kingdom’s sovereignty, internal security, or the safety of its citizens and residents. While Saudi authorities did not immediately identify the specific faction responsible for the launch, the incident follows a pattern of heightened cross-border friction. Last month, the Saudi Foreign Ministry summoned Iraq’s ambassador to Riyadh to protest continued drone threats originating from Iraqi territory. Iraqi authorities have not yet issued an official comment on the latest interception. The Iraqi response..... Iraq has confirmed that it is investigating an attempted drone attack launched from Iraqi territory against Saudi Arabia on Sunday. The Iraqi Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Monday that air defenses had not detected any drones launched from Iraqi airspace. The ministry further stated that Iraq had received no information about the attack against Saudi Arabia through its own means. Iraq has launched an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the attempted attack on neighboring Saudi Arabia using three drones, according to the Iraqi Foreign Ministry. It also urged Saudi Arabia to disclose information on the attempted strike. Furthermore, it emphasized its opposition to any attacks against neighboring countries. The UAE, also very (and understandably) angry at being attacked by three drones..... With no clear information on who is behind the attack, Gargash said the "terrorist" incident, "whether carried out by the principal perpetrator or through one of its agents, represents a dangerous escalation and a dark scene that violates all international laws and norms, in criminal disregard for the lives of civilians in the UAE and its surroundings". "This prohibited escalation serves to reaffirm the nature of the challenges facing the region in confronting the forces of evil, chaos, and sabotage," said the top official. Standing firm on UAE's position and strength during these regional tensions, the advisor said: "No one will twist the UAE's arm, nor will they succeed in undermining its vision, its success, and its inspiring message to the peoples of the region in security, stability, development, and prosperity." At the same time that drones were launched at Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi......Israel is found to have two secret bases, having been there since 2024, in Iraq (though apparently not secret from the US administration) and they lose a very large stockpile of weapons at a defence contractor's (Tomer) factory in Beit Shemesh, Israel. The information regarding the secret bases and Beit Shemesh incident : Israel built two military bases in Iraq before war on Iran (Al Jazeera - May 18, 2026) Massive explosion in Beit Shemesh area was coordinated test with defense company, officials say (Jerusalem Post - May 17, 2026) In relation to the test at Beit Shemest....why would you decide to test anything explosive in the midst of a war with sticky ceasefires? As someone outside the military, a layperson if you will...this all seems very contrived and convenient. Given Netanyahu's burning desire to continue the fight against Iran......would it be so far off the mark for the drones against Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, the bases within Iraq and the Beit Shemesh incident to be some sort of false flag to get the war going again? Afterall...no-one can deny that Netanyahu's whispers about a nuclear weapon pointing at Washington DC started this conflict...even after the various intelligence agencies and IAEA stated categorically that no such threat existed.....no-one can deny Netanyahu's strong desire to wipe Iran off the earth. Would he / could he have been behind the weekend's "activities"? To add a little extra to all of this, Pakistan have deployed 8000 troops, an entire squadron of JF-17 jets, drones and their Chinese HQ-9 air defensive system to Saudi Arabia.....this was done despite Pakistan being one of the main mediators tween the US and Iran. More here : Exclusive: Pakistan deploys jet squadron, thousands of troops to Saudi Arabia during Iran war (Reuters - May 18, 2026) So like it or not, more and more countries are being dragged into this war...a war that alot of people have said should never have happened. Hence the layperson's thoughts and pondering that the weekend's "activities" were orchestrated by the one nation's leader who has a record of going rogue in the past...and being pulled up by the US for doing so. Food for thought. On to the Straits of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandab At time of writing there are no recorded incidents on either Strait. Hormuz is exceptionally quiet again this morning with very little heavy ship traffic, just an occasional Iranian patrol boat or ekranoplan. The Bab-el-Mandab is flowing freely, a little quieter than normal but nothing untoward as yet being reported either with Houthi or piracy. https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....484cae6bb0.png https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....8df2782fa2.png Anchorages within the main body of the Persian Gulf are busy from Doha to Kuwait. Ships are still being loaded in Umm Qasr (Iraq), Al Jubayl (Saudi Arabia) and from offshore platforms / floating storage vessels. https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....7759492e3f.png The anchorages of Mina Saqr, Ras al Khaimah, Umm a Quwain, Sharjah, Dubai, Jebel Ali and offshore Das Island are extremely congested, very tight anchoring once again with the usual Iranian herders in close proximity https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9d58ab78c3.png On the other side, the Gulf of Oman, the anchorages / ports of Dibba, Khor Fakkan and Fujairah are still very quiet (all three ports little of no ships showing on AIS). The anchorages of Al Widyyat, Liwa, Khor Fakkan and Sohar are very busy, as is the port of Muscat https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4c0e34689f.png There is no further update regarding the remaining crew who were injured aboard CMA CGM San Antonio apart from yesterday's post in the thread above, That's it for today....back tomorrow |
it is incredible that , as mentioned above - India and China plus America , Israel, the EU, the Arab States ,UK etc -all countries adversely affected by the Iran war which is causing hardship ( starvation ) to millions - seem to be absolutely helpless - frozen - in stopping it and re-opening the strait.
if they got together Iran could be forced to give up it’s nuclear ambitions without being further razed to the ground. Taking the attitude - America (Trump ) you started it you finish it is increasingly self defeating. Our man Starmer tries to generate diplomatic action but appears to be getting no-where beyond words providing support ONLY when the war is over is weak. Time for the UN to pull its finger out or else disband and set up something new - the ability of Russia etc to veto any progress has long been unacceptable. An 80 year old organisation unfit for now. 188 countries can vote together only to be vetoed by 1 of the big 5. |
The problem with a joint force of affected nations is that the US would almost certainly insist on commanding it, and there's not a nation on the planet who would put trust in Trump's strategic genius. He also has a habit of turning on allies.
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Originally Posted by AirScotia
(Post 12088504)
The problem with a joint force of affected nations is that the US would almost certainly insist on commanding it, and there's not a nation on the planet who would put trust in Trump's strategic genius. He also has a habit of turning on allies.
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Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 12088521)
There are foreign forces under US command currently, that if hostilities were to break out will be fighting under the US. Might want to rethink your position.
Until this Iran debacle, I'm pretty sure most nations had a fair degree of trust in US military competence, and assumed military leaders wouldn't allow the CiC to make really stupid decisions. But the CiC has made stunningly stupid decisions, and the US military has done its best to obey them. No non-US leader is going to risk its own troops to such strategic naivety. |
Originally Posted by AirScotia
(Post 12088542)
You mean NATO? The US seems wholly uninterested in NATO except for the useful European bases it provides. If hostilities do break out in Europe with, say, Russia attacking a Baltic country, I think it's doubtful whether Trump would step up to support NATO. It fact, it seems plausible that he might support Putin against the European nations. So I think the chances of Euro troops having to follow US leadership are small while the current administration prevails. NATO is on its last legs.
Until this Iran debacle, I'm pretty sure most nations had a fair degree of trust in US military competence, and assumed military leaders wouldn't allow the CiC to make really stupid decisions. But the CiC has made stunningly stupid decisions, and the US military has done its best to obey them. No non-US leader is going to risk its own troops to such strategic naivety. Should you not, let me introduce you to the USAF General who leads SHAPE. He is the man who would lead the NATO response to your notional attack. https://shape.nato.int/saceur-2 |
Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 12088543)
Do you acknowledge that there are foreign troops under US command?
Should you not, let me introduce you to the USAF General who leads SHAPE. He is the man who would lead the NATO response to your notional attack. https://shape.nato.int/saceur-2 |
My naturally suspicious nature makes me wonder if a USAF head of SHAPE considers himself to be subordinate to an Italian Admiral. I suspect Trump does not.
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Originally Posted by ex-fast-jets
(Post 12088581)
My naturally suspicious nature makes me wonder if a USAF head of SHAPE considers himself to be subordinate to an Italian Admiral. I suspect Trump does not.
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"there'd be a move afoot to remove the good General from his leadership position". If this General is in fact any good, Trump will sack him eventually.
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Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 12088543)
Do you acknowledge that there are foreign troops under US command?
Should you not, let me introduce you to the USAF General who leads SHAPE. He is the man who would lead the NATO response to your notional attack. https://shape.nato.int/saceur-2 SACEUR is not an adjunct. I'm not sure that you are in a position to effect introductions. |
Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 12088521)
There are foreign forces under US command currently, that if hostilities were to break out will be fighting under the US. Might want to rethink your position.
Originally Posted by AirScotia
(Post 12088504)
The problem with a joint force of affected nations is that the US would almost certainly insist on commanding it, and there's not a nation on the planet who would put trust in Trump's strategic genius. He also has a habit of turning on allies.
Originally Posted by AirScotia
(Post 12088542)
No non-US leader is going to risk its own troops to such strategic naivety.
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Iran has now officially launched what it calls "Hormuz Safe", a digital based insurance payable by Bitcoin to enable safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz under the care of a new Iranian department - Persian Gulf Strait Authority - that will oversee initially Iranian maritime traffic through the Strait.
More here : Iran Launches Bitcoin-Based Insurance Scheme for Ships Crossing Hormuz (gCaptain / Bloomberg - May 18, 2026) Iran has started a Bitcoin-backed insurance service for Iranian shipping companies that want to transit the Strait of Hormuz, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, citing documents obtained from the country’s Ministry of Economy and Financial Affairs. According to a screen shot of the insurance company’s website, dubbed Hormuz Safe and shared by Fars news, it “provides Iranian shipping companies and cargo owners with fast, verifiable digital insurance.” Fars didn’t give a detailed break down of how the insurance works and whether it’s available to foreign shipping companies and vessels. Iran is heavily sanctioned by the US and its use of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Tether has ballooned since President Donald Trump started targeting its economy and energy exports during his first administration. Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz — a major conduit for global energy supplies and other goods — since the US and Israel began airstrikes against the country on Feb. 28. The government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have since been looking to formalize control over the waterway, including imposing tolls and other fees. An insurance service could be another means to raise funds. .......... On Monday, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council officially launched the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, a body created to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. According to an account on X, the PGSA is the “legal entity and representative authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the management of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.” It’s unclear the extent to which the Hormuz Safe insurance service is tied directly to the IRGC or the government’s wider plans to consolidate an official toll system. Fars is closely affiliated with the Guards. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0907530dd5.png |
The Congressional Research Service has listed the 42 US aircraft lost or damaged so far during the war with Iran:
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Drones from Iraq - Cui Bono?
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Not damaged...
Whatever way the US want to call it, the E3 was not damaged but destroyed and images which make this abundantly clear have been in the public domain almost since the day after it happened.
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