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For Mr Brown's expected arrival at No 10 this summer coincides with the announcement of the spending settlement for every Whitehall department for the next three years.

Most analysts think he will need to find an extra £15bn a year just to meet the existing commitments to procure new equipment and weapons systems. Improving conditions and pay of service personnel and increasing infantry strength to levels necessary to relieve the current overstretch could incur a similar bill.

Charles Heyman, editor of World Armies, says Britain's defence spending would have to rise to levels last seen at the end of the Cold War - around 3.5 per cent of gross domestic product - to meet all the current commitments.

Sums like these - which would require either tax increases or deep cuts elsewhere - are politically impossible. As Bill Kincaid, of the Royal United Services Institute, says: "The inexorable rise of defence equipment costs will inevitably make our equipment programme unaffordable in the near future. Something has to give - and soon."

Suddenly the future shape of Britain's defence budget is in question.

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The kit we can ditch
Today's armed forces were shaped by a review in 1998 that foresaw expeditionary forces sent to enforce an ethical foreign policy. But analysts worry that the commitments made to "big ticket" items, such as two new aircraft carriers with JSF fighters, are not worth the price. And previous procurement horrors such as three Astute submarines (already £1bn over budget) could be a tempting target for a Chancellor looking to make sums add up. It is thought Britain has ordered too many weapons systems and not enough intelligence capability to ensure the right targets are identified and hit.

The kit we must have
In the short term, military airlift, particularly using helicopters, is desperately needed. The shortage of trained crews to fly what craft exist is one of the clearest signs of the manpower gaps opening up after years of overstretch. To attract and retain the tens of thousands of specialists modern armed forces need will cost billions in increased funding over the coming years. An emerging 'radical' group of military thinkers believes it is time Britain significantly beefed up its number of soldiers to counter emerging threats. It is "boots on the ground", they say, not hi-tech kit, that will help keep Britain safe in the 21st century.

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