Some noise out of the Paris talks about the ceasefire to be respected . Maybe now they can get back to exchanging Borscht recipes , drinking Polish spirits and Vodka rather than exchanging unpleasantness.

Baltic states increasing defence budgets and requesting more NATO support…

One of the examples of Russian actions leading to exact the situation they complain about….

https://www.politico.eu/article/war-...-border-watch/




Russian disinformation campaign stepping up a gear….

https://www.politico.eu/article/russ...-kremlin-kyiv/

As Ukraine conflict heats up, so too does disinformation

Is Russian audience being prepared for justification of an attack?

Russia warns of NATO nuclear threat
The military bloc is training its members to unleash atomic hellfire, the Foreign Ministry claimed
https://www.rt.com/russia/547552-nat...clear-strikes/

Also, regarding nuclear threat:
US bombers make over 30 sorties near Union State borders every day — Lukashenko
MINSK, January 28. /TASS/. US strategic bombers carry out over 30 sorties near the border of the Union State of Russia and Belarus every day, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in his address to the Belarusian people and the parliament Friday.
"NATO forces converge near the border of the Union State. US strategic bombers’ sorties were intensified - over 30 sorties every day," Lukashenko said.
"The neighboring states are talking about deployment of nuclear weapons. Our Western neighbors - Poland, Lithuania - actively follow Washington’s policy course," the Belarusian leader said.
https://tass.com/defense/1394445

and the russian response
Russian nuclear submarines already on duty off US coasts
According to unconfirmed reports, one of the Russian submarines is located near the east coast of the United States, while the second one is off the west coast. Presumably, another Russian submarine could be staying in Arctic waters.
Tensions in the relationship between the United States and Russia are reaching a climax. Russia took measures to try to solve the crisis through diplomacy, but the United States prefers to turn to increasingly aggressive measures instead by building up NATO troops in Eastern Europe, closer to the Russian borders.
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...ar_submarines/

The TU-95's and TU-160's are prepared
Russia unexpectedly decided to use Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bomber aircraft to perform training missions and practice strikes against enemy forces.
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/russia/150115-tu_95/

The continuous talks of nuclear threat and responding to nuclear threat in Russian media is a bit alarming.

The question is, does the Russian public buy this BS? There are plenty of Russian ex-pats in Europe, Israel, the US etc who will be getting 'our' side of the story and presumably feeding it back to their relatives and friends there. Its not like the good ol' days when the USSR could keep a lid of what information their citizens had access to and could spin whatever yarn they wanted.

Smells a bit like a desperate attempt of Vlad&Co after he is currently achieving pretty much the opposite of what we wants and is demanding.
Two years ago NATO was close to collapsing. Now it is probably as attractive and stable as it ever was. Instead of NATO Troops moving out of Baltics, Poland, Bulgaria &Romania troops are moving in by the hundreds and thousands. While Trump was rather unsuccessful in getting defence budgets in the NATO countries increased, Vlad is doing this with ease. He would deserve a NATO medal of honour for particluar contribution in promoting NATO ;-)

True and he will trigger one of the bigger NATO wide campaigns to arm up, modernize, get the infrastructure ready and finally fully NATO-integrate the central eastern european NATO members, bringing back Poland in the process. The west european defence industry will love him for it. Finally the US will swing back to look at Europe as the biggest transatlantic political impact. And Northstream 2 will be mothballed.
Big question: What was it all meant to achieve?

Re-Arming Germany ? What could go wrong ?

???What exactly does re-arming mean? The German Armed Forces are among the biggest in Western Europe. At least quantitatively. Most Fighter Aircraft. Most MBT, AFV. Much less than during cold war but still slightly bigger than British and French Armed Forces in many areas.

Hitler‘s dead.

Isn’t serviceability an issue?

I wonder if the U.K. will think again about the Challenger MBT reductions and upgrade them all.

Keep what is left of BAOR.

Things not improving…

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashp...-leaders-warn/

Russia can now attack Ukraine with ‘very little warning,’ Pentagon leaders warn

https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...e-crises-loom/

US military readies to ‘walk and chew gum’ as multiple crises loom

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/u...rink-b5dsglg3l

Defence secretary warns that Russia ‘plans flood of kompromat’ to throw West off guard

Boris Johnson will tell President Putin to step back from the brink of conflict in a phone call next week as he prepares to bolster defences in eastern Europe. The prime minister will visit the region in the coming days as he seeks to spearhead diplomatic efforts to avert war in Ukraine and prepare a tough response if necessary.

The PM’s moves come as his defence secretary warned that Russia could release compromising or damaging information about western allies as part of a “multi-domain” operation launched around the invasion of Ukraine….

Earlier this week, Ben Wallace warned that “kompromat is in the tool box” as he discussed ways Russia could carry out attacks in the so-called grey zone area between peace and war.

Wallace referred to an incident in 2017 when a top aide to Emmanuel Macron accused Russia of trying to hack into his campaign’s computer systems and spreading disinformation about him via Kremlin-backed media. He said: “Their operations are multi-domain… I would expect anything like a Russian offensive would be accompanied in cyberspace in the same way as the physical… Kompromat is in the tool box.”

A senior defence source added: “We can expect Russia to deploy huge amounts of cyber attacks and Kompromat against the West.” Such methods could be deployed to “destabilise” the west, “knock us off our guard” and spread confusion as tens of thousands of troops and tanks invade the country, said a Whitehall source.

Western allies are also preparing for Russia to carry out “sub-threshold” attacks such as spreading disinformation, flooding social media sites with fake news, and generally stepping up its use of bots to try and divide the West.

Russia has a long history of using compromising material, or kompromat, as a weapon against political opponents or foreign diplomats. Straight from the old Soviet playbook, it has previously involved photographs and videos — real or fake. It is unclear what information Russia’s military and foreign intelligence agencies could be harvesting to use in the event of a conflict.

However, James Rogers, director of research at the Council on Geostrategy think tank, said that “with the Russians I wouldn’t take anything off the table”.

“This is something that was ongoing throughout the Cold War as well. It is what happens. They’re probably gathering information on all sorts of leaders, or even they will fabricate it and push it out, forcing everyone to respond. The drumbeat of this kind of thing will probably intensify over the next few days or weeks if they are going to make a move on Ukraine”, he said.

Earlier this week aviation experts spotted what appeared to be a deception operation involving fake signals that made it look like warplanes were taking off to attack Ukraine. Military aircraft radar transponders were apparently put on vehicles at four different airports in an apparent ruse to create confusion.

Large numbers of Russian military aircraft appeared on FlightRadar24 at airports in southwest Russia. The aircraft — numbering as many as 50 and using call signs in the series RA23131 — were circuiting around and along airfields, which is not a recognised manoeuvre. They stopped in an unusual formation.

A leading aviation expert said: “None of these serials apply to known aircraft tail numbers, unless Russian aircraft are now flying around with old transponders or scrambled hex codes.”

Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow on the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, said that deception and information operations had always been an “integral part of Russian planning for combat”. “Russia has embraced new technologies available for confusing and misleading their adversaries.…

As many here have anticipated, it has turned against Putin and his demands of NATO leaving eastern european partners: Romania is probably getting the base they are asking for, led by the French. Emphasizing the fact that Romania is asking for the base to shield from Russian threat vs Russian claims of US forcing these bases to threaten Russia.

https://m.dw.com/en/natos-on-notice-...ext/a-60594487

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinio...-40795392.html

As a side show to the main event.

Even France is now moving closer to NATO.

...until France doesn't get its own way....
plus ca change....

Sure they claim a special role but who wouldn't understand this better than the Brits?

Sobering thread…


…./ Hard for Westerners to understand and accept, but this means there is no brighter future to look forward to, there is no sunlit upland to get to after going through a rough patch with the Kremlin, the opposition is permanent, and the conflict is permanent, already now….

What, you mean like some sort of long term attrition (lets call it a 'Cold War'...) rather than a quick invasion?