What he said! You only have to look at the expected IPS numbers at 2005, SDSR 10 and the predicted one for 2020 for the MOD to have a (pretty legitimate) "wasn't out fault, blame the political system" get out of jail free card.

And of course in impacts on future VSOs - should you care about them!

If you want your future CAS to be (probably) a 3* by the time he's about 50 (sorry! or she!), if you track back through the ranks, even with not much more than 3 years in each rank, you finish up with a sqn ldr in their (note gender neutral pronoun) early 30s - just about when these guys are currently getting to their first squadron.....

.........but that assumes a future CAS will be a pilot......... (dons flak jacket)

I think one way to possibly address this would (in addition to fixing the training pipeline) be to introduce some form of a 'below the zone' promotion fix to remove the requirement of being 'above average' in the air prior to being considered by the board- maybe an acknowledgement that a junior 1st tourist pilot has the potential to become above average in the air?? However not sure this is a good idea as it makes the system even more subjective and I am pretty sure this may throw up other issues that could be open to challenge.

That's a dated perspective on age vs rank. Service to 60 changed things immediately, most notably in the wg cdr / gp capt bracket where ambitious new promotees are told to expect 6-7 years in rank (there is a 4-year minimum seniority requirement and still the 'command and staff' hoops to jump through. The best will manage it in 5 years but that's still much slower than your example). Then 1* is no longer the holding rank that it was in the old days; there's now expectation of 3ish years as a Force Commander or ACOS in posts which have assumed more responsibility since the Levene reforms. It's only after that that things can really speed up. The new CAS was a 3* for less than a year...

My sense is that 1* by 47-48ish is today's marker of potential. You're still right that the current crop of junior officers are going to struggle :-(

I'd wager we'll manage a CAS with 1000hrs TT in the not to distant future at this rate, for sure.

Another Jupiter
 

https://www.raf.mod.uk/our-organisat...opshire-skies/


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....95d708660.jpeg
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9f581fc52.jpeg

Last September we learnt, in the National Audit Office report, that there were 224 students on hold, waiting for a course.
Does anyone have any info on how this figure looks now, given that IOT was paused for several months and that pilot OASC boards stopped in March and won't resume until the new year.
Will this clear the backlog of 124 waiting for EFT?

Don’t forget you have to allow for time to recover from the operations

On promotion to Wing Cdr: Removal of heart
On promotion to Group Capt: Removal of spine
on promotion to 1 *: Removal of brain

Why does it have flot gear?

202 Sqn - MARITIME and mountain training

Pictured at Shawshank, but bound for SARTU (in old money) at Vallcatraz.

Both places marginally better than Cranditz! ;)

...And on removal of brain they get their mouth back! :)

But not any winching which is what 202 was supposed to be about. They might be doing some mountain flying but the system is still broken.

Actually, just maritime under Ascent's plans. But as we approach the two and a half year point, how many students have been trained in maritime skills?

The answer is a nice round number! 0

What is often forgotten is the crucial CRM and captaincy taught during the 202 phase. SARTU was placed before TACEX under the old system because the skills and experience learned were vital. The failure of the system (it is not all Ascent’s fault) to provide winching training is a disgrace.

It is common knowledge amongst MFTS staff that Ascent refused to listen to people who knew what the solution to rotary training should be. They thought they knew better than people who had been delivering the training for years. They had A Cat DHFS instructors literally screaming at them, telling them their solution would not work, and explaining precisely why. They unfortunately did not listen.
It would be very difficult to overstate the Culpability the Ascent Rotary management team have in creating this regrettable situation.
However...
The MOD have not helped. In fact they have served only to add to the fundamental flaws in Ascents plan by adding layer upon layer of ridiculous requirements that have never been needed before. The risk-averse attitude of the MOD and the DDH - far beyond anything seen under DHFS - have ensured that this crucial training has not happened

I believe should be a public enquiry into this disaster of a project. Ascent management and MOD both need to be held fully accountable for this needless waste of hundreds of millions of Pounds of taxpayers money.

Brain lobotomy looks very effective !!! see here if you are not squeamish