P8 procurement
 

So, following on from the momentous decision taken by the UK voting public on Thursday I offer up a few questions to ponder over:

Did MoD set the purchase price of the P8 at the time of the decision to make the procurement based on the dollar exchange rate at that time, or has the deal just become quite a bit more expensive.

With a projected dip in GDP over the short/medium term at least, is it now unaffordable or liable to be delayed/cancelled.

With the spectre of another Scottish referendum (and as far as I'm aware not a single turf has been cut at Lossiemouth yet) is the basing decision likely to the subject of a review.

I fear you have just highlighted on of the hundreds of uncertainties that will exist for the next decade, and the simple answer would be "we don't know" :)

Can we have it in service before we get our fishing waters back too?

don't forget the Scots will need those P8s to protect THEIR fishing grounds and THEIR oil platforms........

When it comes to contract pricing "Firm is Fixed, and Fixed is Variable".

Most major companies "hedge" currencies for such volatility - it's one of the excuses used by energy companies to explain why the retail price doesn't match the current wholesale price. I recall once in DE&S an urge to buy a large number of dollars as the ForEx was extremely favourable - I think we were prohibited from doing so. About a year later my PTL was in the queue outside a VSO's office with a price for some aircraft parts that had climbed by a couple of £100K due to currency fluctuations. When asked how it went he said "easy, the poor bas*ard in front of me was trying to explain the multi-£M spike in his Business Case to buy 4 LRIP F-35s.......". Yes, currency can have an effect.....

What is an LRIP F-35?

Is it the life-size plastic model?

LRIP Low Rate Initial Production, (development/test aircraft, that will need updating before IOC or FOC)

PFMG - you looking for a free ticket home? ;)

Base them at St Mawgan - time for some reserve flying :)

Never mind the P8 - its screwed my allowance rate in the US!!

I'd say that's about the level of the Brexit argument. I was pleased for Farage that he's 'got his country back'. I feel as though I've lost mine.

On the subject of the P-8, I was told that Fallon was to make the contract announcement the Thursday before last, and when he didn't that it was being held for Farnborough. Whether or not that now happens (along with the AH-64E contract, Protector UAV contract, further F-35 contracts, etc..) is anybody's guess, though none of that seems all that important anymore, IMHO.

Interesting times indeed.

Why? Go on, please explain why the UK's military requirements have suddenly changed. Or do you want to carry on spouting more drivel?

S-D

Which part - the contracts maybe not being announced, or it no longer mattering?

If the former, it is because platforms such as the P-8, F-35, Protector, AH-64E etc, are procured in dollars, and with the pound taking a tumble it is doubtful that the SDSR is still affordable (if it ever was). Also, the planning assumptions contained within the review are now up in the air - there might not even be a UK for long, after this.

If the latter, that was more of a personal sentiment - I find it hard to care too much about such matters right now, given the magnitude of what's just happened.

Why the hostility? You won, didn't you?

Any chance we could just stick to P8 matters in this thread as per the title. While the politics may/may not affect the contract/basing etc, endlessly repeating the same arguments on here will change that not one jot. I'm sure there must be another thread for "we wuz robbed / we are saved" referendum stuff?

The issue is that the economic future has changed dramtically - right now no-one knows by how much or in which direction and we probably won't be certain for 3-4 years

What we DO know is that the £-$ exchange rate has gone south significantly - this obviuosly impacts on what we can buy from the USA - unless Mr Boeing is willing to bet that the £ will be back at $ 1.50 when it comes to delivery......................

Here is the view of the RAeS ... See the 'Military Outlook' part of the article.

Royal Aeronautical Society | Insight Blog | Brexit - UK takes off for a unknown destination

Thanks for all the contributions. In between the soul searching, blame and general re-run of last Thurday's events some replies actually discussed the issues I raised. I suppose the former is only to be expected and certainly every crew room I've been in since Friday is a lot more politically charged than ever before.

With respect to basing options either:

The MoD will continue with Lossie hoping that the investment will be yet another reason for Wee Jimmy Crankie to fail in her latest attempt to break up the UK

Or it will not call her bluff and risk having to move the infrastructure down south in a couple of years and so opt for a less risky option (Waddo)

The lack of tangible P8 prep (sim building, Sqn accom, etc) is somewhat worrying and gives raise to doubt that the Govt is fully committed.

Brilliant!

If in doubt, wonder if Waddo could accomodate the Poseidon fleet plus support or at least provide the support, sim, etc seemingly as Boeing and AAR et al are at Waddo already in support of Sentry and Airseeker?

cheers

Alternatively Newquay Airport is rather underused, I believe that Cornwall Council is struggling with the funding of it, there's plenty of space at the RAF St Mawgan part the MOD still owns, so how about a shared mil/ civil basing solution?

Following the reasonable appeals to stay on topic, this article may have more pertinence:

No Type 26 frigate deal unless it is 'value for money' - BBC News

It seems to me to be to soon to be making any "brexit adjustments" to budgetary spend at the moment (in regard of defence, or anythng else) but clearly everything is on table and in play in these troubled times.

How far are we down the line with the P8 contract...have we reached a stage where pulling out would cost us penalty payments?