Today's Flight points out that there have been a number of accidents recently involving national display teams.........................

Flight may have pointed out the incidents involving other display teams, however this is about the Reds and their very impressive safety record.

I could compare Greek and British driving standards, we're all part of the EU (presently) and we drive the same mix of cars, however would you ever suggest that Greek roads are safer?

My point is statistically, the Reds are less likely to have an accident wherever they perform, comparisons and most definitely conclusions drawn from Shoreham do not take into account all the metrics.

3 serious accidents in the last 5 years with 2 pilots and 2 aircraft lost isn't the best safety record.

Be interesting to see what happens up this neck of the woods with Blackpool and Southport airshows, although both are over the sea in the main a lot of the turning is done over residential areas. I've been caught out more than once while trying to take pics from the extension roof by a bright red Hawk sneaking up behind me....and going directly over the house at low level!
Blackpool same, they seem to be on a level with the water tower at Warbreck as they turn.
Guess they'll have to amend the display to stay to seaward.

I think you'll be just fine!

And how many were during actual close formation in displays?

ie, has removing the display portion and just doing a flypast removed that risk in any way?

This may be a first, but I think tuc may be correct.

No Tourist, it doesn't remove the risk but it does reduce it. That's the point!

Minehead and Whitby displays by Reds now also cancelled and they are both over water?

Tourist, again i agree but suggest it is Media Ops with, as you say What a Way to run a War Machine.

But Cleethorpes is going ahead. Just hope they get the display line sorted. A couple of years ago we watched a great display (not Reds) but we were 2 miles south of the display centre :)

I've just seen this thread and haven't had the time to read through to see if the point has already been made, but here goes. It struck me back in August last year that the remedy for Shoreham was to ensure that all future airshows, where possible,take place over big enough airfields; i.e. Waddington, Scampton, Fairford, Leuchars, Yeovilton, Culdrose, all these places have the airfield space with sufficiently low infrastructure in the area around the airfields/display areas themselves. I've often wondered but had an idea why the Red Arrows have never given a full display at Shoreham, just looking around the area tells you all you need to know. I've also wondered when the organisers of Farnborough will eventually accept the situation today and plan to move the event somewhere else; i.e. Boscombe Down?

Of course it comes as no surprise to read that the official remedy to the incident at Shoreham is the Bottom Line as always. Pay more money to those who's permission is required and all problems solved. Result, further restrictions, higher gate prices, more faffing about i.e. tickets (including carpark tickets, charged separately in some cases now) in advance only, fewer events, some have already been lost due to the heftier levies imposed, and, of course, much reduced quality, and eroded interest. God help us from Bureaucrats.

FB:)

FB, I'm not aware of any UK airfield big enough for the Red Arrows to do a full display over.

The dynamic nature of the display involves moves with a large turn radius and high speed passes. That's never going to be contained inside the footprint of an airfield.

Certainly Culdrose, Yeovs, and Fairford unavoidably involve flying over plenty of houses even in the rather less zippy things I have displayed at them.

It's not the size of the area it's what's in it. Airfields or display venues are now required to present a catchment area within which the display item will be required to strut its stuff. If the participating item cannot comply due to difficulties circumnavigating obstructions etc within that arena then that participant will probably decline the offer to attend. Or the organiser will refuse entry.
It's a direct fallout from Shoreham. It's all about lawyers wanting their pound of flesh when the wheel comes off. Forget the CAA and the AAIB - think lawyers, law suits, writs, compensation, reputation. Write your risk assessment but make sure it really has reduced it to ALARP when the crunch comes buddy!

Thanks Thomas, that was the point I was actually making, the airfields themselves are much larger than Shoreham to start with, but the local environs aren't as built up. No likely venue is free of surrounding infrastructure, but there is less likelihood of the Shoreham incident having the same tragic impact at any one of the places I've mentioned. If the same incident occurred at any of them, in relation to the centre of the runway, the most likely outcome would be a gouge in the grass on the field.

FB:)

FB or air show goers departing early on the roads
I think often the Reds are a signal to leave and watch from the car.

tuc:-
Like Tourist, I think that tuc has a valid point. A broken UK airworthiness system causes the entire Air Cadets fleet of gliders and powered gliders to be grounded for over two years and counting, yet the same broken system leads to the Reds' Hawk MB Mk 10 seat killing its pilot, and investigation reveals that it had no Safety Case and was thus by definition unairworthy. Unlike the Air Cadets, the Reds go on flying although in a more restricted way. Both fleets are non-operational and PR orientated, but when found to be unairworthy they are treated in different ways. Could it be that there is much crossing of fingers going on here?

Their flat display at Cosford due to weather wasn't half bad , I take it that is what they would intend to be doing at Farnborough.


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melmothtw, on the contrary; one aircraft loss in 4,700 public displays is excellent and possibly the best safety record of any of the national teams.

And with regard to Culdrose, there is a cottage hospital almost directly below the display line, so I do wonder how much longer the air show there wil continue now.

No display of any sort at Farnborough, Nutloose - flypasts with other aircraft types only.

Au contraire yourself Martin, 3 serious accidents in the last 5 years with 2 pilots and 2 aircraft lost. Name me a national aerobatic display team with a worse record.

Not to mention the Synchro midair in Greece or the air test aircraft that was parked up by ATC at the end of an air test.

Try looking up the Thunderbirds' accident record, while the Blue Angels have a 10% fatality rate.

My god, this is pathetic.

You are talking yourselves into believing that the loss of the Red arrows is a good idea for health and safety reasons!!

For at least the last decade there have been threads about losing the reds due to cost etc etc and the get defended to the hilt.

Suddenly, people have decided that they are a serious risk to life and limb and must be stopped......

All this talk about displays being cancelled etc, brings up the other question, how many displays, or indeed flypasts a year are necessary for the continued investment in the Red Arrows to be considered worth it?

Not me Tourist. The only reason I brought up the loss rate was to counter an earlier claim (can't remember who made it) that suggested that the Reds were so safe as to negate any risk.

Personally I love watching the Reds, and the 'danger' (real or perceived) certainly adds to the excitement. The only difference between our two standpoints appears to be that I can see why the MoD no longer thinks it is a good idea to performing such routines above populated towns, while you do not.

the reds are definitely on short finals. The pressure is mounting about running costs and public image and CAA resterictions and where we are in society. They are a magnificent testimony to our patriotic bias ....but......can we afford it any longer.

I'll give them another 2 or 3 years and "boom" they're gone.

I don't think it's going to take three years.

Sadly I tend to agree, it's sort of another nail in their coffin, we do not really build many Hawks for oversees sales these days, so they really are no longer a sales ambassadors for that product.
Coupled with the changes in the Airshow circuit with more and more shows being cancelled and the front line force being decimated on cost grounds, one does wonder how long they can justify their existence on a diminishing budget.
One does wonder if the political fallout of disbanding them is one reason they still exist, if a choice came down to the Reds or the BBMF, one thinks the BBMF would be the survivor, though the RNHF has shown that they can operate as an independent team, free from the military purse strings, so possibly the BBMF could do the same.

Amazing then that the powers that be have lifed the Hawk T1 for a considerable time to come in order to keep the Reds flying.

If they weren't chopped after the awful spell in 2011 then I'd suggest they're safe for a while yet.

BV

I wonder if they used the initial showing at Cosford to practice for their flypast at Farnborough, I must admit it was pretty much a none event and took no notice of it after it arrived.

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No airfield or possible venue is free of surrounding infrastructure Martin, my point is that there are limits. Shoreham is very small and surrounded by things such as a dual carriageway and a tall church with a spire then houses either side, the problem is just how much there is to avoid and at what proximity to the runway, I'm no display pilot but would have thought that all rest with the amount of roads and buildings versus the amount of open field and airfield over which there is room to manoeuvre. I've thought for a long time that Farnborough and Biggin Hill were events that could be staged elsewhere, if only to avoid the air traffic overhead. Culdrose, I would have thought, was safe enough, within reason.

FB:)

Well, for what it's worth and as a local, it's been abnormally quiet around Scampton this week.