On the bucket of sunshine issue, I wonder if a low yield, airburst in a low population area or even a depopulated area after warning, might have had a salutary effect by showing resolve.

I am not limiting this to the current situation but say Korea, Vietnam, Iran, Iraq, Libya etc. May just one bomb in previous situations might have worked for years after and saved lots of lives.

Or would the Genie have been let loose?

Back in 1964 the sudden appearance of four Vulcans sitting at Khormaksar apparently coincided with a drop in activity. Deployment of Valiants might ha bbc e had a similar effect with Kuwait in 61.

When one makes a demonstration, the enemy is not required to react as one hopes or expects. With that in mind, I suggest that the idea
isn't a very good one.

I think that the collateral political damage/downside would be non trivial, and the political push back from players and parties all over the globe non-linear as compared to the input: the proposed demonstration.

Let's park that one in the "can't sell it" box and look for some other ideas.

Just speculating; it did work once.

Personally I think it is too late now. It is morally indefensible now but had it been used in Korea, thus demonstrating willingness, it might have stopped other conflicts dead from a deterrence perspective.

AFPThursday, 19 November 2015

France urged the U.N. Security Council on Thursday to authorize countries to “take all necessary measures” to fight ISIS after the jihadists claimed responsibility for the Paris attacks. A draft resolution presented to the 15-member council called on U.N. member states to “redouble and coordinate their efforts to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by ISIL” and groups linked to Al-Qaeda......

“The exceptional and unprecedented threat posed by this group to the entire international community requires a strong, united and unambiguous response from the Security Council,” French Ambassador Francois Delattre said. “This is the goal of our draft resolution, which calls on all member states to take all necessary measures to fight Daesh (ISIS).”

Delattre said he was seeking rapid approval of the draft resolution that was “put in blue” -- a U.N. term designating that a final version is ready for a vote at the Security Council.

France’s bid for U.N. backing came after Russia submitted a revised text of a separate draft resolution that calls for fighting the ISIS group with Syria’s consent. That draft has been rejected by the United States, Britain and France, which are refusing to cooperate with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, whom they accuse of fomenting extremism by resorting to brutality.

The French draft resolution does not provide any legal basis for military action and does not invoke chapter seven of the U.N. charter that authorizes the use of force. French diplomats maintain though that it will provide important international political support to the anti-ISIS campaign that has been ramped up since the attacks in Paris on Friday that left 129 dead.

The French draft text describes ISIS as a “global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security” and said sanctions would soon be imposed against ISIS leaders and supporters. The text “unequivocally condemns in the strongest terms the horrifying terrorist attacks” by ISIS in Paris and Beirut, and also mentions violence in Tunisia, Turkey and Egypt this year.........

We forget that the has been numerous hit and run raids against purely civilian targets in England by the Luftwaffe before the raid on Berlin; they were just not as concentrated and therefore garner little attention. In other words "they started it". See Richard Overy's BoB pocket book. A damn good read.

Junkies.
 

No surprise to me they were rounded up quickly,correct me if I am wrong but what we seemed to have here are a bunch of drug taking,Internet junkies,mobile phone ranters who think they are geniuses for crossing open bordered countries.Anyways The House of Saud are the ones pulling the strings.
Al.

Wuh, do you have a date? Sources suggest Jul 40 ie after Freiburg.

Found this

Nuke them?
Do you know how much paperwork that would raise, the risk assessment and health and safety protocols alone would make the Encyclopedia Brittanica look like a short story.

A better option could be to deploy the French Foreign Legion......or the Gurkhas....

Obviously no nukes... What about dropping a fuel air bomb on them, and immediately (all governments) spinning reports from Syria that a massive suicide bomb has exploded possibly whilst being assembled for road transport? Works for me.

CG

Spiral.
 

In mathematics, a spiral is a curve which emanates from a central point, getting progressively farther away as it revolves around the point. (wiki)


In my mind recently I've been comparing ideas about a theory I have about warfare, fighting.
That it is incredibly difficult to finalize, to halt -rather like the spiral (but it can be done). And it can extend and grow like a logarithm spiral in proportion to the time it evolves through. Spirals seem common in nature, much more than I ever realized.


In some of your feedback I wonder if the start of a particular (air) battle evolves in the same way? The 1940 RAF Berlin air raid being relatively very small, but it then led directly to the Blitz, which led to Cologne in 1942, Hamburg in 1943 and Dresden in 1945 (with more bombs dropped in year 1945 than all the previous together).


Or Taranto in 1940, to the Afrika Korp involvement in 1941, Malta and Pedestal in 1942, American involvement in late 1942 with (El Alamein) again generally increasing.


I could go on a little more but wont. Its only a theory. I'm sure you are familiar with it.


Where are we now, in November 2015, in the battle against ISIS? Don't say you are lost with my theory.
With Cameron I would say absolutely desperate to involve the RAF, with Russian involvement and their destroyed airliner, a massive Paris massacre, a Mali potential massacre today but with heavy loss of life, from my selfish western view, are we in a spiral of violence? To me, it seems clear that we are (compared to other on-going conflicts in the world today).
How will air warfare end it, this war? Can it be ended as suddenly as say, WW2 (both theatres)? Many wars do seem to end suddenly and dramatically after a prolonged and violent spiral. A violent, horrendously destructive collapse suffered by one side.
But where will we, the UK that is,enter the spiral and what will be the outcome of that?
HS.

PN,

Since when did the Germans need a justification to bomb cities in the 30s/40s?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Guernica

and

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotterdam_Blitz

Biggus, different war, different rules, and they did use Freiburg as a casus belli.

Rotterdam wasn't a different war.

This was also well before Freiburg,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombin...n_World_War_II

Not an authorisation, as such, but with the governments in Baghdad and Damascus approving, it gives all the authorisation and international approval needed....

UN Approves Resolution Urging Action Against Islamic State

The U.N. Security Council unanimously approved a French-sponsored resolution Friday calling on all nations to redouble and coordinate action to prevent further attacks by Islamic State terrorists and other extremist groups. The resolution says the Islamic State group "constitutes a global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security" and expresses the council's determination "to combat by all means this unprecedented threat."

The measure is the 14th terrorism-related resolution adopted by the U.N.'s most powerful body since 1999. It was adopted a week after violent extremists launched a coordinated gun and bomb assault that killed 130 people in Paris which the Islamic State claims it carried out. It also comes eight days after twin suicide bombings in Beirut killed 43 people, and three weeks after a Russian airliner crashed over Egypt's Sinai peninsula killing all 224 people on board — both attacks also claimed by IS.

The resolution "unequivocally condemns in the strongest terms" these and earlier "horrifying terrorist attacks" carried out by the Islamic State this year in Sousse, Tunisia and Ankara, Turkey. The resolution calls on U.N. member states "that have the capacity to do so to take all necessary measures" against the Islamic State group and all other violent extremist groups "to eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Iraq and Syria."

This does not constitute an authorization for military action, however, because the resolution is not drafted under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter which is the only way the United Nations can give a green light to the use of force...............

Britain poised for Syria air strikes after Labour revolt against Jeremy Corbyn

Up to 60 Labour MPs could back military intervention in Syria in defiance of Jeremy Corbyn on the basis of a UN resolution calling for "combat by all means" to be used to wipe out Isil

Britain is poised to join air strikes against Isil in Syria after senior Labour MPs publicly defied Jeremy Corbyn and pledged cross-party support for international action in the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks.

Hilary Benn, the shadow foreign secretary, welcomed a UN security council resolution - poised to be passed tonight- calling for "combat by all means" to be used to wipe out Isil.

Labour insiders said that the resolution is likely to be enough to convince as many as 60 Labour MPs of the need to extend RAF air strikes to Syria - something which would boost David Cameron's chances of passing a vote in the Commons. Shadow cabinet ministers say that military intervention is even more likely after the party's own legal advice suggested that there is a "sound basis" for air strikes even without the UN approval..........

I have Freiburg 10 May, 12 May Bomber Command, Rotterdam 14th.

But we digress.

Clearly you feel strongly that we should be bombing Syria, ORAC, and believe we should have done so in 2013, although this time against the other side. There's been a lot of bombing on both sides of the Syria/Iraq border for some time without it dealing a knockout blow to IS. You make the valid point that it's illogical to bomb just one side of a border not recognised by our enemy. But even the most optimistic judgement of the effect of the Commons vote you want so badly hardly leads to a decisive victory. There's been little word from our leaders on how this will be achieved. Perhaps you'd share your thoughts?

ORAC.
I remember you were a passionate advocate of the invasion of Iraq, at the time when many were agin it.

These things are easier to start, than they are to finish.

Easier to get into, than they are to get out of.

Still, I know you believe a terrorist is a someone with a bomb, but without an Air Force.

I'm actually agnostic on it, if that's an appropriate term. It just seems farcical that we are bombing ISIS on one side of a line we originally drew in the sand but can't bomb on the other - even if the putative national government concurs.

The Americans, Russians and French seem more than capable and the additional effort we could supply seems nugatory.

Being slightly cynical, I doubt wether they were given any options, and the grenades may have been delivered. More the Russians doing some house cleaning and sealing their southern border.

IIRC the area has been a regular supply and transit route for those wishing to join any of the various islamic military groups. I think they'll now find the door hermetically sealed.....

Sky News: IS-Linked Militants 'Neutralised' In Russia
Russia's counter-terrorism agency reportedly kills 11 extremists as Moscow calls for greater co-operation in the fight against IS.
11:56, UK, Sunday 22 November 2015

Eleven militants who had sworn allegiance to Islamic State have been "neutralised" in a special operation in a southern Russian republic, according to reports.

The operation took place in a wooded area outside the city of Nalchik in the Kabardino-Balkaria region, which lies within Russia's volatile North Caucuses region, the news agency AFP reported, citing the TASS news agency.

The fighters opened fire on law enforcement officials and threw grenades after they were cornered, TASS quoted a statement from Russia's national anti-terrorism committee as saying.

"They were all members of armed groups that had sworn allegiance to the international terrorist organisation ISIL," the committee said.

Islamists in the predominately Muslim North Caucuses have been flocking to join Islamic State since it declared a wilayaat, or province, in the region.......

"Agnostic on the subject.." Well put ORAC; that exactly expresses my feelings too, in which case I was wrong to direct my question personally to you. But it would be nice to hear from the "lets bomb" lobby about what exactly they'd bomb and how it would lead to victory. There's just a hint that some here just want to hear a lot of bangs going off!

How to defeat IsIs

Answers have divided roughly in to 2 distinct camps.

Firstly those (experts) who support a military solution and secondly those (experts) who say that this will play in to the hands of the baddies and suggest a long term hearts and minds campaign.

The second solution,whilst of laudable intent will just take too long. How many more atrocities could the West take without actually be seen to do something?

My solution is to do both at the same time and both with maximum effort.

Militarily assemble a Russian,American,NATO alliance teamed up with with as many Arab nations as possible and attack the main bases and supply lines with maximum strength.Surely the ISIS main power bases could be defeated in days rather than weeks?

As part of the bargain Russia should force Assad to stand down in a sensible time scale and allow safe havens,no fly zones and refugee areas to be constructed. Hopefully the millions of refugees in Europe would then have somewhere reasonable to return to and restart their lives at home.

Before standing down this force should deploy to other 'trouble' areas i/e Yeman.

Who knows a spinoff might be a new 'entente cordiale 'with Russia which could lead to solutions in the Ukraine and elsewhere??

At the same time the hearts and minds campaign should be pursued with maximum effort with moderate Muslims taking a leading conciliatory role.This would require a worldwide fund of billions and endless talks - America taking a more balanced stance on The Israel , Palestine situation would certainly help.




Sent from my iPad

This thread has ran out of steam now. Its only 10 days ago. Horrific to think about. I think the French people have been very dignified in their response, and brave as well. Not crushed either. I always liked the French, deep down. Diffident and cool but also thoughtful,kind and engaging people.
And so the world spins on to the next event.

Whether the thread has run out of steam or not, the events that Paris triggered have only just begun. Call me Dave thinks that the answer is to turn the Tornados loose in Syria, job done.

Paddy Ashdown was on R4 this morning and suggested that our attention be diverted to the Gulf States and in particular Saudi Arabia, and that it would be more appropriate to encourage/oblige them to take the above action and also to stop financing international jihadism. I hate to suggest it, but he has a point, hasn't he?

He absolutely has a point. This comes back to the question of economics versus morals - the economic benefits of our relations with Saudi Arabia versus the moral costs of tolerating the message of intolerance that emerges from within it. The response to the SU-24 shoot-down this morning will be very interesting as you can argue that Erdogan's Turkey is another side of the same coin. I am probably not alone in thinking that our long-term interests align better with Russia than with the Sunni Muslim states - but admitting so would pose terribly difficult questions over Ukraine, etc, and would require tacit acceptance that Wahhabi Islam was at the root of the problem. Not very PC.

When you consider the complexity of the dilemma, you begin to see that the expedient solution is to bomb ISIL in to non-existence and defer the long-term resolution of the salafi-jihadist problem for another few years...

The whole business of Saudi/UAE support for jihadists is straight politics - they're s*** scared of Iran and their own Sunni popluation

Just why we intend to get into a snake pit where everyone else has a dozen agendas is beyond me...................

HH,

Just to correct you slightly, the UAE government does not support jihadists, or indeed Islamists of any flavour. Even the Muslim Brotherhood is banned there; it is one of the most aggressively secular governments in the region. I think I read somewhere that the UAE government has been piling pressure on the UK to publish last year's Jenkins Report into the activities of the Muslim Brotherhood in the West.

A good case study of the 'sides' we are dealing with is Libya, where Egypt and the UAE are backing secular forces while Qatar and Turkey back the Islamists. Picking out the Saudi involvement can be tricky because their government line can stray towards the secular, even while the private money and clerical hierarchy backs the religious.

It is indeed a snake pit! I think you can simplify matters when you reflect on who our traditional allies in the region are - Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, Oman. Funnily enough, the ones that enjoyed British protection after the fall of the Ottoman Empire. Anyone who thinks the Saudis are our allies does not know their history.

HH:-
And me too, if it's of any consolation. All these heavily armed jihadist outfits; Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, ISIS, and half a hundred others, are all proxies of those in Saudi Arabia and certain other Gulf countries that are united in their religious fanaticism and hatred of the unbelievers.

If we are prepared to attempt to interdict the ISIS income stream, be they fuel convoys or whatever, wouldn't it be more logical to go to the root of those streams, ie the wealth of the Gulf States which is oil based? Unless and until we are prepared to do that (via a UN authorised trade embargo?) we are merely sniping at the edges, and there will be even more attacks on cities, air transport, and anything else that they choose. The governments of these states might well be held in thrall to these extremists, but they should be forced to choose between responsible governance or overseeing a rogue state. If the latter they should be isolated like N Korea, South Africa (as was) and Myanmar (as was), until they in turn become an (as was)..

Filling up at the pumps may seem cheaper than it was, but in reality the cost is becoming totally unacceptable.

Whatever happened was not good and I have sympathies for the family member of the victims.

God will give peace to all of them!
R.I.P.

Historical perspective on terrorism victims in Europe (blue bars). It actually used to be much worse.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUW6HcgVEAA39H0.jpg