On the bucket of sunshine issue, I wonder if a low yield, airburst in a low population area or even a depopulated area after warning, might have had a salutary effect by showing resolve.

I am not limiting this to the current situation but say Korea, Vietnam, Iran, Iraq, Libya etc. May just one bomb in previous situations might have worked for years after and saved lots of lives.

Or would the Genie have been let loose?

Back in 1964 the sudden appearance of four Vulcans sitting at Khormaksar apparently coincided with a drop in activity. Deployment of Valiants might ha bbc e had a similar effect with Kuwait in 61.

When one makes a demonstration, the enemy is not required to react as one hopes or expects. With that in mind, I suggest that the idea
isn't a very good one.

I think that the collateral political damage/downside would be non trivial, and the political push back from players and parties all over the globe non-linear as compared to the input: the proposed demonstration.

Let's park that one in the "can't sell it" box and look for some other ideas.

Just speculating; it did work once.

Personally I think it is too late now. It is morally indefensible now but had it been used in Korea, thus demonstrating willingness, it might have stopped other conflicts dead from a deterrence perspective.

AFPThursday, 19 November 2015

France urged the U.N. Security Council on Thursday to authorize countries to “take all necessary measures” to fight ISIS after the jihadists claimed responsibility for the Paris attacks. A draft resolution presented to the 15-member council called on U.N. member states to “redouble and coordinate their efforts to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by ISIL” and groups linked to Al-Qaeda......

“The exceptional and unprecedented threat posed by this group to the entire international community requires a strong, united and unambiguous response from the Security Council,” French Ambassador Francois Delattre said. “This is the goal of our draft resolution, which calls on all member states to take all necessary measures to fight Daesh (ISIS).”

Delattre said he was seeking rapid approval of the draft resolution that was “put in blue” -- a U.N. term designating that a final version is ready for a vote at the Security Council.

France’s bid for U.N. backing came after Russia submitted a revised text of a separate draft resolution that calls for fighting the ISIS group with Syria’s consent. That draft has been rejected by the United States, Britain and France, which are refusing to cooperate with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, whom they accuse of fomenting extremism by resorting to brutality.

The French draft resolution does not provide any legal basis for military action and does not invoke chapter seven of the U.N. charter that authorizes the use of force. French diplomats maintain though that it will provide important international political support to the anti-ISIS campaign that has been ramped up since the attacks in Paris on Friday that left 129 dead.

The French draft text describes ISIS as a “global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security” and said sanctions would soon be imposed against ISIS leaders and supporters. The text “unequivocally condemns in the strongest terms the horrifying terrorist attacks” by ISIS in Paris and Beirut, and also mentions violence in Tunisia, Turkey and Egypt this year.........

We forget that the has been numerous hit and run raids against purely civilian targets in England by the Luftwaffe before the raid on Berlin; they were just not as concentrated and therefore garner little attention. In other words "they started it". See Richard Overy's BoB pocket book. A damn good read.

Junkies.
 

No surprise to me they were rounded up quickly,correct me if I am wrong but what we seemed to have here are a bunch of drug taking,Internet junkies,mobile phone ranters who think they are geniuses for crossing open bordered countries.Anyways The House of Saud are the ones pulling the strings.
Al.

Wuh, do you have a date? Sources suggest Jul 40 ie after Freiburg.

Found this

Nuke them?
Do you know how much paperwork that would raise, the risk assessment and health and safety protocols alone would make the Encyclopedia Brittanica look like a short story.

A better option could be to deploy the French Foreign Legion......or the Gurkhas....

Obviously no nukes... What about dropping a fuel air bomb on them, and immediately (all governments) spinning reports from Syria that a massive suicide bomb has exploded possibly whilst being assembled for road transport? Works for me.

CG

Spiral.
 

In mathematics, a spiral is a curve which emanates from a central point, getting progressively farther away as it revolves around the point. (wiki)


In my mind recently I've been comparing ideas about a theory I have about warfare, fighting.
That it is incredibly difficult to finalize, to halt -rather like the spiral (but it can be done). And it can extend and grow like a logarithm spiral in proportion to the time it evolves through. Spirals seem common in nature, much more than I ever realized.


In some of your feedback I wonder if the start of a particular (air) battle evolves in the same way? The 1940 RAF Berlin air raid being relatively very small, but it then led directly to the Blitz, which led to Cologne in 1942, Hamburg in 1943 and Dresden in 1945 (with more bombs dropped in year 1945 than all the previous together).


Or Taranto in 1940, to the Afrika Korp involvement in 1941, Malta and Pedestal in 1942, American involvement in late 1942 with (El Alamein) again generally increasing.


I could go on a little more but wont. Its only a theory. I'm sure you are familiar with it.


Where are we now, in November 2015, in the battle against ISIS? Don't say you are lost with my theory.
With Cameron I would say absolutely desperate to involve the RAF, with Russian involvement and their destroyed airliner, a massive Paris massacre, a Mali potential massacre today but with heavy loss of life, from my selfish western view, are we in a spiral of violence? To me, it seems clear that we are (compared to other on-going conflicts in the world today).
How will air warfare end it, this war? Can it be ended as suddenly as say, WW2 (both theatres)? Many wars do seem to end suddenly and dramatically after a prolonged and violent spiral. A violent, horrendously destructive collapse suffered by one side.
But where will we, the UK that is,enter the spiral and what will be the outcome of that?
HS.

PN,

Since when did the Germans need a justification to bomb cities in the 30s/40s?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Guernica

and

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotterdam_Blitz

Biggus, different war, different rules, and they did use Freiburg as a casus belli.

Rotterdam wasn't a different war.

This was also well before Freiburg,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombin...n_World_War_II

Not an authorisation, as such, but with the governments in Baghdad and Damascus approving, it gives all the authorisation and international approval needed....

UN Approves Resolution Urging Action Against Islamic State

The U.N. Security Council unanimously approved a French-sponsored resolution Friday calling on all nations to redouble and coordinate action to prevent further attacks by Islamic State terrorists and other extremist groups. The resolution says the Islamic State group "constitutes a global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security" and expresses the council's determination "to combat by all means this unprecedented threat."

The measure is the 14th terrorism-related resolution adopted by the U.N.'s most powerful body since 1999. It was adopted a week after violent extremists launched a coordinated gun and bomb assault that killed 130 people in Paris which the Islamic State claims it carried out. It also comes eight days after twin suicide bombings in Beirut killed 43 people, and three weeks after a Russian airliner crashed over Egypt's Sinai peninsula killing all 224 people on board — both attacks also claimed by IS.

The resolution "unequivocally condemns in the strongest terms" these and earlier "horrifying terrorist attacks" carried out by the Islamic State this year in Sousse, Tunisia and Ankara, Turkey. The resolution calls on U.N. member states "that have the capacity to do so to take all necessary measures" against the Islamic State group and all other violent extremist groups "to eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Iraq and Syria."

This does not constitute an authorization for military action, however, because the resolution is not drafted under Chapter 7 of the U.N. Charter which is the only way the United Nations can give a green light to the use of force...............

Britain poised for Syria air strikes after Labour revolt against Jeremy Corbyn

Up to 60 Labour MPs could back military intervention in Syria in defiance of Jeremy Corbyn on the basis of a UN resolution calling for "combat by all means" to be used to wipe out Isil

Britain is poised to join air strikes against Isil in Syria after senior Labour MPs publicly defied Jeremy Corbyn and pledged cross-party support for international action in the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks.

Hilary Benn, the shadow foreign secretary, welcomed a UN security council resolution - poised to be passed tonight- calling for "combat by all means" to be used to wipe out Isil.

Labour insiders said that the resolution is likely to be enough to convince as many as 60 Labour MPs of the need to extend RAF air strikes to Syria - something which would boost David Cameron's chances of passing a vote in the Commons. Shadow cabinet ministers say that military intervention is even more likely after the party's own legal advice suggested that there is a "sound basis" for air strikes even without the UN approval..........

I have Freiburg 10 May, 12 May Bomber Command, Rotterdam 14th.

But we digress.

Clearly you feel strongly that we should be bombing Syria, ORAC, and believe we should have done so in 2013, although this time against the other side. There's been a lot of bombing on both sides of the Syria/Iraq border for some time without it dealing a knockout blow to IS. You make the valid point that it's illogical to bomb just one side of a border not recognised by our enemy. But even the most optimistic judgement of the effect of the Commons vote you want so badly hardly leads to a decisive victory. There's been little word from our leaders on how this will be achieved. Perhaps you'd share your thoughts?

ORAC.
I remember you were a passionate advocate of the invasion of Iraq, at the time when many were agin it.

These things are easier to start, than they are to finish.

Easier to get into, than they are to get out of.

Still, I know you believe a terrorist is a someone with a bomb, but without an Air Force.