Not news any more.
 

This story was reported at about 17.23 on the BBC Radio 4's PM this evening.
It isn't the right sort of news any more, its just something happening a long way away. 99% of Britons simply don't care about this story, only daft old men on here seem to.
True and not sad. Putins got a free crack at this - he knows it and so do the sheep.

Absolutely right, Hangarshuffle. The same proportion of UK voters are as concerned about Ukraine as were concerned about Czechoslovakia in 1938, and that went well....

Honest Question: What would it have changed?
Or more directly: Hadn't the cuts taken place, what would be the strategy in this case?

When you send your stuff there you need to be prepared to use it. With all consequences. Read: If it comes to it, turning the Blue Planet into the Brown Planet.
Does that Sound like a good and measured idea?

Don't get me wrong.
I'm not supporting what the Russians are doing. At all.
Having made the Security 'Guarantee' was a mistake when you can't/won't enforce it, read: being ready to pay the full price. I do feel sorry for the Ukrainian People that they were mislead back then.
But unfortunately I don't see a military Option that does not involve the ultimate risk of terminating Mankind. Or it is completely meaningless. Show Of(f) Force.
Not much in between.

To put the Military aspect a bit in perspective it has to be noted that:
Even after all the Western cuts Russia is no match for the NATO regarding conventional weapons. Its usable Fighter Aircraft Fleet is roughly on the Level of the combined European Air Forces excluding Turkey.
When you count in Turkey and the US, the Russian Force is roughly 1/3rd of it. And that's on paper. Usable and up-to-date in reality probably much, much less.
They still do have, however, a very sizable and powerful Nuclear Arsenal, disproportionally more powerful than their rather average conventional Arsenal. (They have less Aircraft than the Royal Air Force plus German Air Force alone had in the late 80s and not terribly much more than Israeli plus Turkish Air Force in current terms).
Consequently, in an all- out war Putin would have to move to the Nukes rather early, since in a conventional war he would stand no realistic chance.
While you can avoid using Nukes yourself, it is hard to prevent if the Opponent feels that he has no alternative.
The difference in this sad story is: For him Ukraine is important. For the rest of the World it is not so much.
Be honest to yourself: What are you prepared to pay for it?
100$ ?
Your Son ?
End of Mankind ?


Sorry for being a bit blunt but one has to be realistic when pondering the options in such difficile affairs.

Might end that way if it does kick off and a nuclear power plant in Ukraine gets damaged, and there are a lot of them, and a lot in the East.. They got away with Chernobyl last time, next time they might not be so lucky.

Of course, there could always be international agreement, rather than willy measuring exercises, that all major players, Russia, EU, US ( I won't mention 8 pints Hague:eek:) all wind their necks in and help organise a referendum of Ukraine to determine their preference for alliance. Of course, the fact that they did that once, and it was ousted by the current, self appointed junta has simply been ignored by the West, particularly the EU, and 8 pints. Of course, we see here the classic double standard by our own government, they fully support self determination for the Falkland Islands and Gibraltar, but insist an externally imposed option is the only one that the people of Ukraine has. It strikes me that whether it be Russia or the West who end up calling the shots in Ukraine, there will always be some who oppose it, and therein lies more trouble. :ugh:

Whatever, it seems that the self appointed occupants of the Kiev parliament are determined to obtain several things;

A huge economic bailout from the west to pay their huge gas bill to Russia.

Membership of the EU so that they can export their unemployed across Europe to claim benefits, and send them home to help the economy.

As right wingers, support NATO expansion up to the Russian border, and become the "front line" in holding back the Russian bear, who haven't actually threatened to invade anyone to date I believe.

The sad thing, for someone who served from the late 60s to late 90s is that this minor, Slav, revolution has become capable of generating a truly terrible conflict between countries whose political rivalry was thought to have died with the fall of the Berlin Wall. Amazing how what goes around, comes around. perhaps I'm too thick to understand all of the "subtle nuances" of higher thought (the big picture ?) but then, I never aspired to such expertise, like most, I spent my career trusting my seniors and political policy. Somehow I have long since lost that trust.

Smudge

And that my dear chap is why we and every other country send their youth to war, their elders, see it for what it really is.... Somewhere along the line it all boils down to money and greed.. Both the USA and the UK have retired politicians on no doubt a huge fortune and pension sitting writing their memoirs on how they helped peace in this time by convincing the Ukrainians to hand over their one guaranteed defence asset for a piece of worthless rhetoric, when In fact it probably has helped destabilise the region in the long run.

300 miles from the Ukraine to Moscow, Russia as with the USA and the Cuban crisis wouldn't of had time react to the threat of a strike.

It's interesting that it's so frequently forgotten that the parliament was elected.

Yes, it is no different to the likes of our PM being ousted.

For the sake of a trouble free future and looking at the behaviour of some parties involved, I'm not really convinced this would be a terribly good idea.

Sometimes distance is the best way to keep trouble away. While it is always somewhat unfortunate to be the buffer, in the bigger scheme of things having a buffer makes things more relaxed and safe for all involved.
That way stupidity does not immediately lead to catastrophy.

Looking at the News today it becomes clear that Ukraine is a severely split and torn Nation. Even without direct intervention from Russia, it will be very difficult to keep the Eastern and Western Ukrainians under one Roof in the long run, it appears.
Getting involved militarily would at least mean getting involved in the next civil war. In the best case....

"Looking at the News today it becomes clear that Ukraine is a severely split and torn Nation. "


I agree. Very divided nation.

Agreed, but a buffer works both ways, Ukraine had no interest in joining NATO militarily, the same goes for Russia... Oddly enough, NATO never invaded, Russia did..
Yes they held exercises together, but then the west also held exercises with Russia.

One just hope it doesn't go the way it went in the likes of Bosnia.

As usual, this August I will be wending my way to Oz as I have done for many years now to spend a month with my son. On the way, sipping my Singapore Sling and dabbling at some delicacy I shall fly over Ukraine, the Crimea, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan and Pakistan in complete safety. It has always seemed surreal to me especially flying over Afghanistan where we fly directly over Kabul that down there my fellow countrymen are fighting and dying. I always raise my glass as we enter the border of Afghanistan to the servicemen who are seven miles below me.

It's a strange world.

Putin is not going to go to war with the west, hes a bully. It would take sweet stuff all to actually stop him. He's doing what he is because he knows he can get away with it. I mean, oh we'll put sanctions on him, f$% me why bother, do the western pollys think we are that stupid to actually believe they mean anything.

Disagree, the demographics and polls before the conflict where you could get a half netrual assessment tells the story.

The Crimea was the only close one, as the researchers would say the older traditional Russians where very pro Russian, but a lot of the younger ones not so. What this implied was it would actually be a close call there.

In the other So called Russian parts of the country basically there was strong support, but no where near a majority. The fact is its standard system at the moment, get your supporters out on the street and make sure the others are intimidated enough to stay indoors.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday said he very much hopes that he will not have to use his "right" to send Russian military forces into Ukraine amid the intensifying crisis.

"I very much hope that I am not obliged to use this right," said Putin, recalling that the Russian upper house of parliament had on March 1 authorised him to send troops onto Ukrainian territory. Putin had said that Russia's main demand was for guarantees of the protection of the rights for Russian-speakers living in south and east Ukraine*. "It is a question of guarantees for these people."

Mr Putin for the first time admits he sent Russian troops into Crimea ahead of its referendum on breaking with Kiev. "We had to take unavoidable steps so that events did not develop as they are currently developing in southeast Ukraine .. Of course our troops stood behind Crimea's self-defence forces."

Mr Putin says that southeastern Ukraine* was always part of Russia until Soviet leaders gave it to Kiev. "Why did they do that? God knows."

*Putin used the word "Novorossiya", the historical term denoting the area north of the Black Sea conquered by the Russian empire at the end of the 18th century, stretching from Donetsk to Odessa......

ORAC note - I see that area neatly brings the area claimed in Ukraine up to the border of the disputed enclave of Transnistria on Moldova.

You can understand why Poland is getting twitchy and requesting NATO troops be based on their territory, based on the Russian Kaliningrad Oblast and their interest in a land corridor through Lithuania and Poland....

Seeing as he's all about restoring pre-Soviet borders, perhaps Putin might want to hand back Kalingrad to Germany, the Kuril Islands to Japan, and Karelia to Finland. Or maybe not.

I see he admitted today that Russian forces were involved in the Crimea takeover, having previously sworn blind they had nothing to do with it.

Putin is really a brilliant leader indeed. Looking after his own people in this way. If only our own leaders would put our own people first.
Glad to see he still does not recognise the junta in Kiev as being in anyway legitimate.

Just so long as you're not gay, or a journalist, or a political opponent...

First Ukraine...... Roll on Alaska

Someone should tell Sarah Palin, or maybe she already knows (see 'Putin's' Twitter feed below)...


Vladimir Putin‏@DarthPutinKGBApr 11
I've managed to do something so stupid that it was a @SarahPalinUSA prediction. http://goo.gl/tkhaAw #Ukraine #Crimea