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-   -   Here it comes: Syria (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/513470-here-comes-syria.html)

Sunfish 30th Aug 2013 21:58


dead_pan

Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 443
Rather than go after Assad's CW capability, I reckon that if the US do go in they should plink those S300 batteries. Kill a few of their Russians operators. And when Russias table a motion at the UN S/C condemning the attack, blithely use their veto to squash it. Two can play at that game.
Last edited by dead_pan; 31st Aug 2013 at 07:34.
Maybe if the "Russian operators" succeed in downing a few western aircraft and the Assads publicly hang the pilots as war criminals, you might reconsider the jingoistic nonsense you post.

In any case good on yer Parliament! At last some common sense!

Melchett01 30th Aug 2013 22:02

The result of last night's vote in no way results in a diminution of either GB plc or the rationale for having Armed Forces as suggested by the likes of Paddy Ashdown. Only those that would like to see the British military totally neutered would put forward such an argument as they believe it strengthens their case.

It does not. What last night's vote does do is to make a series of very important points across a range of issues, of which the lack of UK involvement in Syria is merely a symptom.

Firstly, it finally, re-emphasises the primacy of the Legislature and the people over the Executive. For too long, and certainly since Blair, this country has not been ruled by Parliament but by a form of 'kitchen table' or 'sofa' cabinet, where decisions were made by a few individuals, advised by unelected and unaccountable SpADs who could peddle their own ideas and agendas, and which were then presented to the Legislature to be rubber stamped. That is not the action of an effective democracy. Last night's vote was a move against that trend and potentially the first steps to the re-establishment of Parliamentary rather than Cabinet government.

Secondly, the whole thing was rushed and ill-thought through. Cameron may well have had the kernel of an idea, but it was nothing more than a kernel. There was little or no supporting work to back up his case. General Dannett summed it up very nicely by suggesting that you don't make decision by kicking a ball down the pitch and deciding what to do on the basis of how it bounces. Any decision to launch a military campaign must be backed up by strategy, an examination of how the action supports that strategy, what the likely outcome is going to be and what we do if things don't go to plan. If anybody on this site that is currently serving presented a piece of operational staff work to the same standard that Cameron presented his case to Parliament, it would be sent back covered in red pen as being half considered with many questions still to be answered. The moral of the story, is get your ducks in a row and don't base your planning on assumptions, otherwise you look stupid when it all goes wrong. If the standard of evidence and argument presented to Parliament were presented to a court of law in a capitcal case where the burden of proof were set high enough to reflect the likely severity of the sentence, the case would be thrown out or the defendent acquited.

Finally, I think the comparisons of Syria to Iraq and the dodgy dossier miss a fundamental point. Firstly, Milliband was always going to play the 'learning from Iraq' card; it puts further distance between the Labour Party of 2013 and the Labour Party of 2003 and helps try to heal a running sore that will blight the Labour Party for a long time when it comes to foreign policy. Secondly, there have been a number of statements suggesting that this demonstrates a lack of trust in the intelligence services. This in itself is a misunderstanding; the intelligence agencies - if managed correctly and not heading off on their own little power trips and agendas - will only work to advise the government of the day on the basis of the government's stated policies and agendas. How that intelligence is used by the politicians, especially if it is seen to be inaccurate or unuseable i.e. it doens't fit the politicians' ideas of what they want to do, is another matter entirely. When you hear of intelligence agencies being blamed, it is almost always because they have told the decision makers some unpalatable or inconvenient truth they didn't want to hear.

Those that know me will testify that I am right at the back of the queue when it comes to being a bleeding heart sandal wearing liberal, but where lives are at stake I would like to see a fully formed and reasoned argument which I just don't think has been presented by the Government. In such a case, last night's defeat should be seen not as a political victory for one side or another - although it clearly will be - but as a victory for common sense, for not pilling in both feet first without actually checking and as a strengthening of the democratic process. If the Government had done it's job properly and put a fully formed and evidence based rather than emotive case, they would have won and on that basis I would be more than happy to be convinced of the necessity to act.

NutLoose 30th Aug 2013 22:15

Well said.... :D:D


What we need is decisive leadership, where is Ed Balls when he's needed.....

Joke

Broadsword*** 30th Aug 2013 22:18

It is bad enough that our limited capability means we would have been unable to make more than a token contribution to any military action against Assad, but we are now completely sidelined. I'm with Paddy.

Paddy Ashdown 'ashamed' of Britain over Commons vote
The former leader of the Liberal Democrats said he is “ashamed” of Britain’s decision not to take action following the chemical weapons attack in Syria which saw hundreds killed and thousands more injured.

Syria crisis: Paddy Ashdown 'ashamed' of Britain over Commons vote - Telegraph

NutLoose 30th Aug 2013 22:23

One of the main problems is the UK has now so many gaps in their capability they need to piggyback off other Countries to do anything.... That's what I'm ashamed off.

paully 30th Aug 2013 22:35

Are they bringing the jets back from Cyprus now their not going to be needed, anybody know?

NutLoose 30th Aug 2013 22:45

As there is more than just the UK out there, one would imagine they will stay until it's all calmed down a bit, after all they need to work on their tan and get a few descent meals down them..
They will simply be there to protect the assets in the area and not in an offensive posture... But then that's just my best guess.

Broadsword*** 30th Aug 2013 23:01


Firstly, it finally, re-emphasises the primacy of the Legislature and the people over the Executive. For too long, and certainly since Blair, this country has not been ruled by Parliament but by a form of 'kitchen table' or 'sofa' cabinet, where decisions were made by a few individuals, advised by unelected and unaccountable SpADs who could peddle their own ideas and agendas, and which were then presented to the Legislature to be rubber stamped. That is not the action of an effective democracy. Last night's vote was a move against that trend and potentially the first steps to the re-establishment of Parliamentary rather than Cabinet government.
It could have something to do with our fine unwritten constitution, which has the effect of making the prime minister de facto president and gives our commander-in-chief all the power to declare a new community centre open.

SASless 30th Aug 2013 23:18


Yes but doesn't it worry you that Russia is teaming with the likes of Syria and Iran, who are pulling all kinds of strings in the region, some of them connected to proscribed groups who we would count alongside AQ as our enemies.

That kind of stuff has been going on since Stalin's times.....hit its peak in the Cold War....so what is new?

Lowe Flieger 30th Aug 2013 23:44

Atrocities continue in Syria. It is a terrible civil war in which innocents bear the brunt of conflicting ambitions, as always seems to be the case. Yet I still do not see why there is an imperative for the UK to take military action and I still fail to see what limited bomb strikes are going to do to make things better in the country. Will Assad come to heel? I doubt it. And if he doesn't what do you do next? Increase the strikes? And if that doesn't work? I think the UK Parliament has acted correctly here. Seldom do I find myself agreeing with Miliband, but I think he got it right, even if my sense is that he saw the political opportunity to court party political popularity first, and found his conscience second.

Who are the rebels we are supporting? I really don't know but it seems to be an incoherent grouping of various interests, some of whom are definitely not the people we would normally want to side with. That they would be happy for Western fire power in their hour of need is undoubted; that they will be fighting us with a bitter hatred once we are no longer of use is probably equally true. And why is it the UK's problem? Perhaps because we are a permanent member of the UN security Council, an influential position we will increasingly struggle to hold on to as our military power and economy decline? I suspect Cameron was taking the long-term view on US/UK political alliances when he tried to support military strikes. That may be damaged somewhat now, although I don't think Obama has been that supportive of the UK anyway. It seems we have to face up to some very uncomfortable truths of being a fading power.

Where we could help is in providing aid - which - could be practical as much as financial - to the various charities trying to deal with the humanitarian crisis; using what influence we still have to get other Arab nations to support this aim too; working with the major powers to seek a political solution which might mean leaving Assad in place as the lesser of many evils. Despots such as Saddam and Assad, keep a semblance of order by ruthlessly suppressing their populations. Once removed, a whole host of warring factions rush to fill the vacuum. So, firing a few missiles, leader deposed, democracy introduced, factions agree to become docile citizens committed to peaceful co-existence, is a tempting thought but it won't work like that. Moreover it won't work like that even if the West embarks on Afghanistan II. Hard as it may be, the best people to find a way through the mire are the Syrians, and that will be a long hard road too. Anything imposed from outside is extremely unlikely to be effective, even if well intentioned.

LF

AR1 31st Aug 2013 07:24

The nature of the beast Eclan. When the flag drops - The bulls**t stops.

The meeja reporting of this is getting right up my nose. Democracy was seen to be in action and now the subject is 'Has the PM lost authority' He can't win can he?
The reporting of chemical weapons - In Iraq many bodies on the ground, in Syria people having their eyes washed. Proof? and if there is, prove who did it before you do something about it.

The bomb 'dropped on a school' - Without the context of what was happening around the school or indeed in it. Then backed up by a shot of a brand new childs shoe placed in the rubble.

Whats happening in Syria is not good for the people or the country, but I simply don't trust how it's being reported.

Pontius Navigator 31st Aug 2013 08:01


Originally Posted by AR1 (Post 8022597)
The bomb 'dropped on a school' - Without the context of what was happening around the school or indeed in it. Then backed up by a shot of a brand new childs shoe placed in the rubble.

That shoe issue has of course been a well played propaganda ploy by media and others through the years.

On the 'school' issue, it occurs to me to ask where did the CW attacks take place.

Were they 'military' attacks against 'legitimate' targets where there happened to be countless innocent civilians in the target area, or were they 'terror' attacks deliberately targeting the civil population in their opponents rear area?

If the former, why were civilians in the target area? Historically civilians flee target areas except when they are surrounded. Is that the case here?

If the latter, the case should be easily proven. Why has it not been demonstrated that the attacks were in residential areas away from the fighting?

Heathrow Harry 31st Aug 2013 08:18

Well said Melchett!!

I'm sure the re-appearance of that creep Bliar in the pages of the "Times" mid week advocating action on Syria reminded a lot of people where we went wrong on his watch

BEagle 31st Aug 2013 08:46


I'm sure the re-appearance of that creep Bliar in the pages of the "Times" mid week advocating action on Syria reminded a lot of people where we went wrong on his watch.
Quite so. That wretched oleaginous Bush-poodle should have the sense to keep quiet as no-one will believe anything he says.

For all his faults, at least Gordon Brown has had the good grace to keep quiet about day-to-day politics since leaving office.

henra 31st Aug 2013 09:11


Originally Posted by Eclan (Post 8022513)
If Obama manages to start his war and the Russians wade in, it will be interesting to see how the western combat aircraft fare in a real air-to-air war.

You can be sure this simply won't happen. The Russians are not stupid and Obama will also make sure upfront that nothing gets out of hand. If the Russians themselves are manning S-300s at present I suspect even for those they will find an agreement upfront.

This thing isn't important enough for either side to risk anything serious. Remember how reluctant Russia was to give asylum to Snowden since they didn't want to harm their relationship with the US too much?
Also both sides know very well that a couple of air strikes won't make any difference to the outcome of this.

This is about Face Saving a bit on both sides. Obama will fire his couple of Tomahawks (and enable a real world test of the X47B :E) after having informed the Russians upfront about it. The Russians will scream and shout a bit and also protest in the UN S/C and after those two/three days of air/cruise missile strikes Business will continue as usual.

Israel doesn't seem to be willing to get involved -which they are usually not too reluctant about. As others have pointed out this is the strongest indication we can get that a protracted civil war in Syria is probably the preferred state of affairs by Israel and the US.


Edit:

After decades of simulation and "Red Air", the first time in a long while for real air warfare against current generation Eastern BLOC aircraft flown by pilots who know what they're doing.
Out of curiosity: Where is this eastern BLOC and which countries belong to it? What is their global goal and Ideology?
Did you get the news what happened during the last 25 years?
If you are talking about Russia: Yes they are still a Power to be reckoned with. They have national interests like other Countries do. Maybe they still have somewhat more Toys and influence to foster them then many other Countries. They are also probably not a shining example of an open democracy. But I don't see much efforts by them to conquer the world and invade into foreign Countries against their will.

Stuffy 31st Aug 2013 09:36

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.” - Joseph Goebbels.

» Shocking Story That Could Derail Attack on Syria Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!

» Bombshell: Kerry Caught Using Fake Photos to Fuel Syrian War Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!

» Kerry Lies About Number of Syrian Chemical War Dead Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!

Pontius Navigator 31st Aug 2013 10:15

Apart from UK media using unattributed archive imagery of the wrong aircraft to illustrate a story, it is only a step to use similar archive imagery and insert in in official documents.

Now however it is possible to submit any image to an image search program that will present matches to archived imagery. users of archive imagery will get found out and no matter how accurate the basic reportage, such archive fakery will totally destroy that reportage credibility.

AtomKraft 31st Aug 2013 10:34

My 2p worth (again).

I think the UK have done rather well here.

In fact the UK has enhanced its reputation and shown real strength.
It's been a while since I've felt even slightly proud of our politicians. This is as close as I've been for a long, long time.

We have actually influenced the US, into doing nothing- which is precisely what they will do.

How much better is that, than supinely supporting them as they make an arse of themselves- and us, again? :D

glad rag 31st Aug 2013 10:36


Originally Posted by Courtney Mil (Post 8019245)
Captbod,

Yes, Sarin is non-persistent, regardless of what the journos say. It's very volatile and in the Syrian heat would not remain in liquid form for more than about half an hour - even in the cold it will only last some 7-10 hours.

NutLoose,

I'm Courtney, not Coff, Mate. :ok: I wasn't trying to be patronizing, sorry. As to your point, even if the precursors were stored on the same site, they still need to be mixed effectively. Blowing up storage tanks wouldn't do that very well. In any event, extreme heat helps break down most nerve agents.

AirPig,

Re the "bath tub" Sarin. The Russians decided that the Sarin used in the Aleppo CW attack back in March was not factory made as it did not appear to contain stabilizers. They used that 'fact' to claim that it had been made by the rebels. But those stabilizers are only there to extend the shelf life, not to make it more persistent. Again, given the temperatures, victims' contaminated clothing only poses a threat for around 30 minutes with Sarin. We also saw a lot of water being sprayed around in the videos of the latest attack. Water breaks Sarin down very effectively. So I don't think there was too much risk to unprotected rescuers and doctors, but I don't think that can be used to assess where it came from.

Courtney, I think the highlighted text is what has us all a wee bit "tense" about the septics governments plans, you know......

ShotOne 31st Aug 2013 11:22

Well said, atomkraft. There have been some comments on how this might "Reduce our influence" in Washington...as if they wait for our say so when deciding policy. If you use the phrase "special relationship" there, you'll get a blank look.


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