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-   -   Here it comes: Syria (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/513470-here-comes-syria.html)

Pontius Navigator 13th Apr 2018 12:29

As Vilnius is in Lithuania and Lithuania is in NATO, Putin may consider Vilnius for New York a double win.

As for Russia's end game I submit that is too far in the future. In the near term I think he is more concerned with reesatablishing Russia's Cold War sphere of influence. Some of this is not possible as the Warsaw Last countries are deeply embedded in Europe but the Baltic States, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are much easier targets.

Russia lost its Mediterranean ports and anchorage so reestablishing their Syrian port is a logical step.

roving 13th Apr 2018 13:36

Mark Galeotti is a highly regarded British academic with deep insight into Putin's mindset.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Galeotti

In this short recording dated February 2017, he was prophetic about Putin v Trump.


A_Van 13th Apr 2018 15:18

ORAC,

Good to see the discussion going into the tech. direction, not political.



Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10116926)
A_Van.

With the best will in the world, OTH radar is only effective used over large areas of sea.


Why sea only? It works over solid ground, too. But talking about East Med, water matters, indeed.



Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10116926)
There are surface wave coastal radars effective out to a couple of hundred miles, but only against surface targets, they wouldn’t pick up a cruise missile.


I did not mean that kind of a radar, but more "classic" ones, with some 3000 km range.



Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10116926)
Even if they could, detection range and identification in a crowded, and doubtless highly jammed EW environment like the eastern Med would be a nightmare.


Direct identification is of course not possible, but simply excluding "friends" we get "foe".
As for "highly jammed", it depends on particular wave length.
It would be very hot around 10 GHz, but OTHRs typically operate in the 2-30 MHz window.
I would be interested to see a jammer for this bandwidth.

ORAC 13th Apr 2018 16:08

Russia hasn't got a long range OTH radar which covers the region. They do have a newer coastal OTH, "Sunflower", but only back in Russia and not covering the area. Even if they had its VHF band and eminently jammable.


Direct identification is of course not possible, but simply excluding "friends" we get "foe".
I did a tour based at 280SU in Cyprus back in the day - I wish you luck. Ignoring all the air traffic talking to Nicosia, Tel Aviv etc there are many many more operating autonomously talking to nobody doing various surveillance tasks - none of whom could arbitrarily designated as a foe.

A_Van 13th Apr 2018 16:58


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 10117176)
Russia hasn't got a long range OTH radar which covers the region.
......



You said. Not the Russians :rolleyes:

ORAC 13th Apr 2018 17:14

Nobody has. The mountain terrain north, east and west precludes a long range OTH and Syria and Lebanon don’t have coastal VHF surface wave radars. Israel probably has - but that wouldn’t help the Syrians much.

Just a spotter 13th Apr 2018 17:26

Russia claiming they have evidence of who carried out the chemical attack on Douma. Can you guess who they say the evidence implicates ....




“We have .. evidence that proves Britain was directly involved in organizing this provocation,” defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said during a televised briefing.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKBN1HK24P





JAS

Heathrow Harry 13th Apr 2018 17:45

The Russians have a real thing about English Spies... if only they really were so effective.......

ORAC 13th Apr 2018 18:29

The Iranians will believe them. We are the “Little Satan” after all - and they have long believed we are the Machiavellian schemers leading on the gullible Americans...

ShotOne 13th Apr 2018 19:52

In a roundabout way it’s a compliment; even during Cold War they believed all James Bond gadgets were real, and they’ve used the phrase “licenced to kill” in present crisis. But none of that turns bombarding Syria, with the possible exception of confirmed CW sites, into a good idea.

Flugplatz 13th Apr 2018 20:44

Feels like a bit of a set-up for a strike on UK military locations or ships/aircraft i.e. if Russians are killed during a strike on Syria, attacking British mil is a slightly less confrontational way of seriously hitting back than hitting US mil. They are certainly are pretty p***** off with the UK for the global reaction to Salisbury. Testing Britain, NATO and Trump, with just enough to leave some wriggle-room to de-escalate

Easy Street 13th Apr 2018 20:52

It’s an odd one. The “it could have been staged by the rebels” and “what good can come of intervention?” viewpoints were really starting to gain traction in the UK; in fact General Jonathan Shaw was making just that point on Sky News when he was inexplicably cut off earlier today. The tide was certainly running against action, in my view anyway. This accusation by Russia makes it a lot harder for those viewpoints to get a fair hearing and if anything strengthens the Government’s case for action. Do we think Russia actually *wants* us to attack so that it can exploit divisions in the aftermath?

TEEEJ 13th Apr 2018 22:17


Originally Posted by Just a spotter (Post 10117278)
Russia claiming they have evidence of who carried out the chemical attack on Douma. Can you guess who they say the evidence implicates ....

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKBN1HK24P

JAS

Russians trying to cash in and spin on the recent propaganda story that UK Special Forces were captured near Damascus as the Syrians advanced.


Iran's news agency Fars, which is heavily linked to the government, claimed a number of British forces were being held captive by the Syrian army in the Eastern Ghouta region near the capital Damascus.

The report, quoting the Lebanese news channel al-Mayadeen’s correspondent in Moscow, added the forces were captured after “infiltrating” the region for the last month as part of a plot involving “terrorists and NATO forces" to attack Damascus.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...aptured-troops

andrewn 13th Apr 2018 23:17

This is all starting to look rather complex, and definitely not helped by Trump's first "missiles are coming" tweet (which must have had the US miltary top brass doing somersaults!).

Although the Maybot is an inadequate fool, I do feel for her right now as she's kind of damned if she does and damned if she doesn't. If I was in her position I'd pluck for the parliamentary vote and keep fingers crossed it gets voted down - then at least she can say she tried. And, in the meanwhile hopefully things will de-escalate.

I'm not exactly one for appeasement, but as somebody pointed out above, with two lunatics in charge of things (Putin and Trump) the last thing we want to do is provoke even further, surely?

dctyke 13th Apr 2018 23:20


Originally Posted by Easy Street (Post 10117444)
It’s an odd one. The “it could have been staged by the rebels” and “what good can come of intervention?” viewpoints were really starting to gain traction in the UK; in fact General Jonathan Shaw was making just that point on Sky News when he was inexplicably cut off earlier today. The tide was certainly running against action, in my view anyway. This accusation by Russia makes it a lot harder for those viewpoints to get a fair hearing and if anything strengthens the Government’s case for action. Do we think Russia actually *wants* us to attack so that it can exploit divisions in the aftermath?

Saw that myself on sky, I was aghast that they chopped him mid sentence when it became obvious he had an alternative viewpoint. Very sinister.........

Al-bert 14th Apr 2018 00:00


a distinct smell of fish detected!

flash8 14th Apr 2018 00:05


a distinct smell of fish detected!
Indeed, not that subtle either!


Although the Maybot is an inadequate fool, I do feel for her right now as she's kind of damned if she does and damned if she doesn't. If I was in her position I'd pluck for the parliamentary vote and keep fingers crossed it gets voted down - then at least she can say she tried. And, in the meanwhile hopefully things will de-escalate.
If its voted down, she is out, and she knows it, hence avoidance of that route.

reynoldsno1 14th Apr 2018 01:27


A co-ordinated missile strike to "punish" Assad and warn Putin
A golden opportunity for an operational trial of the S-400 system - the one manned by the Syrian Army of course.

tartare 14th Apr 2018 02:06

Trump on air now.
US, UK and France have launched strikes.
AP reporting explosions heard in Damascus.
Pentagon briefing in 50 minutes.

EDIT : Interestingly, both aircraft and ships used - JASSM and Stormshadow?
Strikes reported in several districts around Damascus.
Already video on Twitter.
CNN reporting RAF Tornado GR4s fired Stormshadows at facilities around Homs.

thunderbird7 14th Apr 2018 02:39


Originally Posted by reynoldsno1 (Post 10117655)
A golden opportunity for an operational trial of the S-400 system - the one manned by the Syrian Army of course.

...not forgetting that old adage that 'tracer (missiles) go both ways..'


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