Predator first started flying ops 17 years ago in the Balkans, do you really think they're just starting to think about it? :ugh:

Only one predator lost over Iraq?
 

I distinctly recall that during my stint at Ali Al Salem, spanning 9/11, the collocated USAF Predator det lost at least 2 "drones" to SAMs. IMHO not a great portent considering the degraded state of their IADS after 9 years of enforcing the Southern NFZ.

Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me - well thinking about it in any serious manner with due consideration to all the potential operational effects. We have been so indoctrinated into the fact that Iraq and Afghanistan represents the new - and only - form of warfare and that RPAs are the answer to everything that to consider anything else was until now heresy.

When you read the various think pieces and listen to the talk about the future character of conflict coming out of various study days and presentations, one gets the distinct impression that people sound vaguely surprised that the air threat in Afghanistan is not representative of what we might have to go up against some day. But I'm still not convinces that they have squared the circle of an over reliance on RPAs against the likelihood that they will be lost if they go up against any credible AD network without significant investment in defensive capabilities and revised CONOPS.

Ever tried to light a newly filled Zippo?