Whilst the radar altitude returns might appear to show that the aircraft was above the height of the peaks shortly before the accident, that might not have actually been the case. Presumably these altitudes came from IFF Mode C returns, which are based on 1013.2mb. If the actual pressure was significantly lower (either due to weather systems or local orographic effects) then it might well have been the case that the aircraft was below the peak altitude all along. So this data will need deeper analysis before being treated as conclusive.

Video taken from the bottom of the avalanche zone/debries field

- Her krasjet «Siv» inn i fjellveggen - nyheter - Dagbladet.no

http://ap.mnocdn.no/incoming/article...d=180320121949

Some of what the Swedish policeman says in the video: They assume the aircraft has flown alongside the glacier before hitting the mountain. Debris found also on the other side of the mountain. Point of impact probably just a few meters below the ridge of the mountain. Very tragic indeed.

Easy Street - you are of course quite correct, we don't know the basis of the radar returns and as such I'd caveated all my musings on the basis of them being valid. I was under the impression however that ATC radars corrected for local barometric pressure/QNH though? That might explain the difference between the military 7200ft readout and the civil one at 7600? No idea. Yet more speculating, apologies.

For interest's sake, QNH at ESNQ at the time was was 1001 and had been falling by about 1mb an hour all day. QNH at ENEV was 998 and had been also dropping at the same rate all day.

Anyway, It's all now in the hands of the experts now who have a lot more facts to hand than we do.

Heavy turbulence in the area at the time of the crash. From a Norwegian newspaper: Hercules aircraft may have been surprised by the strong turbulence

A horrendous job for the recovery teams too--RIP all--such a shame so close to safety for the crew.

Nothing suggest tactical flying
 

They (swedish NTSB)) now say that they at this point, dont have anything that suggest`s tactical flying.

The information the commission have gathered so far say that the hercules didn t fly low.

tactical flying means that autopilot is off and they follow the terrain to avoid radar.

Again, I have a few questions.

Why did the plane hit the mountain side so far up?
Why does it look like the aircraft was in a climb before impact?
From where was the plane coming from with regard to impact site?
What altitude does the plane seem to have been before entering this valley?
what speed does the plane seem to have before impact?
Does the weather have anything to do with the crash?

Why do I have e feeling that they are focusing on autopilot, and approch to kiruna, holding, etc...etc...?
There are meteorologist talking about wind conditions, there are director of operations in a company talking also about the wind conditions at Kebnekaise. I really dont know if that is relevant here.

personally I believe we have to look at the crash site. where is it?. why did the plane hit right there? why didnt they hit any of the other walls? why didnt the plane hit the top of kebnekaise?

I believe the answers lies with regard to the crash site.

From a couple of pictures earlier, there looks like to be a parallel valley to the right of the last few seconds of flight....

I know the J well, but am in no way knowledgeable of the met conditions, flight deck workload, EGI accuracy etc etc of that flight.

A very sad event. RIP.

Many many moons ago a wise old RAF instructor told me that the hills and mountains of the world were littered with a/c that didn't make it by those 50ft - and of course you hear far less of the one's that cleared them by 50ft.

There are many many possible causes and I'm not sure they will be established here - including white-out, orographic downdrafts, misjudgement and of course technical failure - which would be easier to establish. I have lost a few acquaintances who were in 'the wrong valley' in my time too.

German "Flugzeugforum" reports that there were 3 transport aircraft flying.
First one was a German Transall reaching Kiruna without incident, second aircraft is the Hercules lost, third one (Herc?) returning due to bad weather.

I couldn´t find anything about the spacing between them but it surely was more than just a few minutes.

More info from the Norwegian MOD today. They have released the planned route used by the crew, as well as the radar plots from NADGE. (CRC Sørreisa)

From here this article: Google translate from Forsvaret.no

http://forsvaret.no/sites/artikkelbi...rute%20Siv.jpg

http://forsvaret.no/sites/artikkelbi...3%B8rreisa.jpg

No radar att Kiruna tower
 

When the plane was handed over from Sweden ctrl, the radar service was terminated.

According to the approach plate for runway 21 at Kiruna the lowest safe altitude there is 5300 ft, which is probably what they were cleared to descend to.

Focusing on the approach plate and being used to radar vectors, it is likely they forgot that ATC may clear you to an altitude that is below the MSA at your present position. Even if they were cleared to the airport MSA of 5300 ft, it was their own responsibility to make sure they were within 25 nm before doing that.

The crash happened about 40 nm out, where the MSA is 9000 ft.

Search operation paused due to weather until Sunday
 

KIRUNA.
Work at the site of Kebnekaise has been canceled and will not resume for several days. The reason for this decision is the weather.
Low Rain impaired visibility on Tuesday and forecast speaks of strong winds and precipitation in the coming days. The Accident Investigation Board's own meteorologists in Sweden and Norway believe that the work on the site is impossible right now.
The police are now turning out all personnel in the area. However, there will be some people left even during the break for the planning and identification. It is unclear when work can resume. Weather is unlikely to improve until Sunday or Monday.

Webcam at Kebnekaise right now:

Webbkameror.se - Kebnekaise fjällstation, webbkamera, webbkameror, webkamera, webbkameror, webcam, webcams, livecam, livecams, väder, vädret

http://www.nsd.se/inc/imagehandler.a...8&quality=high

339 Sqn RNoAF has been sling loading down collected aircraft parts down to the FARP where it´s locked into 20 foot ISO containers for further shipment by road to Kiruna. The Swedish AIBN has rented a hangar where the wreckage will be collected.

Heavier parts like engines will be slinged down using the Super Puma of the Swedish Armed forces.

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207...ctive/978x.jpg

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207...ctive/729x.jpg

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207...ctive/729x.jpg

Black boxes to the U.K. when found
 

(Google Translate messes up this Swedish newspaper article, so I took the liberty of improving it.)

Black boxes to the UK when found
100 people still working with search operation
Still hope that boxes will be found

KIRUNA.
The so-called black boxes from the crashed Hercules plane in Kebnekaise will be flown to Britain for analysis when they are found.

Kiruna (TT) The so-called black boxes from the crashed Hercules plane in Kebnekaise be flown to Britain for analysis when they are found. - We will send them by courier as soon as possible, says Agne Widholm at the (Swedish) Investigation Board. The boxes contain information on the Hercules plane's last flight, stored on hard drives. The Norwegian plane with five officers crashed on a mountainside on March 16 during an international military exercise in which Sweden participated.
About a hundred people are now working with the search for wreckage and remains of those killed. Agne Widholm is convinced that the so-called black boxes will be found. - It is not (a question of) if, but when we find them. There may be crevices that they have fallen into, but we do not really believe that, he says.
If the hard drives are found, the causes of the crash are likely to clarify. Agne Widholm has as yet no theory about what went wrong. - No, it's too early yet, we have some hypotheses that we gather more facts about, but we are still at that stage, he says.

The analysis of the hard drives are planned to take place at the British equivalent of the (Swedish) Investigation, Air accident Investigation Branch (AAIB).
- We will send them by courier as soon as possible, says Agne Widholm at the Swedish Investigation Board.

By TT (Sweden's National Wire Service)

Original article in Swedish here:
Svarta lådor till Storbritannien - - Nyheter - Norrländska Socialdemokraten - NORRLÄNDSKA SOCIALDEMOKRATEN

http://www.nsd.se/inc/imagehandler.a...8&quality=high

Thanks for keeping us updated.

Today the Norwegian SF Command released a picture taken by the SF operators that reached the wreckage on the first morning.

http://static.vg.no/uploaded/image/b...995802_564.jpg

Norwegian Hercules flew same route today
 

A Hercules from the Norwegian Air Force flew the same route today (Friday) to gather more information about possible causes for the accident. This time, Google Translate writes "Heathrow" for Oslo Airport Gardermoen.
Google Oversetter

Original article in Norwegian here:
Kiruna: Flyr opp ulykkesflyets rute - TV 2 Nyhetene

http://pub.tv2.no/multimedia/TV2/arc...na_956645i.jpg

Several memory cards found
 

Several memory cards from the Hercules have been found and sent to the manufacturer for analysis. It is hoped that at least one of them still may contain the cash memory for the black boxes.
Approx. 20% of the wreckage has so far been recovered in the masses of snow from the avalanche.

Google Translate

Original article in Norwegian here:
Minnekort kan lse Hercules-gten - nyheter - Dagbladet.no

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207...ctive/978x.jpg

I really hope that you mean "cache memory"... being able to tell how much money was aboard would not be very helpful.