These really are unprecedented times; the last 2 decades have seen what I think many would agree to be an unbelievable decline in fast jet types/ numbers/sqaudrons.... it is very sad and not a little disconcerting.

I wonder if we are in a similar situation to that of the 1930s - a lull in military spending and the priority of HM Forces in the government's mind being below most others (even with the current Herrick commitment!). If you take a few minutes to consider the potential list of threats to the UK or the parts of the world where conflict would have a direct effect on us - Iran, North Korea, Falklands, Russia vs another 'Georgia' type country (especially if it is a NATO nation!:eek:), Pakistan becoming a failed state, Arab/Israeli tensions and the other 1 million possibilities that we cannot predict - then in a few years we may require a reversal of the current decline and have to massively re-arm!!

Who knows eh - oh for a crystal ball... I just hope we don't get caught with our pants down and find ourselves unable to respond to a real, no s**t threat to the UK and/or its vital interests. Time will tell I guess...

Sense1

Wow - 6 Fast Jet Squadrons.

Only room for 24 Sengos and 48 Jengos.


And 85 groups captains 215 Wing cdrs. 250 Flt Cdrs...

Nice little phrases of jointery thrown in there too

Good luck guys - even Baggers sounds like he's about to Bagg out.

You're all overlooking the Reds, who will now become a sizeable percentage of our front line FJ strength.

(Before anybody queries the FJ bit, somebody started the ball rolling with the Bruggen Jaguars....)

I can see our next unexpected conflict is shaping up very nicely - hastily camo'd up, GPMGs bodge taped under the nose, while the central band play 'selections from the films of Jack Hawkins' as they counter march up and down the nearest sand dune....

The problem with rapid rearmament is that you can't train a modern pilot in a few months, there's unlikely to be time to resurrect a capability from the cold ashes. I wonder if Dave et al are actually aware of the fact that you can't give a guy 12 hours on a Tiger Moth and expect him to bolt a modern warplane on?

Dave

davejb

Just a year after the 1981 Nott Review here's HMS Hermes at the time of the Falkalnds War. A Fleet that had no CIWS, no AEW and barely enough Sea Harriers but plenty of GPMG's:mad:

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...Britain005.jpg

When a 'real' enemy starts drone-swatting with a few old MiG-19s or the like, it'll be too late to realise that 6 or 8 squadrons of fast-jets is insufficient.

Capabilities? One stat - in 1962 the RAF had 23 squadrons of V-bombers alone.

Beagle - or another - the USAF have 3 squadrons in the UK, 50% of the number we'll be down to.

Oh add in 100 Sqn - that bumps it up by another one.

Another stat - Ireland (yes, that military superpower) has ~1,000 personnel in its Air Corps and ~3.5m poulation. The UK is ~17 times larger, which would imply ~17,000 personnel on a parity basis. We will have about 35,000 once SDSR has worked its way through, or only twice the "per population" basis of Ireland. I'd expect a ratio more like 5:1. Oh and they have Maritime Reconnaissance, too.

Well this sends the exact signal to the current people serving how much our effort is regarded.

Every war and history says it all you need air superiority before you send in the troops, by 2020 we will have 90,000 troops armed with pea shooters to fend of the air targets and a few typhoons if they have spares left by then to maybe take a few out.

This just hits it on the head how we are regarded and leaving the Military could not come fast enough.

My, my, Rum Punch, you have changed your tune...

From your post in October http://www.pprune.org/6030225-post64.html

I take it that FJs are now worthy now they've taken cuts as well?

iRaven

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

George Santayana.

I would bet money that the RAF will not exist as an independent service by 2020. It is about to lose SAR, JFH, and Nimrod, sending a clear signal to the RN that they aren't interested in Maritime ops.

Now look at what is left...
- FJ which will be swing roled as CAS platforms which support the Army.
- Transport which is used primarily to support the Army.
- Helicopters which are used primarily to support the Army.
- ASTOR which is used primarily to support the Army.


The only stuff that is Non-Army supporting seems to be Air defence (see above) and AWACS. All non-squadron trades could pretty much be covered by the Army so here is my prediction...

You will still be called the RAF, You will have the same uniform, ranks etc.
but...
the people that do all the non squadron jobs will be predominantly Brown or civillian.
And Ultimately you will all be working for the Army.

I hope i'm wrong :(

I get , let's call the "new" show the Royal Flying Corps and the boat people the Royal Naval Air Service! :D:}

That's pretty much the case now isn't it? The Army are the supported, the RAF supporting, at least in most roles. T'was ever thus.

So how long before CAS is a former Apache/Lynx/Gazelle driver .... or even a Royal Artillery Phoenix "driver" :E

Left Foot Forward: Cameron: Drones are the future, in Afghanistan and beyond

During a surprise visit to Afghanistan this week, the prime minister announced the UK will double its military unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capability by 2013. He described a £135 million plan to increase the number of Reaper UAVs operated from Kandahar airbase to approximately ten. The new vehicles will complement the existing Reapers under British control and the 54 UK Watchkeepers, being built in Leicester, which will begin to enter service in late 2011.

The new deal, according to Mr Cameron represents:
This language, alongside his claims that UK troops may be able to start leaving Afghanistan as early as next year, imply Mr Cameron sees drones as a long-term part of the UK’s defence arrangements in the post-crash, post-Afghanistan strategic environment.

His twin announcements (potential early withdrawal, increase in drone use) mirrored news earlier in the year that, whilst US troops have largely pulled out of Iraq, the number of drone flights over the country has remained constant. Indeed, Col. Robert Sova, who manages UAV capability at the Army’s Training and Doctrine Command, predicts an increase in flight hours:

“What we’re seeing is a significant increase in the use of communications relay and communications extension. The need to cover a geographical area is still the same, but now we have less troops.”

A more tempting analogy is Churchill’s 1921 decision to use the new RAF to put down rebellions in the British Mandate of Mesopotamia (maintaining large troop numbers was not considered fiscally responsible). In fact, Churchill saw early Iraq as an ideal training ground for Britain’s future military. As he put it, the country offered an opportunity to carry out a:

“… far-sighted policy of Imperial aerial development.”

Obversely, the pressures driving British UAV procurement in the present are being felt throughout the Middle East, making regional proliferation likely. The latest WikiLeaks cables show several non-NATO states also trying to buy export-restricted US drones. For example, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince tried to woo CentCom Commander General John Abizaid into selling UAE the Predator B, purportedly to match Iranian domestic UAV production.

Turkish officials have been lobbying Defence Secretary Robert Gates for Predators, to make up for the decreasing US presence in Iraq. US drones have been providing intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance in northern Iraq for Turkish raids on PKK fighters over the border. Turkey, it appears, is hooked.

These requests come to light just a month after it transpired the CIA may be using faulty software in its own Predator programme. That was the accusation of software-maker IISi against computer firm Netezza (who have been providing hardware and software to the CIA), with the two reaching an out-of-court settlement last month. After these potentially deadly shenanigans, detailed here, let’s hope the MoD read their contracts for the Reapers (which are upgraded Predators) carefully.

Wednesday’s announcement of more UK drones realise plans to expand the technology in the Strategic Defence and Security Review. It also revisits a century-old dream: pacifying the east, on the cheap, from above.

If you include the ECM, PR and IFR sqns. 9 x Vulcan Sqns, 6 x Victor Sqns and 6 x Valiant sqns. 21 I make it. 23 though with the 2 OCUs!:ok:

PS, The BCDU at Finningley as well!!

FB:)

In the immediate aftermath of the SDR being published, the First Sea Lord posted a "heads up" on the Navy's website and referred to the "Naval Service" far more than Royal Navy:suspect:

Now that it's no longer politically correct to have a Police Force, who knows what's being planned. UKDF Air Component:rolleyes:

Guys I think that you're all using the wrong planning assumption. Post afghan withdrawal we're not going to have an active role on the world stage. We'll stll send out BATTs, but our large scale participation in coalition operations as the UK is at an end. I'm thinking Danish/Dutch/Swedish participation levels at which point, as sad as it is, 6 FJ sqns etc is about it!

Three countries we're being compared to here, the sum total of their populations amounts to less than a third of ours. Some people seem too happy prophesying the end and disaster. Is it just because we're having to pick up the pieces of a disasterous government that nobody can possibly imagine an upturn in fortune somewhere along the line. The very report which sparked this thread did say much else besides. For one instance, the expectation, however, difficult to judge, that we could still end up with a 100 F35Cs, eventually.

FB:)

Give that man a prize!

In the future our contribution will be in proportion to our size i.e. tiny:rolleyes:

ORAC

A little knowledge is a dangerous thing - The Monthly Miscellany, Pope, 1774

The Netezza TwinFin is a data warehouse application that I can only imagine the CIA were using to store, retrieve and exploit imagery and metadata from Predator footage. Hence the line "a sophisticated, analytical software program, known as Geospatial"

It is no-where near the C2 links for the aircraft or even the collect part of the system. :ugh:

Mate, that is a poor example to bring to bear on why we should (or should not) have RPAS/UAS in HM Forces and yet another ill-informed rubbishing of a great system that is saving lives and providing one of our only assymetric weapons in this war.

iRaven