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ORAC 11th Jun 2010 08:18

Iran vs Israel
 
Debka File: Iran's Gaza-bound ships ready for clash with Israel - Ahmadinejad

An Iranian sea convoy will back up the Turkish campaign to break Israel's blockade of Gaza.

Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad assured Turkish leaders whom he met in Istanbul Tuesday, Jan. 8 that the vessels due to enter the disputed waters within days will not shrink from a head-on clash with Israel's Navy and Air Force exclusion forces. "We'll breach the Gaza blockade," the Iranian president vowed. The Iranian Red Crescent vessels will carry "volunteer marines" of the Revolutionary Guards "who will teach the Israelis a lesson."

Tehran's "humanitarian convoy" for Gaza will consist of three Iranian vessels flying Red Crescent flags.

debkafile's intelligence sources report that he promised Turkish leaders to attach Iranian warships and submarines to the Red Crescent ships for their voyage through the Red Sea, the Suez Canal and into the Mediterranean. For some months, one or two Iranian submarines have been deployed in the Mediterranean using Syrian naval port facilities. The showdown between Turkey and Israel, said Ahmadinejad, "will change many issues in the world and mark the final countdown for Israel's existence. It shows that it has no room in the region and no one is ready to live alongside it."

British Foreign Secretary William Hague condemned Iran’s plan to send aid boats to Gaza, warning that the move would deliberately aggravate an already tense situation. “It is not helpful, and probably it is not designed to be helpful, he said. Russian Prime Pinister Vladimir Putin, for his part, promised to join Ankara in bringing the Israeli attack on the Turkish flotilla before the United Nations.

The Iranian and Turkish leaders meeting in Istanbul Monday and Tuesday finalized a plan to synchronize the flotilla's approach to Gaza's shores with the UN Security Council vote on sanctions against Iran, whereupon Turkey, Brazil and Lebanon, who are SC members, will halt the procedure and turn the session around to the unfolding sea battle between Iran and Israel. The sanctions vote will be buried by the sounds of war.

Monday, June 7, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton predicted "Iran would pull some stunt in the next couple of days" to divert attention from the unity within the Security Council.

According to our sources, the Iranian convoy will consist of a cargo ship loaded with food and other essentials, medicines and building materials; the second will carry the "volunteer" marines; and the third will be a floating hospital to be anchored permanently in Egyptian Mediterranean territorial waters opposite the divided Gaza-Egyptian town of Rafah. Small boats will ferry patients between Gaza and the hospital ship. Tehran calculates that the Israeli navy will not attack boats carrying sick people and will be constrained from venturing into Egyptian territorial waters to hit the floating hospital. By this means, Tehran will dismantle Israel's sea blockade while also gaining a military presence off the shores of Gaza.

AS details of this scheme are drawn up in Istanbul, Israeli leaders are spending hour of hour, day after day, quibbling over the format of an inquiry commission for studying the legal aspects of the hapless commando raid they ordered against the Mavi Marmara on May 31. Have they formed any plans for countering the Iranian-Turkish scheme to drive Tehran's flotilla through the Gaza blockade? And if so, where will the interception take place? On the Red Sea, where the Iranian Navy has a large presence, at the entrance to the Gulf of Suez or close to Gaza?

An Israel operation against Iranian vessels on any of these sea lanes would pose formidable difficulties.

green granite 11th Jun 2010 08:38

Does the Israeli navy have submarines? If so plausible denial comes to mind........... wasn't us guv, someone else did it to make it look like us.

Pure Pursuit 11th Jun 2010 08:42

Well, this could be interesting although I 'm fairly sure that nothing will actually materialise from this talk. However, if it did, it would prove to be a valuable reminder that out forces must not be 100 Herrick centric and that the RN still has a vital role in protecting British interests.

Trim Stab 11th Jun 2010 10:09


They do have some diesel boats however, I suspect that crew proficiency will not be particularly high.
They are actually believed to have nuclear strike capability from their submarines.
Israel Stations Nuclear Missile Sub off Iran

Can their F-15's launch their Gabriel anti-shipping missile? Or are the Gabriels just on their missile boats?

Low Flier 11th Jun 2010 11:48

GlobalSecurity.org lists Gabriel III as air-surface.

Hard to see how the Iranians expect to protect that second boat in their flotilla from becoming toast.

TEEEJ 11th Jun 2010 12:48

Whenever you see 'Debka' you really have to stop reading. Their analysis of military matters has been a laughing stock on military forums for years.

Debka.com - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Green Granite,

Israel operates a number of German supplied Dolphin Class diesel-electrics.

NTI: Submarine: Israel Capabilities

TJ

mad_jock 11th Jun 2010 13:31

I met one of the Israel sub skippers at cowes. And shall we say he knew exactlly where the old green kettle pub used to be and fishermans carpark diving site.

air pig 11th Jun 2010 23:07

Israel sends its sub commanders to do Perisher, need you say more about submarine capabilities.

Archimedes 11th Jun 2010 23:35


The Iranian Red Crescent vessels will carry "volunteer marines" of the Revolutionary Guards "who will teach the Israelis a lesson."
Did he ask the Red Crescent about this? I imagine that it'd blow the principles expressed here and here out of the water (possibly not the best choice of phrase in the circumstances...)

Thelma Viaduct 11th Jun 2010 23:38

Another non-story, let them blow each other up, hopefully like the Koreans in that other thread a few weeks back.

The less choppers on the planet, the better.

Jobza Guddun 12th Jun 2010 17:50

Well, if the Iranians do send a couple of their boats to play in the Med, at least we've got the well-proven ASW platform to keep tabs on them...

PTT 12th Jun 2010 23:17


Whenever you see 'Debka' you really have to stop reading. Their analysis of military matters has been a laughing stock on military forums for years.

Debka.com - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Whether Debka is a load of bunk or not, I'm just amused that anyone would use Wikipedia as a source of information to discredit another source of information - nice one! :}

TheSmiter 13th Jun 2010 10:38

Green light from Saudi:

Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites - Times Online

Methinks the nuclear surgeons are preparing the operating theatre. :eek:

TEEEJ 13th Jun 2010 11:55

PTT,

:}

Although Wiki undoubtedly has its faults, that entry accurately sums up Debka and its agenda.

TJ

Buster Hyman 13th Jun 2010 13:59


Russian Prime Pinister Vladimir Putin, for his part, promised to join Ankara in bringing the Israeli attack on the Turkish flotilla before the United Nations.
Is he using a pitching wedge, or a sand wedge to further deteriorate Turkeys alliance with the West?

Lonewolf_50 14th Jun 2010 13:22


They are actually believed to have nuclear strike capability from their submarines. Israel Stations Nuclear Missile Sub off Iran
In the for what it's worth department, any sub with 53cm tubes is now a nuclear missile sub according to your link and your argument.

All one has to do is get one's hands on a nuclear tipped missile or torp that fits the tube ...

With that in mind, the next time any nation's submarines deploys, they have deployed a Nuclear Missile Sub.

Which, when I think of it, is a pretty dishonest way of describing things.

The no-kidding nuclear missile subs, carrying SLBM's (Delta III's, Ohio Class, Vanguard class) are a much different kettle of fish than subs carrying cruise missiles ... that may or may not have a nuclear payload.

Cruise missiles can be defended against with conventional air defense, albeit EW is very handy.

Ballistic missiles? No.

Compare TLAM (N) (Tomahawk with a nuclear payload) and SS-N-21 (Russian cruise missile with a 200 kilo ton warhead) with a Polaris.

Small wonder the US and Soviets, in the 80's, wrestled with the arms race implications of cruise missiles with nuclear tips.

Trim Stab 14th Jun 2010 13:52


With that in mind, the next time any nation's submarines deploys, they have deployed a Nuclear Missile Sub.

Only if they have a deliverable nuclear capability - which Israel does.

checkerboard6 14th Jun 2010 18:15

Its only a matter of time IMHO . . .

Royalistflyer 15th Jun 2010 06:48

This is seriously worrying - there is no doubt that the Israelis WILL defend themselves. They know (even if we don't) that Fatah want them to beat Hamas into the ground. Fatah will make public murmurings, but they want Israel to defeat Hamas, no question - they are a different brand of Muslim - Fatah is largely secular. Egypt wants Israel to beat Hamas as well - Hamas is fanatical moslem and is related to the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt which the Egyptian government fights - which is why the Egyptians have blockaded Gaza as well. So Israel WILL defend itself - and the Iranians are just plain crazy - certainly stupid enough to provoke a war. The only thing that will give them real pause is the thought that at the moment they don't have nuclear weapons and Israel does ....... unless they have somehow made strides that we are unaware of ... which I doubt. So it will be interesting to see how this plays out. Will Obama be forced to step in and help Israel - while he is already engaged in Afghanistan? or is this an Iranian distraction for Afghanistan. Seriously interesting.

vernon99 15th Jun 2010 08:07

No its better than that, the USA cannot afford a war with Iran, so they leave Israel to do the dirty work, let them fight each other, once it looks like Iran is done for, they can then step in and stop the conflict, chastise Israel, maybe cancel the billions in aid they give Israel each year, saving the USA a fortune and hopefully bringing a more stable middle east.


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