High altitude object shot down

[fltlt]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Michael, I have been hit by a baseball that was thrown at about 75 miles per hour;
I'd not like to be hit by a metal object falling at about 100 miles per hour (and me with no batting helmet)
Is this where I observe that absence of evidence is not evidence of absence? Maybe ET really wants to phone home.
Pun intended or not, still got a chuckle out of me.
That quote still gets mileage. I wonder if it's in Bartlett's Familiar quotations yet.

For fltlt: About 40 years ago, speaking of high tech radars tracking things, I got to watch the CIWS (Vulcan Phalanx) on a USN cruiser continuously track / adjust its barrels toward my helicopter as we were doing some cargo hook transfers from our ship to theirs.
It was a bit un nerving, even though I knew that it wasn't in "auto" mode. I asked the Weapons officer on our ship (a destroyer) about it after we landed.
He shrugged, and said that it was tracking the tips of our rotor blades.

AEGIS was a game changer in the days of Exocet, Sunburn, et al. However, every radar back then had some inconvenient issue(s) that were part of the bag of tools. Judging from the Navy and contractor reactions, it certainly wasn’t an issue on their radar, pun intended, not many missiles arrive that slow, someone on their side had “What If’d” and pushed the all hands on deck button.
We also flew to qualify Hellfire on Apache, and don’t even mention Sgt York.

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by wiggy

Could be that... OTOH the images we're seeing of the downed stuff in Ukraine seems to show not much more that a simple met style balloon with radar reflector, so I wonder if it's a case of the Russians thinking "we'll have a go at wot the Chinese just did, well as best we can. It might give us a clue as to where some AD assets are and it means the Ukes might have to expend some ordnance...".

Doubt it's anything much more complex than that.

I don't see how these originated in Russia, looking at the wind patterns. Nobody? has given us a height but launch points west and north of Kyiv look the part.
The hugely sophisticated models for tracking Chernobyl and much smaller plumes might also be back engineered to locate origin assuming the balloons got to altitude soon after launch.
No media curiosity, they just blame Russia. Very unusually, I think that is blx.

But then I might be misreading the seaweed and balls crystal.

[RatherBeFlying]

Hobbyists are getting concerned

Hobby Club’s Missing Balloon Feared Shot Down By USAF

It seems pico balloons can stay up for a number of circumnavigations

Good luck finding a shot down 11 gram tracker and a few mylar shreds in the middle of nowhere.

[ORAC]

Reference Russian balloons over Ukraine - they’re sending hundreds of them fitted with simple radar angle reflectors to confuse and clutter AD and SAM radars.

https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/sta...G4NbUYa4miAeWA

​​​​​​​

[henra]

Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying

Hobby Club’s Missing Balloon Feared Shot Down By USAF

Ding, Ding, Ding! I guess we have a winner ;-).
This ticks about all the boxes.

Ahhh, btw. regarding winners:
Kudos to NORAD and the radar operators for detecting these on radar and kudos to Raytheon for being able to aquire it with the seeker. Impressive. At first glance maybe a potential waste of taxpayers money. At second glance an impressive achievement if true.

[B Fraser]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

I don't see how these originated in Russia, looking at the wind patterns.

Mr Baston sir,

Back in the days when I indulged in aerial adventures, I applied for a Hysplit account so I could calculate the probable path of long distance balloon flights. The system at the time required a user licence and they were reluctant to provide one as NOAA were concerned that certain groups were interested in releasing unpleasant substances for unpleasant purposes. I managed to persuade them that my intentions were (mostly) above board and I found it very useful. I never did break any ballooning records.

Today, the general public can run projections both forward and backwards so I hope you enjoy calculating the trajectories using the model found at the link below. The radar reflector in the image looks nothing like the ones I have used on sondes so Ivan is probably causing mischief with Ukraine's rader assets. There's no image of the met package that would be suspended below the reflector.

READY HYSPLIT (noaa.gov)

[hoistop]

Originally Posted by _Agrajag_

Anyone taking bets on how long it will take a YouTuber to pull a prank with something like this? Watched a YouTube video last year. Bloke faked an engine failure in a light aircraft. Baled out (he just happened to be wearing a skydiving rig) and videoed the crash. Did the whole thing to get clicks and earn money.

If tosspots will do stuff like that for clicks, then there has to be a good chance one of them will stage a "weather balloon" prank.

Yes, but that bloke had his pilot licence revoked by FAA and I hope the authorities will find a way to take action for causing damage and polution.
Intentionally sending an object in the air that will present a hazard to air navigation can be considered as an unlawful interference and appropriatelly punished - just like shining a laser to an aircraft, dazzling the pilots.

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by B Fraser

Mr Baston sir,

Back in the days when I indulged in aerial adventures, I applied for a Hysplit account so I could calculate the probable path of long distance balloon flights. The system at the time required a user licence and they were reluctant to provide one as NOAA were concerned that certain groups were interested in releasing unpleasant substances for unpleasant purposes. I managed to persuade them that my intentions were (mostly) above board and I found it very useful. I never did break any ballooning records.

Today, the general public can run projections both forward and backwards so I hope you enjoy calculating the trajectories using the model found at the link below. The radar reflector in the image looks nothing like the ones I have used on sondes so Ivan is probably causing mischief with Ukraine's rader assets. There's no image of the met package that would be suspended below the reflector.

READY HYSPLIT (noaa.gov)

Thank you very much indeed, I will study!

[FullOppositeRudder]

Another possibility:

https://www.rtl-sdr.com/the-us-airfo...J1VytAHHs6urvQ

[m0nkfish]

Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying

Hobby Club’s Missing Balloon Feared Shot Down By USAF

It seems pico balloons can stay up for a number of circumnavigations

Good luck finding a shot down 11 gram tracker and a few mylar shreds in the middle of nowhere.

I think if this is true then it does raise serious questions about the competency of the decision makers, and maybe the current culture within the US political and military sphere. I can't remember the last time the US shot something down in their airspace, making these actions incredible regardless of what they were shooting. The general approach appears to be shoot first then ask questions, which IMHO is irresponsible. One would like to hope that the downing of Iran Air Flight 655 was a wake up call but it appears the US are still very much trigger happy and I fear that another incident is inevitable.

I understand that governments and their militaries have a responsibility to protect their citizens, but they should act reasonably and proportionately to any perceived threat. Yes, a UFO could be a deployment device for biological/chemical weapons (a supposition made by an earlier poster) but the severity of such a threat should be balanced by its probability which can be estimated with reasonable accuracy with appropriate intelligence. Biden may have been trying to show strength, but it appears he panicked and has actually shown weakness. No doubt many posters will disagree with me, but take a step back and see how embarrassing and ridiculous it is that it appears the most powerful country in the world could not identify a toy balloon and shot it out of the sky with a missile.

[ORAC]

https://alert5.com/2023/02/17/japans...lloons-drones/

Japan’s ruling parties agree to proposal to shot down balloons, drones

Japan’s Ministry of Defense has proposed a relaxation of the self-defense force’s weapons use policy in response to the threat of foreign drones and balloons violating Japanese airspace.

The country’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito Party have agreed to the proposal, which would allow for the use of weapons against drones and balloons that obstruct the safe flight of aircraft, even if such action doesn’t qualify as legitimate self-defense.

​​​​​​​The lawmakers were briefed on the proposal on Feb. 16 and approved the idea on the same day.

[DodgyGeezer]

Yes, a UFO could be a deployment device for biological/chemical weapons (a supposition made by an earlier poster) but the severity of such a threat should be balanced by its probability which can be estimated with reasonable accuracy with appropriate intelligence....

I stated that it was POSSIBLE to distribute bio weapons this way - but I never supposed that this was the case. The problem for intelligence staff is that if you have an unidentified balloon there is no way of telling what it might be, short of examining it. And the easiest way to examine it is to bring it to the ground. If you can engage the object economically and safely, that seems to be the best course to take. What else would you have them do - find a way to examine it in mid-air?

[m0nkfish]

Originally Posted by DodgyGeezer

Yes, a UFO could be a deployment device for biological/chemical weapons (a supposition made by an earlier poster) but the severity of such a threat should be balanced by its probability which can be estimated with reasonable accuracy with appropriate intelligence....

I stated that it was POSSIBLE to distribute bio weapons this way - but I never supposed that this was the case. The problem for intelligence staff is that if you have an unidentified balloon there is no way of telling what it might be, short of examining it. And the easiest way to examine it is to bring it to the ground. If you can engage the object economically and safely, that seems to be the best course to take. What else would you have them do - find a way to examine it in mid-air?

Yes, exactly that. Don't tell me its beyond the technical capabilities of the most advanced military in the world to make sufficient observations of a balloon in its own airspace such that it can be reasonably satisfied that said balloon is not a floating weapon of mass destruction. It doesn't seem to me to be that 'easy' to examine it by blowing it out of the sky. Firstly you have to shut down the airspace, you also have to deploy AAR assets, fast jets, etc, then use a rather expensive missile to deflate the thing. Assuming anything worth examining actually survives and falls to the ground, you then have to find the pieces, something that (with the exception of the Chinese balloon that was a legitimate target, albeit shot down a little on the late side) the US and Canada have so far failed to do. Maybe if they hadn't shot them down they might have been able to observe them sufficiently so as to be satisfied what they were and who they belonged to.

[DodgyGeezer]

Originally Posted by m0nkfish

Yes, exactly that. Don't tell me its beyond the technical capabilities of the most advanced military in the world to make sufficient observations of a balloon in its own airspace such that it can be reasonably satisfied that said balloon is not a floating weapon of mass destruction. ....

I think ypu have an exaggerated view of the capabilities of modern technology, if you think that it can determine whether a black box at 40,000 ft contains a virus without going near it.

[m0nkfish]

Originally Posted by DodgyGeezer

I think ypu have an exaggerated view of the capabilities of modern technology, if you think that it can determine whether a black box at 40,000 ft contains a virus without going near it.

I'm fairly certain the technology exists to identify an amateur balloon. Strikes me as remarkably paranoid to start assuming any balloon that isn't immediately identifiable is carrying a deadly pathogen. Presumably this isn't the first time balloons of unknown origin have been found in US airspace, so why start shooting them down now? All stinks of politics to me but we are all entitled to our opinions and I certainly respect yours.

[Wokkafans]

[ve3id]

I know ham radio is no longer fashionable in our consumer society, but do you have to go and shoot down our innocent experimental balloons?
https://www.rtl-sdr.com/the-us-airfo...n-over-canada/

This is too much!
73 de Nigel ve3id

[MarcK]

Here is a live track of 3 balloons. One over Japan, one over the Pacific, and one over Mississippi (at track time:

https://aprs.fi/#!mt=roadmap&z=7&cal...3600&tail=3600

​​​​​​​This information was available to the government, if they chose to listen...

[PukinDog]

Originally Posted by m0nkfish

I think if this is true then it does raise serious questions about the competency of the decision makers, and maybe the current culture within the US political and military sphere. I can't remember the last time the US shot something down in their airspace, making these actions incredible regardless of what they were shooting. The general approach appears to be shoot first then ask questions, which IMHO is irresponsible. One would like to hope that the downing of Iran Air Flight 655 was a wake up call but it appears the US are still very much trigger happy and I fear that another incident is inevitable.

I understand that governments and their militaries have a responsibility to protect their citizens, but they should act reasonably and proportionately to any perceived threat. Yes, a UFO could be a deployment device for biological/chemical weapons (a supposition made by an earlier poster) but the severity of such a threat should be balanced by its probability which can be estimated with reasonable accuracy with appropriate intelligence. Biden may have been trying to show strength, but it appears he panicked and has actually shown weakness. No doubt many posters will disagree with me, but take a step back and see how embarrassing and ridiculous it is that it appears the most powerful country in the world could not identify a toy balloon and shot it out of the sky with a missile.

Or, it could be a U.S. False Balloon operation designed to smoke out and identify those who always default to assigning the worst possible motives, attributes, and conduct to certain Others under the guise of being a "concerned 3rd party".

Or not, because sometimes it's better to take off and nuke the site from orbit, just to be sure.

[Ninthace]

I think that is over thinking it. 🤔