inews - 'RAF admits ‘urgent’ need to solve shortage of trained pilots''
Thanks for posting those contract details, Lima Juliet. https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2022/W45/786301120
But that document appears to be the source for at least some of the iNews article.
For instance, section 2, THE REQUIREMENT, starts:
The Authority urgently needs to increase the number of trained aircrew to match operational demands. The Authority is seeking consultancy support for guidance on how best to:
1. Uncover the true drivers of the aircrew recruitment-training-deployment processes and visualise this for easy consumption
2. Allow RAF to simulate outcomes (e.g. number of trained aircrew over time, cost incurred) given a selected set of potential interventions and engage stakeholders across the organisation on what the path forward should be
3. Work with our existing tech systems and data partners to develop a roadmap for how to deploy and scale appropriate digital tools and hardwire appropriate change into the organisation.
It then goes on to detail the deliverables that you quote.
So I’m at a loss to understand your invective against iNews, which you accuse of
It seems to me that iNews has done us all a favour by publicising this, and that, very far from offering “total tripe”, the paper is actually reflecting a deeply disturbing situation that the taxpayer needs to be aware of.
airsound
But that document appears to be the source for at least some of the iNews article.
For instance, section 2, THE REQUIREMENT, starts:
The Authority urgently needs to increase the number of trained aircrew to match operational demands. The Authority is seeking consultancy support for guidance on how best to:
1. Uncover the true drivers of the aircrew recruitment-training-deployment processes and visualise this for easy consumption
2. Allow RAF to simulate outcomes (e.g. number of trained aircrew over time, cost incurred) given a selected set of potential interventions and engage stakeholders across the organisation on what the path forward should be
3. Work with our existing tech systems and data partners to develop a roadmap for how to deploy and scale appropriate digital tools and hardwire appropriate change into the organisation.
It then goes on to detail the deliverables that you quote.
So I’m at a loss to understand your invective against iNews, which you accuse of
slack research by an editorial team who couldn’t even be bothered to do a 2 minute search on Google and read the links.
airsound
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"There is no reason the RAF cannot get the job done if sufficient resources and management priority is given to the task."
And there is the problem - what we're getting is another "investigation" which will "make recommendations" no doubt. The system is almost designed to do nothing
And there is the problem - what we're getting is another "investigation" which will "make recommendations" no doubt. The system is almost designed to do nothing
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I would have thought getting enough aircrew would be a management priority, rather than new uniforms or terminology. But I'm an old bottom-feeding ex-ATCO.
Below the Glidepath - not correcting
"There is no reason the RAF cannot get the job done if sufficient resources and management priority is given to the task."
And there is the problem - what we're getting is another "investigation" which will "make recommendations" no doubt. The system is almost designed to do nothing
And there is the problem - what we're getting is another "investigation" which will "make recommendations" no doubt. The system is almost designed to do nothing
'Uncover the true drivers of the aircrew recruitment-training-deployment processes and visualise this for easy consumption"
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The requirement perfectly demonstrates the problem:
” True drivers”, “potential interventions “, “stakeholders”,”roadmap”, “ hardwire” etc
Fashionable management speak nonsense instead of military common sense.
A bit less of the former and more of the latter would by itself help the retention problem a lot.
” True drivers”, “potential interventions “, “stakeholders”,”roadmap”, “ hardwire” etc
Fashionable management speak nonsense instead of military common sense.
A bit less of the former and more of the latter would by itself help the retention problem a lot.
Well the fundamental problem is that they're focussing on recruitment. I don't have the link, but USAF figured out a couple of years ago after extensive study that it is far more effective to retain than recruit. But recruitment gives easily measured statistics....
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The RAF have paid Ł480,000 to a US consultancy firm to tell them how they can fix the problem. I could have given them a few nuggets for a lot less. In fact, instead of doing what the MOD always do (pay a bunch of money to a civilian company for ‘advice’, most of which comes from recently retired military personnel) they could just do a better job of listening to the people they already have. You know, those uniformed SQEP that turn up for work every day and tell their chain of command when things aren’t right. Those same people that get ignored and fed up and then leave. Those same people that may even end up working for consultancy firms.
On balance, maybe let’s just leave the RAF to it and allow those people to rake it in as consultants. The RAF hierarchy will never learn.
Remember: money is not the answer.
BV
On balance, maybe let’s just leave the RAF to it and allow those people to rake it in as consultants. The RAF hierarchy will never learn.
Remember: money is not the answer.
BV
Funny the link must have been corrupted because it is missing what should also be there:
Deliverables not to be included:
1) Any result that would indicate poor planning, lack of prioritization, failure to adequately resource training, or any other causal factor that was due to the failures of the senior leadership managing the recruitment-training-deployment process
2) Any models that would clearly show the actual costs and project effect on operational readiness for different interventions on the recruitment-training-deployment process
3) A high level roadmap that would provide a practical framework on how to address the current failures in the recruitment-training-deployment process
Deliverables not to be included:
1) Any result that would indicate poor planning, lack of prioritization, failure to adequately resource training, or any other causal factor that was due to the failures of the senior leadership managing the recruitment-training-deployment process
2) Any models that would clearly show the actual costs and project effect on operational readiness for different interventions on the recruitment-training-deployment process
3) A high level roadmap that would provide a practical framework on how to address the current failures in the recruitment-training-deployment process
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Hey RAF recruiters,
I have a bunch of flying time mostly on freighters from small twin turboprops to heavy four engine turboprops and the heaviest of jets.
My great grandpapa came from England and apparently, the other one was from northern Ireland(I think one of the loyal groups). The other side is Eastern European but nobody's perfect.
Anyways, I would be happy with a month on, month off schedule on the A400 with first class tickets to work like my old company provided.
But be advised...
(a) I am a straight white male
(b) I don't want to work with stuffy people that have superiority attitudes with colonials.
(c) While I liked the Queen, Charles is a bit iffy(but I like him more than Harry now).
(d) Flying duties only, not desk stuff, etc.
(e) I don't like marmite(but I do like Elizabeth Hurley).
(f) They are called chips not crisps.
(g) I have previous British aircraft experience and know what a punkalouver is.
Call me if you need me. You know you do.
I have a bunch of flying time mostly on freighters from small twin turboprops to heavy four engine turboprops and the heaviest of jets.
My great grandpapa came from England and apparently, the other one was from northern Ireland(I think one of the loyal groups). The other side is Eastern European but nobody's perfect.
Anyways, I would be happy with a month on, month off schedule on the A400 with first class tickets to work like my old company provided.
But be advised...
(a) I am a straight white male
(b) I don't want to work with stuffy people that have superiority attitudes with colonials.
(c) While I liked the Queen, Charles is a bit iffy(but I like him more than Harry now).
(d) Flying duties only, not desk stuff, etc.
(e) I don't like marmite(but I do like Elizabeth Hurley).
(f) They are called chips not crisps.
(g) I have previous British aircraft experience and know what a punkalouver is.
Call me if you need me. You know you do.
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And yet you can’t spell punkah louvre correctly. Might be a stopper. That and finding our King ( and yours I assume ) a bit iffy. I wouldn’t mention that at the interview.
airsound - OK, I’ll spell out the total tripe for you from the article:https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/ra...pilots-2083957
Well, it isn’t, as per the contracts link, it’s actually been brought in to develop a software tool that can model the current situation and then be able to provide and visualise what options the the RAF management using it might wish to take. Of course, to make that tool they need to understand the flying training pipeline and course lengths (courses, capacity, etc…). They also need to understand the recruiting methods and timelines for an average ‘time of flight’ for a civvy being recruited and also how long someone takes to get through an OCU, LCR and CR work ups. Once you have that data then the software tool will allow the user, the RAF/RN/Army, to understand where problems may be starting to occur and hopefully react faster towards fixes. It will also allow the Services to create hypothetical scenarios to understand what effects things like Defence Reviews and aircraft grounding/pausing issues might do to the throughput. So, they have totally misread the SUR that is shared online (indeed if they read it all). As for Ł480k, sure it’s a lot of money, but about the going rate for something like that (my other half works in IT in the banking sector - they charge similar amounts for similar projects). The going rate for a single contractor is likely to be Ł1500-Ł2000 per day, so if you have a team of 5 and 40 chargeable days of work (which is 2 months) then that is is Ł10,000 multiplied by 40 or Ł400k.
Well go figure, pretty much all aircraft types ever delivered have had fewer qualified to fly it in the early days than the manufacturers are churning out. If it takes 4-6 years to recruit and train aircrew and only 2 years to manufacture, then you can easily find you have more aircraft than crews to fly them. You also have to wait for delivery before you can learn to fly them! It was the same for Tornado and Typhoon, it was probably the same for Hurricane and Spitfire too.
No it hasn’t. It has been tasked to produce a forecasting tool to be used in the future. This is what that linked SUR on the contracts link states “Allow RAF to simulate outcomes (e.g. number of trained aircrew over time, cost incurred) given a selected set of potential interventions and engage stakeholders across the organisation on what the path forward should be.” But iNews seem incapable of understanding basic English (or they didn’t read it!).
Not true. For a short time in the summer that was looking like the upcoming situation but recent changes and agreed programmes of action have seen significant changes to those numbers for the better. So much so that some have been restreamed to fast jet and rotary types in the past month or so.
So, you go ahead, read and believe what you like. But ask yourself this: what do you know about that the press is also factually incorrect about or just plain making it up? Then transpose it to all the things you don’t know about and consider whether that may be “tripe” too, as my past experiences of mainstream media have.
Now was that Haddock or Cod with your chips?
A review into the aircrew shortage has been commissioned, with the RAF bringing in the Boston Consulting Group on a Ł480,000 contract to suggest potential solutions and to gauge support for different options.
Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, has revealed that at one point last year that the UK had more F35 Lightning II stealth fighter jets than it had pilots to fly them and that “the pilot pipeline was not where I wanted it to be”. By November, the situation had improved with 27 F35s and 33 pilots, but that included Australian and US pilots over on exchange and was “not a staggering amount”, Mr Wallace admitted to MPs.
The latest six-week long Boston Consulting review for the RAF has been looking at the “true drivers” of the problems and costing different potential solutions or “interventions” to increase the number of trained aircrew.
Some pilots for some spy planes are expected to have to wait three-and-a-half years for training, while there is a two-year wait for those learning to fly Chinook helicopters, Sky News reported in August.
So, you go ahead, read and believe what you like. But ask yourself this: what do you know about that the press is also factually incorrect about or just plain making it up? Then transpose it to all the things you don’t know about and consider whether that may be “tripe” too, as my past experiences of mainstream media have.
Now was that Haddock or Cod with your chips?
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Anyways, I probably failed at the straight white male part(regardless of total experience). See below.
https://metro.co.uk/2022/08/17/raf-p...%20compromised.
Last edited by punkalouver; 15th Jan 2023 at 02:44.
Strewth. The spread of BS Bingo continues,. I'm with 'mahogany bob' - whatever happened to KISS? This sounds like something designed to cover up a fairly obvious clanger in somebody's forecasting. Not unusual.
.
It's not as if we have a large Air Force - or at laast its flying elements - these days. Nor is to the first time the Forces have got this wrong - as Lima Juliet commenst. So, maybe not enough 'learning' going up at the top end, if there is any truth to this. (And given what a current RAF pilot 'trainee in waiting' told me just a few weeks ago, I suspect there is some truth to it)
Surely any modestly competent manager should be able to figure out approximately what is needed using pencil and paper, or maybe a spreadsheet, just to look fancy and allow a few more tweaks and side estimates. We used to predict ahead our need for competent field experienced engineering staff in several complex & sometimes interlinked specialities worldwide for several years ahead, using spreadsheets to back up our pencil and paper intial estimates. It worked well enough for us to prosper and didn't cost the earth - get it wrong and the company would go bust - a major incentive!
Given those 'deliverables' brings to my mind the advice from RJ MIrchell to Jeffrey Quill, many moons ago - “If anybody ever tells you anything about an aeroplane which is so bloody complicated you can't understand it, take it from me: it's all balls.”
.
It's not as if we have a large Air Force - or at laast its flying elements - these days. Nor is to the first time the Forces have got this wrong - as Lima Juliet commenst. So, maybe not enough 'learning' going up at the top end, if there is any truth to this. (And given what a current RAF pilot 'trainee in waiting' told me just a few weeks ago, I suspect there is some truth to it)
Surely any modestly competent manager should be able to figure out approximately what is needed using pencil and paper, or maybe a spreadsheet, just to look fancy and allow a few more tweaks and side estimates. We used to predict ahead our need for competent field experienced engineering staff in several complex & sometimes interlinked specialities worldwide for several years ahead, using spreadsheets to back up our pencil and paper intial estimates. It worked well enough for us to prosper and didn't cost the earth - get it wrong and the company would go bust - a major incentive!
Given those 'deliverables' brings to my mind the advice from RJ MIrchell to Jeffrey Quill, many moons ago - “If anybody ever tells you anything about an aeroplane which is so bloody complicated you can't understand it, take it from me: it's all balls.”
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It was Treasury pressure to address the variability of the annual spend on flying training which compelled the MOD to contract it out. MFTS as contracted was certainly steady and predictable, but ignored the fact that the variability of the spend reflected the variability of the throughput requirement as outflow rates, organisational changes and defence review decisions on front line numbers worked their way through the system. Guess what, those things are still unpredictable (COVID and its effect on inflow/outflow numbers being just one example of a surprise factor).
I wonder if any consultant would have the courage to recommend terminating MFTS, bringing aircrew pipeline management back fully in house where it belongs, and accepting that the system should be sized to allow ups and downs in demand? Training its front line aircrew is part of the core business of an air force; international students should be used as backfill during periods of low domestic demand rather than being the priority output (as might appear to be the case right now).
I wonder if any consultant would have the courage to recommend terminating MFTS, bringing aircrew pipeline management back fully in house where it belongs, and accepting that the system should be sized to allow ups and downs in demand? Training its front line aircrew is part of the core business of an air force; international students should be used as backfill during periods of low domestic demand rather than being the priority output (as might appear to be the case right now).
I think you will find that we are not just short of pilots, WSOP/O as well, I think the P8 fleet is badly undermanned.
The civilian training system is at fault but our major problem is retention, far easier to keep someone in than train someone new but lack of quality leadership never appears to be aware enough to care.
I enjoyed my 31 years but glad i am not part of the farce now.
The civilian training system is at fault but our major problem is retention, far easier to keep someone in than train someone new but lack of quality leadership never appears to be aware enough to care.
I enjoyed my 31 years but glad i am not part of the farce now.
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Timelord
Nope - UKMFTS manage their own pipelines in flying training and they don’t even run everything. For example all of the ISTAR Mission Aircrew are still trained via the RAF and another contractor provides some key parts of that too. Also, this is a far wider than a tool for running the somewhat small bit that is UKMFTS. Here is an idea of the actual complexity:
Finally, understanding the whole aircrew demographic, their contract lengths, their extant Returns of Service, their medical status, their competences and qualifications, their hours, their preferences, etc… Also, understanding outflow, trying to forecast and understanding/estimating it within the tool to try and get an idea.
At present, all of this is run and managed in very distinct and localised ‘swim lanes’ where really only starts and finishes are understood at a basic level. Most are run on simple spreadsheets or worse. You need to remember that it might take, without any holds, a year to recruit someone, a further year for Phase 1 and PET, then 2-3 years for Phase part 1 then maybe up to a further year for those OCUs and a LCR/CR work up. There lies the problem - from understanding a requirement on the front line for a basic Wingman or Co-Pilot, then you are looking at a 5, or maybe 6 years with a bit of holding, lead time.
Tricky - doesn’t even go near describing it. Especially if you are fiscally constrained where any waste/excess is frowned upon and everything has to be “just in time”. Hopefully, that gives a slightly better understanding of what is needed to managing the aircrew requirements? Next add in Engineers, Air Traffic, Weapons Controllers, Fire Fighters, Med Services, Coppers, Scribblies (we are doing very badly for HR) and the myriad of other supporting staff and you can see how such a tool might be useful once proven to manage 10% of the RAF (which is the very rough numbers of aircrew compared to the rest).
Nope - UKMFTS manage their own pipelines in flying training and they don’t even run everything. For example all of the ISTAR Mission Aircrew are still trained via the RAF and another contractor provides some key parts of that too. Also, this is a far wider than a tool for running the somewhat small bit that is UKMFTS. Here is an idea of the actual complexity:
- Recruiting - AFCOs, UASs, OASC, Medicals (Capita initials and later ones at Cranwell) and then they come at different ages and some join from other Branches, Trades, Professions or even Services. All of that will affect the overall picture.
- Phase 1 training - Modular Initial Officer Training or Basic Recruit Training/DE SNCO. Some go straight through, some take a little longer. Some fail all together. All of that will affect the overall picture.
- Pre-Employment Training (PET) - AMTW with RAFCAM, SERE training, Centrifuge for those going on to live fly in Prefect (all types of Pilots inc RPAS), HF&CRM training at Cranwell and other course including the dunker for those going to helos. All of which will affect the overall picture.
- Phase 2 training Part 1 - UKMFTS do MAGS, EFT, BFT, MEPT, BRT, ART and AJT, plus Observer/Aircrewmen and WSO training on 750NAS and Airborne Specialist training on 45 Sqn - this is the bit that you correctly identify is managed by the contractor. Then 45 Sqn provide some ISTAR training with another contractor to provide WSO and WSOp for the ISTAR Forces. Then the WSOp (ISR) Lg get language training from the Defence School of Languages. There is much more to all of this and all of which will affect the overall picture.
- Phase 2 training Part 2 - OCUs and QFI/QHI work ups for Creamies and Skimmies. At the end of this they are deemed now ‘trained’ and are role disposed to their FL Sqns or to the Sqns at Valley or Shawbury. All of which affects the overall picture.
- Phase 3 training - LCR/CR workups or B2-B1 Instructor work ups. QWI, EWI, QHI, QFI courses galore. 2-ship work ups, 4-ship or ups, Captaincy upgrades, aircraft upgrades, etc…etc… the list goes on. Then you have things like IOD1-5, IMLC, AMLC, etc… Then you have MAA training, or display work ups, etc…etc… All of which affects the overall picture.
Finally, understanding the whole aircrew demographic, their contract lengths, their extant Returns of Service, their medical status, their competences and qualifications, their hours, their preferences, etc… Also, understanding outflow, trying to forecast and understanding/estimating it within the tool to try and get an idea.
At present, all of this is run and managed in very distinct and localised ‘swim lanes’ where really only starts and finishes are understood at a basic level. Most are run on simple spreadsheets or worse. You need to remember that it might take, without any holds, a year to recruit someone, a further year for Phase 1 and PET, then 2-3 years for Phase part 1 then maybe up to a further year for those OCUs and a LCR/CR work up. There lies the problem - from understanding a requirement on the front line for a basic Wingman or Co-Pilot, then you are looking at a 5, or maybe 6 years with a bit of holding, lead time.
Tricky - doesn’t even go near describing it. Especially if you are fiscally constrained where any waste/excess is frowned upon and everything has to be “just in time”. Hopefully, that gives a slightly better understanding of what is needed to managing the aircrew requirements? Next add in Engineers, Air Traffic, Weapons Controllers, Fire Fighters, Med Services, Coppers, Scribblies (we are doing very badly for HR) and the myriad of other supporting staff and you can see how such a tool might be useful once proven to manage 10% of the RAF (which is the very rough numbers of aircrew compared to the rest).
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1771 DELETE
Retention causes issues all of its own if you don’t keep a healthy churn going through. You end up with Dad’s/Mum’s Army with Cpl Jones everywhere. You also end up with too few with the reach to make Flt Cdr, Sqn Cdr p, Stn Cdr/CAW, Force Cdr, AOCs, DCOM Ops and potentially CAS/CDS. Therefore, only some retention is required and you can’t keep all or you end up with different challenges. Typically 30-40% of any workforce needs to keep moving up, 30-40% can leave and 30-40% can stagnate in retention. Those rates can vary a little, but if you retain say 60% of your workforce at the same rank - FS/MAcr/Flt Lt - then you bedblock the progress of the rest, then they leave due to a lack of advancement. So, retention is not the total answer. Even then, you must retain only those that you really need if they want to stay put.
But I agree, Mission Aircrew (WSO/WSOp) are just as important as the Pilots. Also, Engineers more than any other Branch/Profession/Trade are needed in support of the Aircrew and their aircraft. If those 2 fall over then you aren’t going anywhere!
Retention causes issues all of its own if you don’t keep a healthy churn going through. You end up with Dad’s/Mum’s Army with Cpl Jones everywhere. You also end up with too few with the reach to make Flt Cdr, Sqn Cdr p, Stn Cdr/CAW, Force Cdr, AOCs, DCOM Ops and potentially CAS/CDS. Therefore, only some retention is required and you can’t keep all or you end up with different challenges. Typically 30-40% of any workforce needs to keep moving up, 30-40% can leave and 30-40% can stagnate in retention. Those rates can vary a little, but if you retain say 60% of your workforce at the same rank - FS/MAcr/Flt Lt - then you bedblock the progress of the rest, then they leave due to a lack of advancement. So, retention is not the total answer. Even then, you must retain only those that you really need if they want to stay put.
But I agree, Mission Aircrew (WSO/WSOp) are just as important as the Pilots. Also, Engineers more than any other Branch/Profession/Trade are needed in support of the Aircrew and their aircraft. If those 2 fall over then you aren’t going anywhere!
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Mahogany…..
“KISS!”
IIRC A Very popular phrase around the Lacey Green bazaars the 80s. From our low level in the engineering staff food chain it sounded good, and we tried very, very hard to comply.
However, our view was that putting people who actually knew their jobs and were dedicated to making them work, was the ‘simplest’ option. Sadly the hierarchy did not see it that way, as there appeared to be few opportunities for career enhancing cost cutting. In fact, by ‘lean managing’ the lower levels, everything became so complicated higher up that KISS went out the window. Obscuration seemed to become the name of the game.
Kiss? - I don’t think it was given a chance….Sad
The ‘Deliverables to be delivered’ yukspeak above is pretty typical bulls1t! Sir Humphrey would be proud.
Just my personal opinion, mind. 😉
“KISS!”
IIRC A Very popular phrase around the Lacey Green bazaars the 80s. From our low level in the engineering staff food chain it sounded good, and we tried very, very hard to comply.
However, our view was that putting people who actually knew their jobs and were dedicated to making them work, was the ‘simplest’ option. Sadly the hierarchy did not see it that way, as there appeared to be few opportunities for career enhancing cost cutting. In fact, by ‘lean managing’ the lower levels, everything became so complicated higher up that KISS went out the window. Obscuration seemed to become the name of the game.
Kiss? - I don’t think it was given a chance….Sad
The ‘Deliverables to be delivered’ yukspeak above is pretty typical bulls1t! Sir Humphrey would be proud.
Just my personal opinion, mind. 😉