New Defence Review, higher or lower?
Defence Budget £48 Bn. Amount spent on procurement £12 Bn.
So it would appear that only about a quarter of the Defence Budget is spent on procurement - and not all of that is American kit.
So, if we go for a period of expansion. Recruiting and training more soldiers, sailors and airman, and then paying them, the cost of that is going to be funded in pounds! Maintenance of current facilities in the UK,and possible expansion, pounds again. Warships built in UK shipyards, pounds. Training more pilots - pounds.
Yes, much of the high tech kit we buy these days is American, so the exchange rate WILL matter. But it won't impact all of the Defence Budget, and orders might be stretched over a longer period to compensate for the higher unit costs.
Best I duck back out of this now.....
Let's try and add some perspective to this. I've got these figures through a very quick search on my phone, so they might not be totally accurate, or both from the same financial year, but the principle is sound - and no doubt someone will correct me (hopefully politely) on the numbers.
Defence Budget £48 Bn. Amount spent on procurement £12 Bn.
So it would appear that only about a quarter of the Defence Budget is spent on procurement - and not all of that is American kit.
So, if we go for a period of expansion. Recruiting and training more soldiers, sailors and airman, and then paying them, the cost of that is going to be funded in pounds! Maintenance of current facilities in the UK,and possible expansion, pounds again. Warships built in UK shipyards, pounds. Training more pilots - pounds.
Yes, much of the high tech kit we buy these days is American, so the exchange rate WILL matter. But it won't impact all of the Defence Budget, and orders might be stretched over a longer period to compensate for the higher unit costs.
Best I duck back out of this now.....
Defence Budget £48 Bn. Amount spent on procurement £12 Bn.
So it would appear that only about a quarter of the Defence Budget is spent on procurement - and not all of that is American kit.
So, if we go for a period of expansion. Recruiting and training more soldiers, sailors and airman, and then paying them, the cost of that is going to be funded in pounds! Maintenance of current facilities in the UK,and possible expansion, pounds again. Warships built in UK shipyards, pounds. Training more pilots - pounds.
Yes, much of the high tech kit we buy these days is American, so the exchange rate WILL matter. But it won't impact all of the Defence Budget, and orders might be stretched over a longer period to compensate for the higher unit costs.
Best I duck back out of this now.....
https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP...tory-2011.html
The point being that as anybidy doing defenc economics will know, the UK is in a hole and it is a long run trend that is not getting better.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/ba...gbp/GBP-to-USD
The self inflicted wound of Brexit has made things even worse in the last several years, i.e. on top of all the other woes that come from running a persistent current account deficit and relying on the charity of others. This has very obvious real-world consequences to defence, especially when lusting after the shiny shiny such as P8, E7, and much of the embedded systems in pretty much everything.. It also has consequences for operational costs (oil, fuel, lubes are all priced in USD - remember the days of slow steaming ?), food and munitions (all predominantly composed of USD costs). Then given that a large chunk of the defence budget is personnel costs (present & past) and the ever-lower GBP results in imported inflation, these too become more costly.
Dreaming of expansion is all very good. Paying for it on this trajectory is something else entirely.
"Warships built in UK shipyards,"
Which yards? there are only a couple left - and the most important one at Barrow is full for the foreseeable future
Which yards? there are only a couple left - and the most important one at Barrow is full for the foreseeable future
I have some sympathy for the idea that we could build a lot more Patrol type vessels - which is what we need (amongst other types) but then you have to have the on-going cash to maintain - something that seems to pass the politicians by
N
What - precisely - do we need them to patrol and against what threat?
Dear all,
You have all likely read in your Daily Paper today that the PM is going to order a Defence Review particularly driven by the current climate between the West and Russia/China. What do you reckon will be the likely outcome? A move toward expansion, by any small degree, and modernization? Or are you so used to the usual damp squib results of all the reviews since the early 90s you can't bring yourself to expect any different? Answers on a post on this thread!
FB
You have all likely read in your Daily Paper today that the PM is going to order a Defence Review particularly driven by the current climate between the West and Russia/China. What do you reckon will be the likely outcome? A move toward expansion, by any small degree, and modernization? Or are you so used to the usual damp squib results of all the reviews since the early 90s you can't bring yourself to expect any different? Answers on a post on this thread!
FB
With the gigantic mess that Truss and her Chancellor are making of the UK economy, you will be lucky if the size of the reduction in defence
spending that this incompetent shower will announce along with all other public sector and Whitehall cuts on Nov 23rd is less than 5%.
Remember, all that Truss has promised on Defence spending is that by 2030 it will be 3% of GDP.
Truss will be gone WAY before 2030!
Letters of no confidence are already being submitted to the 1922 Committee.
And, if by some miracle she does survive till May 2024, the electorate will show her the door.
I’m confused.
We are constantly being told that we need more diversity in the higher echelons of power. Well we have managed that in fine style by pushing all those dastardly white males out of the corridors of power. Yet now we seem to be suggesting that this ethnically and gender diverse cabinet has made a bit of a cock up with the nations finances. I was led to believe that greater diversity brings with it greater achievements. Am I allowed to criticise them or am I then a racist/misogynist/bigot?
BV
BV
"What - precisely - do we need them to patrol and against what threat?"
Well there's Illegal immigration, fishing, disaster relief and drugs enforcement and it might be nice to have a force big enough that we don't have to use RFA's and tankers to handle such issues .
Well there's Illegal immigration, fishing, disaster relief and drugs enforcement and it might be nice to have a force big enough that we don't have to use RFA's and tankers to handle such issues .
We are constantly being told that we need more diversity in the higher echelons of power. Well we have managed that in fine style by pushing all those dastardly white males out of the corridors of power. Yet now we seem to be suggesting that this ethnically and gender diverse cabinet has made a bit of a cock up with the nations finances. I was led to believe that greater diversity brings with it greater achievements. Am I allowed to criticise them or am I then a racist/misogynist/bigot?
BV
BV
the irony of this increased drive for diversity by CAS is the complete lack of diversity for anyone that has undertaken his specific role. Do as I say…
Whoever is in charge its clear that the next "budget" will have to see some serious U turns or some serious cuts
can't see any space for increases in defence spending right now - just hope we get away without more "deferrals" and cuts
can't see any space for increases in defence spending right now - just hope we get away without more "deferrals" and cuts
Whoever is in charge its clear that the next "budget" will have to see some serious U turns or some serious cuts.
"What - precisely - do we need them to patrol and against what threat?"
Well there's Illegal immigration, fishing, disaster relief and drugs enforcement and it might be nice to have a force big enough that we don't have to use RFA's and tankers to handle such issues .
Well there's Illegal immigration, fishing, disaster relief and drugs enforcement and it might be nice to have a force big enough that we don't have to use RFA's and tankers to handle such issues .
Disaster relief doesn't usually occur in the UK (unless you count Yorkshire). We have a patrol ship based in the Caribbean for distex and DEO. Trouble with patrol vessels is that they tend to be small and most importantly have a limited complement, which funnily enough limits what they can actually provide. Which is why in hurricane season (like what it is now) we tend to have a larger ship (often known as an RFA tanker) on station to help out. You seem to be suggesting that we should have a dedicated disaster relief ship purely for that. Or are you suggesting that we have load of patrol vessels to do "stuff"?
The question is will any funds be available for more Typhoons, more Poseidons , more of the PBI, more ammunition?
I doubt it
But lets just hope we don't see the usual "cuts must be spread across different departments" mantra.
I doubt it
But lets just hope we don't see the usual "cuts must be spread across different departments" mantra.
If its the sort of conventional threat that we've considered for some decades, you still don't use a patrol boat.
If it's the sort of threat that appears to have been used in the Baltic - and indeed is often referenced wrt subsea cables, you don't stop that with a patrol boat either.
If it's the sort of threat that appears to have been used in the Baltic - and indeed is often referenced wrt subsea cables, you don't stop that with a patrol boat either.
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With the Pound tanking, I suggest even the new uniforms are on the back burner, let alone anything associated with war-fighting that isn't already contracted.
