Boris and bilateral security assurances: Sweden and Finland

[911slf]

Luckyrat.


Go to Hull for your holidays. Russians don't know how to pronounce "H" and they call it Goole - really! If they ever target it, they will miss.

Don't go to Goole!!!

If you want to know what Hull is like - read Phillip Larkin.

[luckyrat]

Originally Posted by 911slf

Luckyrat.


Go to Hull for your holidays. Russians don't know how to pronounce "H" and they call it Goole - really! If they ever target it, they will miss.

Don't go to Goole!!!

If you want to know what Hull is like - read Phillip Larkin.

ironically I was born in Hull

[Beamr]

The size of the balls of Finnish president is staggering: he called V. Putin this morning and told him "we're gonna join NATO and there's nothing you can do about it."

Man I would've loved to see Putlers face during that discussion.

https://www.presidentti.fi/en/press-...ident-putin-6/

[Beamr]

Erdogans negative statements turned out to be political arm twisting just as anticipated. They are basically referring to Kurds in Sweden.

Reuters: Turkey 'not closing door' to Sweden, Finland NATO entry, Erdogan advisor says

ISTANBUL, May 14 (Reuters) - Turkey has not shut the door to Sweden and Finland joining NATO but wants negotiations with the Nordic countries and a clampdown on what it sees as terrorist activities especially in Stockholm, President Tayyip Erdogan's spokesman said on Saturday.

"We are not closing the door. But we are basically raising this issue as a matter of national security for Turkey," Ibrahim Kalin, who is also the president's top foreign policy advisor, told Reuters in an interview in Istanbul.

https://www.reuters.com/world/exclus...ys-2022-05-14/

[fdr]

Electricity

So 1:00 AM Saturday Russia cuts power supplies to Finland in retaliation to the announced request to join NATO.
Finland's power included 14% of the total supply from Russia. The electric generation is diversified, and can also tap power from Sweden. Putin will have caused Finland to bring forward the termination of imports from Russia of electricity, coal, oil, and gas. Effectively Russia has again sanctioned itself and confirmed they are an unreliable trading partner. At this rate they will be hardpressed to export anything other than vodka, Matryoshka dolls and snow globes of St Basil's.

[Barksdale Boy]

Originally Posted by 911slf

Luckyrat.


Go to Hull for your holidays. Russians don't know how to pronounce "H" and they call it Goole - really! If they ever target it, they will miss.

Don't go to Goole!!!

If you want to know what Hull is like - read Phillip Larkin.

Using Goole Swing Bridge as an OAP? Where is Flixton Works when you need it?

[Beamr]

Russian website made an analysis of Finnish army due to NATO joining ambitions. Very superficial but nevertheless interesting read as nothing gets published in Russian that is against Kremlin line.

Article is in Russian but modern day online translators seem to be efficient.

Originally Posted by ferra.ru

Finland is the new front. What is the Finnish army? Guerrilla in high-tech mode

https://www.ferra.ru/review/techlife/finnish-army.htm

[Yellow Sun]

Originally Posted by Barksdale Boy

Using Goole Swing Bridge as an OAP? Where is Flixton Works when you need it?

For the enlightenment of younger readers, the above statement is not about the State Pension but the fact that Goole Swing Bridge is a large metal structure that stands out well on radar.

😉 YS

[ORAC]

Link to the Google Translate version of the paper posted by Beamr above.

https://www-ferra-ru.translate.goog/..._x_tr_pto=wapp

As usual its as interesting for what it lets slip about the Russian forces themselves. e.g.

".....There are 100 such machines in the entire army + the same number in storage...... Their condition and how long they can be brought into combat condition are unknown. But you need to understand that the Finns are unlikely to have them half-rotten and without engines.".....

[Barksdale Boy]

Originally Posted by Yellow Sun

For the enlightenment of younger readers, the above statement is not about the State Pension but the fact that Goole Swing Bridge is a large metal structure that stands out well on radar.

😉 YS

Thanks for that YS and of course it should be Flixborough. I really do need the first of the day.

[Flyhighfirst]

Originally Posted by DuncanDoenitz

So NATO probably wouldn't intervene.

But the USA might. Norway might. Denmark might. Latvia might. France might. Poland might ...........

Exactly. NATO as an organisation is a defence pact only, but each individual member can still do whatever they think is in their national interests.

[Flyhighfirst]

Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins

True but Britain would have been attacked by Russia inasmuch as its citizens were. A fine line surely

No fine line at all. NATO was defined by territory. NATO doesn’t care if your citizens are attacked. It cares if your territory is attacked.

I think NATO has become a red herring. In your scenario other countries, such as the US, France, Germany… may come to their aid but not under the auspices of NATO.

I think other countries would rally together, before any invocation of article 5 could take place.

[Beamr]

There is a press conference currently going on by Finnish president and government and it is now official: Finland will request to join NATO. Request will be delivered to NATO next tuesday - thursday time frame.

[Finningley Boy]

According to a Turkish Admiral on LBC today, they object to Finland and Sweden joining NATO because they harbour terrorists in their midst?

FB

[henra]

Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst

I think NATO has become a red herring. In your scenario other countries, such as the US, France, Germany… may come to their aid but not under the auspices of NATO.

And they would. For sure. At least with Air strikes on invading troops. And the attackers being largely restricted to Roads and Railroads these Air Strikes would be absolutely fatal for the invader. That would be a massacre on the BMPs, BTRs, MBTs and Trucks. Not even Mad Vlad' can be THAT stupid.

I think other countries would rally together, before any invocation of article 5 could take place.

Yup.

[henra]

Originally Posted by Finningley Boy

According to a Turkish Admiral on LBC today, they object to Finland and Sweden joining NATO because they harbour terrorists in their midst?

They are unhappy that PKK is finding a bit of a safe harbour in Scandinavian Countries. Expect a little bit of bargaining around this. But I would be suprised if they wouldn't finally give in. There will be MASSIVE pressure not the least by the US to get Finland (and Sweden) in quickly. Would make it also much easier to defend the Baltic states if Finland would be NATO territory. Strategically a big plus.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by henra

Would make it also much easier to defend the Baltic states if Finland would be NATO territory. Strategically a big plus.

The Finnish AF could help defend the baltic airspace from home bases if necessary. It's a big change in NATO defence planning compared to the current situation.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by henra

They are unhappy that PKK is finding a bit of a safe harbour in Scandinavian Countries. Expect a little bit of bargaining around this. But I would be suprised if they wouldn't finally give in. There will be MASSIVE pressure not the least by the US to get Finland (and Sweden) in quickly. Would make it also much easier to defend the Baltic states if Finland would be NATO territory. Strategically a big plus.

Turkey needs NATO as much as NATO needs Turkey. The PKK will end up with some issues to deal with almost certainly, and there really needs to be a negotiated peace between Turkey and PKK. How that happens is above my paygrade, but they got close in 2013 to 2015 until the incident in Ceylanpinar which the PKK denied being involved in.

[Beamr]

To add some (naval)aviation content, the USS Kearsarge is steaming close to the Swedish coast on the Baltic Sea.
There are some joint amphibious exercises going on there as the Swedish naval HQ is in Karlskrona. USS Kearsarge is accompanied by USS Gravely and USS Gunston Hall.

Thats a big ship for the Baltic Sea with quite some equipment. Makes a statement.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Beamr

Makes a statement.

“A man-of-war is the best ambassador.” ~ Oliver Cromwell ~