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Moskva down

Old 18th Apr 2022, 21:25
  #281 (permalink)  
 
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My understanding from what I read, and what I observed on various marine vessel tracking sites - is she likely went down right around where these "tugs and special craft" are still located in the Black Sea. There were nearly a dozen there late last week - but several have remained in that area since then. Recall that in the immediate aftermath of the initial strike - the Russians moved their Black Sea fleet south out of the range of the Neptune - which is approximately 180 miles. That would be consistent with the location of all the naval fuss in the location of these tugs.



Last edited by WillFlyForCheese; 18th Apr 2022 at 21:52.
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 22:56
  #282 (permalink)  
 
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Post #281 Interesting. That hardly seems credible. The last position I saw for Moskva pre sinking (and more or less corroborated by my single AIS view of tugs and special vessels) was all of a third of that distance from Odessa. An air superiority asset would surely be of no use that far from theatre?
The location of that AIS plot I saw (once but couldn't repeat) was roughly where the magenta dot is just S of odessa. It now seems to be labelled "high speed craft".

There's no way on earth jackups are positioned where the above post suggests, water is FAR too deep.m.

Addendum.
As per the post below that is as far as I can tell exactly where I saw the last pre-sinking posn. of the Moskva and corroborated by the AIS plot of tugs and special vessels. In around 100m of water only.

Last edited by meleagertoo; 18th Apr 2022 at 23:14.
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Old 18th Apr 2022, 23:05
  #283 (permalink)  
 
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It pinpointed the coordinates of a ship matching the Russian vessel and its dire situation to 45°10’43.39″N, 30°55’30.54″E - a position east of Snake Island in the Black Sea, 80 nautical miles from Odesa and 50 nautical miles away from the closest stretch of Ukrainian coastline.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ite-image.html
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 00:11
  #284 (permalink)  
 
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The fog of war has, helpfully for Putin, delayed KIA notifications reaching the families.

But with Moskva, the families of those serving on it know that it has gone down and are actively seeking to find out if they are alive or dead.

Will the 500 families and others show up at the Victory Day parade with placards asking "Where's our son?"
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 00:34
  #285 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo View Post
Post #281 Interesting. That hardly seems credible. The last position I saw for Moskva pre sinking (and more or less corroborated by my single AIS view of tugs and special vessels) was all of a third of that distance from Odessa. An air superiority asset would surely be of no use that far from theatre?
The location of that AIS plot I saw (once but couldn't repeat) was roughly where the magenta dot is just S of odessa. It now seems to be labelled "high speed craft".

There's no way on earth jackups are positioned where the above post suggests, water is FAR too deep.m.

Addendum.
As per the post below that is as far as I can tell exactly where I saw the last pre-sinking posn. of the Moskva and corroborated by the AIS plot of tugs and special vessels. In around 100m of water only.
it certainly could be too far south - just don’t know. There was a Turkish flagged ship nearby that heard the SOS and picked up some of the crew. At that time - the Turkish flagged Fatih was right near that location. Once the sun came up - FORTE10 was in the air and spent considerable time over that precise location. Quite a few of the OSINT guys on twitter picked it apart pretty good.

i guess we’ll find out eventually.
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 01:46
  #286 (permalink)  
 
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I constructed the following event timeline based on my understanding of the reliable info so far.

13Apr22 daytime hours: Two R-360 Neptune anti-ship cruise missiles hit Moskva

13Apr daytime hours: Other Russian ships approach the burning Moskva, take leaked photos, attempt towing and fire suppression operations, split and buckling in hull of Moskva is photographed indicating structural failure

13Apr 2000 hours: Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych and Odesa governor Maksym Marchenko tweeted that their forces hit Moskva with the Neptune missiles.

14Apr 0105 hours, Moskva sent out an SOS

14Apr 0114 hours, (Turk ship observes) Moskva lay on its side

14Apr 0144 hours, all the electricity went out

14Apr 0200 hours, Turk ship evacuated 54 sailors from Moskva

14Apr 0300 hours, Moskva reported completely sunk
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 06:13
  #287 (permalink)  
 
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What is interesting is that the crew needed to be rescued by a nearby Turkish ship. who responded to a very late SOS.

Where were all the other naval vessels accompanying the ship?, did they all back off out of range and leave their mates to whomever would pick them up?. One would not normally allow survivors to be taken off by a commercial vessel unless they were the only ones around..

It has been done before by many Navies, so I expect the Moskva was on it's own and may have later been towed South to deeper ocean for reasons that were not related to rescue.(At least two nukes up the spout.)

IG
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 06:56
  #288 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
When one wishes to learn one is ignorant, not stupid.
A ship at sea can stay on station for days/weeks/months. An aircraft can stay on station for hours (and in rare cases, days).
Also, most naval war ships are Multi Purpose Combatants. They are not just "a floating missile battery" meaning that they have guns, radios, radars, sonars, and Intelligence collection systems.
They also (nowadays) act as floating airfields for UAVs, for Helicopters, and/or (as you get much bigger ships) fixed wing aircraft. (By they VSTOL or CATABAR). They can also carry people to put ashore if the circumstances require that.
To a certain extent, you are looking at an apple and trying to see how it compares to a lug nut.

Thanks ( to nutloose as well, had no idea Russia only has ONE carrier. )
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 07:16
  #289 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sam Ting Wong View Post
Thanks ( to nutloose as well, had no idea Russia only has ONE carrier. )
It is not one, it is rather none. In her life Kuznetsov have seen only a few short deployments, including one combat deployment to Syria, where majority of the fast jet operations were made from the land base, not from the deck. Any fixed wing aircraft take off or landing on her used to make the news in Russian media for two decades.
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 08:04
  #290 (permalink)  
 
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"Where were all the other naval vessels accompanying the ship?, did they all back off out of range and leave their mates to whomever would pick them up"

We covered this above - you don't hang around when you're clearly in range of the enemy - as per HMS Aboukir etc in WW1 - 2 more ships lost trying to save the crew of the first to be hit

You divert something much smaller - that tug for example - or , better still, a neutral who happens to be close.

Big hand to the Turkish skipper - always a risk you might be mis-identified
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 08:35
  #291 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
"Where were all the other naval vessels accompanying the ship?, did they all back off out of range and leave their mates to whomever would pick them up"

We covered this above - you don't hang around when you're clearly in range of the enemy - as per HMS Aboukir etc in WW1 - 2 more ships lost trying to save the crew of the first to be hit

You divert something much smaller - that tug for example - or , better still, a neutral who happens to be close.

Big hand to the Turkish skipper - always a risk you might be mis-identified

Thanks, I had assumed, probably incorrectly that the Turkish ship was one of the first to pick up survivors.

IG
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 09:04
  #292 (permalink)  
 
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I think the Moskwa may be where the kremlin's lies begin to be exposed to harsh light and criticism - that's even without "nit-picking " about the claimed storm against the mill-pond conditions shown on the photos. This ship will have a much higher percentage of specialist, long-contract personnel that any infantry unit/regiment and these long-serving sailors will probably have made their homes, with their families in their home ports e.g. Sevastopol. There will therefore be a large nucleus of families who will know each other/will form support groups very quickly to push for answers about their loved ones. I suppose that there is also a good chance that they will get unofficial support/information from sailors in the local bureaucracy.

If it turns out to be the case that hundreds of sailors have been killed, then I think this is likely to unravel quickly for Putin, with bad - but unquantifiable - results.
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 09:09
  #293 (permalink)  
 
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With all respect but what is 500 more versus 10K plus already KIA?
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 09:22
  #294 (permalink)  
 
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I can't help feeling that as soon as someone starts to ask questions of the whereabouts of their son/husband/whatever, they probably get a visit from the FSB strongly recommending that they desist.
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 09:33
  #295 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
With all respect but what is 500 more versus 10K plus already KIA?
The probability that those who served on Russia's Flagship are most likely to be the sons of senior officials and Military Personnel, where they thought they would be relatively safe. The notion that they included conscripts is a nonsense.
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 09:37
  #296 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Xeptu View Post
The probability that those who served on Russia's Flagship are most likely to be the sons of senior officials and Military Personnel, where they thought they would be relatively safe. The notion that they included conscripts is a nonsense.
Any reason to be so absolute, other than your own beliefs ? There are named people in reports who say their sons were conscripts.
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 09:42
  #297 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan View Post
Any reason to be so absolute, other than your own beliefs ? There are named people in reports who say their sons were conscripts.
They don't know where they are, whether or not they are alive and regardless of what they were told or led to believe, a conscript would be very lucky indeed to serve aboard the Flagship.
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 09:45
  #298 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan View Post
Any reason to be so absolute, other than your own beliefs ? There are named people in reports who say their sons were conscripts.

Indeed - it is suspected that many/most of the most junior ranks were conscripts. Another instance of 'By law they shouldn't have been there, but they were'.
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 09:49
  #299 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by WillFlyForCheese View Post
My understanding from what I read, and what I observed on various marine vessel tracking sites - is she likely went down right around where these "tugs and special craft" are still located in the Black Sea. There were nearly a dozen there late last week - but several have remained in that area since then. Recall that in the immediate aftermath of the initial strike - the Russians moved their Black Sea fleet south out of the range of the Neptune - which is approximately 180 miles. That would be consistent with the location of all the naval fuss in the location of these tugs.
As others have noted, this seems to be too far south. My understanding that the vessel was less than 100km from the Ukrainian mainland.
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Old 19th Apr 2022, 09:51
  #300 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
With all respect but what is 500 more versus 10K plus already KIA?
The sinking of Moskva has been very widely reported in Russian media, and the casualties are much harder to hide for longer period of time. If a conscript (or any other soldier) dies in a tank on a land operation it is not necessarily noticed that quick amongst the population. But such a large scale instant hit like the Moskva with lot of media coverage will raise questions. 10000 KIA within two months of troops that no one actually expects to take contact back home very soon vs possibly 500 KIA in one instance and all the families are trying to get hold of their owns.

To put it this way: in land warfare what type of weapon should be used and in which circumstances to take out 500+ enemy soldiers with a single hit? Such an event would similarily raise questions.
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