Afghanistan 2021 Onwards
"The interviews of Wallace and Mercer on Sky this morning didn’t pull any punches - and Tom Tugendhat, Chair if the HoC Foreign Affairs Committee, wrote a long Twitter thread on the consequences last night."
I'm sure the Afghan Govt would be happy if the UK steps up to replace the US - otherwise it's just grandstanding
I'm sure the Afghan Govt would be happy if the UK steps up to replace the US - otherwise it's just grandstanding
Join Date: Jan 2021
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Not a defeat at all, even if the invading Taliban would like to portray it that way. A merciless Sunni Pashtun band of leaders in exile negotiate some guarantees and then force their rule over all other ethnic tribes and religions in the land. A sad day for their people and for most of the world to observe.
But whatever, it was a horrendous waste of British lives.
it's just grandstanding
and impossible.
Walk away, don't look back.
and impossible.
Walk away, don't look back.
I came across a memorial to British soldiers lost during the conflict in Afghanistan in Reading.
Names like Kandahar caught my attention. Funny I thought "They were quick to place this memorial?".
Then I noticed the dates. 1800's. I guess we never really left in the first place.
The withdrawal worries me. Shades of airlifting people of the Embassy during the last days of Vietnam.
What worries me more is when we inevitably return and loose more lives re-taking the territory we just surrendered.
You can't win in Afghanistan because there is nothing to win. Just miles of rocky, featureless terrain held by thousands of deidcated, featureless enemy.
I look forward to the innevitable influx of refugees from Afghanistan that we created.
We never seem to learn do we?
Names like Kandahar caught my attention. Funny I thought "They were quick to place this memorial?".
Then I noticed the dates. 1800's. I guess we never really left in the first place.
The withdrawal worries me. Shades of airlifting people of the Embassy during the last days of Vietnam.
What worries me more is when we inevitably return and loose more lives re-taking the territory we just surrendered.
You can't win in Afghanistan because there is nothing to win. Just miles of rocky, featureless terrain held by thousands of deidcated, featureless enemy.
I look forward to the innevitable influx of refugees from Afghanistan that we created.
We never seem to learn do we?
When conversation began to flow through a 'terp, they revealed they were nervous because they saw the union flags and assumed the British were back to avenge their losses at the Battle of Maiwand, 1880!
As the Taliban said - they have all the time...
Whilst ORAC did start this thread to look at post 2021, it is worth looking back as well. The UK govt were never fully committed to this campaign and were unwilling to spend the money to make it a real success. Contrast this with the money wasted on track and trace, which would have gone a long way. This is not a critique of any colour of politician's cloth as they are all guilty and Tony Bliar's escapade in Iraq, hanging on the coat-tails of Dubya, took away much needed focus and resource from where it was needed more.
Already mentioned on here are the previous 'wars' the UK has been involved in and I also commend the book by William Dalrymple even if it is a hard read at times. That book also exposes that those early escapades could have been successful were it not for some big tactical errors by some of the commanders at the time, including camping outside Kabul in a very poor defensive situation. Even then, engagement with local rulers, or warlords was the game, one that largely worked in India but was poorly exercised in Afghanistan.
If we go back even earlier we can learn from the Romans as well. How did a small group of people manage to hold sway for a hundred years over such a large area. Again it was through not only military force and expertise but also engagement with local chiefs. When the Romans withdrew from places such as Britannia, the dark ages began and we can arguably see that happening again across parts of the world including Afghanistan. I am a fan of democracy but there is a lot to be said for some form of dictatorship, noting the harm that this exercises on those who disagree with the leadership.
There is clearly no appetite in the Western world to put more boots on the ground in this country and so, containment must be the aim. There is a clear argument that pressure need to be put on countries such as Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, who fund the Madrassas, which espouse an extreme view of what is a peaceful religion. I note that Pakistan has also lost huge numbers of troops in areas such as the Kashmir and border areas. It is the criminal element that needs to be contained, to cut off the heads of the snakes to prevent heroin being shipped to Europe. We need to support and nurture those more enlightened who have fled their country, so that in time, they may be in a position to exert pressure on group such as the Taliban and unite the tribes. Where will the next Lion of the Panshir come from? We need to take a leaf out of the Chinese book and look at the long game, although I despair that Western Politics, are too short term for any such philanthropic viewpoint.
Tony Bliar Brighton, 2001
Already mentioned on here are the previous 'wars' the UK has been involved in and I also commend the book by William Dalrymple even if it is a hard read at times. That book also exposes that those early escapades could have been successful were it not for some big tactical errors by some of the commanders at the time, including camping outside Kabul in a very poor defensive situation. Even then, engagement with local rulers, or warlords was the game, one that largely worked in India but was poorly exercised in Afghanistan.
If we go back even earlier we can learn from the Romans as well. How did a small group of people manage to hold sway for a hundred years over such a large area. Again it was through not only military force and expertise but also engagement with local chiefs. When the Romans withdrew from places such as Britannia, the dark ages began and we can arguably see that happening again across parts of the world including Afghanistan. I am a fan of democracy but there is a lot to be said for some form of dictatorship, noting the harm that this exercises on those who disagree with the leadership.
There is clearly no appetite in the Western world to put more boots on the ground in this country and so, containment must be the aim. There is a clear argument that pressure need to be put on countries such as Pakistan, Iran and Saudi Arabia, who fund the Madrassas, which espouse an extreme view of what is a peaceful religion. I note that Pakistan has also lost huge numbers of troops in areas such as the Kashmir and border areas. It is the criminal element that needs to be contained, to cut off the heads of the snakes to prevent heroin being shipped to Europe. We need to support and nurture those more enlightened who have fled their country, so that in time, they may be in a position to exert pressure on group such as the Taliban and unite the tribes. Where will the next Lion of the Panshir come from? We need to take a leaf out of the Chinese book and look at the long game, although I despair that Western Politics, are too short term for any such philanthropic viewpoint.
We know this also. The values we believe in should shine through what we do in Afghanistan.
To the Afghan people we make this commitment. The conflict will not be the end. We will not walk away, as the outside world has done so many times before.
To the Afghan people we make this commitment. The conflict will not be the end. We will not walk away, as the outside world has done so many times before.
In the inevitable fallout and navel gazing which follows this atrocious withdrawal and capitulation, maybe 'The West' should focus on who supported AQ and the Taliban!
Saudi and Pakistan...
Saudi and Pakistan...
As ye sow......
The Taliban are a faction that grew out of the Islamic mujahideen. The term was not heard until the early 90s
The word mujahideen, in turn, is the term used for the collective groups that fought the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. They date from around 1978/9.
https://www.thoughtco.com/the-mujahi...anistan-195373
The term mujahideen means "defenders of the faith", in ths case, Islam. Alexander the Great lived 365BC to 323BC. According to tradition, the prophet Muhammad began to receive the divine revelations in 610AD so Islam could not have existed before that date, so there woiud be no faith to defend.
Whatever corporate memory there is in Afghanistan, it has precious little to do with either the Taliban or the mujahideen. It predates both of them. The memory, such as it is, is born by the all people generally, both the Taliban amd the non Taliban alike.
The choice facing Trump and then Biden was not a simple stay or go. There was no status quo stay option; the only alternative to 'go' was 'escalate' as the Taliban resurgence would have eventually forced the West to resume a full combat role. It is frankly embarrassing to hear Ben Wallace trying to drop 100% of the blame on the US by claiming that he tried to rally the international community to support a continuing presence and pointing the finger at Trump, which he thinks allows him a free hit.
I heard Tugendhat on the radio. He offers no credible end state and in the light of the above his argument boils down to a straightforward sunk cost fallacy. Sorry to be blunt but having served on HERRICK I feel entitled to be.
Now, expect political and academic recriminations as the 'interventionist' foreign policy lobby tries to blame and heap moral shame on the 'realist' lobby for pushing (and winning the argument for) withdrawal. To me that's like an arsonist blaming and shaming the fire brigade for causing water damage.
Last edited by Easy Street; 13th Aug 2021 at 15:25.
"They are obviously sponsored and advised by somebody. Your local gang of mudfighters would not move coordinated like they do. "
the same folk thrashed the British several times and the Russians in the days before "hearts & minds" - they seem quite well able to take care of themselves
Much the same in the Yemen - just stay away
the same folk thrashed the British several times and the Russians in the days before "hearts & minds" - they seem quite well able to take care of themselves
Much the same in the Yemen - just stay away
Eminent strategist and Iraq Inquiry panellist Lawrence Freedman just retweeted this cogent thread, which captures the essence of the matter. Fingers crossed our leaders can ride out the storm of naive outrage without getting drawn back into the morass.
No.
The Taliban are a faction that grew out of the Islamic mujahideen. The term was not heard until the early 90s
The word mujahideen, in turn, is the term used for the collective groups that fought the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. They date from around 1978/9.
https://www.thoughtco.com/the-mujahi...anistan-195373
The term mujahideen means "defenders of the faith", in ths case, Islam. Alexander the Great lived 365BC to 323BC. According to tradition, the prophet Muhammad began to receive the divine revelations in 610AD so Islam could not have existed before that date, so there woiud be no faith to defend.
Whatever corporate memory there is in Afghanistan, it has precious little to do with either the Taliban or the mujahideen. It predates both of them. The memory, such as it is, is born by the all people generally, both the Taliban amd the non Taliban alike.
The Taliban are a faction that grew out of the Islamic mujahideen. The term was not heard until the early 90s
The word mujahideen, in turn, is the term used for the collective groups that fought the Russian occupation of Afghanistan. They date from around 1978/9.
https://www.thoughtco.com/the-mujahi...anistan-195373
The term mujahideen means "defenders of the faith", in ths case, Islam. Alexander the Great lived 365BC to 323BC. According to tradition, the prophet Muhammad began to receive the divine revelations in 610AD so Islam could not have existed before that date, so there woiud be no faith to defend.
Whatever corporate memory there is in Afghanistan, it has precious little to do with either the Taliban or the mujahideen. It predates both of them. The memory, such as it is, is born by the all people generally, both the Taliban amd the non Taliban alike.
The 'term' Taliban' (literally "student") may be a newish incarnation to our ears, but they are the same people (if maybe 30 years older) as the Muj, with the same strategy, tactics and support from the Pakistani ISI. They are the same Pashtun tribesmen who formed the Muj.
If it helps your understanding, think of them as Trigger's broom: the same body politic, with the same hatred of foreigners and mistrust of Kabul handed down through the DNA, with regular rotation of body parts.
If you look at the old maps of the Afghani Empire in the 12th century . The maps are almost identical to where their present supporters reside .
What is old is new again . As for the eighteenth century point of view about Afghanistan being the grave of Empires , it might seem one of those graves was the old Afghani Empire .
I am starting to think that Kabul is a clever ambush being set up by those military geniuses who wear a lot of brass and sit on PhDs in modern warfare . As they say in Fort Benning if your attack is going well , it is probably an ambush
Kabul will not be as important as the fight for the water of the Indus River.
What is old is new again . As for the eighteenth century point of view about Afghanistan being the grave of Empires , it might seem one of those graves was the old Afghani Empire .
I am starting to think that Kabul is a clever ambush being set up by those military geniuses who wear a lot of brass and sit on PhDs in modern warfare . As they say in Fort Benning if your attack is going well , it is probably an ambush
Kabul will not be as important as the fight for the water of the Indus River.
No. You seem to continually misunderstand the situation.
The 'term' Taliban' (literally "student") may be a newish incarnation to our ears, but they are the same people (if maybe 30 years older) as the Muj, with the same strategy, tactics and support from the Pakistani ISI. They are the same Pashtun tribesmen who formed the Muj.
If it helps your understanding, think of them as Trigger's broom: the same body politic, with the same hatred of foreigners and mistrust of Kabul handed down through the DNA, with regular rotation of body parts.
The 'term' Taliban' (literally "student") may be a newish incarnation to our ears, but they are the same people (if maybe 30 years older) as the Muj, with the same strategy, tactics and support from the Pakistani ISI. They are the same Pashtun tribesmen who formed the Muj.
If it helps your understanding, think of them as Trigger's broom: the same body politic, with the same hatred of foreigners and mistrust of Kabul handed down through the DNA, with regular rotation of body parts.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Reading the press Biden is getting in the neck across the US media with comparisons to the fall of Saigon widespread.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/r...stan-gn22xc69v
RAF ready to airlift Britons from Afghanistan
RAF airplanes are on standby as Britain faces a “race against time” to evacuate thousands of British and Afghan citizens from Afghanistan before the Taliban take over the country.….
Commercial flights were yesterday packed with people attempting to leave the country as panic-stricken Afghans and foreigners crammed into Kabul’s international airport. There are concerns that the airport will become a prime target of the Taliban offensive.
Members of the 16 Air Assault Brigade will be sent to Afghanistan this weekend ready to assist with the evacuation. The Home Office is also deploying officials to help speed up visa requests for Afghan citizens.
While ministers say they are confident that they will be able to get Britons out of Afghanistan in time, one source said it would be “highly challenging”. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said: “Protecting British nationals and ensuring their safety as they leave Afghanistan is our top priority, which is why we are commencing Operation Pitting, for which our military are very well prepared….
Every flight scheduled in Kabul yesterday was leaving the Afghan capital. Around the perimeter of the airport, which is three miles from the centre of the city, layer after layer of heavy security checked vehicles and passengers’ tickets. Among the troops, the mood was tense…..
“Lots of security guards were there, and many checkpoints,” said Elham Ullah Khan, a Kabul resident who was putting his wife on a Turkish Airlines flight to the US yesterday. “Most of the passengers were not ordinary people, they were senior officials and foreigners with their own security,” he said. “Afghan officials were there with their families, trying to get out.”
Airlines and the Afghan government have urged people without tickets not to go to the airport, but that has not stopped many from turning up in search of a seat on any flight.….
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/r...stan-gn22xc69v
RAF ready to airlift Britons from Afghanistan
RAF airplanes are on standby as Britain faces a “race against time” to evacuate thousands of British and Afghan citizens from Afghanistan before the Taliban take over the country.….
Commercial flights were yesterday packed with people attempting to leave the country as panic-stricken Afghans and foreigners crammed into Kabul’s international airport. There are concerns that the airport will become a prime target of the Taliban offensive.
Members of the 16 Air Assault Brigade will be sent to Afghanistan this weekend ready to assist with the evacuation. The Home Office is also deploying officials to help speed up visa requests for Afghan citizens.
While ministers say they are confident that they will be able to get Britons out of Afghanistan in time, one source said it would be “highly challenging”. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said: “Protecting British nationals and ensuring their safety as they leave Afghanistan is our top priority, which is why we are commencing Operation Pitting, for which our military are very well prepared….
Every flight scheduled in Kabul yesterday was leaving the Afghan capital. Around the perimeter of the airport, which is three miles from the centre of the city, layer after layer of heavy security checked vehicles and passengers’ tickets. Among the troops, the mood was tense…..
“Lots of security guards were there, and many checkpoints,” said Elham Ullah Khan, a Kabul resident who was putting his wife on a Turkish Airlines flight to the US yesterday. “Most of the passengers were not ordinary people, they were senior officials and foreigners with their own security,” he said. “Afghan officials were there with their families, trying to get out.”
Airlines and the Afghan government have urged people without tickets not to go to the airport, but that has not stopped many from turning up in search of a seat on any flight.….