Afghanistan 2021 Onwards
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Afghanistan’s air force is a rare U.S.-backed success story. It may soon fail
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation...ir-force-story
https://www.warhistoryonline.com/war...zoom-call.html
It reminds me of Vietnam in 1975. A peace deal in name only that was agreed to by one side to buy time and the other just to get the hell out of there. The side that was always going to be staying just waiting to overwhelm government forces that don't have the strength to resist.
The worst thing that could happen to the Taliban is for them to win. Their last go at running the country was an unmitigated disaster. There is reason the 2001 air campaign defeated them in 20 days. They had squandered almost all of their popular support.
The Taliban is ultimately just another outsider supported invading force. They will get their arses kicked like everyone else who tried to upset the natural conglomeration of decentralized provincial ruler model, that has existed in Afghanistan for hundreds of years; in favour of a centralized autonomous governing power.
Plus the vast majority of the Taliban are good at killing people and blowing things up but have none of the actual skills required to run a country. The abject failure of ISIS to hold on to their conquered land is a useful recent example of the strengths and the weaknesses of these kinds of movements.
The Taliban is ultimately just another outsider supported invading force. They will get their arses kicked like everyone else who tried to upset the natural conglomeration of decentralized provincial ruler model, that has existed in Afghanistan for hundreds of years; in favour of a centralized autonomous governing power.
Plus the vast majority of the Taliban are good at killing people and blowing things up but have none of the actual skills required to run a country. The abject failure of ISIS to hold on to their conquered land is a useful recent example of the strengths and the weaknesses of these kinds of movements.
Yup - they lasted about 5 years - bit longer in some areas - basically they 're very much a Pashtun based group . As we've seen other Afghans have a limited tolerance for dominance by "outsiders" - however defined
"Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it," George Santayana. I strongy recommend the two books mentioned by skridlov and TakwillaFlyboy:-
The Great Game by Peter Hopkirk
The Return of the King by William Dalrymple
However hard we fought, I don't think the West ever had a chance to change Afghanistan. It will be very interesting to see if the Chinese with a different approach will succeed.
The Great Game by Peter Hopkirk
The Return of the King by William Dalrymple
However hard we fought, I don't think the West ever had a chance to change Afghanistan. It will be very interesting to see if the Chinese with a different approach will succeed.
The Frontier Scouts by Charles Chenevix Trench sadly did not get the attention it merited from our leaders.
Bottom line: The Pashtun tribes are ungovernable.
Bottom line: The Pashtun tribes are ungovernable.
" Never accede to militarily supporting political adventuring in Afghanistan,as the British Army learned to its cost in the last century,that it will never work"
I remember the metaphorical cheer that went up around the U.K. Defence Intelligence community in late '79 when the Soviets went in ,"Now they're for it!"
Little did we appreciate, or even conceive then, that it would be our politicians taking us in next..........
Last edited by Haraka; 11th Aug 2021 at 09:52.
Agreed. 'A Million Bullets' is also a good read.
Last edited by Vortex Hoop; 10th Aug 2021 at 21:04. Reason: Grammar
"Those who cannot remember the past are doomed to repeat it," George Santayana. I strongy recommend the two books mentioned by skridlov and TakwillaFlyboy:-
The Great Game by Peter Hopkirk
The Return of the King by William Dalrymple
However hard we fought, I don't think the West ever had a chance to change Afghanistan. It will be very interesting to see if the Chinese with a different approach will succeed.
The Great Game by Peter Hopkirk
The Return of the King by William Dalrymple
However hard we fought, I don't think the West ever had a chance to change Afghanistan. It will be very interesting to see if the Chinese with a different approach will succeed.
There's a great deal that could be said about Pakistan's involvement - but seldom is, at least as far as news coverage is concerned. The US government also continues its fan dance where Pakistan (ISI) culpability is concerned. Given that the Taliban's activity has now expanded into large scale conventional unit operations the sheer scale of munitions required to sustain it has grown massively. And yet I don't recall a single news item or documentary that attempts to account for the source, scale or routes of the related supply chain. Its source is Pakistan of course, notionally a US ally...
Up to the last week or so I assumed that the Tajiks would hold out, at least in the Panjshir, as they did last time the Taliban were in Kabul. But news reports suggest that some Tajik units are going over to the Taliban - and of course sealing the border into Tajikistan cuts off that source of support. There's a similar situation in western Afghanistan where the border crossing at Islam Quala was quickly taken and nearby Herat is probably soon to fall. At the moment Mazar is surrounded too. I wonder where General Abdul Rashid Dostum is these days? He was famous for running tanks over captured Talibs or cooking them in transport containers, so I doubt that they're going to welcome him if he decides to perform one of his about-face moves.
The parallels with the US withdrawal from Vietnam are remarkable. US troops withdraw leaving a "well equipped national army" to defend the state. Which army collapses in a matter of weeks.
AlJazeera is the only broadcast channel giving serious coverage to the situation with a few journalists still on the ground there.
Up to the last week or so I assumed that the Tajiks would hold out, at least in the Panjshir, as they did last time the Taliban were in Kabul. But news reports suggest that some Tajik units are going over to the Taliban - and of course sealing the border into Tajikistan cuts off that source of support. There's a similar situation in western Afghanistan where the border crossing at Islam Quala was quickly taken and nearby Herat is probably soon to fall. At the moment Mazar is surrounded too. I wonder where General Abdul Rashid Dostum is these days? He was famous for running tanks over captured Talibs or cooking them in transport containers, so I doubt that they're going to welcome him if he decides to perform one of his about-face moves.
The parallels with the US withdrawal from Vietnam are remarkable. US troops withdraw leaving a "well equipped national army" to defend the state. Which army collapses in a matter of weeks.
AlJazeera is the only broadcast channel giving serious coverage to the situation with a few journalists still on the ground there.
Unfortunately this ongoing dilemma with Pakistani factions can't be sidestepped this time by concocting a few imaginary "Stealth Blackhawks"
Last edited by Haraka; 11th Aug 2021 at 10:43.
Our former Foreign Secretary David Miliband was on Radio 4 this morning in his capacity as Head of the International Rescue refugees' charity (the name always makes me laugh). Anyway, he was on about the duty of Western countries to prevent Afghanistan's neighbouring states from becoming overwhelmed by refugees. He mentioned Pakistan as an example of a state needing help. Sadly, the interviewer didn't press the obvious point that maybe the Pakistani deep state should have thought about that while busily undermining everything the West was trying to achieve next door.
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One sometimes thinks we would have been better off just supplying all the villages and city folk with weapons and let them fight it out.. The Taliban who will be in the minority can only exert pressure over a town or village if they hold the upper hand, arming everyone in that village would soon put that right.. Mind you it wouldn't be nice to start with, but eventually some sort of peace would endure. 
One sometimes thinks we would have been better off just supplying all the villages and city folk with weapons and let them fight it out.
Tanks and artillery can upset that balance. We have seen that Stingers can counter air power.
Anti-tank missiles could level the playing field.
One sometimes thinks we would have been better off just supplying all the villages and city folk with weapons and let them fight it out.. The Taliban who will be in the minority can only exert pressure over a town or village if they hold the upper hand, arming everyone in that village would soon put that right.. Mind you it wouldn't be nice to start with, but eventually some sort of peace would endure.
In fact many of the Taliban positively WANT to be back in 7th Century Arabia..................
The US intelligence community is reportedly giving the the Ghani regime 90 days before Kabul is overrun.
A US supported government that is monstrously corrupt and riddled with incompetence and nepotism rapidly falls after the US leaves. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it, the only difference is it will be Blackhawks instead of Hueys evacuating the embassy......
A US supported government that is monstrously corrupt and riddled with incompetence and nepotism rapidly falls after the US leaves. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it, the only difference is it will be Blackhawks instead of Hueys evacuating the embassy......