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Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

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Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

Old 25th Aug 2021, 00:27
  #501 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fitliker View Post
The new agenda is being set by the former President Of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai . Firmly on that agenda Is Afghanistan Irredentism . They firmly reject the Durand line and the McMahon lines .

Tomorrow’s word will be : Irredentism
Yesterday I couldn’t spell irredentist,now I are one.
Cricket is considered the Great Game currently,but things change and also remain the same.
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 05:26
  #502 (permalink)  
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Now hours not days rather than days not weeks…

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/u...stan-l73nc038s


UK races to rescue thousands from Afghanistan

Britain is scrambling to airlift more than 4,000 UK nationals and Afghan citizens out of the country by the end of the week after the Taliban said locals would be barred from travelling to the airport.

President Biden confirmed last night that he was not planning to extend his August 31 deadline for the US withdrawal despite lobbying from Boris Johnson and other European leaders.

The decision means the last British evacuation flight is expected to leave tomorrow or Friday to ensure there is time for the 1,000 British soldiers in Kabul to get themselves out.

The government is attempting to evacuate 1,250 British citizens and other people from recognised “safe” countries, along with a further 2,500 Afghans who have supported British forces over the past 20 years, including interpreters. Ministers remain optimistic that the majority of this “core” group will be evacuated.

The UK also wants to evacuate other Afghan citizens, including politicians, civil servants, judges and those who have helped with humanitarian efforts. A government source said the August 31 deadline meant thousands in this group were unlikely to make it out…….

France said it was expecting its last civilian evacuation flight to leave tomorrow.….

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly

Why the Kabul deadline is really this week


Last edited by ORAC; 25th Aug 2021 at 07:01.
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 06:38
  #503 (permalink)  
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Politico:

POLITICO’s Lara Seligman and Alex Thompson say the Taliban yesterday began halting people trying to get through the airport gates, including both Afghans and American citizens:

“The situation is becoming increasingly dire for those who have not yet been able to get out. American citizens are routinely being turned away by Afghan guards at the airport despite showing U.S. passports, according to five sources familiar with the situation.

“In one instance, a guard told a group to leave the area or he would shoot them. In another, an Afghan interpreter and his family were beaten by Afghan guards after being rejected at the gates, and are now sleeping in their car because the Taliban burned down their house.”

This flies in the face of everything Biden and Johnson said following the G7 call and leaves it hard not to conclude that Western leaders’ policy on Afghanistan is well out of step with the reality in Kabul.

In Washington, the Biden administration is being accused of “gaslighting” the public over the situation at the airport. A former State Department official tells my POLITICO U.S. colleagues: “I don’t think the president’s rhetoric matches the conditions on the ground.”…..
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 08:12
  #504 (permalink)  
 
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The reality is that the Taliban now form the Govt of Afghanistan - not something i think that many people are very happy about - I'm sure they are keen to dispense "justice" to the opposition - much as would happen if the boot was on the other foot - as it was for 15 years.
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 09:02
  #505 (permalink)  
 
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Nato General sums up where it all went wrong

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/afgha...lained-1164278
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 09:21
  #506 (permalink)  
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The reality is that the Taliban now form the Govt of Afghanistan
I fear that is far from the truth. They may have deposed the previous government but are far from capable, let alone able to afford, to form a government.

The entire civil service is AWOL fearing for their lives. There is no money, and no one technically qualified, to run any ministry, maintain any utilities or organise and distribute food, water or other essentials across the country.

The weekly flights from the USA of, literally, pallets of dollar bills to keep the country running have stopped, as have all inbound remittances from the Afghan diaspora as companies such as Western Union have shit down in country. Most aid agency staff have evacuated.

it is being suggested that countries such as Pakistan, Iran, Russia and China may step up to the plate to replete Western donors. Don’t hold your breath. The first two are bankrupt and don’t have the cash. Russia has an economy the same size as Spain.

That leaves China, and China doesn’t do grants - it does loans where the terms are harshly enforced - as many Asian and African countries and now learning t9 their cost as the Chinese take over ports, airports and railways.

Unfortunately Afghanistan might have raw ore, but it doesn’t have the infrastructure to support their extraction - be that any of the above or even an electricity grid.

It will be amusing to see if China lends even more* billions attempts to build the above and then get their money back. Russia and America will watch with interest.

Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice shame in me….

* https://www.freightwaves.com/news/20...in-afghanistan
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 14:53
  #507 (permalink)  
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If the Russians are now evacuating I would start taking the ISIS-K attack intelligence reports very seriously…

https://www.ft.com/content/c2cefce2-...5-c655217ff47a

Russia starts evacuations from Kabul as security situation worsens

Vladimir Putin has ordered Russia’s defence ministry to begin evacuating its citizens from Kabul as the Kremlin expressed increased concern at the security situation in Afghanistan.

Moscow has sent four military transport planes to evacuate more than 500 people, the defence ministry said on Wednesday, including Russians and citizens of Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Ukraine…..


Putin’s order marks a shift in Russia’s stance on the Taliban’s takeover. The Kremlin’s envoys had previously welcomed the seizure of control by the Islamist group, describing it as a potential boost for security in the region.

But there are now increased concerns about security in the Afghan capital, particularly after the Taliban on Tuesday blocked the road to Kabul airport for Afghans, threatening to cut off evacuations for those vulnerable to reprisals from the Islamist movement.

“ It’s a developing situation. Time is tight. The situation remains very tense,” said Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman….

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Old 25th Aug 2021, 18:27
  #508 (permalink)  
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 18:48
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I don't know if there is any validity in what I am about to propose but I wanted to throw it out there and get peoples opinions.

A reporter today made the comment "We don't know what the Americans have agreed behind the scenes".
This got me thinking. It is innevitable that the Taliban (renamed) will be the government of Afghanistan. They have to oppose ISIS.
So is there any creedance to the proposition that equipment being left behind has been `given` to the Taliban to provide them some kind of capability?
I'm not talking the Blackhawks as it's unlikely anyone other than a bona-fide military could operate them.
But vehicles, munitions and what have you.
Politically you might not want to give it to them but if they just happened across it....
This could also be born out of my credulity at believing that a large military couldn't withdraw without a scorced earth policy (militarilly speaking) or at least with some semblance of professionalism,
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 18:51
  #510 (permalink)  
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More on the existential problems the Afghan economy is shortly to experience.

https://fullstackeconomics.com/afgha...shock-taliban/

A painful trade shock is coming to Afghanistan
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 18:57
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Seems like a timely moment to highlight three articles which point to corruption as one of the key reasons for failure of the Afghan nation building project. This was known, and ignored. Read them in order, it's frustrating...

Sarah Chayes - The Ides of August

Mike Mullen (former CJCS) admits he was wrong

ANA General Sami Sadat on why the ANA collapsed
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 19:00
  #512 (permalink)  
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As indicated previously, it looks like some time on Friday when the UK closes its gates and pulls out.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/h...says-90n2b5v3z


Harrowing struggle for Afghan refugees to reach Kabul airport, British commander says

The British officer in charge of the evacuation from Kabul has told of “harrowing and extreme conditions” faced by refugees attempting to reach the airport, while UK forces are increasingly fearful of a terrorist attack.

Brigadier Dan Blanchford said the rescue mission was “working pretty well” once people reached the processing centre but acknowledged those trying to reach the airport were struggling through “desperate conditions” as the Taliban step up attacks on people fleeing.

Defence sources believe there are about 2,000 people on the Afghan relocation programme still be to be flown to Britain before the evacuation has to end in the next 24 to 48 hours.

While the government is confident about bringing home those at the airport, with 2,000 now leaving every day, officials accept that some still in Taliban-controlled areas will be left behind.…..

British troops are living out of rucksacks at the airport in order to maximise the number of refugees who can be put on flights. Equipment has already began to be flown home so that the civilian airlift can go on as long as possible before efforts turn to packing up the British military presence.

Troops are said to be down to their last rations with only the clothes they are wearing and day-packs so that time and flight capacity can be focused on Afghans. However, there is an acknowledgement that the airlift will have to end some days before the final departure of western troops so that the military departure can be organised.

Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, a former head of the armed forces, said operations would have to end this week with some people “almost certainly” left behind.

“I would say 48 hours and then in some instances, I’ve no doubt they will sneak others in who arrived late along with our own people,” he told Today on BBC Radio 4. “But that’s the position in which the West and Nato have now gotten themselves, sadly.”
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 19:07
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"Troops are said to be down to their last rations with only the clothes they are wearing and day-packs"

We ask a great deal of our men and women. My thanks, thoughts and indeed prayers.
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 19:08
  #514 (permalink)  
 
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Again read this Generals assessment I agree with what he says.

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/afgha...lained-1164278

Biden should never have started negotiations over the evacuation, nor should he have put a time limit upon the departure, he should also have also told the Taliban to stop interfering with those attempting to enter the airport or face retribution, sadly he has given the power away.
You now are watching the USA being ridiculed and being subservient to a bunch of armed peasants all due to the efforts of one man who comes across as totally out of his depth..
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 19:12
  #515 (permalink)  
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I would assume that SF forces could, or will, set up FARPs to refuel the non-AAR helps to enable the last wave of troops and others to leave and reach safe territory?

I am presuming enough troops will be required to hold the pans, taxiways, runway and ATC to stop them being stormed and full of frantic Afghans as the last flights depart - and then Helos to take them out to where TacAir C-130s can extract them.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...ment-vvmhzn6c5

Biden’s choice: evacuate Afghan civilians or save equipment

US military commanders have only days to decide whether to prioritise multimillion-dollar Chinooks and other helicopters over Afghan evacuees in the last flights out from Kabul before the August 31 deadline.

President Biden’s insistence that as much equipment as possible should be saved means commanders will have to choose between reducing the number of Afghan evacuees to make room inside the giant C-17 Globemaster aircraft, or sacrifice the helicopters to provide maximum space for those desperate to leave.

A spokesman at US Central Command, which has overall charge of operations in Afghanistan, said it would not comment on the assets it had remaining in Kabul, nor its plans for them. However, the Pentagon has said any equipment left behind will be destroyed.

“Obviously there is a strong bias to be able to get our material out with our people [troops]. [But] if there needs to be destruction or other disposition of equipment at Hamid Karzai international airport, then we will do that and do it appropriately,” said John Kirby, the Pentagon’s press secretary.

More than a dozen helicopters are being used at Kabul airport for security missions and evacuations beyond the facility. They include CH-47F Chinooks, UH-60 Black Hawks and AH-64 Apaches. Three Chinooks were involved in evacuating 169 American diplomatic staff to Kabul airport.

In addition, the US Army’s elite 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, also present at the airport, has its own modified versions of the Chinook and Black Hawk as well as A/MH-6 “Little Bird” light helicopters.

Standard Chinooks, Black Hawks and Apaches cannot be refuelled in flight and have to be transported beyond their range by aircraft. Those adapted for special operations do have midair refuelling capabilities.

The C-17 Globemaster, which in one notable flight carried 830 Afghan men, women and children from Kabul to al-Udeid airbase in Qatar, will play the key role in shipping military equipment back to the US.

A C17 plane can take a single Chinook helicopter, or two Apaches or two Black Hawks. In wartime and emergency situations troops could also be packed in around the helicopters. However, for safety reasons, it seems unlikely that US military commanders would risk that arrangement with Afghan evacuees.

US troops disabled or destroyed large amounts of equipment when they abandoned Bagram airbase north of Kabul early last month. However, all helicopters at the base were extracted.

The only helicopters known to have been destroyed so far in the US withdrawal have been seven CH-46E Sea Knights used by the state department at the American embassy in Kabul.

Those helicopters, belonging to the State Department air wing, along with several light armoured vehicles at the embassy, were disabled or destroyed after the 4,000 staff had been evacuated.

Last edited by ORAC; 25th Aug 2021 at 19:25. Reason: Sp
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 19:16
  #516 (permalink)  
 
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Nutloose

Neatly ignoring the fact that it was Trump who negotiated with the Taliban. Trump who released the Taliban leader in 2018. Trump who invited the Taliban to Camp David. Trump who ordered the release of 5000 Taliban fighters.

There are photographs of Pompeo meeting the Taliban!

But hey, it's all Biden's fault.
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 19:45
  #517 (permalink)  
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But it is.

Biden has always been even more determined to leave Afghanistan that’s Trump ever was. He has spent over 8 months reversing just about every policy Trump implemented both internationally and internally. He went around the world, especially to Europe, declaring the old Trump policies had gone and cooperation was the new game in town.

Then he, no one else, decided the timetable for the pull-out without consultation with allies. He had the military abandon Bagram overnight without even telling the Afghan station commander and Afghan Air Force. He would pulled out the rest of the troops and set up the ground for the debacle at Kabul airport.

Protest as he may he owns this disaster and cannot evade responsibility for it. It will be the elephant in the room at the next election - whoever stands for the Democrats, and his retreat from Afghanistan will forever the lead item in his biography and obituary.

To quote Shakespeare.

"Nothing in his life became him, like the leaving it"
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 19:56
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Rubbish!

You forget that Trump wanted withdrawl by May 2021. It was Trump that did not negotiate with allies.

Your revisionist history is utterly pathetic.
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 20:20
  #519 (permalink)  
 
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ORAC is not talking about history, he is talking about now, the "now" tragedy evolving in Kabul and at the airport.

Trump was yesterday, Biden is today, Biden is culpable, Biden has done worse than failed, he has betrayed his allies and his friends. He is finished, but too late for many.
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Old 25th Aug 2021, 20:22
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Biden was sold a pup by Trump. Why is it you can't see that?
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