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Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

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Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

Old 8th Jul 2021, 05:51
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by usedtobeATC View Post
At first, British soldiers promoted European civilization in India and Afghanistan and drew Durand lines, until now the region can`t calm down. Then the Americans seized Iraq, so much so that gangsters crawled out of all the holes there and democracy went everywhere in the American way. In Syria, too, if the Russians had not prevented it would have been the same. The next hundred years, perhaps, the Chinese will promote their own orders there. I forgot to mention about the Russians in Afghanistan, at least they were building socialism there.
At least the original British interventions in Afghanistan had some intellectual and pragmatic justification, namely to stop the threat (probably nonexistent) of Russian interference in India.
The justification for the US intervention in Afghanistan was equally valid , namely to capture Osama Bin Laden and shut down Al Qaeda , but rapidly disintegrated with the total inability to understand Pakistans position and a refusal to negotiate with the Taliban, who probably would have given Bin Laden up.
Hence 20 years of folly.
The USA since WW2 has never really worked out what its Superpower status really means.
Empire or not ?
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 06:44
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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a quote from a newspaper article this last weekend.

'the basic error we made, was we thought that democracy could be brought about from the barrel of a gun'
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 11:50
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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The problem with being the only Superpower has its own problems....as Tuk opines.

Throw in the changes in Government we go through every four to eight years depending upon who wins the National Election and one can understand the confusion that can bring to International politics.

If the Chinese are genuinely smart they shall beat us by means of Trade and Industry....and really cheap labor.

But...they too shall have to be very careful in managing their own growth and domestic financial situation.

For now the Russian Bear has had its claws trimmed...but over time they too can become a major player in the World Markets....especially if they get a lock on the energy supply to Western Europe.

We have to be looking way into the future when negotiating current deals....such as the pipelines from Russia to the West while stopping new pipelines between Candada and the USA.
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 14:59
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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China has maybe 20 years before the burden of carrying an enormous number of old people becomes overwhelming. Problem with a one-child policy is that eventually each child has to pay for two parents ........ especially in a country with such a poor social service provision as the PRC. The population has just about stopped growing - they don't have any inward migration to fill the gaps.
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 16:15
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
China has maybe 20 years before the burden of carrying an enormous number of old people becomes overwhelming. Problem with a one-child policy is that eventually each child has to pay for two parents ........ especially in a country with such a poor social service provision as the PRC. The population has just about stopped growing - they don't have any inward migration to fill the gaps.
Presumably the Chinese strategy is to build up enough assets world wide near term that the returns will then help support their aging population, sort of Belt and Road as a Social Security payer.
No idea whether that can work, but it seems more sensible than blowing $15 trillion on completely counterproductive Mid East wars.
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 17:02
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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The Taliban delegation arrived in Moscow this evening
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 19:31
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For now the Russian Bear has had its claws trimmed...
You wouldn't think so from where I'm sitting.

Mind you, they are on occasion as inscrutable as the Chinese, sometimes been in meetings with a bevy of mid-ranking GRU officers discussing this and that and found that four hours later, at conclusion, we've progressed backwards. That is a feat, they certainly knocked back the after meeting (gratis) Vodka's though.

Chinese? Long multi hour meetings and not ONE smile. In fact one Chinese chap smiled at me after a meeting once and I was genuinely shocked. They are the true tacticians!
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Old 8th Jul 2021, 20:20
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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Flash....as compared to in the past....was my reference....for sure they are not benign and at times Putin seems to want to see the old glory days of the Soviet Union return.

They have proven to very worthy adversaries over the years as we well know.

Or....we have proven ourselves to be easy targets far too often.

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Old 9th Jul 2021, 00:43
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Originally Posted by SASless View Post
Or....we have proven ourselves to be easy targets far too often.
And here lies the problem, clueless politicians way out of their depth!
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Old 9th Jul 2021, 01:51
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Meanwhile, the Taliban called China 'a welcome friend' in helping reconstruction and said they would guarantee the safety of workers and investors if they return. The spokesman claimed the Taliban already control 85% of the country.
See: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/polit...ource=rss_feed
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Old 9th Jul 2021, 07:43
  #31 (permalink)  
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Not a thickness of paper between his and Trump’s policy in the region. I wonder what it means for the counter insurgency operations in Africa as Daesh and there like expand into sub-Saharan states. The mention of Yemen is interesting considering the pressure to lessen support for SA in that conflict.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a...ance-r2s2cvwhs


Afghanistan is not worth more US lives, says Joe Biden as Taliban advance

President Biden insisted that fears of a bloody Taliban takeover of Afghanistan would not reverse the US troop withdrawal as fighting raged in the west of the country for control of a provincial capital.

With the Pentagon saying that the pull-out was “90 per cent complete”, Biden, 78, said that the US mission would be over by August 31 and that the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces had to take responsibility for defending the government of President Ghani amid fears that Kabul would soon come under attack….

The president said that the US would continue to provide military training and humanitarian assistance but made clear that he was not willing to risk any more American lives in an Afghan civil war….

It was “not in the national interest to continue fighting” now that al-Qaeda had been defeated there, he added.

“I will not send another generation of Americans to war in Afghanistan with no reasonable expectation of achieving a different outcome,” he said…..

Jen Psaki, Biden’s spokeswoman, conceded that “it is a 20-year war that has not been won militarily” but said that “we did exactly what we intended to do”.

The threat from al-Qaeda and Islamic State now came from other countries such as Syria, Yemen and Somalia, she said.…


The spiralling violence in northern Afghanistan has stoked fears in the surrounding former Soviet republics that ethnic tensions within their own countries could be ignited…..

Russia has said it will step in to protect the former Soviet states if it has to.
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Old 9th Jul 2021, 11:00
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Will the Russians be fighting a political insurgency or a religious based insurgency?

China has its own issues with the Religion of Peace in those regions within China that has significant numbers of adherents to that particular religion.

What happens if Al Qeada finds new support by elements of the Taliban in Afghanistan?
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Old 9th Jul 2021, 11:08
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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...a refusal to negotiate with the Taliban, who probably would have given Bin Laden up.
It was precisely because the Taliban refused to give up Bin Laden that the US and its allies invaded.
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Old 9th Jul 2021, 13:56
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When Persia was the world empire

They had tried to civilise some ruffian squabbling Greek city states. But got a bloody nose at Plataea.
​​​​​
λέγεται δὲ καὶ τάδε γενέσθαι, ὡς Ξέρξης φεύγων ἐκ τῆς Ἑλλάδος Μαρδονίῳ τὴν κατασκευὴν καταλίποι τὴν ἑωυτοῦ· Παυσανίην ὦν ὁρῶντα τὴν Μαρδονίου κατασκευὴν χρυσῷ τε καὶ ἀργύρῳ καὶ παραπετάσμασι ποικίλοισι κατεσκευασμένην, κελεῦσαι τούς τε ἀρτοκόπους καὶ τοὺς ὀψοποιοὺς κατὰ ταὐτὰ καθὼς Μαρδονίῳ δεῖπνον παρασκευάζειν.

This other story is also told. When Xerxes fled from Hellas, he left to Mardonius his own establishment. Pausanias, seeing Mardonius' establishment with its display of gold and silver and gaily colored tapestry, ordered the bakers and the cooks to prepare a dinner such as they were accustomed to do for Mardonius.

9.82.2 ὡς δὲ κελευόμενοι οὗτοι ἐποίευν ταῦτα, ἐνθαῦτα τὸν Παυσανίην ἰδόντα κλίνας τε χρυσέας καὶ ἀργυρέας εὖ ἐστρωμένας καὶ τραπέζας τε χρυσέας καὶ ἀργυρέας καὶ παρασκευὴν μεγαλοπρεπέα τοῦ δείπνου, ἐκπλαγέντα τὰ προκείμενα ἀγαθὰ κελεῦσαι ἐπὶ γέλωτι τοὺς ἑωυτοῦ διηκόνους παρασκευάσαι Λακωνικὸν δεῖπνον.

They did his bidding, but Pausanias, when he saw golden and silver couches richly covered, and tables of gold and silver, and all the magnificent service of the banquet, was amazed at the splendor before him, and for a joke commanded his own servants to prepare a dinner in Laconian fashion. When that meal, so different from the other, was ready, Pausanias burst out laughing and sent for the generals of the Greeks.

9.82.3 ὡς δὲ τῆς θοίνης ποιηθείσης ἦν πολλὸν τὸ μέσον, τὸν Παυσανίην γελάσαντα μεταπέμψασθαι τῶν Ἑλλήνων τοὺς στρατηγούς, συνελθόντων δὲ τούτων εἰπεῖν τὸν Παυσανίην, δεικνύντα ἐς ἑκατέρην τοῦ δείπνου παρασκευήν· “ἄνδρες Ἕλληνες, τῶνδε εἵνεκα ἐγὼ ὑμέας συνήγαγον, βουλόμενος ὑμῖν τοῦδε τοῦ Μήδων ἡγεμόνος τὴν ἀφροσύνην δέξαι, ὃς τοιήνδε δίαιταν ἔχων ἦλθε ἐς ἡμέας οὕτω ὀϊζυρὴν ἔχοντας ἀπαιρησόμενος.” ταῦτα μὲν Παυσανίην λέγεται εἰπεῖν πρὸς τοὺς στρατηγοὺς τῶν Ἑλλήνων. 9.82.3

When these had assembled, Pausanias pointed to the manner in which each dinner was served and said: “Men of Hellas, I have brought you here because I desired to show you the foolishness of the leader of the Medes who, with such provisions for life as you see, came here to take away from us our possessions which are so pitiful.” In this way, it is said, Pausanias spoke to the generals of the Greeks.

Last edited by RatherBeFlying; 9th Jul 2021 at 22:54.
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Old 9th Jul 2021, 14:50
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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“Never Mind, we’ll do it ourselves” written by Alec Bierbauer and retired Col. Mark Cooter is well worth the read if you want a little insight on the Bin Laden issues, before and after 9/11.
Details the use of Predator, to include the initial trialing and arming with Hellfire, the interagency fighting, indecision, and the SA-3 donut hole, amongst other things, from after Bosnia, through to almost current times.

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Old 9th Jul 2021, 23:37
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat View Post
I’m curious, as you’ve popped up on every thread of this nature with a similar sentiment , how long you spent in Afghanistan?

the Taliban are committed and willing to die for their cause, but they aren’t some ninja type of master tactician. They didn’t win the war, Western politicians surrendered. It started withGeorge W shifting forces to the sideshow in Iraq at a critical time, was confirmed by Obama announcing a withdrawal and now completed by Biden’s last flight out of Saigon exodus

Please don’t regale us with the view of the Daily Mail editor.
Doesn't it also depend on what we were trying to achieve? Perhaps, we got too tied up trying to "make everything right" in our own eyes regarding democratic institutions, women's rights etc. I'm for all those things, but frankly, it's impossible to do it for a country that wouldn't do it for themselves. As ugly as things will get after we depart, it wouldn't be any different 20 years from now, except for the loss of too many of our troops (including allies) in the meantime. I don't see a perfect solution. Perhaps we should have stuck to "getting Al Queda" and establishing just enough defensive security for that, and leaving when that's achieved all that we could.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 03:21
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Originally Posted by melmothtw View Post
It was precisely because the Taliban refused to give up Bin Laden that the US and its allies invaded.
Yes, except that was the invasion itself that welded the Taliban onto Al Qaeda.
Prior to the invasion Mullah Omar was under pressure to break ties with Al Qaeda.
The Talibans ambitions were and remain local , not global. Many in the Taliban were irritated by Bin Ladens campaign against the US. It was seen as a liability and a distraction.
The US could have handled it differently and peeled the Taliban off.
But that leaves the Taliban in charge.
It was a conundrum.
Twenty years later we are back where we started.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 05:42
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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Why doesn't the Afghan National Army work with all the training and equipment given? Without it we will be back to blown up Buddhas in no time.
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 09:27
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The Russians invaded Afghanistan in 1978, but the whole thing was too much for them and they left the country ten-years later in February 1989.
Photos show Soviet troops in Kabul and as they departed the country in February 1989. (Photos from US Dept. for Defence and Novosti).


Soviet Troops in Kabul



Soviets Departing February 1989
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Old 10th Jul 2021, 09:49
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Originally Posted by Warmtoast View Post
The Russians invaded Afghanistan in 1978, but the whole thing was too much for them and they left the country ten-years later
I'm only familiar with the man from the Tom Hanks movie but I gather that Charlie Wilson played no small role in encouraging the Soviet Army to turn tail for home.
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