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Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

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Afghanistan 2021 Onwards

Old 16th Aug 2021, 07:07
  #181 (permalink)  
 
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Will the Taliban decide to extend there empire.
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 07:26
  #182 (permalink)  
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Info for those on the ground from Politico:

Embassies have now set up makeshift offices to coordinate the evacuation at the Kabul airport. There are reports the British and German Embassy staff are staying behind to process visas for their Afghan employees. And to speed things up and cut through red tape, Berlin has also agreed to process visa requests on German ground after the evacuation, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said.

The U.S. acting ambassador has left Kabul, and the embassy is likely to be shuttered by Tuesday, two U.S. officials told our Stateside colleagues They report certain staffers will continue their work from the airport, protected by roughly 6,000 U.S. troops. Overnight, the U.S. Embassy issued a security alert warning of the “airport taking fire” and told U.S. citizens to shelter in place.

It is unclear how long the U.S. will be able or willing to hold the airport — with Germany’s Spiegel reporting that Washington has warned counterparts it was planning to wrap up the operation within 72 hours….

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kyiv was also helping with evacuations. “Ukrainian aircraft stationed in Afghanistan took citizens of Ukraine, the Netherlands, Croatia, Belarus, Afghanistan out of Kabul,” he tweeted. “We don’t abandon our people & help others.” The U.S. is also helping to evacuate Europeans, German media reports….

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said Paris has stepped up rescue efforts and is launching its first evacuations to the United Arab Emirates, also promising “full mobilization to allow the safe and rapid evacuation of all our nationals and individuals from Afghan civil society threatened because of their engagements.”

Spain announced it would send two airplanes Monday to Dubai for the first phase of evacuating embassy staff, local Afghan workers who helped Madrid and their families, as well as EU personnel.

“We will support the EU and its foreign service for an orderly departure of European and local personnel. We will not leave anyone behind,” said Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares.….

Meanwhile, Albania and Kosovo both said Sunday they had accepted a request from Washington to temporarily bring in Afghan refugees seeking visas to enter the United States, according to Reuters.
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 08:14
  #183 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
They’ll take them home. Even the CH-47 easily fits into a C-17.
Theres also the option of ferrying them out to via the North and AT from K2 or elsewhere.
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 08:50
  #184 (permalink)  
 
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Yet another example of the Western world not understanding (or not wanting to understand, as it may get in the way of quick profits) a "country" that is tribal and probably doesn't have an over-riding national identity unless one has been forced on it (along with some arbitrary borders), either by its own rulers or by invaders (as with most of Asia, the Middle East, former Yugoslavia, etc etc).
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 08:57
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Originally Posted by ORAC
They’ll take them home. Even the CH-47 easily fits into a C-17.
Then let’s hope it doesn’t come down to people or equipment.
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 09:22
  #186 (permalink)  
 
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Dreadful reports on Twitter just now.
Video of people clinging to sponsoon of C-17 as it took off... reports several fell to their deaths.
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 09:27
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Originally Posted by ORAC
They’ll take them home. Even the CH-47 easily fits into a C-17.
People or Chinooks, I know which I would airlift out, the other would be left burning on the runway.
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 09:39
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 09:49
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https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...sh-back-crowds
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 09:58
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To see juniors hidden twitter feed of the mayhem, click quote then copy the link.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...its-people-out
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 10:02
  #191 (permalink)  
 
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More video online of people perched on the right hand sponsoon of a C-17 taxying at high speed...
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 10:06
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With Apaches trying to clear a path for the taxying C17's Tartare

Watch this

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-58219963
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 10:30
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Re the question of how the helicopters will be recovered: won't they just fly across to Pakistan and be recovered from there? With diplomatic clearance, of course; the Pakistanis wouldn't dare to refuse it. It's only 110 miles from Kabul to the border, and then another 20 miles to Peshawar or 90 to Islamabad. Besides, a few hundred troops will be needed to keep the runway clear of civilians for the final fixed-wing departure and they will presumably depart by helicopter with Apache escort. I should imagine that care is being taken to ensure that enough fuel remains (or is flown in) to get them all out.

Last edited by Easy Street; 16th Aug 2021 at 10:41.
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 10:39
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Aircrew on the ground in Kabul are going to be having to make some horrific decisions, and then be witnessing the outworkings at first hand. I cannot begin to imagine the distress there as we watch from thousands of miles away. We can argue the politics forever and a day, but surely there is no doubt that a sustained presence would have prevented this meltdown. And what we are witnessing now will have ramifications for a generation.
I really feel for our troops on the ground, and the innocent Afghanis that are going to pay for this with their lives in the coming days.
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 11:03
  #195 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NWSRG
surely there is no doubt that a sustained presence would have prevented this meltdown.
I'm afraid there is very much doubt over that. A sustained Western presence would have caused suffering in other ways. From the most recent SIGAR report:

RS [RESOLUTE SUPPORT] reported 2,035 civilian casualties in April and May 2021, which included 705 deaths and 1,330 injuries. This total is nearly as high as the three months from January through March 2021 (2,149). According to RS, the top two causes of civilian casualties were improvised explosive devices and direct fire (e.g., rifle or machine-gun fire). As seen in Figure 2.31, these civilian casualties were nearly as high as the entire three month period last year (April–June 2020).

RS attributed about 93% of this quarter’s civilian casualties to antigovernment forces (40% to the Taliban, 38% to unknown insurgents, 14% to IS-K,
and less than 1% to the Haqqani Network), as seen in Figure 2.30. About 2% were attributed to progovernment forces (2% to ANDSF), and about 5% to other or unknown forces. These percentages are roughly similar to long-term trends reported by RS
I've said it earlier in the thread, there was no 'stay' option. The Taliban was progressively taking control of the country, its tax revenues and the home villages of ANDSF members. In short they were winning. The level of civilian casualties was not 'low cost'. The level of ANDSF casualties was not 'low cost', so much so that the numbers have been classified for a couple of years now. The choices were to escalate in order to pause (never mind reverse) the Taliban's progress, or to get out. Both options end with the scenes we see today; the first option merely kicks it down the road and kills more people by prolonging the fighting.

The only* realistic way of avoiding today's scenes was a negotiated peaceful transition to a power-sharing arrangement with the Taliban. The time for that was some years ago, when the Kabul government still held a fig leaf of credibility and the West had tens of thousands of troops in place with no pre-announced timetable for withdrawal. A paradox of negotiation is that you should compromise when at your strongest. Unfortunately Ghani refused to consider it.

* In a limited sense, there is perhaps one other way, which is that US government departments could have paid earlier heed to the intent of their elected Presidents and drawn down their personnel numbers sooner so that the scale of the final airlift could have been smaller.

Edit: same arguments made here.

Last edited by Easy Street; 16th Aug 2021 at 11:58.
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 11:19
  #196 (permalink)  
 
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There's a Spooky en-route to Kabul as we speak...
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 11:41
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Germans currently saying they cannot take off because of people on the runway.
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 11:49
  #198 (permalink)  
 
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I am surprised these days the likes of the captured Humvees do not have a kill chip in them that can remotely disable them for good.
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 11:55
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I am surprised these days the likes of the captured Humvees do not have a kill chip in them that can remotely disable them for good.
Where would you put it such that the vehicle could not be repaired and such that it could not be hacked by the bad guys?
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Old 16th Aug 2021, 12:00
  #200 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
I am surprised these days the likes of the captured Humvees do not have a kill chip in them that can remotely disable them for good.
If by chip you mean huge load of explosives, it might work.
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