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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 27th Sep 2022, 01:20
  #9801 (permalink)  
fdr
 
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Originally Posted by MJ89
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574147433147269122
seen whispers of a 0.5kt scenario, upward.
would that have much EMP effect.

thats a similar size the the Beriut explosion if im not mistaken.
500 ton TNT equivalent may not have much of a bang compared with Tzar Bombs, but it will still lead to a rapid and severe response from the USA and from NATO. That response may not be nuclear in the first instance, but the use of the TNW or WMD of any sort is open to all comers who object to the criminal actions of Russia. Every signatory to the UN Charter has an epiphany at that point; either support a criminal terrorist using WMD and be treated as a co-conspirator, with the economic and diplomatic consequences, or to object to the actions of Putin'. Simple, stark choices, prior to any boots on ground, and there will almost certainly be both boots on ground and unfettered conventional arms supply to Ukraine to end Russian aggression and criminal actions..

We are well past the time.of calling Russia under Putin what it is, a criminal, terrorist state, and a sponsor of international terrorism. They have no compunction to kill their own people, they certainly have no objection to killing their neighbours.

On a military aviation theme, the use of TNW would drop all necessity to not upset Putin', there are available assets to provide the Ukrainian airforce and army, would be thinking that a few hundred Oh6/OH58s would be a starting point, for interdiction,along with gallons of UH1s, to give mobility behind the FEBA, C130's to give an air bridge to the east, and (yaay) A-10's to prove that they can do what they were designed to do, and swarms of F16's, to save them from being turned into targets down at Tyndall.

In meantime, warm clothes, and ammo... And sufficient PGM to remove the rail links to Russia for the next couple of years.

Last edited by fdr; 27th Sep 2022 at 20:09.
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 01:59
  #9802 (permalink)  
 
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Responding to post #9804:
Originally Posted by fdr
500 ton TNT equivalent may not have much of a bang compared with Tzar Bombs, but it will still lead to a rapid and severe response from the USA and from NATO. That response may not be nuclear in the first instance, but the use of the TNW or WMD of any sort is open to all comers who object to the criminal actions of Russia. Every signatory to the UN Charter has an epiphany at that point; either support a criminal terrorist using WMD and be treated as a co-conspirator, with the economic and diplomatic consequences, or to object to the actions of Pukin'. Simple, stark choices, prior to any boots on ground, and there will almost certainly be both boots on ground and unfettered conventional arms supply to Ukraine to end Russian aggression and criminal actions..

We are well past the time.of calling Russia under Pukin' what it is, a criminal, terrorist state, and a sponsor of international terrorism. They have no compunction to kill their own people, they certainly have no objection to killing their neighbours.

On a military aviation theme, the use of TNW would drop all necessity to not upset Pukin', there are available assets to provide the Ukrainian airforce and army, would be thinking that a few hundred Oh6/OH58s would be a starting point, for interdiction,along with gallons of UH1s, to give mobility behind the FEBA, C130's to give an air bridge to the east, and (yaay) A-10's to prove that they can do what they were designed to do, and swarms of F16's, to save them from being turned into targets down at Tyndall.

In meantime, warm clothes, and ammo... And sufficient PGM to remove the rail links to Russia for the next couple of years.
To have an EMP effect the explosion has to take place in the upper atmosphere. The effect wasn't discovered until an American high altitude burst 'Starfish Prime' took place, knocking out some power in Hawaii, 900 miles from the detonation center. The altitude of the shot was about 250 miles. A tactical low altitude burst wouldn't cause a major EMP event. It certainly would cause other effects.....

From Wikipedia (other sources available)....
A high-altitude nuclear detonation produces an immediate flux of gamma rays from the nuclear reactions within the device. These photons in turn produce high energy free electrons by Compton scattering at altitudes between (roughly) 20 and 40 km. These electrons are then trapped in the Earth's magnetic field, giving rise to an oscillating electric current. This current is asymmetric in general and gives rise to a rapidly rising radiated electromagnetic field called an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). Because the electrons are trapped essentially simultaneously, a very large electromagnetic source radiates coherently.The pulse can easily span continent-sized areas, and this radiation can affect systems on land, sea, and air. ... A large device detonated at 400–500 km (250 to 312 miles) over Kansas would affect all of the continental U.S. The signal from such an event extends to the visual horizon as seen from the burst point.
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 08:26
  #9803 (permalink)  
 
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Just noticed on FR24 8 Turkish Air flights in trail on their way from various points in turkey to Moscow. There may be more Im not seeing. Thought it a bit strange. I imagine they are pretty much empty and will be full on their return?
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 09:44
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It seems at leastl three Nordsteam gas pipelines are damaged (i.e. both Nordsteam 1 and Nordsteam 2). The Germans are reporting 7 bar remaining surface pressure. That is consistent with rupturing them at just over 70m of water depth. The water depths near the Danish island of Bornholm are of approximately that depth. It is somewhat unclear which pipes are damaged. There are 4 x 48" diameter pipes, and so far indications are somewhat ambiguous but suggest that perhaps three pipes are affected, but that could be confusion/misunderstanding in the reporting. Needless to say it takes a lot to rupture even one 48" pipeline of 100-bar+ pressure rating at any water depths, let alone multiple pipelines.at over 70m water depth. It is possible (gosh) that there is aviation activity relating to this but I have not looked too closely at that Seahawk track, or any other track. These are of course within NATO member state waters.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...usly-overnight

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ne-2022-09-27/


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 09:52
  #9805 (permalink)  
 
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I thought EU airspace was closed to all Russian aircraft?
There's a Russian Il-76 that has flown from Moscow along the Baltic and turned into German airspace and is heading south of Berlin currently.....??



Edit:
OK seems special permission flights related to nuclear fuel for Czech or Hungarian power stations. There was a similar flight 4 weeks ago.
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 09:58
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Originally Posted by GeeRam
I thought EU airspace was closed to all Russian aircraft?
There's a Russian Il-76 that has flown from Moscow along the Baltic and turned into German airspace and is heading south of Berlin currently.....??

Just one suggestion in the circumstances. Are they not allowed to fly pipeline monitoring missions for safety purposes ? Without knowing the Nordstream contracts and treaties I don't know, however that would be a normal arrangement. If it has flown over the Baltic has it followed the Nordsteam routes at all ?

EDIT : just seen your EDIT. So one of the civil nuclear flights.
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 10:07
  #9807 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by petit plateau
It seems at leastl three Nordsteam gas pipelines are damaged (i.e. both Nordsteam 1 and Nordsteam 2). The Germans are reporting 7 bar remaining surface pressure. That is consistent with rupturing them at just over 70m of water depth. The water depths near the Danish island of Bornholm are of approximately that depth. It is somewhat unclear which pipes are damaged. There are 4 x 48" diameter pipes, and so far indications are somewhat ambiguous but suggest that perhaps three pipes are affected, but that could be confusion/misunderstanding in the reporting. Needless to say it takes a lot to rupture even one 48" pipeline of 100-bar+ pressure rating at any water depths, let alone multiple pipelines.at over 70m water depth. It is possible (gosh) that there is aviation activity relating to this but I have not looked too closely at that Seahawk track, or any other track. These are of course within NATO member state waters.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...usly-overnight

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ne-2022-09-27/

https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status...50988744331274

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_2

The problem with that is there are more than one countries gas pipelines flowing under the sea, and they have just become legitimate targets if it is deemed to be a western act of sabotage.


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Old 27th Sep 2022, 10:13
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The proble with that is there are more than one countries gas pipelines flowing under the sea, and they have just become legitimate targets if it is deemed to be a western act of sabotage.
Not much chance of it being a Western act of sabotage.Most likely is a Russian one so as to be able to invoke force majeure clauses, as the compressor oil leak is about as convincing as dog ate my homework.Anyway NordStream AG statement confirms 2 x NS1 strings affected. No comment re NS2 as this NorStream AG legal entity is not operator of that asset. But we know that at least one of the NS2 lines is affected, perhaps both. So this could be either 3 or 4 lines affected.

https://www.nord-stream.com/press-in...-pipeline-526/

My guess is next action is request from Russia to send vessels and aircraft etc to investigate leak ......
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 10:43
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Danish Energy Authority announces a state of emergency over Nordstream.

Link:

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Old 27th Sep 2022, 11:42
  #9810 (permalink)  
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Chechen troops raping mobilised conscripts when they arrive as reinforcements…

…”In the area of ​​the settlement Berestovoye, where our military repulse the attacks of the Ukrainian nationalist battalions, an unprecedented incident occurred. Two servicemen of the People's Militia of the DPR, [names redacted] and who were mobilized from Dokuchaevsk and worked in the city administration before being mobilised, were raped by Chechens in front of their colleagues. The soldiers who wanted to protect our guys were threatened with weapons and promised to shoot them like dogs.“….
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 12:01
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Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst
Just noticed on FR24 8 Turkish Air flights in trail on their way from various points in turkey to Moscow. There may be more Im not seeing. Thought it a bit strange. I imagine they are pretty much empty and will be full on their return?
If that's the case, no doubt the fares being charged will more than cover the cost of the outbound leg too ...
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 12:07
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Well who would have guessed...


Poor bastards.
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 12:31
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Well who would have guessed...



https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...87624081690626

Poor bastards.
whats gona change in 2 days..
The republics are revolting, everything falling apart. stock markets diving worse then it fell on the 24th. do fear he might be stupid enough to try what do they say. escalate to de-esculate.
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 12:58
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New development around Lyman:

According Pro-Russian sources Ukrainian forces successfully crossed the Siversky Donetsk River. First UA recon units in armored cars reached Torsk and Kreminna. Russian troops abandoned the forest. Only 1 supply line left to Lyman.

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Old 27th Sep 2022, 13:06
  #9815 (permalink)  
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Russian military reaches new level of hilarity as the list of items conscripts must bring themselves is EVERYTHING.

Helmet, bullet proof vest, first aid kit, sleeping bag, boots, knife..on and on..



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Old 27th Sep 2022, 13:10
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First pic of the Nordstream leak.

Link:

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Old 27th Sep 2022, 13:40
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Swedish news outlet SVT is reporting that seismic sensors recorded explosions close to the pipelines on Monday. Link
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 13:40
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Video footage of the leaks:


Later edit: You may want to watch it directly on Twitter, for some reason it seems to play at a low resolution when it's played directly from here.

Last edited by MikeSnow; 27th Sep 2022 at 13:51.
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 14:04
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Russia will claim its homeland gets attacked if fights continue in the inherited occupied areas and then call out full war. Time to not blink first.

That doesn’t make any sense. What will happen is nothing! Business as usual. Crimea has already had a referendum is now considered part of Russia (in the Russians eyes) and it has been attacked. So there’s your answer for you.
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Old 27th Sep 2022, 15:00
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Originally Posted by M609
Swedish news outlet SVT is reporting that seismic sensors recorded explosions close to the pipelines on Monday. Link
"SVT can reveal that measuring stations in both Sweden and Denmark registered strong underwater explosions in the same area as the gas leaks on Monday. "There is no doubt that these are explosions," says Bjorn Lund, lecturer in seismology at the Swedish National Seismic Network, SNSN.

The first explosion was recorded at 2.03am on the night of Monday and the second at 7.04pm on Monday evening.

The warnings about the gas leaks came from the maritime administration at 1.52pm and 8.41pm on Monday, respectively, after ships detected bubbles on the surface.

SVT has obtained the coordinates of the measured explosions and they are in the same area where the gas leaks were registered."

Russia-Ukraine war: explosions reported near Nord Stream pipelines as gas leaks into Baltic Sea – live (theguardian.com)
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