Is Ukraine about to have a war?
Put it this way, if Russia drops a tactical nuke on Ukraine and there isn’t a proportional response, say NATO simply ramps up supply’s and operations in the area, that then gives Russia the belief that there will be no nuclear response, so they are free to drop another and another.
there are lots of doors to choose. [GO NUKE EARLY] is but one of a veritable smorgasbord of options for the politicians and military strategists to apply, and of course, that remains an option at all times. If this was chess, there are only around 10^40 ways the game unfolds, a subset of the ~ 4.8x10^44 legal moves available. In Ukraine, the main thing is that both sides are well aware that the other has the capability to end them at great personal cost, and there is a certainty that in retaliation for a direct nuclear attack, a secondary response is a certainty. There are a lot of doors to choose from at all times.
The west is simply restrained at present out of a desire to not escalate, however, that goes away if Russia escalates with any NBC weapons of mass destruction, and there are plentiful targets within the LEGAL Ukrainian borders that they can unleash a lot of conventional munitions on, while keeping the deterrents spun up in the background.
TNW use comes with an implied preference for a reliable delivery system, the number of busted artillery tubes, smoked MLRS, downed cruise missiles etc, and even the number of return-to-sender missiles suggest that the delivery means for TNWs are less than perfect. How does Putin explain popping a sunrise accidentally over his own troops and those that he has come to make either dead or with diminishing likelihood good Russia
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More Russian propaganda revealed for what it is
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 25th Sep 2022 at 09:50.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
The Russian economists Maxim Mironov (@mironov_fm) and Oleg @itskhoki (of IE University and UCLA respectively) have published an important thread estimating the likely demographic impacts of mobilisation on Russia. A translation follows. ⬇️
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...049665538.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...049665538.html
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
We went to the first Ukrainian checkpoint after Russian-held territory in Zaporizhzhia. All the men we spoke to said they were fleeing mobilisation into the Russian army. A few things:…..
“Even neutral / pro-Russian people we spoke to by phone inside the occupied territories said they would try to escape mobilisation. Not pro-Russian enough to die, as one person put it”.….
“Nataliya, a young woman we met at the checkpoint, told us that the men in her village had decided that if the Russians were stupid enough to mobilise them and give them guns, they'd turn them against the occupiers.”…
“Even neutral / pro-Russian people we spoke to by phone inside the occupied territories said they would try to escape mobilisation. Not pro-Russian enough to die, as one person put it”.….
“Nataliya, a young woman we met at the checkpoint, told us that the men in her village had decided that if the Russians were stupid enough to mobilise them and give them guns, they'd turn them against the occupiers.”…
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I am pretty confident that there are a whole list of scenarios that both politicians and armed forces within NATO have discussed so they could be implemented at short notice.
I'm also sure that the details are as unavailable to Putin as is possible at current times, so he cannot plan to circumvent them. Anything on this discussion group is the same sort of wild uninformed guesses as he might make ( or possibly as any other paranoid unbalanced dictator might make).
I'm also sure that the details are as unavailable to Putin as is possible at current times, so he cannot plan to circumvent them. Anything on this discussion group is the same sort of wild uninformed guesses as he might make ( or possibly as any other paranoid unbalanced dictator might make).
This am the US National security advisor, Jake Sullivan was asked about response from the US should Vlad go nuclear. He was understandably cagey in his response but twice said the response would “catastrophic” for Russia. He also said that if Vlad decides to use nuclear weapons, he will do so knowing full well what the US response will be.
It would be naïve to assume these are all identical.
Re the re-armament of the late 1930s, I seem to recall that Hawkers began full production of the Hurricane long before the official order. My father who had great affection for the sturdy airframe always maintained that this was the reason why we won the Battle of Britain -- in which the Hurricane outnumbered the superb but short-supply Spitfire.
Putin has mobilized Father Frost. I reckon the rest of the bunch are his elves. Haven't seen any reindeers yet, those will probably have red stars on their tails.
Many sources claim that Ukrainians have crossed Oskil river on multiple locations pushing Russians towards east. Oskil is the best (last)natural defense line before the city of Luhansk and Russian border so if true this is significant progress. Hopefully they can advance from those beach heads.
Reportedly destroyed Russian forces in Lyman.
I have no idea what hit them but it must've been big, looking at how those MT-LB's have blown off and burned thoroughly
I have no idea what hit them but it must've been big, looking at how those MT-LB's have blown off and burned thoroughly
Might be an Elephant in the room question:
But if the Russian forces are being shown to be incompetent (as seen by many videos in this forum), and are under supplied with poor equipment - why hasn't Ukraine with all its 'new' tech weapons, good supplies, intel and high morale been making far more progress?
Ukraine hasn't seemed to be on any more large offensives lately since that last one a month ago.
But if the Russian forces are being shown to be incompetent (as seen by many videos in this forum), and are under supplied with poor equipment - why hasn't Ukraine with all its 'new' tech weapons, good supplies, intel and high morale been making far more progress?
Ukraine hasn't seemed to be on any more large offensives lately since that last one a month ago.
Obba, RuAF moved their best to Kherson where the battle is fierce and moves slowly. Because those best parts are south, the north/east is poorly defended (and btw the mobilized troops on their way to the front are even worse for they have no training and no battle experience), hence Kharkiv success.
But you can push only so far without resupply and preferably rotation. We have no idea how much fresh troops Ukraine has i reserve to keep the pressure on.
And, something IS going on as we write in the eastern front.
But you can push only so far without resupply and preferably rotation. We have no idea how much fresh troops Ukraine has i reserve to keep the pressure on.
And, something IS going on as we write in the eastern front.
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Another armchair general speaks. 
I'll offer a guess for you: they intend to make sure that they don't overextend themselves because they want to keep whatever ground they regain.
I repeat, that is a guess.
I will leave to the government and senior leaders in Ukraine the business of running their war. Fighting well when on the defensive is a bit different from fighting well when on the offensive. Their ability to set up and execute the counteroffensive in the Kharkiv area was a demonstration of competence.
But if the Russian forces are being shown to be incompetent (as seen by many videos in this forum), and are under supplied with poor equipment - why hasn't Ukraine with all its 'new' tech weapons, good supplies, intel and high morale been making far more progress?
Ukraine hasn't seemed to be on any more large offensives lately since that last one a month ago.
Ukraine hasn't seemed to be on any more large offensives lately since that last one a month ago.
I'll offer a guess for you: they intend to make sure that they don't overextend themselves because they want to keep whatever ground they regain.
I repeat, that is a guess.
I will leave to the government and senior leaders in Ukraine the business of running their war. Fighting well when on the defensive is a bit different from fighting well when on the offensive. Their ability to set up and execute the counteroffensive in the Kharkiv area was a demonstration of competence.
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Quiet strategy against a slowly depleting opponent, instead of an heroic cavalry charge?
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They also lost a lot of Ukrainian troops apparently in Kherson as the land is flat and open, so they got pummelled when forming up, there are films of all the hedgerows being hit around fields where they were, hence that three pronged attack hasn’t been as planned.
But as said they would need to replenish and regroup while securing their Kharkiv gains, they stopped at the River which is a defendable position.
But as said they would need to replenish and regroup while securing their Kharkiv gains, they stopped at the River which is a defendable position.
Last edited by NutLoose; 25th Sep 2022 at 19:28.
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Damn.
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Might be an Elephant in the room question:
But if the Russian forces are being shown to be incompetent (as seen by many videos in this forum), and are under supplied with poor equipment - why hasn't Ukraine with all its 'new' tech weapons, good supplies, intel and high morale been making far more progress?
Ukraine hasn't seemed to be on any more large offensives lately since that last one a month ago.
But if the Russian forces are being shown to be incompetent (as seen by many videos in this forum), and are under supplied with poor equipment - why hasn't Ukraine with all its 'new' tech weapons, good supplies, intel and high morale been making far more progress?
Ukraine hasn't seemed to be on any more large offensives lately since that last one a month ago.
Second, usually attacking is a few times harder than defending. You can easily need 3 times more power to conduct an attack optimally, maybe even more. And as others mentioned, after such a quick progress, that almost nobody anticipated, they had to secure the areas they liberated, organize supply lines, the troops need rest, etc. You can't continually advance at full speed.
Third, the Russians were a bit taken by surprise by that offensive. Now the element of surprise and the panic among the Russians is less of a factor, so it's harder to progress.
Fourth, the rainy season started, which creates mud, so it's harder to attack over fields, forests, etc. They have to travel mostly on the roads, which makes things easier for the defenders.
Fifth, even in the last 12 days, the advances in Kharkiv, and northern Donetsk have not been negligible. At the moment they seem to have managed to almost completely encircle Lyman, the last important city in northern Donetsk.
And finally, Ukraine didn't receive as much equipment as they would have wanted from the west. In many categories, the main supplier of equipment for Ukraine so far has been Russia, considering all the abandoned or captured Russian equipment in this war.
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So much for weeks training, first reports of conscripts being killed in ukraine are being publicised
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1574133996967034881
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1574133996967034881