Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[dead_pan]

All of this sounds like an EU problem

How so? Is Ukraine in the EU?

PS There's this outfit called NATO which you may want to Google. Its all the talk ATM.

[Buster15]

Originally Posted by minigundiplomat

All of this sounds like an EU problem. I’m sure Manu will be on the Ukraine/Russia border to blame the UK any day.

What a bizarre post. Makes zero sense unless it is a joke.
So is it?

[fab777]

Originally Posted by Buster15

What a bizarre post. Makes zero sense unless it is a joke.
So is it?

This is BoJo. He just had a birthday party…

[ORAC]

Twitter

[NutLoose]

Ukraine's shopping list
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...ore/ar-AAT82dG

Here is a summary of the military equipment Kyiv has bought or been given or promised, and the requests still outstanding.

The UNITED STATES has provided over $2.5 billion in military aid since 2014, including Javelin anti-tank missiles, coastal patrol boats https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...sea-2021-11-20, Humvees, sniper rifles, reconnaissance drones, radar systems, night vision and radio equipment. A bipartisan group of U.S. senators https://www.reuters.com/world/us-sen...tin-2022-01-17 last week promised further supplies that could include Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, small arms and boats.

BRITAIN last week supplied a reported 2,000 short-range anti-tank https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...sia-2022-01-17 missiles and sent British specialists to deliver training. It has also provided Saxon armoured vehicles.

BALTIC STATES https://www.reuters.com/article/balt...-idUSL1N2U127L Estonia is sending Javelin anti-armour missiles and Latvia and Lithuania are providing Stinger missiles.

TURKEY https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...gan-2021-12-03 has sold Ukraine several batches of Bayraktar TB2 drones that it deployed against Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbass region, infuriating Moscow.

The CZECH REPUBLIC https://www.reuters.com/article/czec...-idUSL1N2U11RH said last week it plans to donate a shipment of 152mm artillery ammunition.

GERMANY https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ays-2022-01-22 is ruling out arms deliveries to Ukraine but is co-financing a $6 million field hospital and providing the necessary training.

UKRAINE'S WISHLIST of items it wants to buy or obtain includes:

- Helicopters, communications systems and light armoured vehicles from the United States

- NASAMS surface-to-air missile system from Norway

- Self-propelled DANA artillery system from Czech Republic, and shells for Soviet-made artillery with calibers of 120 mm and above

- Medium and short range air defence systems

(Reporting by Pavel Polityuk, editing by Mark Trevelyan, William Maclean)

[Recc]

Notable that with Canada's announcement today, all FVEY nations with an embassy in Kiev plan to evacuate diplomatic families. Nothing from NZ yet, though they only have consular representation in Ukraine. This suggests that there is still a very big gap between their intelligence assessment and that of some other European nations, particularly France, who still (publicly at least) see no evidence of an imminent invasion.

[Beamr]

Regarding France, they are worried as well:

France’s foreign ministry on Monday advised French nationals to avoid non-essential travel to Ukraine as tensions soared over the Russian military buildup, prompting NATO allies to put forces on standby and send ships and fighter jets to bolster Europe's eastern defences.

A French foreign ministry statement “strongly recommended” that nationals “postpone any travel to Ukraine that is not essential or urgent".

Due to the Russian military buildup on the border with its neighbour, France cautioned its nationals to “avoid border areas in the north and the east of the country", the statement said.


https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2...ussia-escalate

[NutLoose]

So much for Russia flogging their Gas and Oil to China instead of the West, sales of Oil have dropped again as Russia loses out to Saudi as their main oil supplier.

https://uawire.org/china-reduces-imp...f-russian-oil#

During the year, Russian oil companies sold 79.64 million tons of oil to Chinese customers, which is 4.5% less than a year earlier. The volume of supplies shrank to the levels of 2 years ago: in 2020, Russia exported 83.57 million tons to China, in 2019 - 77.7 million tons.

According to statistics, China has replaced Russian oil with imports of Middle Eastern grades.

[Lonewolf_50]

The Irish threaten to throw their toys out of the pram
Apparently, the live fire/Naval exercises near Ireland planned for next month are getting Dublin upset and/or nervous.

[fitliker]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/four-wa...urce-1.5751947
MOSCOW -- Political advisers from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany will meet in Paris on Jan. 26 for a fresh round of talks on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine, a source in the Russian delegation said on Monday.

The four-way talks will take place against the background of a broader standoff between Russia and the West, with tens of thousands of Russian troops positioned near Ukraine's borders.

Russia denies planning to invade Ukraine and says it is Kyiv that is preparing to attack Moscow-backed rebels in its breakaway eastern provinces.

[Beamr]

Finland is ramping up readiness. A long tweet but from someone whos in the know.

Twitter

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

The Irish threaten to throw their toys out of the pram
Apparently, the live fire/Naval exercises near Ireland planned for next month are getting Dublin upset and/or nervous.

Could the Irish not put something like a fishing fleet in the area of the exercise to scupper it.


.

[minigundiplomat]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

The Irish threaten to throw their toys out of the pram
Apparently, the live fire/Naval exercises near Ireland planned for next month are getting Dublin upset and/or nervous.

I’m sure the EU will send a navy.

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by minigundiplomat

I’m sure the EU will send a navy.

Riiight. Anything meaningful to contribute?

[ORAC]

Could the Irish not put something like a fishing fleet in the area of the exercise to scupper it.

Which is exactly what the fishermen have said they are going to do….


The Russian embassy in Dublin yesterday said it understood the fishing sector’s concerns about the integrity of marine resources but that there was no grounds to believe its naval drills next month would impact the biodiversity of the ocean.

“At the same time we would think that any attempts to interfere with military exercises would be [a] reckless and irresponsible act which could put in harm’s way both sailors and fishermen,” a spokesman said. “All that has been explained to the Irish South and West Fish Producers Organisation (ISWFPO ).”

Yestereday the head of ISWFPO said the Russian navy was “not welcome” and that fishing vessels would continue to operate in the region as part of a peaceful protest against the six-day military exercise.

Patrick Murphy, ISWFPO chief executive, confirmed he had been contacted by the Russian embassy and told that attempts to interfere with the exercise would be “reckless”.

“We’re not going out there to challenge the Russian navy or take on a warship,” he said. “We’re going fishing in our fishing zones and if they feel like we’re interfering with their activities, tough. We’re not moving and that is our right to peaceful protest.”

Leo Varadkar yesterday urged fishing vessels that plan to peacefully disrupt the Russian navy’s military drills not put themselves at risk……

“I suppose I would just say to them that these are military vessels,” the tanaiste said. “Whatever they choose to do in terms of any protests, just make sure that they don’t put themselves at risk.”

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by minigundiplomat

I’m sure the EU will send a navy.

They actually did in the early 1990's, but to the Adriatic in operation SHARP FENCE.
The WEU operation was later merged with a NATO operation - Maritime Guard - to become Operation Sharp Guard.
But as this Irish concern is being presented as a fisheries issue, I doubt the EU would put together an armed force for that.
On the other hand, I will guess that the Irish Coast Guard will deploy a ship to observe or monitor?

[Beamr]

There are over 500 fishing vessels of more than 10 metres in length in Ireland. That would make one congested fishing area if their catch would all head to one exercise area.

Source:
Pls type irish fishing fleet in your favorite search engine, that should do it.

[Herod]

To misquote Humphrey Bogart: "Of all the places in all the oceans in all the world, they had to sail into mine"

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Beamr

There are over 500 fishing vessels of more than 10 metres in length in Ireland. That would make one congested fishing area if their catch would all head to one exercise area.

Maybe the fish want to watch the Russian maritime exercise.
(Link broke for me, are you sure a character or two didn't drop out?)

Source: https://ec.europa.eu/oceans-and-fish...HqgmLNf3bnqIu2

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Maybe the fish want to watch the Russian maritime exercise.
(Link broke for me, are you sure a character or two didn't drop out?)

Thanks, I am apparently facing issues in copy/pasteing the link... however search engine should do it and reveal a document with time date 2019 and additional info of roughly 1500 fishing vessels under 10 meters length. Bit small for the high seas though.