Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[etudiant]

Originally Posted by Recc

Worth pointing out to you again (as you seem to often forget), the direct Russian intervention in Ukraine began in August 2014 with the first deployment of regular Russian forces into eastern Ukraine. This happened because the Russian backed insurgency was incapable of holding ground against the Ukrainian army. Without the Russian invasion, there would be no war in Ukraine.

Could you source that, please.
It sounds very definitive, but is not in line with the only comments from international observers that I remember seeing. Those comments specifically noted an absence of Russian forces.
Afaik, this began as a popular insurgency, kicked off by sizable elements of the Ukraine army turning against the government which they deemed hostile to Russian speaking Ukraine..

[Sue Vêtements]

Originally Posted by uxb99

I feel sorry for Neville Chamberlain. He tried for peace however misguided. Somebody had to. Especially after living through the First World War

I've said here many times that I think he knew exactly what he was doing and was prepared to destroy his reputation in an attempt to buy us just enough time to rearm before the second world war

and if that's the case, I wish we had more like him

[jolihokistix]

Originally Posted by albatross

An interesting look at Stalin and the Ukraine.
No wonder that Ukrainians aren’t exactly thrilled with Putrid’s invasion! Leading to an “Open Fire” response instead of an “Open Arms” reception to the marauding hordes.

https://youtu.be/3cN0hQ2eJYA

Thank you for posting this. It puts the whole thing into proper perspective.

[Thrust Augmentation]

Originally Posted by etudiant

Those comments specifically noted an absence of Russian forces.
Afaik, this began as a popular insurgency, kicked off by sizable elements of the Ukraine army turning against the government which they deemed hostile to Russian speaking Ukraine..

Where does the presence of the "Littlle green men" from early 2014 fit into that?

[Recc]

Originally Posted by etudiant

Could you source that, please.
It sounds very definitive, but is not in line with the only comments from international observers that I remember seeing. Those comments specifically noted an absence of Russian forces.
Afaik, this began as a popular insurgency, kicked off by sizable elements of the Ukraine army turning against the government which they deemed hostile to Russian speaking Ukraine..

It is beyond dispute that regular Russian forces were fighting in Eastern Ukraine by summer 2014. There is a vast literature on the subject, and I don't think that anyone serious (and sincere) would claim differently. Here are a few example. You may also recall that the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade rather famously shot down a Malaysian airliner around this time.


https://web.archive.org/web/20150508...aine_FINAL.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...led-in-ukraine
https://video.vice.com/en_us/video/s...8008e821c71e52

[tdracer]

Originally Posted by jolihokistix

Thank you for posting this. It puts the whole thing into proper perspective.

It's rather well documented that during the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, the Germans invading Ukraine were initially treated as liberators - such was the hatred of Stalin and his brutal treatment of the Ukraine people. Stalin even had a large dam breached in Ukraine to slow the German advance - without bothering to warn the Ukrainian people living downstream - meaning hundreds were drowned in the resultant flooding.
Of course, it didn't take long for the Nazi's to demonstrate they were even more brutal than Stalin, and that initial goodwill rapidly turned to rabid hate.

[cheekychimp]

Originally Posted by etudiant

Could you source that, please.
It sounds very definitive, but is not in line with the only comments from international observers that I remember seeing. Those comments specifically noted an absence of Russian forces.
Afaik, this began as a popular insurgency, kicked off by sizable elements of the Ukraine army turning against the government which they deemed hostile to Russian speaking Ukraine..

You are Putin's brother and I claim my £5. I've never read such utter **** as that which you spout.

[Winemaker]

Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements

I guess you never watched The Dirty Dozen

I've certainly enjoyed it, except for the slaughter at the end. Please note first that it's a movie; secondly, all the prisoners were condemned to death by hanging, thirdly, only one prisoner survived. It is true that conscripts and prisoners could be used as either cannon fodder or to do unimportant jobs, like stacking stuff or digging trenches; they certainly will not be soldiers. Conscripting civilians against their will (possibly an oxymoron) certainly will not generate good will from either the conscripts, their friends, or their families.

[ORAC]

How the Ukrainian forces raised the flag on Snake Island.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...sland-mission/

[beardy]

Originally Posted by etudiant

Sadly I don't think that would be the case. There was an ongoing civil war in eastern Ukraine between the local mostly Russian speaking population and the more anti Russian Kiev government and its troops.
There were a reported 14,000 civilian casualties in the region between 2014, when the revolt began and 2022.
With casualties now up perhaps tenfold, thanks to the direct Russian intervention, I can't conceive of a peaceful return to normal relations between Kiev and its Russian speaking minority.I would expect them to be expelled.

Isn't President Zelensky Russian speaking?

[NutLoose]

As a lot of the male populace is being rounded up and forced into the battle, one would imagine the support for Russia in those areas is waning, there has also been cases of rape and looting of Russian speakers too.

And let's clear up the other incorrect facts you are spouting... NO THERE WAS NOT 14,000 CIVILIANS KILLED... 10 thousand of the figure were Ukrainian service personnel and Russian backed Militants.

UN FIGURES

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights unveiled the data on Donbas war casualties from 14 April 2014 to 30 June 2021.

“The total number of casualties related to the conflict in Ukraine is 42,500-44,500 people,” the Office said in response to an information inquiry from Radio Liberty.

The casualties are categorised as follows:

• 13,200–13,400 people killed (at least 3,901 civilians, about 4,200 Ukrainian servicepersons, and about 5,800 Russian-backed militants)
• 29,600–33,600 people wounded (7,000–9,000 civilians, 9,800–10,800 members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and 12,800–13,800 occupiers)

In general, over the years of the war, civilians have accounted for 25-26% of the killed and wounded.

The UN also notes that this ratio has changed significantly over the years: from 33-34% in 2014 to 4-5% in 2019-2021.

As a reminder, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights reported 42,000-44,000 casualties in Donbas for the period from 14 April 2014 to 10 February 2020.

[Petit-Lion]

Aviation content

Originally Posted by uxb99

I feel sorry for Neville Chamberlain. He tried for peace however misguided. Somebody had to. Especially after living through the First World War.
How could you condemn millions to their deaths without even trying?

Édouard Daladier had a similar moment on his return from Munich. His plane circled above Le Bourget, in fear from the crowd that he thought hostile because of his cowardice. To his surprise, the crowd actually waved the plane and cheered the Hero of Peace. He was then heard mumbling, "Ah les cons! S'ils savaient!"

[Wokkafans]

Can't cure stupid.

Twitter

[Sue Vêtements]

Originally Posted by Wokkafans

Can't cure stupid

It's that one about six weeks old now? I seem to remember seeing it ages ago

[Wokkafans]

Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements

It's that one about six weeks old now? I seem to remember seeing it ages ago

New clip - though there was, as you said, something similar a while back.

[ROC man]

Latest assement from the Austrians

You Tube

[Obba]

Originally Posted by ROC man

Latest assement from the Austrians https://youtu.be/dEbLuAPobao

Humm, if he's right, then Ukraine is not looking good, as in the eastern areas being what Ukraine needs for fuel and food.
And the (according to the link), Ukraine is at 50% and Russia is seemingly adept at 'reverse' trajectory targeting...!

Well, lets all hope that the HIMARS can start hitting key targets and the West can continue its weapon/ammo/logistics support...

[etudiant]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

As a lot of the male populace is being rounded up and forced into the battle, one would imagine the support for Russia in those areas is waning, there has also been cases of rape and looting of Russian speakers too.

And let's clear up the other incorrect facts you are spouting... NO THERE WAS NOT 14,000 CIVILIANS KILLED... 10 thousand of the figure were Ukrainian service personnel and Russian backed Militants.

UN FIGURES

Thanks for the clarification of the UN data, so only 4000 clear cut civilians, the other 10,000 split 60/40 between rebels and Ukraine army people. Still sounds like a civil war to me.

[etudiant]

Originally Posted by Recc

It is beyond dispute that regular Russian forces were fighting in Eastern Ukraine by summer 2014. There is a vast literature on the subject, and I don't think that anyone serious (and sincere) would claim differently. Here are a few example. You may also recall that the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade rather famously shot down a Malaysian airliner around this time.


https://web.archive.org/web/20150508...aine_FINAL.pdf
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...led-in-ukraine
https://video.vice.com/en_us/video/s...8008e821c71e52

No argument of a substantial Russian involvement, Crimea makes that obvious, but still see this as a senseless civil war within Ukraine, as the casualties show..
This was, precipitated by a post Maidan leadership that was 'led down a primrose path' as John Mearsheimer so eloquently put it.

[rattman]

Interesting vid (turn on captions)

You Tube