Is Ukraine about to have a war?
I don't know....
This clip posted on the Schiller Institute YT platform.
From what he says, he has 'street creds' and if all true, is a very brave pilot.
In his statements, I can see some truths in his assessment. However, I wonder if his thinking is based on 'old times'. As in todays economic sanctions that are now far more integrated with computers/stock markets etc.
Are his views on artillery quantity amounts that the Russians have (we know this to be true), but can maybe be 'faired up' with the latest GPS missiles that are now in Ukrainian hands,,
Ukraine Has Lost the War: But Thermonuclear War Still Threatens - YouTube
This clip posted on the Schiller Institute YT platform.
From what he says, he has 'street creds' and if all true, is a very brave pilot.
In his statements, I can see some truths in his assessment. However, I wonder if his thinking is based on 'old times'. As in todays economic sanctions that are now far more integrated with computers/stock markets etc.
Are his views on artillery quantity amounts that the Russians have (we know this to be true), but can maybe be 'faired up' with the latest GPS missiles that are now in Ukrainian hands,,
Ukraine Has Lost the War: But Thermonuclear War Still Threatens - YouTube
Regarding statements of this helicopter pilot: First of all the Ruble is not freely traded currency and it is manipulated by Russian Central Bank, partly for PR purposes. Also the Russian economy is struggling heavily. If you want to have real insight into suffering of Russian industries google professor Natalya Zubarevich (I understand Russian very well and I've listened to various lectures from her in original but hopefully you can find something with English subtitles) but she listed heavy consequences almost on any area, it is very similar to how western built airplanes will be gradually grounded and cannibalised which is unavoidable fate of Russian civil aviation.
Good example of her prediction regarding Russian economy is here (try automated subtitles):
There is a great effort by European countries to get rid of dependance on Russian fossil fuels (e.g. my country went from 100% to 35% dependency on Russian gas since the beginning of war). We can and must strangulate Russian fuel export, it is a necessary step.
When we watch how many ammunition storage points went ablaze since only few HIMARS units came to Ukraine we should understand why now nervous Russia will try to end the war at this very moment and why we will see more such videos with attempts to call Ukraine to submission.
- 1991-1993 Georgian "civil" war round 1
- 1992-1993 Abkhazia
- 1992-1997 Tajikistan (ostensible "civil" war) Georgia,
- 1992 East Prigordiny
- 1992 Transnistria
- 1994-1996 Chechnya, round 1
- 1999 Dagestan
- 1999-2000 Chechnya, round 2
- 2000-2009 Chechnya insurgency.
- 2007-2015 Ingushetia
- 2009-2017 North Caucusus insurgency
- 2008 Georgian war round 2
Sheikthecamel:
Short sighted but arguably true. However, Europe and the rest of the world is a far worse loser if Russia is not stopped, a hostage to Putin's control of the world food supply and with a billion starving refugees pounding at their borders. Lose small temporarily economically, or lose big in the long view. Putin's Russia will go the way of the dinosaurs, I hope it takes less time.
Regardless of the outcomes of the war (FWIW I agree with him, but for different reasons) his statement that Europe is the biggest loser is undisputable:
On a purely practical level, the economic cost is ruinous: increased energy costs, cost of accelerated pivot to alternative energy, opportunity cost of the pivot (eg - automotive industry), increase of defense expenditure, cost burden of refugees, integration of Ukraine in EU and funding its re-building, etc...
We're talking a decade(s) of increased expenditure. With the average European squeezed as it is, I wonder where all that extra money - that wasn't needed 12months ago - is going to come from?
On a purely practical level, the economic cost is ruinous: increased energy costs, cost of accelerated pivot to alternative energy, opportunity cost of the pivot (eg - automotive industry), increase of defense expenditure, cost burden of refugees, integration of Ukraine in EU and funding its re-building, etc...
We're talking a decade(s) of increased expenditure. With the average European squeezed as it is, I wonder where all that extra money - that wasn't needed 12months ago - is going to come from?
Regardless of the outcomes of the war (FWIW I agree with him, but for different reasons) his statement that Europe is the biggest loser is undisputable:
On a purely practical level, the economic cost is ruinous: increased energy costs, cost of accelerated pivot to alternative energy, opportunity cost of the pivot (eg - automotive industry), increase of defense expenditure, cost burden of refugees, integration of Ukraine in EU and funding its re-building, etc...
On a purely practical level, the economic cost is ruinous: increased energy costs, cost of accelerated pivot to alternative energy, opportunity cost of the pivot (eg - automotive industry), increase of defense expenditure, cost burden of refugees, integration of Ukraine in EU and funding its re-building, etc...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,703
Received 2,706 Likes
on
1,147 Posts
Well they certainly got their monies worth out of that old girl.
..
..
Last edited by NutLoose; 3rd Jul 2022 at 15:57.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,703
Received 2,706 Likes
on
1,147 Posts
Sheikthecamel:
Short sighted but arguably true. However, Europe and the rest of the world is a far worse loser if Russia is not stopped, a hostage to Putin's control of the world food supply and with a billion starving refugees pounding at their borders. Lose small temporarily economically, or lose big in the long view. Putin's Russia will go the way of the dinosaurs, I hope it takes less time.
Short sighted but arguably true. However, Europe and the rest of the world is a far worse loser if Russia is not stopped, a hostage to Putin's control of the world food supply and with a billion starving refugees pounding at their borders. Lose small temporarily economically, or lose big in the long view. Putin's Russia will go the way of the dinosaurs, I hope it takes less time.
Agreed, Russia had started to weaponise fuel supplies long before any of this started, it was happening last year. And the invasion was never going to change anything for the better, even if the west had stood by, fuels and grain supplies would still have been disrupted and would go through the roof.
This was even recognized in entertainment, there was a Red Army Chorus skit where the punch line was 'We'll turn off the gas'.
The policy implied long term relationships and hence long term contracts, but in recent years, things had gotten so routine that Russian gas was mostly bought on short term contracts, because that was cheaper.
That paved the way for the current supply squeeze, only limited deliveries have been contracted . Afaik, the gas pipelines through the Ukraine are still functioning, delivering Russian gas to western Europe, despite the conflict.
I don't know....
This clip posted on the Schiller Institute YT platform.
From what he says, he has 'street creds' and if all true, is a very brave pilot.
In his statements, I can see some truths in his assessment. However, I wonder if his thinking is based on 'old times'. As in todays economic sanctions that are now far more integrated with computers/stock markets etc.
Are his views on artillery quantity amounts that the Russians have (we know this to be true), but can maybe be 'faired up' with the latest GPS missiles that are now in Ukrainian hands
This clip posted on the Schiller Institute YT platform.
From what he says, he has 'street creds' and if all true, is a very brave pilot.
In his statements, I can see some truths in his assessment. However, I wonder if his thinking is based on 'old times'. As in todays economic sanctions that are now far more integrated with computers/stock markets etc.
Are his views on artillery quantity amounts that the Russians have (we know this to be true), but can maybe be 'faired up' with the latest GPS missiles that are now in Ukrainian hands
Not sure if that wasn't a speech prepared by someone else; his delivery seemed a little stilted.
Don't disagree with the assessment of the artillery war. That clip is three weeks old. How well has it aged? Russia was still contesting Snake Island as that video was released.
Did you notice that the retired aviator made no mention of the air war aspect of the war in Ukraine? That struck me as odd.
The assertion that UK is now dominating the EU is an odd one, and may reflect only reading English language sourced news, or something else. The assertion that the EU is being overshadowed by NATO is, for the moment, true enough.
That LNG supplies to Europe are a more expensive option is correct. And I think it's temporary, but that depends on how long the war in Ukraine lasts. Once a peace agreement is ironed out ("when" is an open question) there is still little incentive to go back to business as usual in West Germany/rest of Europe, until the weather turns cold. Then, in the fall, that incentive will arise.
There are people producing gas in the Eastern Med who may be licking their chops as regards the market this fall ...
Guest
Warning. Military Aviation content.
It's images like this that enforce in my mind that Russia has lost. Ukrainian aircraft still conducting sorties over Russian forces. Well done Ukraine but Russia, how did you get to this state?
It's images like this that enforce in my mind that Russia has lost. Ukrainian aircraft still conducting sorties over Russian forces. Well done Ukraine but Russia, how did you get to this state?
Regardless of the outcomes of the war (FWIW I agree with him, but for different reasons) his statement that Europe is the biggest loser is undisputable:
On a purely practical level, the economic cost is ruinous: increased energy costs, cost of accelerated pivot to alternative energy, opportunity cost of the pivot (eg - automotive industry), increase of defense expenditure, cost burden of refugees, integration of Ukraine in EU and funding its re-building, etc...
We're talking a decade(s) of increased expenditure. With the average European squeezed as it is, I wonder where all that extra money - that wasn't needed 12months ago - is going to come from?
On a purely practical level, the economic cost is ruinous: increased energy costs, cost of accelerated pivot to alternative energy, opportunity cost of the pivot (eg - automotive industry), increase of defense expenditure, cost burden of refugees, integration of Ukraine in EU and funding its re-building, etc...
We're talking a decade(s) of increased expenditure. With the average European squeezed as it is, I wonder where all that extra money - that wasn't needed 12months ago - is going to come from?
Russia is paying a higher price. They lose all the western investors and the comfortable long term trade scheme energy exports for western goods. Western Europe will need to adopt fast but it will work finally and create jobs in the process. Next winter will be tough and prices will go through the roof. No surprise this is an active war going on. Time to end illusions and talk business. Military aviation will grow.
I am not so optimistic. There is no consistent clear declaration of what "winning the war" looks like among the EU nations and the US. I think the EU politicians and Germany's in particular are going to buckle next winter when Putin threatens to cut off the gas supplies. They will force a deal on Ukraine that is favorable to Putin which of course will only embolden Putin but that will be a problem for the next slate of EU rulers....
Warning. Military Aviation content.
It's images like this that enforce in my mind that Russia has lost. Ukrainian aircraft still conducting sorties over Russian forces. Well done Ukraine but Russia, how did you get to this state?
Ukraine War Report🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Ukrainian Air Force Su-27 fighters escorting Su-24 front line bombers. https://t.co/dHj8kFvHfI" / Twitter
It's images like this that enforce in my mind that Russia has lost. Ukrainian aircraft still conducting sorties over Russian forces. Well done Ukraine but Russia, how did you get to this state?
Ukraine War Report🇺🇦 on Twitter: "Ukrainian Air Force Su-27 fighters escorting Su-24 front line bombers. https://t.co/dHj8kFvHfI" / Twitter
I am not so optimistic. There is no consistent clear declaration of what "winning the war" looks like among the EU nations and the US. I think the EU politicians and Germany's in particular are going to buckle next winter when Putin threatens to cut off the gas supplies. They will force a deal on Ukraine that is favorable to Putin which of course will only embolden Putin but that will be a problem for the next slate of EU rulers....
Just to be sure let's blame the germans whatever it might be.
I am not "blaming" Germany I am simply pointing out the political reality. If the voters of EU countries don't want to make sacrifices to keep the pressure on Putin, and there is no doubt keeping the pressure on Putin this winter is going to significantly hurt EU economies; then the politicians will follow their lead. Germany is in a particularly bad spot because their highly industrialized export oriented economy is heavily dependent on Russian gas.
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Beyond the Blue Horizon
Age: 63
Posts: 1,250
Received 142 Likes
on
87 Posts
I am not "blaming" Germany I am simply pointing out the political reality. If the voters of EU countries don't want to make sacrifices to keep the pressure on Putin, and there is no doubt keeping the pressure on Putin this winter is going to significantly hurt EU economies; then the politicians will follow their lead. Germany is in a particularly bad spot because their highly industrialized export oriented economy is heavily dependent on Russian gas.
I think Germany has the assets to get through this, it maybe a problem for some other EU countries and indeed those who recently left, but somehow misplaced their oil refining capacity in the interim ! This will have an effect though out the West, but do not expect the UK to sail through unaffected.
Cheer
Mr Mac
We simply cannot allow Putin to bully us anymore. What will be next? It's time for us to make whatever sacrifices it takes to stop him once and for all, or forever regret it!
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,703
Received 2,706 Likes
on
1,147 Posts
Snake Island evacuation images from the Russian Helis
