Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Aircrew Forums > Military Aviation
Reload this Page >

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Military Aviation A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 9th Dec 2021, 21:53
  #321 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Everett, WA
Age: 66
Posts: 3,552
Originally Posted by Less Hair View Post
It will be costly.
The US might retaliate by cutting Russia from the international Swift financial system.
Right, because the Biden administration has demonstrated itself to be so effective at discouraging international bad actors...
tdracer is offline  
Old 9th Dec 2021, 22:04
  #322 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 12,519
The US might retaliate by cutting Russia from the international Swift financial system.
From the Telegraph…

…..”The ‘nuclear option’ of expelling Russia from the SWIFT system of international payments has gradually lost deterrent value. The Kremlin has been developing ways to work around it.

The Carnegie Moscow Center says Russia has introduced a national version of SWIFT known as SPFS. The country could probably conduct transactions directly with China through the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System. It has introduced a National Payment Card System (MIR) in case Visa and Mastercard are suspended, and these can be linked with Chinese UnionPay and Japanese JCB.

The loss of SWIFT would be a major financial shock for Russia but it would also be painful for European companies, and untenable in light of Europe’s gas dependency.

“Disconnecting SWIFT is absolute fantasy. Are Germans going to carry money in suitcases to Russia to pay for their gas?” said Vladimir Dzhabarov from the Russian Federal Council. ….”…..
ORAC is online now  
Old 10th Dec 2021, 00:49
  #323 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 1,222
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
You are presuming that they Ukrainian don’t have a scorched earth plan of destroying the pipeline and pumping stations across the country as they retreat. Why leave it to fall into Russian hands?
That would leave Europe entirely dependent on Nordstream 2 gas. Not very threatening to Vladimir, imho.
etudiant is offline  
Old 10th Dec 2021, 05:55
  #324 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 366
Norwegian gas is available in Europe as well.
Less Hair is offline  
Old 10th Dec 2021, 06:24
  #325 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 896
Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
That would leave Europe entirely dependent on Nordstream 2 gas. Not very threatening to Vladimir, imho.
No it does not. there are gas lines from north sea, africa and middle east as well.

https://www.bruegel.org/publications...l-gas-imports/
Beamr is offline  
Old 10th Dec 2021, 06:31
  #326 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Japan
Posts: 1,006
Clem Hafford: "Is there gonna be a fight, Wyatt?"
Wyatt Earp: "I think there must be".
jolihokistix is offline  
Old 10th Dec 2021, 08:06
  #327 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 4,287
There are also pipelines from Algeria etc - Russian gas is cheap but the Dutch could open the throttles at Groningen and a number of N Sea fields can also go into max production (that may damage the eventual productivity but short term can work wonders (I think it was used in the 1980's coal miners strike). The UK Govt has tested a system ordering oil companies to do this. Its Germany that is really dependent on Russian Gas.



Asturias56 is offline  
Old 10th Dec 2021, 14:47
  #328 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: cowtown
Posts: 581
https://www.oaklandinstitute.org/blo...l-land-ukraine

Who thinks they own the farms they bought ?
fitliker is offline  
Old 10th Dec 2021, 20:18
  #329 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 12,519
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/w...rope-wn55kztpb

We’ll protect you from Russia, Joe Biden tells eastern Europe

President Biden has stressed America’s “sacred commitment” to defending its Nato allies in eastern Europe, promising them military support as Russia masses troops on the borders.

Biden spoke to the leaders of nine Nato states — Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia — on Thursday to “underscore the United States’ commitment to transatlantic security and our sacred commitment to Nato’s Article 5”, the White House said. Article 5 of Nato’s founding treaty says that an attack on any one ally is an attack on all of them.

It came as President Putin accused Ukraine of committing “genocide” in the east of the country, where Moscow-backed separatists have carved out two breakaway territories. He did not provide any evidence……

Tensions were ratcheted further as Moscow said Kiev had committed a “provocation” by sending a warship towards the Kerch Strait, which divides Russia and its annexed peninsula of Crimea. The Ukrainian ship allegedly failed to react to a Russian request to change course; it later retreated. Dmitry Peskov,

Putin’s spokesman, said the incident on Thursday showed the “potential harm and danger that could flow from such provocative actions”. Kiev said the ship was operating in its territorial waters.…..


ORAC is online now  
Old 10th Dec 2021, 20:28
  #330 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 12,519
https://www.ft.com/content/d86f8961-...e-8251ab139204

Russia demands Nato retract pledge to admit Ukraine and Georgia

Russia has demanded Nato withdraw a 2008 pledge to admit Ukraine and Georgia as part of future security talks that Washington hopes will deter Moscow from invading its southern neighbour.

The Russian foreign ministry on Friday published a list of proposed agreements that offer the most detailed insight so far into the “red lines” Vladimir Putin wants to form the basis of a new European security order.….

Nato’s then-secretary general said in 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia would one day become members but the alliance has never specified a timeline and has not entered either country into its formal process for membership.


The Russian foreign ministry said it wanted legal guarantees that the pledge was no longer in force, as well as other agreements that Nato would not deploy weaponry to countries bordering Russia, hold military drills beyond a certain distance from Russia, and setting maximum approach distances for ships in the Baltic and Black seas.

It also called on the US to readopt the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty, a Cold War agreement banning land-based missiles with a range of 500km-5,500km from which the Trump administration withdrew in 2019.

Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, on Friday dismissed Putin’s demands as unsurprising. “It’s the same list of demands that the Russians have been advocating for and voicing for several months, if not years, and that is their prerogative,” she said.

Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, said Biden “clearly and directly . . . made no such commitments or concessions” regarding excluding Ukraine from Nato in his discussion earlier this week with Putin. “He stands by the proposition that countries should be able to freely choose who they associate with,” Sullivan said.

Senior US officials have also said Biden has made “very clear” that one nation cannot force another nation to change its border. “[One] nation cannot tell another to change its politics, and nations can’t tell others who they can work with,” a senior administration official told reporters on Thursday, after Biden spoke to Zelensky and, separately, nine Nato allies along its eastern flank…..
ORAC is online now  
Old 11th Dec 2021, 04:26
  #331 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2019
Location: Outer ring of HEL
Posts: 896
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
.

The Russian foreign ministry said it wanted legal guarantees that the pledge was no longer in force, as well as other agreements that Nato would not deploy weaponry to countries bordering Russia, hold military drills beyond a certain distance from Russia, and setting maximum approach distances for ships in the Baltic and Black seas.

.
Entirely unacceptable AND undoable.
Firstly: Norway, Poland and Baltic countres are NATO countries and bordering Russia. Should they de-arm and leave NATO?
Secondly: Putin will NOT state his terms on Finland nor whom Finns train with, is visited by or ally with. That is not going to happen,

Soviet union collapsed and there is no more russian dominance as it was within USSR. Putin has to accept it.
But, as a dictator with overly boosted ego tangling to power, he cant. He is a remain of the cold war living in an illusion that HE will return the soviet era influence of Russia.
Bearing in mind that in 2005 already he called the collapse of SU as "the biggest geopolitical catastrophy of the century" tells what this guy is thinking.

Putin does not understand any soft talk. In his mind that is weakness. He only understands and appreciiates tough approach, so he must be placed in between a rock and a hard place.


Beamr is offline  
Old 11th Dec 2021, 08:12
  #332 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: PLanet Earth
Posts: 1,047
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Biden spoke to the leaders of nine Nato states — Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia — on Thursday to “underscore the United States’ commitment to transatlantic security and our sacred commitment to Nato’s Article 5”, the White House said. Article 5 of Nato’s founding treaty says that an attack on any one ally is an attack on all of them.
Good!
A red line is a red line is a red line.
Integrity of NATO territory is a RED LINE. Full stop.
This has to be set in stone and shouldn't be watered down in any way.
henra is offline  
Old 11th Dec 2021, 08:15
  #333 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: PLanet Earth
Posts: 1,047
Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
The Russian foreign ministry said it wanted legal guarantees that the pledge was no longer in force, as well as other agreements that Nato would not deploy weaponry to countries bordering Russia, hold military drills beyond a certain distance from Russia, and setting maximum approach distances for ships in the Baltic and Black seas.
Either imprecisely formulated or ridiculous.
The Baltic states are NATO members. Obviously NATO weaponry can and will be stationed/deployed there.
henra is offline  
Old 11th Dec 2021, 08:31
  #334 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 366
Maybe it's time for the West to move ahead unilateral as well? And then negotiate to move back to the status quo ante? If this is the way they want to go. How about some intermediate range missiles?
Less Hair is offline  
Old 11th Dec 2021, 09:16
  #335 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: London
Posts: 1,292
I guess we could give the Russians a legal guarantee regarding Ukraine's NATO membership along the same lines as the legal agreement they gave Ukraine back in the 90s to guarantee its territorial integrity etc in return for it giving up its nukes...

All this bolleaux regarding "NATO encirclement" is ridiculous. If I were Russian I'd be much more concerned about what was happening on beyond their eastern border.
dead_pan is offline  
Old 11th Dec 2021, 10:19
  #336 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Eastern Cape, South Africa
Posts: 114
Would Putin's boys really want to fight a war in early winter? Its only going to get colder between now and March next year...
Then its all mud...so maybe May next year would be a better time to roll forward?
Or is the unpleasantness of 1941 -45 lost on the Russian military?
ATSA1 is offline  
Old 11th Dec 2021, 10:25
  #337 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 12,519
Only 6% of the Russian land border is shred with a NATO member state.
ORAC is online now  
Old 11th Dec 2021, 10:29
  #338 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Peripatetic
Posts: 12,519
Would Putin's boys really want to fight a war in early winter? Its only going to get colder between now and March next year...
It’s the only time they can - the soft swampy ground in the southern Ukraine around the Donbas region only gets hard enough for their tanks to cross when it freezes in early January.

ORAC is online now  
Old 12th Dec 2021, 07:47
  #339 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Ferrara
Posts: 4,287
lets hope for a warm snap just as they get there then



Asturias56 is offline  
Old 12th Dec 2021, 08:49
  #340 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: PLanet Earth
Posts: 1,047
Originally Posted by dead_pan View Post
All this bolleaux regarding "NATO encirclement" is ridiculous. If I were Russian I'd be much more concerned about what was happening on beyond their eastern border.
That is surely why Russia developped the 9M729 Version of Iskander-K and left INF. I have a hard time imagining they did that as a means of last resort to fend of these pesky Polish/German/Czech/Dutch invasion troops trying to overrun Russia....
henra is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Do Not Sell My Personal Information -

Copyright © 2021 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.