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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

Old 25th Nov 2021, 18:52
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Germany the way it is today has been created exactly the way the US wanted. Including the limited military capabilities.
It will be more expensive for the US to let Europe care about itself. That's a history lesson the US learned the hard way.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 19:42
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Germany the way it is today has been created exactly the way the US wanted. Including the limited military capabilities.
It will be more expensive for the US to let Europe care about itself. That's a history lesson the US learned the hard way.
That sounds like an entitlement attitude.

Germany has been making its own decisions for a long time. Contrast the Bundeswehr when Soviet tanks were expected to roll down the Fulda gap against its current state, a little over 1/3 the size. That wasn’t a decision made in Washington DC. Europe has become too comfortable expecting the US to defend it. Time for that to end. NATO isn’t facing the Warsaw Pact, it’s likely opponent is one it should be able to contain. It chooses not to, preferring to rely on its bodyguard.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 19:59
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Well there is always room for improvement but I don't agree they would not contribute enough as a lot of infrastructure and support just is not labeled defence budget. They even went to Afghanistan after 9-11 no questions asked.
Plus it's clearly in the US interest to have a strong presence in Europe and to remain. The entire problem got blown out of proportion under President Trump for some reason.
I truly miss the strategic view and experts the US had for international politics and diplomacy. Now it's just America first and not much else beyond political correctness and domestic fights. You might have already noticed that China and Russia and others are already trying to exploit this perceived weakness? Much of the problem is caused west of the Atlantic.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 20:28
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Well there is always room for improvement but I don't agree they would not contribute enough as a lot of infrastructure and support just is not labeled defence budget. They even went to Afghanistan after 9-11 no questions asked.
Plus it's clearly in the US interest to have a strong presence in Europe and to remain. The entire problem got blown out of proportion under President Trump for some reason.
I truly miss the strategic view and experts the US had for international politics and diplomacy. Now it's just America first and not much else beyond political correctness and domestic fights. You might have already noticed that China and Russia and others are already trying to exploit this perceived weakness? Much of the problem is caused west of the Atlantic.
Yes, the US does have an interest in Europe, wish Europe would could clearly determine what it’s own interests are.

The problem wasn’t blown out of proportion by Trump, he elevated it to the public realm. Obama made no bones about it, Euro members of NATO were lacking in their financial commitments. Problem was it was hushed conversations behind closed doors and didn’t yield much. Trump in his inelegant style certainly did start a conversation.

Europe doesn’t spend its share and is overly reliant, yet it’s the US fault, not buying it. I got the same entitlement attitude when I made my adult daughter start paying for her own mobile phone and car insurance.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 20:29
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Originally Posted by West Coast
The European members of NATO (or better yet, a Euro army) should be able to contain Russia, why seemingly can’t they?
Because they are not supposed to have thousands of nuclear warheds and hundreds of Sea- launched ICBMs in the first place.
Conventionally, Russia can't overrun Europe. Nuclearly it can.
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 21:06
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Originally Posted by henra
Because they are not supposed to have thousands of nuclear warheds and hundreds of Sea- launched ICBMs in the first place.
Conventionally, Russia can't overrun Europe. Nuclearly it can.

You’re ok with the status quo?
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Old 25th Nov 2021, 22:18
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Main export is gas and they’ve been throttling back supplies during the summer so that the reserves in most European countries are below 50% with winter approaching - the strategy being that their customers need gas and won’t be able to impose sanctions….
Not that clear cut imho.
Russia was fed up with getting shafted by the Ukraine transit fees for gas, so they built Nord Stream 2, which bypasses intermediate jurisdictions, with the support of Schroeder, the then German Chancellor, who wanted to bring Russia into the tent rather than keeping it outside. That was not well received in Washington, so obstacles emerged. Still, the pipeline is now complete and available, with flows subject to political approval.
Obviously Russia is trying to put pressure on the EU customers to open the valves, the pipeline was not cheap and the bills need to be paid.
Whether this upcoming cold spell is enough to force the issue remains uncertain, but the reality is that Europe will continue to need energy and Russia has the supply, so a solution will eventually be found.

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Old 26th Nov 2021, 08:07
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Originally Posted by West Coast
You’re ok with the status quo?
No, not really. But at the same time I don't see an easy solution apart from reducing the dependency on Russian Gas so that at least there is a chance for painful sanctions.
Militarily Europe has surely significant potential for improvement also conventionally but that won't change anything really wrt Russia bullying the Baltics or Ukraine.
If Europe would really be required to be able to defend itself this would require massvie Nuclear up- arming since that is the area where there is a huuuuge Gap to Russia.
Conventionally, Europe is generally mostly on Eye level with Russia - in some areas superior (Air Force) in some areas inferior (Army, Navy) but overall an invasion by Russia deep into foreign territory (which typically requires massive advantage) would likely end in tears and Russia having to resort to Nukes.
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Old 26th Nov 2021, 08:52
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How many years do we reckon Vlad has left in power? Maybe if we can string things along like this for a decade or so Russia may not be such a problem, maybe even a willing partner.
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Old 26th Nov 2021, 13:35
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Some reports of another Coup in the making . Winter is coming and winter Sieges can be brutal .
When will the tourists return ?
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Old 26th Nov 2021, 14:30
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Provocations continue in Belarus…

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Old 26th Nov 2021, 15:54
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Apparently the Coup is booked for next Wednesday..

Ukraine’s president on Friday claimed to have uncovered a coup plot organised by Russians that was due to have been put into action as early as next week.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy made the claims during a press conference in which he insisted Kyiv was “entirely prepared for an escalation” as Russian troops mass near the border of his country.

Intelligence services had obtained an audio recording of unnamed Russians and Ukrainians discussing how to raise $1 billion from Rinat Akhmetov, a Ukrainian oligarch, to fund a coup that would topple the president.

“This is a special operation ... to lead a war against the state of Ukraine,” Mr Zelenskiy said, without pointing the finger directly at the Kremlin.

He said the coup was planned for next Wednesday, but did not provide further details.
MSN
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Old 26th Nov 2021, 23:15
  #253 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
How many years do we reckon Vlad has left in power? Maybe if we can string things along like this for a decade or so Russia may not be such a problem, maybe even a willing partner.
Afaik, Putin is 69, so probably still good for the rest of this decade. He is probably as good as we can expect, a skillful politician and a smart player in international affairs.
My sense is that it will be difficult to find a more willing partner. Yeltsin was very accommodating, all it got Russia was NATO moving east, contrary to what Russia thought had been agreed.
Meanwhile, the ongoing sanctions simply force Russia to embrace China, despite the visceral Russian concern about again getting dominated by modern day Tatars.
How this helps the US and Europe to better counterbalance China is unclear.
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Old 27th Nov 2021, 11:39
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Originally Posted by etudiant
My sense is that it will be difficult to find a more willing partner. Yeltsin was very accommodating, all it got Russia was NATO moving east, contrary to what Russia thought had been agreed.
I share these doubts. In Russian elctions regularly the second and third ranked parties/candidates are even (way) more hard-core and crazy than Vlad'. I'm afraid all he is doing is playing to the audience. Our problem is not only this one Chap. It is a rather a whole Nation which has not fully swallowed the loss/decline of former Importance.
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Old 27th Nov 2021, 11:44
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Meanwhile, the ongoing sanctions simply force Russia to embrace China, despite the visceral Russian concern about again getting dominated by modern day Tatars.
How this helps the US and Europe to better counterbalance China is unclear.
I would not over- estimate this 'friendship'. It is quite clear IMHO against whome Russia developped new Intermediate Range Nuclear Balllistic Missiles in the first place - and which made them give up on INF Treaty which China was never part of.
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Old 28th Nov 2021, 07:36
  #256 (permalink)  
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...nvoy-50rb52jgt

Britain risking war by stepping too close to Russian border, says envoy

Rususia’s ambassador to the UK has warned there is “a pretty serious risk” of war between the countries as tensions spiral over Ukraine.

Andrei Kelin’s warning comes after a big build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s eastern border and fears that a full-blown invasion is imminent. Allied nations have responded by issuing declarations of solidarity with the Kiev government. Britain began to reposition its own formations last week in an attempt to deter the Kremlin.

In response Kelin said in an interview with Times Radio: “There is a risk of war on our border. It’s pretty serious. There is a possibility that there is a spark and an incident can occur. Nato is stepping up its presence along the borders of the Russian federation. We have lots of manoeuvring now in the Baltic Sea. We have strategic aviation, with nuclear warheads, flying 20km close to the borders.”

The ambassador also revealed that the decision by the defence secretary, Ben Wallace, last week to move an armoured brigade back to Germany in response to increased Russian aggression sparked anger in Moscow.

accused Britain of “stepping closer and closer” to Russia’s borders. The senior diplomat also warned that further reinforcement of Nato forces in Ukraine would be interpreted as “a threat to invade Russia”.
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Old 28th Nov 2021, 08:05
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The senior diplomat also warned that further reinforcement of Nato forces in Ukraine would be interpreted as “a threat to invade Russia”.
and their actions on the border of Ukraine are not?
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Old 28th Nov 2021, 10:43
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Originally Posted by ORAC
The senior diplomat also warned that further reinforcement of Nato forces in Ukraine would be interpreted as “a threat to invade Russia”.
???
Did I miss something?!
Which NATO forces are currently in Ukraine?
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Old 30th Nov 2021, 15:44
  #259 (permalink)  
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Interesting article.

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Old 1st Dec 2021, 13:58
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No war yet , just peaceful use of artillery towards civilian area by a Ukraine journalist . Would that be considered a provocation, an aggression or a criminal act ?
I do hope he is standing right next to the gun when the peaceful response is issued .
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