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Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

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Is Eastern Ukraine about to have a war ?

Old 12th Apr 2021, 12:55
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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Afaik, the problem started when the Ukraine government prohibited the use of Russian in Ukrainian schools, a clear signal that the large Russian speaking minority was unwanted.
Perhaps the responsible people should visit Canada, which successfully defused an analogous threat from their francophone Quebec based minority.
The problem started when the Ukraine agreed to destroy its nuclear weapon stockpile after assurances fom the UK and the USA that both countries would commit to protecting their borders in case of armed conflict, if the Ukraine had retained their nuclear capability or we had stood by our promises, we wouldn't be having this conversation as Russia would not have dared to invade.

https://www.dispropaganda.com/single...n-exchange-for
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 15:58
  #82 (permalink)  
 
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So many other agreements have broken , it could easily be a chicken and egg thread .
The good news is Ukraine just blinked . They are backtracking on previous statements made by the stand up comic and calling for dialogues.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 15:58
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Global Hawk sniffing around the east of Ukraine as we speak.

IG
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 16:05
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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Lieutenant General Ben Hodges - I've heard him speak - very very impressive. Not your gung-ho kill everything type but measured, very thoughtful and crystal clear

Definitely a man to listen to
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 17:40
  #85 (permalink)  
 
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I looked into the Crimean Tatar issue and yeah the evidence is damning...

From the Human Rights Watch: "crimea-persecution-crimean-tatars-intensifies"

Since 2015 a grand total of 26 Tatars have been convicted and jailed. They are all part of a group, Hizb-ut-Tahrir, that has been designated as a terrorist group in Russia, Germany and several others.

Some of the detainees do not deny some level of affiliation with Hizb-ut-Tahrir, but all deny any involvement in a terrorist organization. Under Russian law, participation in a terrorist group (article 205.5, part 2 of the Russian Criminal Code) is punishable by a prison sentence of 5 to 10 years.
Even by the HRW's own words these people have broken the law.

Not really mass persecution, is it?
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 17:48
  #86 (permalink)  
 
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It is great to see that Ukraine cares so much for the oppressed people in Crimea that they even deny them water... If they really wanted to win the minds and hearts of the people, they should surely give them the water.

As for Russia attacking Ukraine, it seems the world thinks that the Russian government and military are stupid or insane. Russian citizens will not stand for such a thing and the government will lose all popularity very rapidly.

According to historical data, Hitler was also impressive during his public speeches. Look where it got the world.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 18:18
  #87 (permalink)  
 
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How long do you think the Turkish/Qatar funded Syrian mercenaries will stay in country if they manage to provoke a war ?
They have been trying for almost five years to get the party started . Maybe Someone will fund another private enterprise to exterminate the agent provocateurs before the instability spreads to the Capital.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 18:33
  #88 (permalink)  
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Aegis8,

I realise you are supposed to try and plant false information - but you’ve got to do better than that. From the HRW site.....

https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/04/02/...crimean-tatars

Crimean Tatars, a Muslim ethnic minority indigenous to the peninsula, have been targets of persecution since Russia began occupying the region in 2014. The recent arrests were the largest number in a single week for the last few years.....

Since Russia seized and began occupying the peninsula in 2014, Crimean Tatars have been
disproportionately affected by law enforcement action. From January 2017 through August 2018, 90 out of a documented 102 property searches or raids in Crimea affected Crimean Tatars, according to the United Nations.

In 2016, a Russian Supreme Court order
forced the Mejlis, the elected self-governing body of the Crimean Tatars, to disband. Crimean Tatars have also been victims of enforced disappearances and arbitrary arrests and prosecution.

Refat Chubarov, chairman of the now-disbanded Mejlis, said of the Russians: “With such mass arrests, they send a very clear signal to Crimean Tatars: if you don’t like it, leave.”
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 19:06
  #89 (permalink)  
 
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Wrt to the question posed in the title of this thread... Doesn't Putin often send loads of military to the Ukraine border? Isn't he just having his usual flex?
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 19:14
  #90 (permalink)  
 
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I realise you are supposed to try and plant false information
There you have it wrong. I post my own opinions and where I post info, I try to make sure it is true.

I missed a more recent article, my mistake, which does not really paint a worse picture, with the new number of arrests. it would bring the total of arrested Tatars up to what 50 - 60 in 5 years. Or did I miss yet another article/number somewhere? The law is clear: if you associate or identify as being part of that group, you can and will be investigated and arrested. Which part is wrong there?

As for the rest of the info there, it once again reads like the usual Russia bad - US good, China bad -US good. Hype the situation and control the story that gets to the western MSM consumers. Good example is Navalny, stated by the west to be the main opposition figure. He is not, the Communist party is and he had less than 2% support country wide.

So I do not believe that there is such a huge problem there with the Tatars, there is a problem with a certain segment and the rest of the Tatars and Crimeans are living without problems.
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 19:49
  #91 (permalink)  
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@Aegis8 : am just a reader here, find the discussion fascinating as it has the point of view of both sides and in a civilized manner. Please continue even if you are in the minority here. One question I have however is when you state :
Good example is Navalny, stated by the west to be the main opposition figure. He is not, the Communist party is and he had less than 2% support country wide.
Do you have data to back this up.? what we see here in western media , especially BBC and CNN , is that Navalny has huge support, especially among young people and can organize large demonstrations in many different Russian cities etc.., is this all staged ?
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Old 12th Apr 2021, 22:54
  #92 (permalink)  
 
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Never underestimate ethnic Ukrainians hatred for the Russians is all I can add.

Lived there for a number of years (Kiev and Odessa) and I've seen perfectly normal boys and girls turn into rabid maniacs almost frothing at the mouth when the subject turned to Russia, the transition would genuinely shock you. And this was just before the recent troubles.

Although I suspect many Russians can understand quite a bit of Ukrainian (I speak Russian and can understand without too much difficulty, and if I can as a non-native speaker of Russian, they can) it always amuses me when Russian TV always subtitles them, and my Russian colleagues swear they understand zilch.

Russia is successful much of the time I believe because they always play the long game, something seemingly absent in the West.

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Old 13th Apr 2021, 02:15
  #93 (permalink)  
 
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I am led to believe that many ukrainians speak russian because it's easier than ukrainian and is or was widely taught in schools, so it's very common for people to have knowledge of it, regardless of your ethnicity/country of origin/religion/etc.

Regularly speaking russian does not necessarily mean a person wants to identify as a russian.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 06:11
  #94 (permalink)  
 
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ATC Watcher I will get back to you with factual data.
In the mean time, I will say this: Moscow has a population of several million: google says 12,593,000. His protests gather several thousand only, even if you would say 50000* were present, it is a very small percentage, around 0.4%.

*Disclaimer exact figures may vary.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 07:11
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I believe the current President of the Ukraine is a native Russian speaker - and as for "threatening pogroms" his family are also jewish....................
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 07:25
  #96 (permalink)  
 
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ATC Watcher Here is the data:
From google:
Currently represented in the State Duma
  • United Russia (340)
  • Communist Party (42)
  • Liberal Democratic Party (40)
  • A Just Russia (23)
  • Civic Platform (1)
No Navalny there.

The last regional elections were in 2020 and the opposition parties made some gains against the main party in Russia.

Of note is " Opposition leader Alexei Navalny called on opposition voters to use "Smart Voting" by voting for candidates most likely to win against United Russia." Which worked, as several seats were won by these independents. It is now difficult to asses his actual support percentage, based on the 2020 election results, 3 independents became governors. As far as I can tell, he was not running for anything in that election, I may be wrong, I did not see his name anywhere as a candidate.

What will be telling are the upcoming elections.

Numbers at protests:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Russian_protests

Try and figure out the actual numbers present after reading the wiki!

In Krasnodar, 5,000–7,000 Krasnodar out of a population: 932629 (wikipedia), so less than 1% This is in my region, that is why I mention it.

I will also mention that his labeling a World War 2 veteran, a traitor, has cost him support. No matter who they support politically, people respect the veterans here.


As to western MSM, it is hyped and inflated, but this is not a new tactic.
I hope I have managed to answer your question.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 08:39
  #97 (permalink)  
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I hope I have managed to answer your question.
Thanks for trying at least . You mentioned initially less than 2% support , that would be visible in votes, not necessarily in people taking up to the streets , especially when the demonstrations has been banned by the authorities and police repression seems to be not that soft if one can see the television images .. But as you said : What will be telling are the upcoming elections. So let's wait for those and see what his real percentage will be .
In any case thanks again for your input. and insight of the views in Russia. Much appreciated.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 09:23
  #98 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher View Post
Thanks for trying at least . You mentioned initially less than 2% support , that would be visible in votes, not necessarily in people taking up to the streets , especially when the demonstrations has been banned by the authorities and police repression seems to be not that soft if one can see the television images .. But as you said : What will be telling are the upcoming elections. So let's wait for those and see what his real percentage will be .
In any case thanks again for your input. and insight of the views in Russia. Much appreciated.
We'll have to wait a bit on that, he can't run in the election, as he is serving time for his fraud conviction. So the only telling fact would be support for the candidates that he/his group have said to support.
I have seen worse police repression in western countries, to be honest. There is a simple process to follow when you want to hold mass events. By law, authorities cannot deny you, without providing alternatives. There are prohibited locations, mentioned in this process. So you will be denied here, of course. Unfortunately, Navalny has almost never followed this procedure and thus always runs foul of the authorities. Makes for good TV! Same with the last round of protests.

Anyway thread drifting here. Feel free to PM me if you have other questions.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 10:24
  #99 (permalink)  
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The Duma? A Potemkin Parliament of yes men.

Any real opposition is arrested and convicted of an offence in order to prevent them running or disbarred from election by other means.
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Old 13th Apr 2021, 10:27
  #100 (permalink)  
 
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Aegis8: you really can't take any indication of ones popularity based on protest figures nor compare the protest figures directly with total population.

A: 23,2% of Russian population are under 19 years old. Also it is highly unlikely that minors would represent any significant volume in the protest, and it also means that this 23% must be deducted from the total population when looking at voters. eg Moscow with 12,5M inhabitants leaves you with 9,5M adults.

B: the median age of protesters were 31( SOURCE ). As Russias median age in total is 39 (and much higher when deducting the minors unlikely to take part in any protests), leaves you with heavy bias amongst young people in russia favoring Navalnyi.

C: 18-44 year olds represent 34% of total population (eg moscow then 4,25M). Navalnyis support is at its highest in this age group. So if you take that 50000, correct it by, say 10% to leave older and younger out, leaves you with 45000 people. Which in essence means that roughly 10% of the age group participated. I consider that pretty significant as this is the biggest age group in Russia, mobilizing 10% of the people on the streets.

D: there is never, ever a full 100% participation in rallies/protests/whatever. It is always the minority that participates. Even if we would be talking about 10% of the supporters pariticipating (which would be very high), there would be other 450000 silent supporters. That would make a very high percentage in votes amongst adults.

E: Demographics is one thing, but the leader(s) of Russia are tangling to power and somehow people not aligning with Putin seem to have accidents and/or end in jail. Not only the poisoning of Navalnyi, but remembering Litvinenko, the Skripalis, especially Viktor Yushchenko (suddenly got poisoned while running for Ukrainian presidency against Putins favorite), Politkovskaya, Vladimir Kara-Murza, Boris Nemtsov... all have met their fate in strange circumstances. This means that one would not participate in these types of rallies very easily, still enhancing the fact that the support for Navalnyi is greater than in your calculations.

F: If Navalnyi wouldn't be of any concern to Putin, why on earth would there be poisonings with a very rare poison by FSB staff? Fear of losing power has been the biggest driver for Putin during his entire leadership. Need to win election: go to Chechnya. Got someone you don't like in charge of ex-soviet countries: go to Georgia. Figures going down again: take Crimea. Someone challenging you: go Novichok (or any other military grade poison of your choice). Business world getting too much power? charge them with fraud/tax evasion/something else and send them to jail. Running out of presidential seasons? no problem, change positions with your muppet (Medvedev) for one season and run a constitutional change to start counting your seasons from zero. The more government denies it all, the more one can be assured that Navalnyi is concidered a threat by the authorities.

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