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Budget post Covid

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Budget post Covid

Old 5th May 2020, 07:32
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I also read (google) that 4.6 million people die each year from air pollution.
yet we still dig coal and oil
1.3 million die on the roads but we don't ban cars/ reduce speed limit etc.

Still - we are here now - and staring down a totally changed economy

And this thread is what defence will look like and be able to pay for in this new world - perhaps start new thread about the whys of how we got here.

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Old 5th May 2020, 08:11
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All fair and valid points. But I ask one question. If this outbreak was to continue growing exponentially around the globe with no lockdown, why are we now seeing that Stockholm’s infection rate seems to have peaked? It’s not behaving anything like how the models we used previously behaved as they should. The models are potentially wrong. How has it burned out much quicker than expected, with the Swedish government now saying they will have Herd immunity in a few weeks?

There are very good reasons why R0 was so high to begin with. The fact remains, if vulnerable categories were to lock down further, I.e. no leaving the house unless to an area isolated of others, no shopping and real effort was made to supply
them (by using those as suppliers who have antibodies for example) and the rest continue and get back to work, then the same outcome desired can be obtained, low overall death rate, with the added bonus many many more will be developing immunity.

In respect to who has had it, we have vulnerable family members so it was essential we knew, you can get tests done privately. We have had 3 other cases in our relatively small village (family of skiers who went to Zermatt).

The UK government have been absolutely useless in the main. They have lurched from one populist crisis response to the other. The initial shutdown, Ventilators, PPE, testing. It’s all been handled as a piecemeal approach. I get things are moving quickly but the biggest mistake they made was by allowing a scaremongering media to continue unchecked (and they do have the legal means and political means to control this) we have lost control of a sense of reality.

All I do know is I’ll do as I’m told and trust the government for a little longer at least.
History has shown blind obedience to the government is not a good thing. Please don’t wait too much longer.

Last edited by VinRouge; 5th May 2020 at 09:22.
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Old 5th May 2020, 09:24
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All this bleating about why "the Government" didn't supply/stock Ventilators/PPE etc etc is a total red-herring put out for political reasons .

The Chief Executive of my local NHS trust was paid £177,500 last year .. I wonder what for ?? IMHO it is HER job to ensure HER staff have the right equipment at the right time. When we need supplies eg toilet roll... we ensure we buy it.. we don't expect the local town council to suddenly turn up with a truck ... we take resposnsibility for our company.. that is the job of management... same goes for care homes .. why were/are they charging £2000 a month to house a person, and then demanding that "someone" (read taxpayer) gives them the supplies they should have obtained using those fees.
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Old 5th May 2020, 09:45
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Originally Posted by OmegaV6
All this bleating about why "the Government" didn't supply/stock Ventilators/PPE etc etc is a total red-herring put out for political reasons .

The Chief Executive of my local NHS trust was paid £177,500 last year .. I wonder what for ?? IMHO it is HER job to ensure HER staff have the right equipment at the right time. When we need supplies eg toilet roll... we ensure we buy it.. we don't expect the local town council to suddenly turn up with a truck ... we take resposnsibility for our company.. that is the job of management... same goes for care homes .. why were/are they charging £2000 a month to house a person, and then demanding that "someone" (read taxpayer) gives them the supplies they should have obtained using those fees.

For those hard of reading... this is about the defence budget... create your own thread if you want to whinge about the government. NHS, Care home or conspiracy theories..please

Last edited by typerated; 5th May 2020 at 10:09.
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Old 5th May 2020, 10:57
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Originally Posted by typerated
For those hard of reading... this is about the defence budget... create your own thread if you want to whinge about the government. NHS, Care home or conspiracy theories..please
There's a thread for all things Covid over on Jet Blast. FWIW the above arguments have been done to death.

Re the defence budget, weirdly I am sort of in agreement with Racedo. Strange times....
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Old 5th May 2020, 15:50
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So what in the Defense budget for a middle power is

- Must do:
- Should do
- Nice to do
- Fluff
Is the best strategy to keep a bit of everything so you can quickly rebuild, or cut whole capabilities so you can preserve what are considered core capabilities at existing or neat existing strengths ?
Thoughts ?
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Old 5th May 2020, 16:39
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I think all military budgets are in for deep cuts - the amount spent so far, the amount still to be spent and then the sums to guard against the next time will be enormous

Imagine a UK Govt . Minister having to get up and explain why he isn't going to put more $$$ into the NHS going forward? Sure some taxes will go up - but the search for cuts will also be wide ranging.

What capabilities do you keep?
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Old 5th May 2020, 16:52
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A different viewpoint

What about this...

What if the government were to realise that the world threats haven’t changed in the last five months? What if they actually concluded that what we are living through shows us those threats are potentially increasing?

Obviously we need to pay the piper for the Covid costs but is it at all possible the military will be one place where savings are minimal?

I have no more idea than any of you but it is a possibility.

Instead of living in a world of doom and gloom why not just wait and see what happens once we have a little certainty back in our lives.

Sorry if this doesn’t fit with anyone’s agenda of misery.

BV
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Old 5th May 2020, 18:15
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Normally I agree with you Bob, but I can't see any area that could be cut to the extent of defence....
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Old 5th May 2020, 18:47
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Downsizer

I’m not saying for one second I’m right. I’m just saying it’s a possibility. A remote one perhaps, but still a possibility.

BV
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Old 5th May 2020, 20:13
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More chance of the toothfairy coming in the middle of the night and converting your Hawks into F-22's!
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Old 5th May 2020, 20:56
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Originally Posted by VinRouge
Your article completely overlooks the fact that they are discovering that hordes more have had this than originally thought. CFR is not a useful indicator, unless you have had widespread community testing, which they have not in New York.

Snipped for brevity
.
Good post.
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Old 5th May 2020, 20:59
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
There's a thread for all things Covid over on Jet Blast. FWIW the above arguments have been done to death.

Re the defence budget, weirdly I am sort of in agreement with Racedo. Strange times....
Welcome to the real world or the dark side or somewhere in between.
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Old 5th May 2020, 21:01
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
I think all military budgets are in for deep cuts - the amount spent so far, the amount still to be spent and then the sums to guard against the next time will be enormous

Imagine a UK Govt . Minister having to get up and explain why he isn't going to put more $$$ into the NHS going forward? Sure some taxes will go up - but the search for cuts will also be wide ranging.

What capabilities do you keep?
NHS budget is bloated, has been for decades and will remain so.

Govt has got the balls to do a root and branch review which is why you have some hospitals that are world beater and others where the paint is peeling and no money in decades.
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Old 6th May 2020, 17:04
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"What if the government were to realise that the world threats haven’t changed in the last five months? What if they actually concluded that what we are living through shows us those threats are potentially increasing?"

it doesn't matter Bob - they've spent the last 2 months in the UK telling people their only hope of staying alive is more spending on the Health Service, that these people are heroes, that they are Saints. The Govt is pouring cash into to "save the economy" - you have kids making posters and videos about the health system

They can't turn round in 6 months and say " we've changes our minds - we need the money for some more F-35's" - actually they can - but they'd be hanging from lamp posts in Westminster before the night was out........
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Old 6th May 2020, 21:50
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Originally Posted by racedo
NHS budget is bloated, has been for decades and will remain so.

Govt has got the balls to do a root and branch review which is why you have some hospitals that are world beater and others where the paint is peeling and no money in decades.
Where is the 'Like' button?
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Old 7th May 2020, 06:29
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
but they'd be hanging from lamp posts in Westminster before the night was out........
Not sure if it was deliberate A56, but that rather enticing vision would have had a few older Tories and the Scottish legal establishment choking on their breakfast. A little episode involving Nicholas Fairbairn MP, QC and his bit of secretarial fluff in 1981.
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Old 7th May 2020, 11:52
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I'm sorry I don't get the reference Tuc........ he was a "character" IIRC but a bit hard to pigeonhole.
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Old 7th May 2020, 13:00
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Soo... isn't everyone's defense budget gonna be hit by COVID?

China won't sell as much to the west.
Russia is heavily dependent upon the oil price.

Playing devils advocate - perhaps there will be less sabre rattling, and hence a safer world...
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Old 7th May 2020, 16:53
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Originally Posted by bigsmelly
Soo... isn't everyone's defense budget gonna be hit by COVID?

China won't sell as much to the west.
Russia is heavily dependent upon the oil price.

Playing devils advocate - perhaps there will be less sabre rattling, and hence a safer world...
I'd venture that, as is often the case when national economies get all wobbly & promises of "Jam tomorrow" ring hollow, there will likely be MORE sabre rattling, not less.

Anyhoo, it's all an illusion. The money isn't real, the majority of 'debt' is internal and interest rates are at historic lows. Print more of the stuff and move on. There are plenty bigger issues looming on the near & medium horizons for this Ponzi scheme to occupy overly much of the national hand - wringing resource. As the 'yout' of today might opine; "Meh"...
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