Budget post Covid
Countdownbegins,
"If Russia took the Falklands, If China took New Zealand, if Russia moved into Northern Canada?"
Are you David Icke?
"If Russia took the Falklands, If China took New Zealand, if Russia moved into Northern Canada?"
Are you David Icke?
Hmm it does make one wonder why we spend all this moolah on our defence (from ourselves) when such damage can be wrought by a strand of RNA.
For me, I'd take a hard look at all that armour and vehicles parked up at all those ex-RAF bases, the Trident replacement, the carriers (we just had a 10+ year capability gap with no real issues), all front line fighters (why so many given we're only probed by the occasional Bear), and all of our overseas commitments
For me, I'd take a hard look at all that armour and vehicles parked up at all those ex-RAF bases, the Trident replacement, the carriers (we just had a 10+ year capability gap with no real issues), all front line fighters (why so many given we're only probed by the occasional Bear), and all of our overseas commitments
Err Russia can barely mount an offensive in its own backyard, let alone half-way around the globe. This bigging up of the threat Russia allegedly poses is the realm of US defence contractors desperately trying to justify some new attack helicopter etc they are hoping to secure the contract for.
"If Russia took the Falklands" 
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Not Russia, but China........
https://theasiadialogue.com/2015/10/...the-falklands/
.......Beijing’s tradition policy is to explicitly support Buenos Aires’ claims to the Falklands. In December 2011 then Chinese President Hu Jintao’s special envoy Jiang Shusheng, and chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, said “solidarity with Argentina on the Malvinas issue is an invariable position of China’s foreign policy”. China is keen to emphasize the alleged parallels, in her view, between the Falklands and Taiwan. Both Beijing and Buenos Aires believe the wishes of the population involved to be no bar to their territorial claims. The PRC may also be interested in the natural resources, oil and fisheries, found around the islands. In addition, China may also see the Falklands through the prism of her growing interest in the Antarctic.......
https://theasiadialogue.com/2015/10/...the-falklands/
.......Beijing’s tradition policy is to explicitly support Buenos Aires’ claims to the Falklands. In December 2011 then Chinese President Hu Jintao’s special envoy Jiang Shusheng, and chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, said “solidarity with Argentina on the Malvinas issue is an invariable position of China’s foreign policy”. China is keen to emphasize the alleged parallels, in her view, between the Falklands and Taiwan. Both Beijing and Buenos Aires believe the wishes of the population involved to be no bar to their territorial claims. The PRC may also be interested in the natural resources, oil and fisheries, found around the islands. In addition, China may also see the Falklands through the prism of her growing interest in the Antarctic.......
Err Russia can barely mount an offensive in its own backyard, let alone half-way around the globe. This bigging up of the threat Russia allegedly poses is the realm of US defence contractors desperately trying to justify some new attack helicopter etc they are hoping to secure the contract for.
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I think the scale of the problem may well lead to drastic measures, of the sort not seen since the great wars. I can definitely see some form of asset haircut - every with net assets over 300k including housing stock, the old pension fund, takes a haircut of between 1 and 20%, the highest percentage for those who have accumulated the most wealth. We may get grannies downsizing from all those massive Home Counties 5 bed properties they have been living in on their own. What ever percentage, you are given it as a loan with rate set to CPI, term the same as the percentage value. This will halve state debt as well as addressing intergenerational inequity which is raising its head more significantly at present than any til I can remember.
if you think this is mad, Cyprus did just this in 2013. It was rather cutely named a “Bail In”. I think the level of pension spending will take a hit, the wrinklies have had years of triple lock with the state pension twice that of Jobseekers on a weekly basis. A lot of miffed unemployed people will see the disparity.
As for the NHS, I think like us previously, they need to find out where it all goes. 107 billion and unbelievable decisions, including holding no reusable PPE stock for a pandemic? Would the military get away with arguing we couldn’t go to war as we have run out of gas masks or filters? Don’t think so.
don’t forget, once this nonsense is over, we have the lunacy of Brexit, the sunlit uplands with herds of non-fruit picking unicorns to look forwards to.
dont like it? nNo.11 gave us a warning when this all kicked off that the bill will require paying. Unfortunately, despite being dead opposed to a lockdown, as the virus didnt look too different to flu (which it has proven to be for the under 60s without conditions) we weren’t really given an option to say no were we? I’m mighty threaders with it all at the moment, not least due to the damage this will do our economy and our children’s futures.
I think the over 67s can wave goodbye to the free TV licence too! 😂
if you think this is mad, Cyprus did just this in 2013. It was rather cutely named a “Bail In”. I think the level of pension spending will take a hit, the wrinklies have had years of triple lock with the state pension twice that of Jobseekers on a weekly basis. A lot of miffed unemployed people will see the disparity.
As for the NHS, I think like us previously, they need to find out where it all goes. 107 billion and unbelievable decisions, including holding no reusable PPE stock for a pandemic? Would the military get away with arguing we couldn’t go to war as we have run out of gas masks or filters? Don’t think so.
don’t forget, once this nonsense is over, we have the lunacy of Brexit, the sunlit uplands with herds of non-fruit picking unicorns to look forwards to.
dont like it? nNo.11 gave us a warning when this all kicked off that the bill will require paying. Unfortunately, despite being dead opposed to a lockdown, as the virus didnt look too different to flu (which it has proven to be for the under 60s without conditions) we weren’t really given an option to say no were we? I’m mighty threaders with it all at the moment, not least due to the damage this will do our economy and our children’s futures.
I think the over 67s can wave goodbye to the free TV licence too! 😂
Last edited by VinRouge; 5th May 2020 at 04:40.
I think the scale of the problem may well lead to drastic measures, of the sort not seen since the great wars. I can definitely see some form of asset haircut - every with net assets over 300k including housing stock, the old pension fund, takes a haircut of between 1 and 20%, the highest percentage for those who have accumulated the most wealth. We may get grannies downsizing from all those massive Home Counties 5 bed properties they have been living in on their own. What ever percentage, you are given it as a loan with rate set to CPI, term the same as the percentage value. This will halve state debt as well as addressing intergenerational inequity which is raising its head more significantly at present than any til I can remember.
if you think this is mad, Cyprus did just this in 2013. It was rather cutely named a “Bail In”. I think the level of pension spending will take a hit, the wrinklies have had years of triple lock with the state pension twice that of Jobseekers on a weekly basis. A lot of miffed unemployed people will see the disparity.
As for the NHS, I think like us previously, they need to find out where it all goes. 107 billion and unbelievable decisions, including holding no reusable PPE stock for a pandemic? Would the military get away with arguing we couldn’t go to war as we have run out of gas masks or filters? Don’t think so.
don’t forget, once this nonsense is over, we have the lunacy of Brexit to look forwards to, the sunlit uplands with herds of non-fruit picking unicorns to look forwards to.
dont like it? nNo.11 gave us a warning when this all kicked off that the bill will require paying. Unfortunately, despite being dead opposed to a lockdown, as the virus didnt look too different to flu (which it has proven to be for the under 60s without conditions) we weren’t really given an option to say no were we? I’m mighty threaders with it all at the moment, not least due to the damage this will do our economy and our children’s futures.
I think the over 67s can wave goodbye to the free TV licence too! 😂
if you think this is mad, Cyprus did just this in 2013. It was rather cutely named a “Bail In”. I think the level of pension spending will take a hit, the wrinklies have had years of triple lock with the state pension twice that of Jobseekers on a weekly basis. A lot of miffed unemployed people will see the disparity.
As for the NHS, I think like us previously, they need to find out where it all goes. 107 billion and unbelievable decisions, including holding no reusable PPE stock for a pandemic? Would the military get away with arguing we couldn’t go to war as we have run out of gas masks or filters? Don’t think so.
don’t forget, once this nonsense is over, we have the lunacy of Brexit to look forwards to, the sunlit uplands with herds of non-fruit picking unicorns to look forwards to.
dont like it? nNo.11 gave us a warning when this all kicked off that the bill will require paying. Unfortunately, despite being dead opposed to a lockdown, as the virus didnt look too different to flu (which it has proven to be for the under 60s without conditions) we weren’t really given an option to say no were we? I’m mighty threaders with it all at the moment, not least due to the damage this will do our economy and our children’s futures.
I think the over 67s can wave goodbye to the free TV licence too! 😂
The lets spend billions on the basis that someone may invade us and we need it now mantra has zero chance when faced with an economy collpasing.
Great have lots of toys when 6 million are unemployed.
Great have lots of toys when 6 million are unemployed.
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https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...4pc-death-rate
my second bet is that once this passes, the weekly fatality stats will be well below average for at least 6 months. This has just wiped out the unfortunately Ill and aged. And the Ill + aged.
ACW562,
All true, but those deaths were spread over a much longer time period, not one of them killed 29,000 in 8 weeks. Not one of them overwhelmed the NHS with so many hospital cases with one in three of those admitted dying.
All true, but those deaths were spread over a much longer time period, not one of them killed 29,000 in 8 weeks. Not one of them overwhelmed the NHS with so many hospital cases with one in three of those admitted dying.
latest research from Bonn is showing that case fatality is well below the previously expected figure 0.37% My bet that by the time this is over, there will be 0.2% CFR, no different than seasonal flu.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...4pc-death-rate
my second bet is that once this passes, the weekly fatality stats will be well below average for at least 6 months. This has just wiped out the unfortunately Ill and aged. And the Ill + aged.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...4pc-death-rate
my second bet is that once this passes, the weekly fatality stats will be well below average for at least 6 months. This has just wiped out the unfortunately Ill and aged. And the Ill + aged.
.https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html
For what it's worth, medical professionals all over the world generally don't call for the world to be shut down over flu. In one city with a decent spread of COVID before going in to lockdown (NYC) more than 19,000 are already dead and the hospitals just about ran out of capacity. I politely suggest you all go speak to any medic there (several of my family are) and ask them how closely COVID resembles flu. I'd wager they're more qualified to talk about it than anyone on an aviation forum.
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Next, we didn't have lots and of people living well past their seventies with modern medicine managing multiple chronic conditions. This is a clear-out courtesy of mother nature as unpalatable as it may be. 92% of fatalities are over 70. 95% have single or multiple chronic conditions. You have more chance of dying of an RTA if you are under 10 and healthy this year and there have been only 1400 fatalities in the UK under 60. That includes under 60s with chronic conditions. The solution is very simple. Back to work for those that can, complete lock down (an army of volunteers are available for your shopping) for those who are elderly or vulnerable. Over-70s are 20 times more likely to require hospitalization than the under 60s too.
We also have never had a globalized pandemic of a coronavirus before, meaning this is novel to the human immune system, everyone is getting it. 0.3% mortality rate though is in a similar range to Flu.
All in though, this whole situation is out of proportion and by all accounts,of control by Western Governments. It's such a shame that only one nation, Sweden, has been able to have an adult to adult conversation, without the rabid screechings of mass media driven paranoia taking control.
Last edited by VinRouge; 5th May 2020 at 01:17.
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I'm getting quite bored of going around and finding myself having to point out the infection rate of COVID 19 in the general population, amongst other things. If you want some actual science check out the following:
.https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html
For what it's worth, medical professionals all over the world generally don't call for the world to be shut down over flu. In one city with a decent spread of COVID before going in to lockdown (NYC) more than 19,000 are already dead and the hospitals just about ran out of capacity. I politely suggest you all go speak to any medic there (several of my family are) and ask them how closely COVID resembles flu. I'd wager they're more qualified to talk about it than anyone on an aviation forum.
.https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html
For what it's worth, medical professionals all over the world generally don't call for the world to be shut down over flu. In one city with a decent spread of COVID before going in to lockdown (NYC) more than 19,000 are already dead and the hospitals just about ran out of capacity. I politely suggest you all go speak to any medic there (several of my family are) and ask them how closely COVID resembles flu. I'd wager they're more qualified to talk about it than anyone on an aviation forum.
The issue is not lethality for the bulk of the populace. How many deaths in the UK from the under 70s with no chronic conditions in the UK? If you don't know, look it up. Yet we are still allowing over 70s to do supermarket visits and exercise in inner city areas. Why are we not locking down over 70s and vulnerable people in totality (and of course given support) and allowing the rest to carry on? Utter lunacy. Calling retired NHS workers back to frontline roles, whilst you know that 20% of over 70s catching this will be hospitalized? One of the most ill-thought out plans in this whole sorry experience.
The UK under 60s total fatality figure is 1400 at present, but includes those with known chronic conditions. However sad this figure is, is this fatality rate among the economically productive worth 2.4 billion a day in lost economic production, destruction of livelihoods, lives and the abject poverty this shutdown is going to cause? 10 billion a week in Redundancy prevention? The 1 in 5 small businesses that are never going to open their doors again? How many HS2 programmes could we have funded by the end of the month with all of that? Hip ops, cancer research funding, transplants, decent kit for the Army, Navy and Air Force? How many university grants for people from disadvantaged backgrounds? Utter, utter lunacy.
By the way, do you know how many working aged men committed suicide as a result of the post-2008 austerity programme and how many people died due to mental health issues and poverty? The "cure" is going to slaughter (albeit silently) multiples of the number that will be taken by Covid.
This is a pandemic. Its horrible. But they happen with surprising frequency. We are cratering our economy with impacts to not only current working age people but their children and possibly grandchildren. There will be far more deaths as a result of what we are doing to the country than what this virus is doing to its victims. The net gain is what exactly, mindful a targeted quarantine would provide much of the same effect?
Unfortunately, listening to a select quorum of professionals, such as Ferguson of Imperial has gotten us into this mess. His model lacking any international peer review is a joke among epidemiologists globally. We are too focused on saving every life, rather than minimizing the impact in the medium long term. When did we last have an economist presenting the impact to the public purse from this flight of folly on the 5 P.M. brief?
Also, want to explain where the exponential growth in cases and deaths is in Stockholm, with a higher population density than London have gone? Something is not right with the model, because guess what? they used the Flu transmission model for this virus. NNo one knows how it spreads, yet we chose the most destructive path out of fear. And why? Well, Corona is comparable to Ebola, according to many national newspapers as of two days ago. The wanton fear mongering that caused mass panic in not only this country, but also globally, lead to governments to soil their pants and jump onboard the biggest collective self frag of this century. The Case Fatality rate has fallen consistently from the initial prediction and is now shown across a number of case studies, including the 1/10 of what Ferguson used in his deeply flawed and internationally picked apart model. Do we see this widely televised? Laura Kunesberg fess up that we got it all a but wrong on aunt Beeb? Nope, they dont do that do they? There is going to be a whole load of egg on peoples faces when the wash up is done.
Global flu deaths on average are around 389,000 people per year. The upper range for a bad year is 660,000 Flu We aren't past the lower figure yet for the supposed doomsday virus, 5 months into the year, with the first cases occurring in late 2019. This isn't a global crisis of health, its a global crisis of leadership and communication.
In terms of qualification, I've had it, family have had it, no worse for 2 of 4 than mild flu. Wife had 0 symptoms but had detectable viral load. I had it the worst and was laid up for 2 weeks with no sense of smell, excessive tiredness but was back in and signed up to fly 3 weeks after I showed first symptoms. I was almost disappointed. at the operational level, sure, its different. For the 99.7% of healthy people under the age of 70 not wanting to get the Scanning Electron Microscope or protein test out,symptomatically its pretty much flu. Im one of 20 at my work who has had it - therefore more like 200-300 who have actually had it.
Last edited by VinRouge; 5th May 2020 at 01:21.
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Your article completely overlooks the fact that they are discovering that hordes more have had this than originally thought. CFR is not a useful indicator, unless you have had widespread community testing, which they have not in New York.
The issue is not lethality for the bulk of the populace. How many deaths in the UK from the under 70s with no chronic conditions in the UK? If you don't know, look it up. Yet we are still allowing over 70s to do supermarket visits and exercise in inner city areas. Why are we not locking down over 70s and vulnerable people in totality (and of course given support) and allowing the rest to carry on? Utter lunacy. Calling retired NHS workers back to frontline roles, whilst you know that 20% of over 70s catching this will be hospitalized? One of the most ill-thought out plans in this whole sorry experience.
The UK under 60s total fatality figure is 1400 at present, but includes those with known chronic conditions. However sad this figure is, is this fatality rate among the economically productive worth 2.4 billion a day in lost economic production, destruction of livelihoods, lives and the abject poverty this shutdown is going to cause? 10 billion a week in Redundancy prevention? The 1 in 5 small businesses that are never going to open their doors again? How many HS2 programmes could we have funded by the end of the month with all of that? Hip ops, cancer research funding, transplants, decent kit for the Army, Navy and Air Force? How many university grants for people from disadvantaged backgrounds? Utter, utter lunacy.
By the way, do you know how many working aged men committed suicide as a result of the post-2008 austerity programme and how many people died due to mental health issues and poverty? The "cure" is going to slaughter (albeit silently) multiples of the number that will be taken by Covid.
This is a pandemic. Its horrible. But they happen with surprising frequency. We are cratering our economy with impacts to not only current working age people but their children and possibly grandchildren. There will be far more deaths as a result of what we are doing to the country than what this virus is doing to its victims. The net gain is what exactly, mindful a targeted quarantine would provide much of the same effect?
Unfortunately, listening to a select quorum of professionals, such as Ferguson of Imperial has gotten us into this mess. His model lacking any international peer review is a joke among epidemiologists globally. We are too focused on saving every life, rather than minimizing the impact in the medium long term. When did we last have an economist presenting the impact to the public purse from this flight of folly on the 5 P.M. brief?
Also, want to explain where the exponential growth in cases and deaths is in Stockholm, with a higher population density than London have gone? Something is not right with the model, because guess what? they used the Flu transmission model for this virus. NNo one knows how it spreads, yet we chose the most destructive path out of fear. And why? Well, Corona is comparable to Ebola, according to many national newspapers as of two days ago. The wanton fear mongering that caused mass panic in not only this country, but also globally, lead to governments to soil their pants and jump onboard the biggest collective self frag of this century. The Case Fatality rate has fallen consistently from the initial prediction and is now shown across a number of case studies, including the 1/10 of what Ferguson used in his deeply flawed and internationally picked apart model. Do we see this widely televised? Laura Kunesberg fess up that we got it all a but wrong on aunt Beeb? Nope, they dont do that do they? There is going to be a whole load of egg on peoples faces when the wash up is done.
Global flu deaths on average are around 389,000 people per year. The upper range for a bad year is 660,000 Flu We aren't past the lower figure yet for the supposed doomsday virus, 5 months into the year, with the first cases occurring in late 2019. This isn't a global crisis of health, its a global crisis of leadership and communication.
In terms of qualification, I've had it, family have had it, no worse for 2 of 4 than mild flu. Wife had 0 symptoms but had detectable viral load. I had it the worst and was laid up for 2 weeks with no sense of smell, excessive tiredness but was back in and signed up to work 3 weeks after I showed first symptoms. I was almost disappointed. at the operational level, sure, its different. For the 99.7% of healthy people under the age of 70 not wanting to get the Scanning Electron Microscope or protein test out, its pretty much flu.
The issue is not lethality for the bulk of the populace. How many deaths in the UK from the under 70s with no chronic conditions in the UK? If you don't know, look it up. Yet we are still allowing over 70s to do supermarket visits and exercise in inner city areas. Why are we not locking down over 70s and vulnerable people in totality (and of course given support) and allowing the rest to carry on? Utter lunacy. Calling retired NHS workers back to frontline roles, whilst you know that 20% of over 70s catching this will be hospitalized? One of the most ill-thought out plans in this whole sorry experience.
The UK under 60s total fatality figure is 1400 at present, but includes those with known chronic conditions. However sad this figure is, is this fatality rate among the economically productive worth 2.4 billion a day in lost economic production, destruction of livelihoods, lives and the abject poverty this shutdown is going to cause? 10 billion a week in Redundancy prevention? The 1 in 5 small businesses that are never going to open their doors again? How many HS2 programmes could we have funded by the end of the month with all of that? Hip ops, cancer research funding, transplants, decent kit for the Army, Navy and Air Force? How many university grants for people from disadvantaged backgrounds? Utter, utter lunacy.
By the way, do you know how many working aged men committed suicide as a result of the post-2008 austerity programme and how many people died due to mental health issues and poverty? The "cure" is going to slaughter (albeit silently) multiples of the number that will be taken by Covid.
This is a pandemic. Its horrible. But they happen with surprising frequency. We are cratering our economy with impacts to not only current working age people but their children and possibly grandchildren. There will be far more deaths as a result of what we are doing to the country than what this virus is doing to its victims. The net gain is what exactly, mindful a targeted quarantine would provide much of the same effect?
Unfortunately, listening to a select quorum of professionals, such as Ferguson of Imperial has gotten us into this mess. His model lacking any international peer review is a joke among epidemiologists globally. We are too focused on saving every life, rather than minimizing the impact in the medium long term. When did we last have an economist presenting the impact to the public purse from this flight of folly on the 5 P.M. brief?
Also, want to explain where the exponential growth in cases and deaths is in Stockholm, with a higher population density than London have gone? Something is not right with the model, because guess what? they used the Flu transmission model for this virus. NNo one knows how it spreads, yet we chose the most destructive path out of fear. And why? Well, Corona is comparable to Ebola, according to many national newspapers as of two days ago. The wanton fear mongering that caused mass panic in not only this country, but also globally, lead to governments to soil their pants and jump onboard the biggest collective self frag of this century. The Case Fatality rate has fallen consistently from the initial prediction and is now shown across a number of case studies, including the 1/10 of what Ferguson used in his deeply flawed and internationally picked apart model. Do we see this widely televised? Laura Kunesberg fess up that we got it all a but wrong on aunt Beeb? Nope, they dont do that do they? There is going to be a whole load of egg on peoples faces when the wash up is done.
Global flu deaths on average are around 389,000 people per year. The upper range for a bad year is 660,000 Flu We aren't past the lower figure yet for the supposed doomsday virus, 5 months into the year, with the first cases occurring in late 2019. This isn't a global crisis of health, its a global crisis of leadership and communication.
In terms of qualification, I've had it, family have had it, no worse for 2 of 4 than mild flu. Wife had 0 symptoms but had detectable viral load. I had it the worst and was laid up for 2 weeks with no sense of smell, excessive tiredness but was back in and signed up to work 3 weeks after I showed first symptoms. I was almost disappointed. at the operational level, sure, its different. For the 99.7% of healthy people under the age of 70 not wanting to get the Scanning Electron Microscope or protein test out, its pretty much flu.
You'll probably get a lot of flack for this post but there are many more people that agree with your post I think than care to admit. Our children and children's children might be picking up this mess in 10 to 20 years time. Now that's something worth doom mongering about.
VinRouge
I’m not going to dissect your entire post, mainly because I have no idea what the correct answer is.
However, there is one glaring contradiction that I can’t allow to pass unchallenged.
You mention that a normal flu season kills 3-600000 people but that Covid has ‘only’ killed ~260000 in five months. This willfully ignores the fact that this number comes after a global lockdown of unprecedented scale. This does not happen every flu season.
You seem to base your hypothesis on the fact that you have had Covid and it didn’t kill you so it can’t be that bad. I also guess that your personal stance on it is based, more than a little, on how it has affected your industry.
I don’t know anyone personally who has had a confirmed case yet (I know a few people who may have had it) so I have very little knowledge of the reality of the disease. All I do know is I’ll do as I’m told and trust the government for a little longer at least.
My more relaxed approach is clearly a result of how my livelihood has been relatively unaffected. I would almost certainly feel differently if I were in your shoes.
Please don’t take this post as me picking a fight but I just wanted to highlight a slight air of disengenuity in your maths.
BV
However, there is one glaring contradiction that I can’t allow to pass unchallenged.
You mention that a normal flu season kills 3-600000 people but that Covid has ‘only’ killed ~260000 in five months. This willfully ignores the fact that this number comes after a global lockdown of unprecedented scale. This does not happen every flu season.
You seem to base your hypothesis on the fact that you have had Covid and it didn’t kill you so it can’t be that bad. I also guess that your personal stance on it is based, more than a little, on how it has affected your industry.
I don’t know anyone personally who has had a confirmed case yet (I know a few people who may have had it) so I have very little knowledge of the reality of the disease. All I do know is I’ll do as I’m told and trust the government for a little longer at least.
My more relaxed approach is clearly a result of how my livelihood has been relatively unaffected. I would almost certainly feel differently if I were in your shoes.
Please don’t take this post as me picking a fight but I just wanted to highlight a slight air of disengenuity in your maths.
BV
I generally agree with BV on this one - you're damned if you do, damned if you don't. None of us are epidemiologists and I understand that world is like the world of aviation - ask 3 people and you'll get 4 opinions, including one that matches your particular world model.
I would absolutely say though that the vast majority of people calling for an end to lockdown are, as Vin rightly points out, at relatively low risk of themselves dying of COVID. That is kinda the point of government. To make tough calls that aren't in the interests of every individual. That's also arguably the stated reason why the government delayed entering lockdown - their argument at the time was they knew it was only sustainable for so long (for a myriad of factors). How you exit it is tricky and nuanced, but make no mistake - easing the lockdown will directly cause people to die. Not easing the lockdown will, as Vin points out, directly cause people to die. Neither of them are good outcomes, so which one is the best to do pretty much sits with which demographic you happen to be in.
To argue that lockdown wasn't necessary because COVID is only as bad as flu - see BV's point. It's a total fallacy. Mortality rate is only one part of the puzzle, infection rate is the other. If as many people have died with the lockdown as flu, then it's definitely a lot worse. Google the R0 for UK before and after lockdown, admittedly with limited testing, then make a simple spreadsheet leaving the R0 up around 2.5-3 and see how many people end up in ICU/dead. It isn't pretty.
It's an emotive subject. This thing is screwing people over left, right and centre, and I'm frankly glad I'm a) not in a risk category b) in a country that is supporting it's furloughed workers albeit in the short term and far from perfectly and c) has universal healthcare.
I would absolutely say though that the vast majority of people calling for an end to lockdown are, as Vin rightly points out, at relatively low risk of themselves dying of COVID. That is kinda the point of government. To make tough calls that aren't in the interests of every individual. That's also arguably the stated reason why the government delayed entering lockdown - their argument at the time was they knew it was only sustainable for so long (for a myriad of factors). How you exit it is tricky and nuanced, but make no mistake - easing the lockdown will directly cause people to die. Not easing the lockdown will, as Vin points out, directly cause people to die. Neither of them are good outcomes, so which one is the best to do pretty much sits with which demographic you happen to be in.
To argue that lockdown wasn't necessary because COVID is only as bad as flu - see BV's point. It's a total fallacy. Mortality rate is only one part of the puzzle, infection rate is the other. If as many people have died with the lockdown as flu, then it's definitely a lot worse. Google the R0 for UK before and after lockdown, admittedly with limited testing, then make a simple spreadsheet leaving the R0 up around 2.5-3 and see how many people end up in ICU/dead. It isn't pretty.
It's an emotive subject. This thing is screwing people over left, right and centre, and I'm frankly glad I'm a) not in a risk category b) in a country that is supporting it's furloughed workers albeit in the short term and far from perfectly and c) has universal healthcare.