China's expansionist strategy
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I am not a fan of China at all and share some feelings of those who wrote they felt uncomfortable while staying in that country. I was very interested to travel there to see various "wonders of the world", but would not like to live in the world where they dominate.
However, sad irony is that it were the US (and the EU to a certain extent, too) who were "feeding the monster" for decades letting it grow on steroids by placing their manufacturing in that part of the planet.
Speaking about "punishment" (for whatever reason), it is too late now, IMHO.
Military wise, even with conventional weaps the US have no chances because the Chinese would operate from the land. And its Navy is now quite comparable with what US can deploy there.
On the economic side, if Uncle Sam decides to overpress with sanctions, the Chinese may claim back trillions of bucks that the (US) government owes them, and it will destroy most of the international trade based on dollar. And if this debt is unilaterally nullified, the Chinese might start confiscating industries that belong to the US on their territory and this may really lead to military confrontation.
With all that said it looks like all sides should calm down and avoid too aggressive actions. The West is not able to put China on the knees, but can stop feeding it further on. China will likely accelerate efforts to take third-world markets (Asia, Africa, Latin America) but would it help them get the same level of profit is a question.
However, sad irony is that it were the US (and the EU to a certain extent, too) who were "feeding the monster" for decades letting it grow on steroids by placing their manufacturing in that part of the planet.
Speaking about "punishment" (for whatever reason), it is too late now, IMHO.
Military wise, even with conventional weaps the US have no chances because the Chinese would operate from the land. And its Navy is now quite comparable with what US can deploy there.
On the economic side, if Uncle Sam decides to overpress with sanctions, the Chinese may claim back trillions of bucks that the (US) government owes them, and it will destroy most of the international trade based on dollar. And if this debt is unilaterally nullified, the Chinese might start confiscating industries that belong to the US on their territory and this may really lead to military confrontation.
With all that said it looks like all sides should calm down and avoid too aggressive actions. The West is not able to put China on the knees, but can stop feeding it further on. China will likely accelerate efforts to take third-world markets (Asia, Africa, Latin America) but would it help them get the same level of profit is a question.
"to teach them a lesson they would never forget, and make sure they are the last to get up off their knees."
Youe really are upset mate. But history teaches that revenge is a poor basis for action - how many people would you kill to feel better?
Youe really are upset mate. But history teaches that revenge is a poor basis for action - how many people would you kill to feel better?
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China has no expansionist strategy from a military perspective. They are just taking back their territories as decreed by Mao Zedong in 1949. They have almost completed. Its only really Taiwan to go but this could take some time. It will be achieved without bloodshed providing outsiders such as the US don’t stir the pot. Once this is completed China will be happy regarding their territories for a couple of thousand years. I'm not saying I agree with this, just saying how it is. China is building a strong military because they don't want another occurrence of the raping and pillaging of their country that occurred in the 19th and 20th century.
From an economic perspective it would seem like China has an expansionist strategy but this is just an inevitable occurrence when you have 1.5 billion people with a high work ethic and a desire to make a bit of money. It is not China’s fault that a good portion of the US is either on drugs, obese, or struggling to make ends meet because they have been screwed big time by Wall street.
I have been to China many times. it’s a great place, very vibrant, safe, friendly & warm people, interesting history and amazing cultural sites. But I can understand why some people may feel a bit uncomfortable. It is a different culture. The US is a great place also.
I did some work for a high-tech international conglomerate in China. They made a lot of money from their Chinese business. Sure, they had to hand over a bit of technology but they just handed over some old technology and kept the latest to themselves. It was a win-win situation. I don’t buy this story that China has screwed American companies. If they got screwed it was due to their own stupidity. I agree that Huawei is an issue but there are a lot better ways of handling it than what Trump is doing. The US is afraid of China because they do not conform with US interests. There are better ways of handling this than blame, revenge and bullying.
No country is perfect and I don’t think the US is in a position to criticise. When it suits the US interests, they are quite happy to rape and pillage a country and then stand on their moral high ground as if everything ethical and just. The world under Trump makes the world a far more dangerous place than anything China has ever done.
From an economic perspective it would seem like China has an expansionist strategy but this is just an inevitable occurrence when you have 1.5 billion people with a high work ethic and a desire to make a bit of money. It is not China’s fault that a good portion of the US is either on drugs, obese, or struggling to make ends meet because they have been screwed big time by Wall street.
I have been to China many times. it’s a great place, very vibrant, safe, friendly & warm people, interesting history and amazing cultural sites. But I can understand why some people may feel a bit uncomfortable. It is a different culture. The US is a great place also.
I did some work for a high-tech international conglomerate in China. They made a lot of money from their Chinese business. Sure, they had to hand over a bit of technology but they just handed over some old technology and kept the latest to themselves. It was a win-win situation. I don’t buy this story that China has screwed American companies. If they got screwed it was due to their own stupidity. I agree that Huawei is an issue but there are a lot better ways of handling it than what Trump is doing. The US is afraid of China because they do not conform with US interests. There are better ways of handling this than blame, revenge and bullying.
No country is perfect and I don’t think the US is in a position to criticise. When it suits the US interests, they are quite happy to rape and pillage a country and then stand on their moral high ground as if everything ethical and just. The world under Trump makes the world a far more dangerous place than anything China has ever done.
Cool guys,
I concur with your thoughts.
I think this is just the inevitable final stages of a declining power. It was always going to be inevitable that the US declined from their world power status, and I think that we are seeing an acceleration of that via Trump and their ineptitude on the pandemic response. Maybe they could’ve kept their powerful status for a few decades more but the election of the orange one put an end to that.
So my question would be:
How is it possible for the United States to prevent China from overtaking it or at least stop China from being the dominant Asian power?
IMO - they can’t do it militarily, China’s military is too large for a quick conflict, a long conflict would be unpalatable with the American public and the threat of nuclear weapons use too great.
They can’t do it economically. China (and the rest of Asia) can defeat the US on a trade war as we’ve seen over the last few years. They’ll never outperform non first world manufacturing.
They can’t do it by dominating trade routes. China’s Belt and Road Infrastructure has to be one of the greatest strategic moves in history which will see China dominate trade routes for 85% of the world population.
They can’t appeal to things like moral righteousness. Things like the Iraq War and their inability to deal with their gun problem have put rest to any moral authority they could have claimed.
They can’t do it via sanctions and restrictions. China and even Europe now are ignoring US sanctions on Iran.
Soon they won’t be able to do it monetarily. Use of the US dollar as the reserve currency is declining, the swift payment system will soon have a competitor.
So in a geopolitical sense I can’t see how the US can stop its inevitable decline. Maybe the only thing going for them is the ability to influence popular culture. But Hollywood can only inject a limited amount of pro-American-ness into their movies before it becomes ridiculous. And even they want the Chinese market, so I can’t see China being portrayed as the baddies in the next Hollywood blockbuster anytime soon.
I really think the US is out of options. And seeing how the nation is creeping further and further in massive internal divisions they can’t even provide a united front at home.
I concur with your thoughts.
I think this is just the inevitable final stages of a declining power. It was always going to be inevitable that the US declined from their world power status, and I think that we are seeing an acceleration of that via Trump and their ineptitude on the pandemic response. Maybe they could’ve kept their powerful status for a few decades more but the election of the orange one put an end to that.
So my question would be:
How is it possible for the United States to prevent China from overtaking it or at least stop China from being the dominant Asian power?
IMO - they can’t do it militarily, China’s military is too large for a quick conflict, a long conflict would be unpalatable with the American public and the threat of nuclear weapons use too great.
They can’t do it economically. China (and the rest of Asia) can defeat the US on a trade war as we’ve seen over the last few years. They’ll never outperform non first world manufacturing.
They can’t do it by dominating trade routes. China’s Belt and Road Infrastructure has to be one of the greatest strategic moves in history which will see China dominate trade routes for 85% of the world population.
They can’t appeal to things like moral righteousness. Things like the Iraq War and their inability to deal with their gun problem have put rest to any moral authority they could have claimed.
They can’t do it via sanctions and restrictions. China and even Europe now are ignoring US sanctions on Iran.
Soon they won’t be able to do it monetarily. Use of the US dollar as the reserve currency is declining, the swift payment system will soon have a competitor.
So in a geopolitical sense I can’t see how the US can stop its inevitable decline. Maybe the only thing going for them is the ability to influence popular culture. But Hollywood can only inject a limited amount of pro-American-ness into their movies before it becomes ridiculous. And even they want the Chinese market, so I can’t see China being portrayed as the baddies in the next Hollywood blockbuster anytime soon.
I really think the US is out of options. And seeing how the nation is creeping further and further in massive internal divisions they can’t even provide a united front at home.
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Yesterday I approached the big river company with a request to offer the option to select which manufacturing countries to eliminate from my search and presentation criteria.
I can confirm that Jeff and his underlings do not care where he sources his tat, so long has he gets to boost his personal wealth. $140 BILLON Dollars by the way. A very large proportion of which originates from flogging Chinese stuff.
I acknowledge that he is just a market trader, the real issue lies with those (including myself) who go for the one stop shop, place to go to.
IG.
I can confirm that Jeff and his underlings do not care where he sources his tat, so long has he gets to boost his personal wealth. $140 BILLON Dollars by the way. A very large proportion of which originates from flogging Chinese stuff.
I acknowledge that he is just a market trader, the real issue lies with those (including myself) who go for the one stop shop, place to go to.
IG.
Yep, even their latest TV advert showing staff isolating at work, PPE provided for working staff , and the we are still delivering attitude, was nothing to do with the fact that they were looking after their staff, it came across as we are still here maximising profit at a time of difficulty.
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I don't see a US in decline.
I do see a China on the rise. But only really filling the vacuum formally occupied by the USSR.
Does Mr Trump hate China? I wouldn't call it that. He could have imposed travel restrictions at the same time as Vietnam or North Korea or Taiwan.
But held off till the WHO called it, I believe, to avoid a diplomatic incident.
That looks more like someone that wants to be seen to be acting correctly. That the WHO took so long to call it, that got some hate.
Others won't see it that way, nothing surer....
I do see a China on the rise. But only really filling the vacuum formally occupied by the USSR.
Does Mr Trump hate China? I wouldn't call it that. He could have imposed travel restrictions at the same time as Vietnam or North Korea or Taiwan.
But held off till the WHO called it, I believe, to avoid a diplomatic incident.
That looks more like someone that wants to be seen to be acting correctly. That the WHO took so long to call it, that got some hate.
Others won't see it that way, nothing surer....
Wonder would that include the Chinese people who live down the street from me ? The Hong Kong Chinese who I go to mass with every Sunday ? or is it a "Any chinky will do" type effort ?
Wonder can all the old British Empire countries take a similar view on the deaths from the British Empire? Lets see island of Ireland population was 8.3 Million in 1841 but even that was believed to be an undercount by 1 million, by 1851 population was 6.6 million and allowing for births with a fertility rate of circa 4.2 then population decline is really close to 4 million people in 10 years. Well 5 years really as famine was from 1846 but 1831-41 population was growing at 3% annually hence real figure is close to 5 million. Population of Island of Ireland now is 6.6 million................. still less than it was in 1821.
What about India and the other places as well ?
Likely 50,000 will die in the UK, many of those wil be because UK Govt refused to take the issue seriously, did not have the correct equipment and also complete incomptence in the way they have acted but hey it is easy to want to start a war somewhere else.
Amazing all those Brexiteers are not talking about immigrants now because the NHS and Food Industries are reliant on them 25% of NHS doctors are immigrants. In total 1 in 8 working in NHS are migrants. At Food industry basic roles it is circa 80%.
An interesting reflection; see the sections on The Rise of China, and America Values.
Lee Kuan Yew Reflects -- Printout -- TIME
"I cannot judge what he did, because I did not have his information."
"You must have contention, a clash of ideas. If Galileo had not challenged the Pope, we would still believe the world is flat, right? And Christopher Columbus might never have discovered America."
"There were two groups of people in his camp. Those with convictions survived, and those who had no deep convictions died."
Lee Kuan Yew Reflects -- Printout -- TIME
"I cannot judge what he did, because I did not have his information."
"You must have contention, a clash of ideas. If Galileo had not challenged the Pope, we would still believe the world is flat, right? And Christopher Columbus might never have discovered America."
"There were two groups of people in his camp. Those with convictions survived, and those who had no deep convictions died."
Last edited by safetypee; 3rd May 2020 at 21:23.
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China? Nice people who play a long game ... very long, unlike “here today, gone tomorrow” Western politicians.
You know those little reefs in the “South China Sea”? The ones that can control all the commercial sea routes in that region? The Spratly Islands were on my desk on a weekly basis in the DIS in the mid-80s. Did anyone do anything? No, of course not. Some decades later, people are getting fluffy about what China is doing building its little chain of “unsinkable aircraft carriers”.
The Russian Bear is tactical. The Chinese Dragon is strategic.
You know those little reefs in the “South China Sea”? The ones that can control all the commercial sea routes in that region? The Spratly Islands were on my desk on a weekly basis in the DIS in the mid-80s. Did anyone do anything? No, of course not. Some decades later, people are getting fluffy about what China is doing building its little chain of “unsinkable aircraft carriers”.
The Russian Bear is tactical. The Chinese Dragon is strategic.
Russia's response as the disease spreads will be interesting . Initial Russian noise blamed Britain .
China Blamed the US military . Who will Russia Trust after the disease has spread to all parts of Russia . Interesting that flights out of Wuhan to Beijing were banned , but not flights to Russia ?
How long before we can fly to Wuhan ?
i wanna try that bat soup .
It must be way better than that Japanese sushi blow fish . At least if the blowfish is prepared wrong only a few people die . If you get a bad bat soup you can be patient zero in the next pandemic .
China Blamed the US military . Who will Russia Trust after the disease has spread to all parts of Russia . Interesting that flights out of Wuhan to Beijing were banned , but not flights to Russia ?
How long before we can fly to Wuhan ?
i wanna try that bat soup .
It must be way better than that Japanese sushi blow fish . At least if the blowfish is prepared wrong only a few people die . If you get a bad bat soup you can be patient zero in the next pandemic .
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It's like blaming UK for remains of hurricanes that sometimes arrive here from North Atlantic.
Most of the people who brought this virus to Russia came from Italy, but nobody here blames Italy as a state.
Regarding China, the land border was closed early enough and import of the virus was prevented (also because there were not many cases in Northern China).
But local idiots in Moscow were not so quick to stop flying to/from Europe (maybe because many of them or their relatives were themselves on resorts in Italy and France).
Flights to China were cargo only. Planes had 2 or 3 crews who did not leave the airplane while it was unloaded/loaded and immediately flew back.
The blame Britain was reported in RT website . A dig and usual dig at the Porter Down chappies over the novichok stuff.
RT has become less supportive of China in tone lately , more neutral . That puts Xi in the same frame as others who have attacked Russia.
That should worry the Chinese more than what the Donald says . Stalin went neutral just before he destroyed 80 percent of the German armed forces .
They were almost friendly until they weren't.
I suspect the favourite party members have already been vaccinated . We need to get some bio samples to find out why none of the elites in China have got sick and yet the Prime Minister's of Britain ,Russia and the Canadian PM wifey got sick from this . And not forgetting Chuckles .
RT has become less supportive of China in tone lately , more neutral . That puts Xi in the same frame as others who have attacked Russia.
That should worry the Chinese more than what the Donald says . Stalin went neutral just before he destroyed 80 percent of the German armed forces .
They were almost friendly until they weren't.
I suspect the favourite party members have already been vaccinated . We need to get some bio samples to find out why none of the elites in China have got sick and yet the Prime Minister's of Britain ,Russia and the Canadian PM wifey got sick from this . And not forgetting Chuckles .
The blame Britain was reported in RT website . A dig and usual dig at the Porter Down chappies over the novichok stuff.
RT has become less supportive of China in tone lately , more neutral . That puts Xi in the same frame as others who have attacked Russia.
That should worry the Chinese more than what the Donald says . Stalin went neutral just before he destroyed 80 percent of the German armed forces .
They were almost friendly until they weren't.
I suspect the favourite party members have already been vaccinated . We need to get some bio samples to find out why none of the elites in China have got sick and yet the Prime Minister's of Britain ,Russia and the Canadian PM wifey got sick from this . And not forgetting Chuckles .
RT has become less supportive of China in tone lately , more neutral . That puts Xi in the same frame as others who have attacked Russia.
That should worry the Chinese more than what the Donald says . Stalin went neutral just before he destroyed 80 percent of the German armed forces .
They were almost friendly until they weren't.
I suspect the favourite party members have already been vaccinated . We need to get some bio samples to find out why none of the elites in China have got sick and yet the Prime Minister's of Britain ,Russia and the Canadian PM wifey got sick from this . And not forgetting Chuckles .
As for why elites did not get sick. May their security details are a bit more up to scratch.
Russia has had 130k cases and 1300 deaths, Germany has had 170k and 7000 deaths, UK has has 190k and 29k deaths.
Private Eye is more credible than RT . I usually read both as entertainment . Penthouse forum readers letters had more credibility than RT . Although I would never admit to reading them or writing them 
Believe it or not, I actually agree with all the comments here. However I find it ironic that the cudgel of "Other Western Nations" in domestic political arguments has left those "Other Western Nations" in a position of having to suck up to a new power.
Capitalism is always messy, communism always strives to look neat and perfect. In China's case that has involved increasing and heavy handed repression of its citizens to maintain that image of CCP managed perfection. They have screwed the safety valve on the boiler down hard but the heat keeps building. Personally I think China is in much more danger than the US.
The US is IMO a much more resilient society and the entrepreneurial outlook that seems to be baked in to the American psyche will find a way to make lemonade from the the COVID 19 lemons. In China however, all significant decisions are made by a small isolated closed and suspicious cadre of CCP apparatchiks who won't give bad news to the big guy. This I would suggest is not a receipt for effectively dealing with a historic disruption to world trade and intergovernmental relations.
For China a brutal lockdown of the country to flatten the COVID curve plays to the strength of the communist system. Dealing with the domestic economic and foreign relations "so whats" that are being generated by the COVID pandemic, all of which are very resistant to simple top down generated solutions, is going to be much harder for China's leadership to deal with. Their clumsy and tone deaf propaganda campaign linking revoking support support for Taiwan as a condition for receiving medical supplies is one example of policy failure both in conception and execution, and is not an encouraging sign....
The scary part is the standard playbook for a dictatorship dealing with internal strife is a foreign adventure to distract the populace. Personally I think there is a increasing probability China will invade Taiwan in late October. The US will be distracted with the presidential elections so they will not react militarily, and China will use the invasion to rally the people
The US is IMO a much more resilient society and the entrepreneurial outlook that seems to be baked in to the American psyche will find a way to make lemonade from the the COVID 19 lemons. In China however, all significant decisions are made by a small isolated closed and suspicious cadre of CCP apparatchiks who won't give bad news to the big guy. This I would suggest is not a receipt for effectively dealing with a historic disruption to world trade and intergovernmental relations.
For China a brutal lockdown of the country to flatten the COVID curve plays to the strength of the communist system. Dealing with the domestic economic and foreign relations "so whats" that are being generated by the COVID pandemic, all of which are very resistant to simple top down generated solutions, is going to be much harder for China's leadership to deal with. Their clumsy and tone deaf propaganda campaign linking revoking support support for Taiwan as a condition for receiving medical supplies is one example of policy failure both in conception and execution, and is not an encouraging sign....
The scary part is the standard playbook for a dictatorship dealing with internal strife is a foreign adventure to distract the populace. Personally I think there is a increasing probability China will invade Taiwan in late October. The US will be distracted with the presidential elections so they will not react militarily, and China will use the invasion to rally the people
"In China however, all significant decisions are made by a small isolated closed and suspicious cadre of CCP apparatchiks "
You need to look at the UK Government mate.................
You need to look at the UK Government mate.................
"q"Other Western Nations" in a position of having to suck up to a new power."
i'm afraid new powers attract adherents - and that's not just country to country - look at all the folk who fawned over Harvey Weinstein or Bill gates or the Sage of Omaha, Human nature
i'm afraid new powers attract adherents - and that's not just country to country - look at all the folk who fawned over Harvey Weinstein or Bill gates or the Sage of Omaha, Human nature
Capitalism is always messy, communism always strives to look neat and perfect. In China's case that has involved increasing and heavy handed repression of its citizens to maintain that image of CCP managed perfection. They have screwed the safety valve on the boiler down hard but the heat keeps building. Personally I think China is in much more danger than the US.
The US is IMO a much more resilient society and the entrepreneurial outlook that seems to be baked in to the American psyche will find a way to make lemonade from the the COVID 19 lemons. In China however, all significant decisions are made by a small isolated closed and suspicious cadre of CCP apparatchiks who won't give bad news to the big guy. This I would suggest is not a receipt for effectively dealing with a historic disruption to world trade and intergovernmental relations.
For China a brutal lockdown of the country to flatten the COVID curve plays to the strength of the communist system. Dealing with the domestic economic and foreign relations "so whats" that are being generated by the COVID pandemic, all of which are very resistant to simple top down generated solutions, is going to be much harder for China's leadership to deal with. Their clumsy and tone deaf propaganda campaign linking revoking support support for Taiwan as a condition for receiving medical supplies is one example of policy failure both in conception and execution, and is not an encouraging sign....
The scary part is the standard playbook for a dictatorship dealing with internal strife is a foreign adventure to distract the populace. Personally I think there is a increasing probability China will invade Taiwan in late October. The US will be distracted with the presidential elections so they will not react militarily, and China will use the invasion to rally the people
The US is IMO a much more resilient society and the entrepreneurial outlook that seems to be baked in to the American psyche will find a way to make lemonade from the the COVID 19 lemons. In China however, all significant decisions are made by a small isolated closed and suspicious cadre of CCP apparatchiks who won't give bad news to the big guy. This I would suggest is not a receipt for effectively dealing with a historic disruption to world trade and intergovernmental relations.
For China a brutal lockdown of the country to flatten the COVID curve plays to the strength of the communist system. Dealing with the domestic economic and foreign relations "so whats" that are being generated by the COVID pandemic, all of which are very resistant to simple top down generated solutions, is going to be much harder for China's leadership to deal with. Their clumsy and tone deaf propaganda campaign linking revoking support support for Taiwan as a condition for receiving medical supplies is one example of policy failure both in conception and execution, and is not an encouraging sign....
The scary part is the standard playbook for a dictatorship dealing with internal strife is a foreign adventure to distract the populace. Personally I think there is a increasing probability China will invade Taiwan in late October. The US will be distracted with the presidential elections so they will not react militarily, and China will use the invasion to rally the people
