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China's expansionist strategy

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China's expansionist strategy

Old 30th Apr 2020, 11:44
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Originally Posted by Imagegear
Slightly red faced, I, as the OP, mentioned punitive tariffs but I had not considered it be a strategic gamechanger - do we now believe that it could bring about a significant decrease in the global influence of China?

IG
Now would not be a good time, their current bluster stretches the term diplomacy.

Sensitivity to criticism has left them "in no mood".

Calls for "investigation" into this catastrophe met with threats.

Not rational by our measure, but then they are not us.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 12:31
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I wonder how many people that post here have been to China? I’m no apologist, but you have to see for your own eyes what they are achieving over there. It is like the wild East, but firmly controlled. My impression is that many Chinese are perfectly happy at the way they live. I appreciate that they are looking for some lebensraum, and that will take some managing. Thankfully, it is on the other side of the globe to Europe, as I wouldn’t like to have this China on my doorstep. The only way, lMHO, is economic. Stop buying and trading with China. The US could go one step further and default on its treasuries that China holds, effectively writing off its debt. I appreciate these are unbelievable, black swan scenarios, however, we are seeing an awful lot of instability caused by the equivalent of butterflies flapping wings in the Amazon. It’s certainly going to be an interesting century.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 13:58
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China is expanding for some time now. First economically now seeking food and other sources in every corner of the world. Africa is hit hard in this regard....
Chinese long-range fishing boats are everywhere

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-af...-africa-s-fish
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 14:08
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"Now would not be a good time, their current bluster stretches the term diplomacy"

I see your President Xi and I raise you..





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Old 30th Apr 2020, 14:09
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"Some governments are already offering large cash incentives to withdraw manufacturing from China."

examples please?


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Old 30th Apr 2020, 14:38
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
"Some governments are already offering large cash incentives to withdraw manufacturing from China."

examples please?
https://www.businessleader.co.uk/jap...f-china/82975/

Japan has joined other countries around the world in creating an economic stimulus package to avoid one of the biggest financial disasters in modern times. However, part of the package included 220 billion yen (£1.6 bn) to encourage companies to shift production away from China and back to Japan. Should other nations follow the lead of the Japanese?
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 15:40
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Originally Posted by hunterboy
I wonder how many people that post here have been to China? I
It’s the only country I’ve ever visited that left me feeling physically and spiritually soiled, and very glad to leave. You can keep it.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 16:14
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Originally Posted by Toadstool
https://www.businessleader.co.uk/jap...f-china/82975/

Japan has joined other countries around the world in creating an economic stimulus package to avoid one of the biggest financial disasters in modern times. However, part of the package included 220 billion yen (£1.6 bn) to encourage companies to shift production away from China and back to Japan. Should other nations follow the lead of the Japanese?
Yes, I believe every country should have a minimum capability.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 19:36
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The problem is that China has no conscience, in the developing world they have mostly replaced the west in infrastructure, trade and development, they will buy from and sell to anyone regardless, they do not interfere with internal politics. Take a flight in Africa, walk down the street in any town to see the Chinese influence.

China is not like Russia, they are a major economic power and well able to defend its interests if needed, despite Trump sabre rattling over Taiwan and the South China Sea, the US is treading very carefully. If it came to a skirmish the US would back down very quickly, they may well have a dozen super carriers, which are usefull for bullying countries that cannot hit back, try to bully China I don’t think so, they could hit very hard.

Economically how long will it be before the Chinese economy is larger than the US, will the Yuan become the reserve currency, there is no doubt the Chinese want to be the dominant power and they will do it economically

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Old 30th Apr 2020, 20:32
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I am beginning to dream of the Cold War as being so much more a world under control - albeit under a Mutually Assured Destruction mantra.

We now seem to have a world economically destroyed by Covid 19 - which, according to the media I read, started in China. Was it a biological experiment that went wrong? Or a transfer of a virus from wild creatures to humans - I don't know.

But we currently have a US President who disliked China for business reasons before Covid 19, and a situation in the USA where Covid 19 is having some pretty dramatic domestic, political and economic effects.

I have no idea where the November presidential elections will go - but history has many examples of where domestic problems are put aside by external visions for greater adventures.

I do worry that China, exercising its military and economic power over the South China Seas area, and a US President who I now consider to be less diplomatic than some of his predecessors and who just might feel the need to "Make America Great Again" by entering into conflict with China to justify a perceived (perhaps justified) belief that China deserves some retribution for the world-wide Covid 19 disaster, could start something that we really don't want, and which neither can control.

The rhetoric from both sides over the next several months might be interesting.

Let's hope it's only interesting.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 20:35
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There is a major movement in the US to bring the manufacture of both basic and critical items back 'on-shore'. The difficulties in obtaining basics like personal protective equipment and medicines because they'd been outsourced to China have been a big wake-up call.
Short term, expect a major decline in US imports from China when the economy reopens. The question is what happens longer term - the US often has a notoriously short memory.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 20:37
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It’s the only country I’ve ever visited that left me feeling physically and spiritually soiled, and very glad to leave. You can keep it.
I worked there on and off from 1994 to 2008 and had a fantastic time. When I first arrived there it was only just starting to get into gear. Continuous roadworks and massive holes in the scenery where basic necessities like power, water and sewers where going in. In the late nineties the fareast slump happened and then the scenery was full of concrete skeletons. This didn't last long and in the 21st Century I saw a country expand at a mind boggling rate.

We are talking about a country that can build 30,000 kilometres of expressways in a decade, conurbations for 30,000 people in five years. Since Deng Xiaou Ping opened up China 1/2 billion people have become the new middle class. In the country there is still another 1/2 billion staring at a communal television and seeing all the high life in the cities and asking "when is it my turn?" That is the Chinese government's problem and after that, in fifteen years, there will be another 1/4 billion asking the same question.

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT is the alter that Beijing has to kneel to. Anything that upsets that is a major disaster. It is unbelievable the they would deliberately engineer Covid 19 which would, at whatever level, upset economic activity. Especially just before Chinese New Year where half the population is miles away from their normal place of work. GNP is paramount and they are not going to upset that by going into any international adventure which might effect the flow of goods and services.

Taiwan is a thorn in the side. It reminds them that the War of Liberation is not complete. Invade it using force? Forget it. The majority of Chinese have been born to a new China and they would not tolerate Chinese killing Chinese and anybody who thinks that Beijing can ignore that feeling is dreaming.

Even though life has improved beyond recognition for a large part of Chine they still have some stupid rules and regulations thrown at them on a whim. It would help if all provinces followed the same rule book but they don't. What is perfectly acceptable in one part of China is a heinous crime in another.

China has a long History of being pushed about, certainly in the 19th and early 20th century.. It had major cities taken over by foreign countries administered and policed by them. A lot of this was self inflicted with a corrupt Imperial Court run by Queen Victoria's opposite number Tzu Hsi. Having pulled out of the chaos that was the legacy of Mao Tse Tung China is flexing its muscles and restoring what it thinks is its position in the world.

With 1/5th of the worlds population the it is entitled to.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 20:48
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Well if history is a guide WWW 3 will be caused by a tragic miscalculation that inflames a world experiencing profound economic and structural upheaval. I see the situation today having many scary similarities to the world in 1912 and 1934. Will the spark be a Chinese military adventure to distract from domestic economic troubles that goes terribly wrong, or something else ?

Personally I predict WW3 will start with an exchange of Nuclear missiles between Pakistan and India.......
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 20:52
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Originally Posted by Bigpants
We really are in no position to:
a. complain about it.
Wrong. The year is 2020, not 1865.
Pro Tip: Bismarck is also no longer Chancellor in Germany. (Well, "Reich" to be pedantic)
That you can't do anything about it is a self defeating attitude.
If you think that you are beaten, you are.
Kypling, one of your own poets.
Also: there was no UN during the Opium Wars.
The world has changed.
China is a UN member. You have every right to complain.
Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
It’s the only country I’ve ever visited that left me feeling physically and spiritually soiled, and very glad to leave. You can keep it.
My brother felt the same way; he traveled therer quite a bit with his company over a decade ago. Stopped ages ago.

For Big Pistons: tough to bet against your estimate. That's one of a number of ways for this to all go pear shaped.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 30th Apr 2020 at 21:12.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 22:00
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Originally Posted by hunterboy
I wonder how many people that post here have been to China? I’m no apologist, but you have to see for your own eyes what they are achieving over there.
I have. Unlike some suggest it isn’t an authoritarian gulag. China is not North Korea. Plenty of Chinese grateful for their recent explosion in wealth and the ability to travel freely overseas. People are pretty much free to go about their daily lives, but collective well being is the most important value. Harmony of society is considered more important than individual rights in Asian not just Chinese culture, and this is something a lot of Westerners (especially Americans) need to understand. You are not going to change thousands of years of culture.

It’s not just their advances in China. Look at their Belt and Road Infrastructure program to build transport and utility links all over Eurasia, Africa and the Pacific. Yes, some can argue it’s a ploy to catch third world countries in a debt trap. But they still are providing brand new critical highways, railways and ports in countries which would never be able to afford them. What is China’s biggest western competitor (US) doing? Drone strikes? Foreign bases? What do you think the average citizen of the third world will appreciate more? China is shipping a lot of medical supplies overseas at the moment, gaining good favour and influence. Where’s the boxes of supplies with the US flag stamped on them?

It is like the wild East, but firmly controlled. My impression is that many Chinese are perfectly happy at the way they live.
I wouldn’t describe the country as “wild”. More civilised than a lot of poorer Asia. Brand new infrastructure criss crossing the country to a far better standard than some first world countries. Fairly safe to walk around most of the country at night alone. Low crime rate. A lot of communities socialise openly on the streets with their neighbours in some of the less urban areas instead of locking themselves in their homes which is what western society has evolved to. A big part of this social interaction is the so called “wet” market (in reality a farmer’s market), which holds an important place in Chinese culture. If any westerner thought their calls for them to be shut down permanently were going to be taken seriously they were deluded.


Last edited by dr dre; 30th Apr 2020 at 22:27.
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Old 30th Apr 2020, 22:36
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver
I worked there on and off from 1994 to 2008 and had a fantastic time. When I first arrived there it was only just starting to get into gear. Continuous roadworks and massive holes in the scenery where basic necessities like power, water and sewers where going in. In the late nineties the fareast slump happened and then the scenery was full of concrete skeletons. This didn't last long and in the 21st Century I saw a country expand at a mind boggling rate.

We are talking about a country that can build 30,000 kilometres of expressways in a decade, conurbations for 30,000 people in five years. Since Deng Xiaou Ping opened up China 1/2 billion people have become the new middle class. In the country there is still another 1/2 billion staring at a communal television and seeing all the high life in the cities and asking "when is it my turn?" That is the Chinese government's problem and after that, in fifteen years, there will be another 1/4 billion asking the same question.

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT is the alter that Beijing has to kneel to. Anything that upsets that is a major disaster. It is unbelievable the they would deliberately engineer Covid 19 which would, at whatever level, upset economic activity. Especially just before Chinese New Year where half the population is miles away from their normal place of work. GNP is paramount and they are not going to upset that by going into any international adventure which might effect the flow of goods and services.

Taiwan is a thorn in the side. It reminds them that the War of Liberation is not complete. Invade it using force? Forget it. The majority of Chinese have been born to a new China and they would not tolerate Chinese killing Chinese and anybody who thinks that Beijing can ignore that feeling is dreaming.

Even though life has improved beyond recognition for a large part of Chine they still have some stupid rules and regulations thrown at them on a whim. It would help if all provinces followed the same rule book but they don't. What is perfectly acceptable in one part of China is a heinous crime in another.

China has a long History of being pushed about, certainly in the 19th and early 20th century.. It had major cities taken over by foreign countries administered and policed by them. A lot of this was self inflicted with a corrupt Imperial Court run by Queen Victoria's opposite number Tzu Hsi. Having pulled out of the chaos that was the legacy of Mao Tse Tung China is flexing its muscles and restoring what it thinks is its position in the world.

With 1/5th of the worlds population the it is entitled to.
Good post

Seem some on here believe it ok to take military action against any country they like, overthrow whom ever they like, destabalise anybody they like and enslave countrys by offering their leaders mega loans which often just to buy arms with lots of kickbacks and do nothing for these nations.

China goes in builds the infrastructure and the west screams about how China is looking to rip these countries off, when asked what has the west done to help people it goes quiet.

Reading about how China doesn't care who they trade with is laughable bearing in mind the people whom the west has happily supplied and kept in power provided they do as they are told.

People citing democracy seem to want to ignore the democratic wishes of the people of Chile in the 1970's, Venezuala in this century and countless other countrys who did not do as they were told.

Freedom of navigation is laughable when you using military to blockade Venezuala, who refuse to do as they are told and accept an unelected puppet as their president and then has their embassy property siezed in Washington.

The Covid-19 crisis show how the much vaunted west has made many Millionaires but seems not to be able to provide the basics of equipment for its health care staff, their food industry is staffed in the UK (and US) by immigrants paid little more than minimum wage and people wonder why things are imploding..

Perhaps a little bit of inward persepctive would be good by some of the nations who seek perpetual warfare.
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Old 1st May 2020, 01:42
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
"Some governments are already offering large cash incentives to withdraw manufacturing from China."

examples please?
Included the third one out of interest/ concern, does a fair job looking at some of the ramifications.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/20.../#.Xqt4TqgzbIU

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/01/trum...eady-have.html

https://www.chinalawblog.com/2020/03...mexico-up.html



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Old 1st May 2020, 02:43
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
It’s the only country I’ve ever visited that left me feeling physically and spiritually soiled, and very glad to leave. You can keep it.
well put. My wife asked me what religion they are. I said they worship the God “money”. No curiosity, no sentimental thoughts and no value system or code of ethics. Mao destroyed 5000 years of civilization in less than 25 years. China has never recovered.
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Old 1st May 2020, 06:01
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Originally Posted by 4runner
well put. My wife asked me what religion they are. I said they worship the God “money”. No curiosity, no sentimental thoughts and no value system or code of ethics.
What a heap of bull. If you think 1.4 billion Chinese are nothing more than a bunch of brainwashed zombies who have no human feelings then the West is doomed to be replaced as the dominant civilisation sooner than I thought.

There is no greater danger than underestimating your enemy - Lao Tzu.
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Old 1st May 2020, 16:44
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Thanks to Masalama & Sidevalve for two informative posts. Like others, I have travelled extensively in China but back in '94. The progress it has made since then is astonishing but it is an authroitatian state, will not play by the rules and is a serious threat to western democracy. I left there convinced they would take over the world and they are trying hard to do just that by one method or another.
All empires fall and the empire of western demcracy built up over many years of global dominance is being challenged like never before.
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