China's expansionist strategy
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Aviation Enthus
Your comment re President Xi is an indication that China's ideology is under threat so they must manufacture a territorial threat in order to justify its existence. All the West can hope for is that the population see through this subterfuge and manufacture a new democratic ideology. I too am not holding my breath but if I did I may not have to hold it for too long.
IG
Your comment re President Xi is an indication that China's ideology is under threat so they must manufacture a territorial threat in order to justify its existence. All the West can hope for is that the population see through this subterfuge and manufacture a new democratic ideology. I too am not holding my breath but if I did I may not have to hold it for too long.
IG
And if these fears are realised, how well could the west cope? Given what we see in the UK with cuts over the llast 10 years trashing vital areas of the NHS, how about our military, which has been pared back big time as well.
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Hyperpanda
This is a blog written by one of our ex-colleagues at Jet Airways, India and talks about what’s being discussed here , quite illuminating👍
https://insightful.co.in/2020/04/19/...e-are-unaware/
https://insightful.co.in/2020/04/19/...e-are-unaware/
Interesting calculation on China’s part. When push comes to shove is the West willing to invest blood and treasure to stop China from invading Taiwan. My guess is no
With respect to broader military action, I would suggest that Military’s that prioritize senior leadership political purity over military competence, which is a feature of all dictatorships, don’t do well when they come up against a modern Western military.
China’s military might look pretty on the parade square, but when the fights on I think they will prove a lot less capable then they look.
With respect to broader military action, I would suggest that Military’s that prioritize senior leadership political purity over military competence, which is a feature of all dictatorships, don’t do well when they come up against a modern Western military.
China’s military might look pretty on the parade square, but when the fights on I think they will prove a lot less capable then they look.
China has IMHO no plans of expanding its impire
Looking at a lot of Chinese backed Western businesses, they appear to be doing well on a mix of long-term investment and hands-off management... So far so good and possibly a better solution that the boom-and-bust that Wall St. and their ilk represent?
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Image - none of these things are new
Why would they start a war with anyone when they're still trying to get the country back on its feet after the CV-19 problem?
the "It's Hitler all over again" has been (mis-used) to justify every military intervention since WW2 - especially Vietnam and Iraq. If you want to repeat that exercise..............
Why would they start a war with anyone when they're still trying to get the country back on its feet after the CV-19 problem?
the "It's Hitler all over again" has been (mis-used) to justify every military intervention since WW2 - especially Vietnam and Iraq. If you want to repeat that exercise..............
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Interesting calculation on China’s part. When push comes to shove is the West willing to invest blood and treasure to stop China from invading Taiwan. My guess is no
With respect to broader military action, I would suggest that Military’s that prioritize senior leadership political purity over military competence, which is a feature of all dictatorships, don’t do well when they come up against a modern Western military.
China’s military might look pretty on the parade square, but when the fights on I think they will prove a lot less capable then they look.
With respect to broader military action, I would suggest that Military’s that prioritize senior leadership political purity over military competence, which is a feature of all dictatorships, don’t do well when they come up against a modern Western military.
China’s military might look pretty on the parade square, but when the fights on I think they will prove a lot less capable then they look.
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When push comes to shove is the West willing to invest blood and treasure to stop China from invading Taiwan.
Thread Starter
So with the understanding gained from the above, and the prospect of total world economic and military domination, what would be an appropriate counter-strategy to address the balance of power?. It seems to me that the remaining options are very limited and most include military action, so "first strike" anyone?
I am also reminded of Obama's outgoing remarks to Trump on his way in - "...and don't mess with the balance of power". In my opinion, Trump has done just that - for better or worse will be debated in history.
IG
I am also reminded of Obama's outgoing remarks to Trump on his way in - "...and don't mess with the balance of power". In my opinion, Trump has done just that - for better or worse will be debated in history.
IG
The Chinese see Western democracies suffering a decline in their middle classes, a decline in wealth, an increase in debt, a rise in populism and a decrease of stability. Truth be told they probably don’t wish to move from their current system.
Thread Starter
China has bought several hundred million out of poverty into the middle class in the last few decades. Tens of millions of Chinese now travel overseas each year (and don’t try to claim asylum despite portraits of the country being an authoritarian gulag).
The Chinese see Western democracies suffering a decline in their middle classes, a decline in wealth, an increase in debt, a rise in populism and a decrease of stability. Truth be told they probably don’t wish to move from their current system.
The Chinese see Western democracies suffering a decline in their middle classes, a decline in wealth, an increase in debt, a rise in populism and a decrease of stability. Truth be told they probably don’t wish to move from their current system.
Parallels with the British Empire of a century ago. So another 100 years, a couple of world wars, and we are back to square one, less a significant block of earths population.
IG
How China Sees the World - and how we should see China
I can unreservedly recommend this analysis of China's strategy by H. R. McMaster, a retired United States Army lieutenant general, who is a former White House national security adviser.
It's a long piece - so make yourself a coffee first.
China has become a threat because its leaders are promoting a closed, authoritarian model as an alternative to democratic governance and free-market economics. The Chinese Communist Party is not only strengthening an internal system that stifles human freedom and extends its authoritarian control; it is also exporting that model and leading the development of new rules and a new international order that would make the world less free and less safe. China’s effort to extend its influence is obvious in the militarization of man-made islands in the South China Sea and the deployment of military capabilities near Taiwan and in the East China Sea. But the integrated nature of the Chinese Communist Party’s military and economic strategies is what makes it particularly dangerous to the United States and other free and open societies.
"what would be an appropriate counter-strategy to address the balance of power?. It seems to me that the remaining options are very limited and most include military action, so "first strike" anyone?"
Are you crazy????
A nuclear war - just what the world needs - not now, not any time..........................
As a number of posters observe countries rise, countries fall - it's the way of the world and generally the causes are far far deeper, and far longer in gestation than a few years. In the long haul the last 100 years of China NOT being a great power is the odd period.
Are you crazy????
A nuclear war - just what the world needs - not now, not any time..........................
As a number of posters observe countries rise, countries fall - it's the way of the world and generally the causes are far far deeper, and far longer in gestation than a few years. In the long haul the last 100 years of China NOT being a great power is the odd period.
Thread Starter
"what would be an appropriate counter-strategy to address the balance of power?. It seems to me that the remaining options are very limited and most include military action, so "first strike" anyone?"
Are you crazy????
A nuclear war - just what the world needs - not now, not any time..........................
As a number of posters observe countries rise, countries fall - it's the way of the world and generally the causes are far far deeper, and far longer in gestation than a few years. In the long haul the last 100 years of China NOT being a great power is the odd period.
Are you crazy????
A nuclear war - just what the world needs - not now, not any time..........................
As a number of posters observe countries rise, countries fall - it's the way of the world and generally the causes are far far deeper, and far longer in gestation than a few years. In the long haul the last 100 years of China NOT being a great power is the odd period.
IG
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The assumption is China will act rationally.
The current rhetoric coming from China runs contrary to that notion.
There is precedent for China invading Taiwan, that did not end well.
The Vietnamese fear of China is also based on precedent.
A Korean "Berlin Wall moment" would be unacceptable to China. The "uncertain" status of the North's leadership raises questions.
It could be any or all, depending on how they feel on the day.
The current rhetoric coming from China runs contrary to that notion.
There is precedent for China invading Taiwan, that did not end well.
The Vietnamese fear of China is also based on precedent.
A Korean "Berlin Wall moment" would be unacceptable to China. The "uncertain" status of the North's leadership raises questions.
It could be any or all, depending on how they feel on the day.
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If it is of any comfort to readers the Chinese were writing much the same stuff about the British Empire in the 19th century. Back then we got China hooked on opium and used military muscle to prevent them stopping the trade while today they have us hooked on cheap disposable consumer goods and use their financial muscle to keep it that way.
We really are in no position to:
a. complain about it.
b. do anything to stop them
We really are in no position to:
a. complain about it.
b. do anything to stop them
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Someone already mentioned punitive tariffs.
I think at a consumer level that might be more "organic", shall we say. Some might say "backlash".
Some governments are already offering large cash incentives to withdraw manufacturing from China.
How that plays out strategically remains to be seen.
I think at a consumer level that might be more "organic", shall we say. Some might say "backlash".
Some governments are already offering large cash incentives to withdraw manufacturing from China.
How that plays out strategically remains to be seen.
It does rather reinforce the view that allowing Huawei into 5G is a very bad idea indeed and always has been. Only a small thing but if the western governments don't wake up and oppose much of what China is doing we will all be the losers. This pandemic is an opportunity for China but it could also be an opportunity for the US & Europe with others to stop a lot of Chinese hegemony; will they get it? I won't be holding my breath..
If one controls the sea around a peninsula, why would one have to grab it? This is not about military action, it is about positioning such that military action is not required, because your potential opponent is faced with such a high cost of action, that he lives with the cost of inaction. Noting that the longer the inaction, the higher the ultimate cost of action.
Thread Starter
Slightly red faced, I, as the OP, mentioned punitive tariffs but I had not considered it be a strategic gamechanger - do we now believe that it could bring about a significant decrease in the global influence of China?
IG
IG