Lossiemouth Upgrades
The OP was about Lossie upgrades but by Post 2 it had degenerated into the usual Jockistani bashing. Along the way there has been much prejudice and ill informed comment as well as some fairly well considered comment. I've posed a few questions which nobody's taken on (future QRA/location of nukes). But the fact remains, if/when Scotland becomes independent, a newly independent England will have an awful lot of searching and potentially very expensive defence questions to answer. Why don't we just leave it at that? By the way, oor Nicola aced the debate last night!! And nobody in the audience had the cojones intelligence to bring up defence, which I guess shows just how much the average punter worries about it in the general scheme of things.
Jack
"a newly independent England will have an awful lot of searching and potentially very expensive defence questions to answer."
Well that assumes we go for the same level of kit etc as we use now. Operate the current Trident fleet out of the East Coast US for a fee for a few years - I could see it being a great excuse to scrap the Successor programme (thus pleasing everyone from the Treasury to a lot of voters) and maybe building a few more Astutes to keep Barrow busy. You could shop for warships anywhere without having to build them expensively in Scotland. The RAF comes south - maybe having to accept "austere" basing for quite a while without all the expensive support bells & whistles but it's only a few squadrons these days. The Army? Not many up there so back to Catterick or disperse more to the Middle East, Cyprus etc
It's a sad fact but "expensive defence questions" are normally only answered one way in the UK these days - cut the capability.
Well that assumes we go for the same level of kit etc as we use now. Operate the current Trident fleet out of the East Coast US for a fee for a few years - I could see it being a great excuse to scrap the Successor programme (thus pleasing everyone from the Treasury to a lot of voters) and maybe building a few more Astutes to keep Barrow busy. You could shop for warships anywhere without having to build them expensively in Scotland. The RAF comes south - maybe having to accept "austere" basing for quite a while without all the expensive support bells & whistles but it's only a few squadrons these days. The Army? Not many up there so back to Catterick or disperse more to the Middle East, Cyprus etc
It's a sad fact but "expensive defence questions" are normally only answered one way in the UK these days - cut the capability.
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As jolly as all this politics stuff is 
any chance of an actual update on the matter in hand, from an old ex-kipper mate?
Specifically, when do we expect to sent the first operational sortie out of Lossie?
Since I know people can be a bit slippery with the "truth" in these days of fake news, maybe it would be of help if I set down my own (very personal) definition of what a proper operational sortie is...
A bunch of guys n gals living on or near said RAF base pitch up at oh oh god it's early to get briefed by a bunch of other guys n gals also living on or near said RAF Base.
Said bunch bus out and strap on their shiny new four-jet, which has been prepped by a bunch of other guys n gals... (you get the picture)
Some long, or not so long, hours later, shiny new four-jet arrives home and one bunch is debriefed by another bunch.
The flying bunch head to scruffs bar (or bars, if our bunch is still mixed rank) for a proper debrief.
Some hours later, smelling of curry, beer and whatever the shiny new jet uses for hydraulic power, our heroic bunch arrive home and try and convince their wives, husband, mixed-gender partners, to bump uglies.
With mixed success.
So when is this expected to happen for the first time?
any chance of an actual update on the matter in hand, from an old ex-kipper mate?Specifically, when do we expect to sent the first operational sortie out of Lossie?
Since I know people can be a bit slippery with the "truth" in these days of fake news, maybe it would be of help if I set down my own (very personal) definition of what a proper operational sortie is...
A bunch of guys n gals living on or near said RAF base pitch up at oh oh god it's early to get briefed by a bunch of other guys n gals also living on or near said RAF Base.
Said bunch bus out and strap on their shiny new four-jet, which has been prepped by a bunch of other guys n gals... (you get the picture)
Some long, or not so long, hours later, shiny new four-jet arrives home and one bunch is debriefed by another bunch.
The flying bunch head to scruffs bar (or bars, if our bunch is still mixed rank) for a proper debrief.
Some hours later, smelling of curry, beer and whatever the shiny new jet uses for hydraulic power, our heroic bunch arrive home and try and convince their wives, husband, mixed-gender partners, to bump uglies.
With mixed success.
So when is this expected to happen for the first time?
It's a possibility IMHO. The cost of recreating the Faslane complex is going to be massive and where would you put it? Somewhere in the SW I'd guess but you'll spend the next 10 years in the courts fighting the greens and the second-home brigade.
You could cut a deal with Scotland to keep the current force operating until it runs out of time - say 2025 - but beyond that the cost implications are huge if you have to rebase as well as build a new fleet if teh nationalists stick to their No Nukes Campaign.
I'd like to see some thoughts on what the Scottish Armed Forces would look like - something akin to Denmark I'd guess??
You could cut a deal with Scotland to keep the current force operating until it runs out of time - say 2025 - but beyond that the cost implications are huge if you have to rebase as well as build a new fleet if teh nationalists stick to their No Nukes Campaign.
I'd like to see some thoughts on what the Scottish Armed Forces would look like - something akin to Denmark I'd guess??
If the independent Scotland wishes to keep the Queen as head of state, then could not Faslane and other sensitive bases be allocated as Sovereign Base Areas and kept for defence of HM's land.
it worked for Akrotiri and Dekhalia in Cyprus.
it worked for Akrotiri and Dekhalia in Cyprus.
Lots of places have the Queen as Head of State without handing over their land as Sovereign Bases. I' sure the Scots have seen what happened to Diego Garcia etc.
If you are anti-nuke you are not going to agree to have the things parked in your country for ever more. The best you'd get is maybe a 5 year extension to run it down in an orderly fashion I'd guess
If you are anti-nuke you are not going to agree to have the things parked in your country for ever more. The best you'd get is maybe a 5 year extension to run it down in an orderly fashion I'd guess
A ton of cash and effort has gone into making Lossie a key asset to the RAF, with presumably, the assumption that the Kingdom remains united.
This has quite naturally opened the debate of 'what if' and this is not a dig at Scotland, or the people of Scotland.
I am genuinely puzzled as to what 'Independence' actually means to the SNP, because if it is to mean a defined Scotland totally, completely and exclusively independent of the rest of the UK then how long would that take to establish?
Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).
There isn't a country in the world which is 'Independent' - we all need to trade and co-operate with each other to exist.
I understand the desire to appear a proud Nationalist, but if a break was achieved and everyone lined up along the border and bared their arse at the neighbours, then what?
It would look the same ... to begin with ... but the cost of setting up everything a state needs to function would take decades and cost a fortune.
Would there be an instant turning off the tap of vital services?
Tax, Pensions, Benefits, MI-5/6, Q. Power Generation?
As for QRA - It needn't need to be too far north, a couple of sheds at Newcastle Airport ought to do it. Scottish airspace would be Scotland's responsibility.
The SSBN's are an issue, and as long as France have them, I'm sure the RN will have them too. The relocation cost will have to be spread but it is not insurmountable.
The floating jetties could 'float-off' somewhere else and a new missile handling facility built in the south.
I still remain puzzled as to what an Independent Scotland stands to gain from this.
In much the same way as i wonder what a UK outside the EU would gain (but that's another huge can o'worms)
This isn't some 'Vote Idol' reality game where the masses are tricked into thinking that just because they asked/voted for it, that it will automatically happen.
On a positive note, I look forward to the first P-8 arriving at Kinloss and subsequently operating from Lossie - for many years to come.
This has quite naturally opened the debate of 'what if' and this is not a dig at Scotland, or the people of Scotland.
I am genuinely puzzled as to what 'Independence' actually means to the SNP, because if it is to mean a defined Scotland totally, completely and exclusively independent of the rest of the UK then how long would that take to establish?
Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).
There isn't a country in the world which is 'Independent' - we all need to trade and co-operate with each other to exist.
I understand the desire to appear a proud Nationalist, but if a break was achieved and everyone lined up along the border and bared their arse at the neighbours, then what?
It would look the same ... to begin with ... but the cost of setting up everything a state needs to function would take decades and cost a fortune.
Would there be an instant turning off the tap of vital services?
Tax, Pensions, Benefits, MI-5/6, Q. Power Generation?
As for QRA - It needn't need to be too far north, a couple of sheds at Newcastle Airport ought to do it. Scottish airspace would be Scotland's responsibility.
The SSBN's are an issue, and as long as France have them, I'm sure the RN will have them too. The relocation cost will have to be spread but it is not insurmountable.
The floating jetties could 'float-off' somewhere else and a new missile handling facility built in the south.
I still remain puzzled as to what an Independent Scotland stands to gain from this.
In much the same way as i wonder what a UK outside the EU would gain (but that's another huge can o'worms)
This isn't some 'Vote Idol' reality game where the masses are tricked into thinking that just because they asked/voted for it, that it will automatically happen.
On a positive note, I look forward to the first P-8 arriving at Kinloss and subsequently operating from Lossie - for many years to come.
A quick question.
I see that Nicola Sturgeon wants to stop Brexit and have a referendum on Scottish Independence, amongst other things.
In her own words the ‘once in a generation’ referendum claim was only due to be revoked in light of Brexit being a material change to the state of the UK.
If we don’t Brexit, surely there would be no justification for another Indyref. Or am I missing something?
BV
In her own words the ‘once in a generation’ referendum claim was only due to be revoked in light of Brexit being a material change to the state of the UK.
If we don’t Brexit, surely there would be no justification for another Indyref. Or am I missing something?
BV
If, and I repeat if, Scotland does eventually achieve independence, presumably the Scottish National Party would have to become simply the National Party and then, in view of their clearly socialist leanings, they could become the National Socialist Party..... Oh, "hang on" (to borrow Fiona Bruce's currently oft repeated expression) - that's been done before, and look what happened!
It's also curious to reflect that the Nationalists used to be known as the "Tartan Tories", which reflects quite a remarkable swing from right to left, which prompts the further thought that any new, improved National Party could well end up with a wide selection of left and right wingers.
On a lighter note, when I was a Sub Lieutenant I was involved in the legal investigation into an board case of sabotage and, when the perpetrator was eventually caught and duly arraigned at the Captain's Table, his defence was that he was only obeying orders. When asked on whose orders, he turned and pointed to me and said that it was on my orders in my capacity as a Vice Admiral in the Scottish Republican Navy! Not bad going for a 20 year old really, and although it only took a day for me to escape the clutches of the Directorate of Naval Security who were called in, but I'm sure it took the sailor concerned a lot longer to escape from the clutches of the psychiatrists.
On a minor informative note, further to HAS59's "Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).", the RNLI has been operating most impressively in the Republic of Ireland for nearly 100 years.
Belated apologies for joining the drift to thread drift.
Jack
It's also curious to reflect that the Nationalists used to be known as the "Tartan Tories", which reflects quite a remarkable swing from right to left, which prompts the further thought that any new, improved National Party could well end up with a wide selection of left and right wingers.
On a lighter note, when I was a Sub Lieutenant I was involved in the legal investigation into an board case of sabotage and, when the perpetrator was eventually caught and duly arraigned at the Captain's Table, his defence was that he was only obeying orders. When asked on whose orders, he turned and pointed to me and said that it was on my orders in my capacity as a Vice Admiral in the Scottish Republican Navy! Not bad going for a 20 year old really, and although it only took a day for me to escape the clutches of the Directorate of Naval Security who were called in, but I'm sure it took the sailor concerned a lot longer to escape from the clutches of the psychiatrists.
On a minor informative note, further to HAS59's "Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).", the RNLI has been operating most impressively in the Republic of Ireland for nearly 100 years.
Belated apologies for joining the drift to thread drift.
Jack
If, and I repeat if, Scotland does eventually achieve independence, presumably the Scottish National Party would have to become simply the National Party and then, in view of their clearly socialist leanings, they could become the National Socialist Party..... Oh, "hang on" (to borrow Fiona Bruce's currently oft repeated expression) - that's been done before, and look what happened!
It's also curious to reflect that the Nationalists used to be known as the "Tartan Tories", which reflects quite a remarkable swing from right to left, which prompts the further thought that any new, improved National Party could well end up with a wide selection of left and right wingers.
On a lighter note, when I was a Sub Lieutenant I was involved in the legal investigation into an board case of sabotage and, when the perpetrator was eventually caught and duly arraigned at the Captain's Table, his defence was that he was only obeying orders. When asked on whose orders, he turned and pointed to me and said that it was on my orders in my capacity as a Vice Admiral in the Scottish Republican Navy! Not bad going for a 20 year old really, and although it only took a day for me to escape the clutches of the Directorate of Naval Security who were called in, but I'm sure it took the sailor concerned a lot longer to escape from the clutches of the psychiatrists.
On a minor informative note, further to HAS59's "Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).", the RNLI has been operating most impressively in the Republic of Ireland for nearly 100 years.
Belated apologies for joining the drift to thread drift.
Jack
It's also curious to reflect that the Nationalists used to be known as the "Tartan Tories", which reflects quite a remarkable swing from right to left, which prompts the further thought that any new, improved National Party could well end up with a wide selection of left and right wingers.
On a lighter note, when I was a Sub Lieutenant I was involved in the legal investigation into an board case of sabotage and, when the perpetrator was eventually caught and duly arraigned at the Captain's Table, his defence was that he was only obeying orders. When asked on whose orders, he turned and pointed to me and said that it was on my orders in my capacity as a Vice Admiral in the Scottish Republican Navy! Not bad going for a 20 year old really, and although it only took a day for me to escape the clutches of the Directorate of Naval Security who were called in, but I'm sure it took the sailor concerned a lot longer to escape from the clutches of the psychiatrists.
On a minor informative note, further to HAS59's "Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).", the RNLI has been operating most impressively in the Republic of Ireland for nearly 100 years.
Belated apologies for joining the drift to thread drift.
Jack
"The floating jetties could 'float-off' somewhere else and a new missile handling facility built in the south."
The question is where exactly? You have to have relatively easy access to deep water close to the base if possible so that really puts you in SW England or SW Wales. IIRC there was some talk of relocating them to Falmouth and sticking them under the headland at Flushing but ...................
The question is where exactly? You have to have relatively easy access to deep water close to the base if possible so that really puts you in SW England or SW Wales. IIRC there was some talk of relocating them to Falmouth and sticking them under the headland at Flushing but ...................
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The £2,000 per head subsidy does not exist outside of a corrupt bookkeeping exercise. The details are too long to go into here, but consider just a few simple facts: Scotland has the highest per capita GDP of any part of the UK outside of London and SE England, has lower unemployment than anywhere outside of London, and exports more per head than any other part of the UK, is allocated 8.5% of UK oil and gas revenues when 90%+ accrue from oil and gas produced in Scottish waters. Who needs subsidised? Certainly not Scotland.
A ton of cash and effort has gone into making Lossie a key asset to the RAF, with presumably, the assumption that the Kingdom remains united.
This has quite naturally opened the debate of 'what if' and this is not a dig at Scotland, or the people of Scotland.
I am genuinely puzzled as to what 'Independence' actually means to the SNP, because if it is to mean a defined Scotland totally, completely and exclusively independent of the rest of the UK then how long would that take to establish?
Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).
There isn't a country in the world which is 'Independent' - we all need to trade and co-operate with each other to exist.
I understand the desire to appear a proud Nationalist, but if a break was achieved and everyone lined up along the border and bared their arse at the neighbours, then what?
It would look the same ... to begin with ... but the cost of setting up everything a state needs to function would take decades and cost a fortune.
Would there be an instant turning off the tap of vital services?
Tax, Pensions, Benefits, MI-5/6, Q. Power Generation?
As for QRA - It needn't need to be too far north, a couple of sheds at Newcastle Airport ought to do it. Scottish airspace would be Scotland's responsibility.
The SSBN's are an issue, and as long as France have them, I'm sure the RN will have them too. The relocation cost will have to be spread but it is not insurmountable.
The floating jetties could 'float-off' somewhere else and a new missile handling facility built in the south.
I still remain puzzled as to what an Independent Scotland stands to gain from this.
In much the same way as i wonder what a UK outside the EU would gain (but that's another huge can o'worms)
This isn't some 'Vote Idol' reality game where the masses are tricked into thinking that just because they asked/voted for it, that it will automatically happen.
On a positive note, I look forward to the first P-8 arriving at Kinloss and subsequently operating from Lossie - for many years to come.
This has quite naturally opened the debate of 'what if' and this is not a dig at Scotland, or the people of Scotland.
I am genuinely puzzled as to what 'Independence' actually means to the SNP, because if it is to mean a defined Scotland totally, completely and exclusively independent of the rest of the UK then how long would that take to establish?
Everything currently 'National' will have to be started up, from scratch from NHS, RNLI to National Tyres (well, you catch my drift).
There isn't a country in the world which is 'Independent' - we all need to trade and co-operate with each other to exist.
I understand the desire to appear a proud Nationalist, but if a break was achieved and everyone lined up along the border and bared their arse at the neighbours, then what?
It would look the same ... to begin with ... but the cost of setting up everything a state needs to function would take decades and cost a fortune.
Would there be an instant turning off the tap of vital services?
Tax, Pensions, Benefits, MI-5/6, Q. Power Generation?
As for QRA - It needn't need to be too far north, a couple of sheds at Newcastle Airport ought to do it. Scottish airspace would be Scotland's responsibility.
The SSBN's are an issue, and as long as France have them, I'm sure the RN will have them too. The relocation cost will have to be spread but it is not insurmountable.
The floating jetties could 'float-off' somewhere else and a new missile handling facility built in the south.
I still remain puzzled as to what an Independent Scotland stands to gain from this.
In much the same way as i wonder what a UK outside the EU would gain (but that's another huge can o'worms)
This isn't some 'Vote Idol' reality game where the masses are tricked into thinking that just because they asked/voted for it, that it will automatically happen.
On a positive note, I look forward to the first P-8 arriving at Kinloss and subsequently operating from Lossie - for many years to come.
The £2,000 per head subsidy does not exist outside of a corrupt bookkeeping exercise. The details are too long to go into here, but consider just a few simple facts: Scotland has the highest per capita GDP of any part of the UK outside of London and SE England, has lower unemployment than anywhere outside of London, and exports more per head than any other part of the UK, is allocated 8.5% of UK oil and gas revenues when 90%+ accrue from oil and gas produced in Scottish waters. Who needs subsidised? Certainly not Scotland.
I see that Nicola Sturgeon wants to stop Brexit and have a referendum on Scottish Independence, amongst other things.
In her own words the ‘once in a generation’ referendum claim was only due to be revoked in light of Brexit being a material change to the state of the UK.
If we don’t Brexit, surely there would be no justification for another Indyref. Or am I missing something?
BV
In her own words the ‘once in a generation’ referendum claim was only due to be revoked in light of Brexit being a material change to the state of the UK.
If we don’t Brexit, surely there would be no justification for another Indyref. Or am I missing something?
BV
The 2014 Referendum was superintended by the 2012 Edinburgh Agreement between David Cameron and Alex Salmond. This is the legality and what gave the referendum life. If you can find anything in it that says this was a "once in a generation referendum" I'll happily donate a tenner to a charity of your choice. The "once in a generation" is a bit like "will of the people", a nebulous phrase that has somehow achieved quasi legal status. In fact, in one interview (with Andrew Marr below), Alex Salmond said the referendum is the kind of opportunity that comes around "probably once in a generation" but that this was "only his personal opinion". In the interview, he qualified his opinion twice with the caveat that it was only his personal opinion.
Surely, whether or not anyone actually committed to “ once in a generation”, referendums on major constitutional change can’t keep coming round every couple of years. How can you run a country under those conditions? And, by the way, they should need a 2/3 majority for something as fundamental as a Scottish independence or leaving the EU. The average golf club requires a 2/3 majority to change its membership rules!
More than a Coastguard
That was a rather selective answer to a puzzling question ... and you'll need more than a few coastwatchers.
A quick peek at what the UK Govt currently have to operate comes up with a few more (uncosted) agencies you may well need to maintain the standard we all currently have.
Cabinet Office 22 agencies and public bodies
Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy 41 agencies and public bodies
Department for Digital, Culture, Media & Sport 45 agencies and public bodies
Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs 33 agencies and public bodies
Department for Transport 24 agencies and public bodies
Department for Work & Pensions 15 agencies and public bodies
Foreign & Commonwealth Office 10 agencies and public bodies
Home Office 29 agencies and public bodies
Ministry of Defence 27 agencies and public bodies
There actually hundreds more organisations which are currently national (which includes all of the UK) which an Indi Scotland may well need.
Which would take years and would cost more than the 'voters' would be happy with.
I am genuinely puzzled as to what it is you feel the need to be independent from and what it is you think you will be gaining.
Independence from oppression I can understand - is it independence out of a fit of pique?
I have lived on the border and on both sides of it - half my family are Scots the other are not.
I see no point whatsoever in turning back the clock and tearing down the union for the dubious joy of saying 'Get it right up yi' and watching another re-run of Braveheart'.
I know what you have to lose on day one after 'freedom' - I do not know what you think you will gain.
"agencies you may well need to maintain the standard we all currently have."
Not sure you'd have half of those if you started with a clean sheet of paper.
So what would the Royal Scots Airforce look like:-
1 Business Jet (European range only ) for Ministers
1 squadron of F-16's (very cheap) or Gripen (effective and Nordic) for notional QRA
6 medium sized Fishery protection aircraft
24-40 helicopters (medium) - something that the guys at ABZ can maintain easily - for the Scots Army
6 air-sea rescue helicopters - maybe go for something big here
Not sure you'd have half of those if you started with a clean sheet of paper.
So what would the Royal Scots Airforce look like:-
1 Business Jet (European range only ) for Ministers
1 squadron of F-16's (very cheap) or Gripen (effective and Nordic) for notional QRA
6 medium sized Fishery protection aircraft
24-40 helicopters (medium) - something that the guys at ABZ can maintain easily - for the Scots Army
6 air-sea rescue helicopters - maybe go for something big here
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Shame we don't build our airfields like the Russians, when on leaving East Germany they lifted a lot of the taxiways etc and took them with them.
Could the nuclear sub fleet not move to somewhere like Barrow, after all they are built there. and there is a handy airfield nearby.
As for the oil revenues that our Scottish friends on here keep mentioning, do not forget it is a dwindling asset that is on the decline, once that's gone you may find that difficult to replace that in the countries coffers, there is also the decommissioning costs to think about and I seem to remember that Shetland at the last referendum wished to remain as part of the U.K.? Which would if it came to pass severely reduce the oil fields at Scotland's disposal.
i am all for letting Scotland go its own way if it wants, BUT I doubt it will ever become part of the EU again, Spain is the major blocking point, if they agree to a split and Scotland rejoining, it will bring about futher calls at home on it over Catalan.
The other problem is Sturgeon, she has already said she is not against holding another referendum in a few years if after leaving the people of Scotland decide it's not working and wish to rejoin the Union, no EU will ever want to go through that again, and one hopes the remains of the U.K. Would vote / prevent it happening.
Could the nuclear sub fleet not move to somewhere like Barrow, after all they are built there. and there is a handy airfield nearby.
As for the oil revenues that our Scottish friends on here keep mentioning, do not forget it is a dwindling asset that is on the decline, once that's gone you may find that difficult to replace that in the countries coffers, there is also the decommissioning costs to think about and I seem to remember that Shetland at the last referendum wished to remain as part of the U.K.? Which would if it came to pass severely reduce the oil fields at Scotland's disposal.
i am all for letting Scotland go its own way if it wants, BUT I doubt it will ever become part of the EU again, Spain is the major blocking point, if they agree to a split and Scotland rejoining, it will bring about futher calls at home on it over Catalan.
The other problem is Sturgeon, she has already said she is not against holding another referendum in a few years if after leaving the people of Scotland decide it's not working and wish to rejoin the Union, no EU will ever want to go through that again, and one hopes the remains of the U.K. Would vote / prevent it happening.
Last edited by NutLoose; 24th Nov 2019 at 22:02.
Richard Dangle-You'll be waiting a long time for an answer I'm afraid. For those living north of the border this is all we've had for the last umpteen years.
