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Military short of 800 pilots?

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Old 24th Apr 2018, 12:11
  #81 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lima Juliet
I’ll say it again, the reason why we have an aircrew shortage is because we are not set up to train enough.
Nearly spot on - the only word missing is 'currently' which should be between 'not' and 'set up'. While there are many factors in play, the ability of the training system to cope with current demand is the main one - the frequent talk of mass PVRs is always overstated. While of course many people find civil flying (or non-flying) jobs appealing, and some of them will end up very well paid, there are others who are content with the military wage and pension, especially when added to the potential variety and excitement of military flying.

And before everyone gives Ascent both barrels, please bear in mind that they have no control over (a) changing Brit Mil student throughput (b) IDT students taking slots at relatively short notice and (c) the ability of OCUs/OCFs to train those who have made it to that stage. There are other criticisms of Ascent which may prove to be entirely valid...

Any room under your stone JAJ?
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 12:59
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Originally Posted by TorqueOfTheDevil
Nearly spot on - the only word missing is 'currently' which should be between 'not' and 'set up'. While there are many factors in play, the ability of the training system to cope with current demand is the main one - the frequent talk of mass PVRs is always overstated. While of course many people find civil flying (or non-flying) jobs appealing, and some of them will end up very well paid, there are others who are content with the military wage and pension, especially when added to the potential variety and excitement of military flying.

And before everyone gives Ascent both barrels, please bear in mind that they have no control over (a) changing Brit Mil student throughput (b) IDT students taking slots at relatively short notice and (c) the ability of OCUs/OCFs to train those who have made it to that stage. There are other criticisms of Ascent which may prove to be entirely valid...

Any room under your stone JAJ?
If we don't have an issue with experience outflow, why may I ask are ocfs struggling with throughput presently? It's because we ain't retaining enough of the right people after 10 years with no pay rise and those remaining picking up the workload for the 23% gap identified in the report above.

No issue with mass pvrs.... Ha ha! Pull the other one.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 14:31
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So apparently there isn’t a retention problem in the RAF...
The latest PAS board results have been released and all that was offered to keep those that are soon to leave at their 1st pension point was...the opportunity to move onto the PAS pay scale; no offer of any carrot. This was insulting by the Mob, and as such I am unaware of any of my colleagues actually taking this offer up. Why would you??? Slight, and it really would be a slight increase in pension, but for that you would have to agree to another 5 years RoS...who would honestly take those terms when the external market is looking healthier on a daily basis?? It really does look like the RAF does not value experienced aviators.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 15:54
  #84 (permalink)  
 
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PAS and AFPRB

I’m not pushing the argument in either direction but I might just mention that hidden in the small print of the delayed AFPRB report it did say that the review may target specific pinch trades. Maybe PAS will be one of them and that’s why they have been seemingly ignored.

I know I’m an eternal optimist and I have no idea if it’ll come to pass but I wouldn’t sign up to PAS until seeing the outcome of the AFPRB report.

You’ll notice I am not discussing my own pay and benefits in the way others have. I think it’s all rather crass to be honest.

Trust people to be grown ups and do their own sums and research.

BV
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 17:05
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Originally Posted by VinRouge
If we don't have an issue with experience outflow, why may I ask are ocfs struggling with throughput presently? It's because we ain't retaining enough of the right people after 10 years with no pay rise and those remaining picking up the workload for the 23% gap identified in the report above.

No issue with mass pvrs.... Ha ha! Pull the other one.
Bang on the money here. Certainly my view of the front line.

It appears some here have had many years of passing their laundry forward!
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 18:04
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PN - d’oh! Good point, post corrected to “length of service” not “age” - that’ll learn me not to type on an iPhone!

VR

As for the age of leavers, I'd be interested to see if that includes all GD branch, including hangar on staffers, or those who actually fly, and which stream. Those stats include pretty much the main cadre of VSO who will of course stay on till 55, or certainly much longer. 1* and above They account for 20% of the pilot cadre. see page 27. It also shows us down a whopping 23% for Junior Officer pilots.
I think you need a colour blind test me old. The 1-star and above cadre within the Pilot sub-branch is more like 2.5% of the total 2,010 liability for pilots. Rather than looking at page 27 (with all its colours) look at page 18 - the pilot liability is 2,010 and the number of JOs is 1,250 or 62%. If we add say 220 of the Sqn Ldrs (PAS and Flt Cdrs) and 50 Wg Cdrs (OC Ops and Sqn Cdrs) then we get a total of 1,520 or 75% being in flying jobs (not flying-related or “hangers on” as you like to call them). That is probably about right as after 4 back to back flying tours then most are ready for the respite of a “hanger on”tour as you like to call them

So I’m afraid that doesn’t stack up with your quote above.

As for the 23% gap, that is mostly in staff (or “hanging on”!) as the FL has been prioritised for maximum fill so many hangar-on posts are gapped or filled by other branches. We certainly aren’t that short on FL sqns as many complain about the paucity of flying hours they get each month!

I agree with BV, it is vulgar talking about the wages but I think it is important to dispel the myths. I believe that thinking ex-mil pilots will be anywhere near £120k after 3 years is unrealistic, and also not forgetting that PAS on level 35 will be about the same if you take the pension contribution on top (invisible to all) at the SCAPE rate of 52% then you are there or there abouts, plus the other allowances, medical benefits and subsidised housing (if you really want to live in one) which aren’t available to airline pilots.

Horses for courses?
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 18:59
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So, in other words, when we are talking about front line output, we are actually at 62% then, bearing in mind, comparing apples to apples, we are talking about retaining operational output creators (the pilots) and not the remainder whom occupy non operational staff roles that could in reality be filled by INZPIRE? I guess those are the individuals the gubbermint are interested in, when we consider "pilot retention""? Granted, there are essential flying execs, without whom safe flying supervision would not take place, but even assuming 1 supervisor for every 10 sqn mates, you only account for what, another 6-7%? another couple of % for OOA. but certainly, the remainder will account for a significant skew in the stats.



How can you say that ex-mil wont be on significantly more than at present, when lads who have left very recently, in SFO positions, are regularly hitting the top rate tax bracket? Simple fact is, multi branch guys are regularly hitting that. As are some FJ mates who are flying for a few years. Whilst maybe not 120k+ in 3 years (some are doing that though) it's certainly a better lie-of-the-land than what we find ourselves in the mob.

I cannot see how the 52% works out at all, as from my sums, the 21% including personal contribution that you will have at the likes of BA or VA, will give you a much bigger net pensionable wealth at 65 than you will ever get on the AFPS15 PA pension. That includes allowing for a 75% contract after 10 years (age 48). This is, of course, also accounting for drawing a pension at IPP 16/38. This does not not account for christmas bonus, family and friend staff travel, ID75/ID90, cheap duty free, free healthcare and discount Bupa typically for immediate family, loss of licence cover, discount HOTAC and the ability to put a realistic tax rebate in for business expenses. Oh, and being paid the 44p per mile accepted in business for motor mileage allowance as opposed to a rate that doesnt cover fair wear and tear.

As for housing, the contract is about to get torn up (nibbled to death by ducks). Annington will soon charge MoD market rate, there will be a new scheme which will be sold as great for everyone, whereas actually, it will be pants.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 19:10
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s for housing, the contract is about to get torn up (nibbled to death by ducks). Annington will soon charge MoD market rate, there will be a new scheme which will be sold as great for everyone, whereas actually, it will be pants.
This was covered by the Minister on Monday afternoon in response to a question.


Mr Ellwood
I must correct the hon. Lady: nobody will be forced to do anything, but the option will be available to them. We are providing more choice for our armed forces personnel, who can choose to stay on the base, rent or indeed get on the housing ladder and purchase a property. Of course, house prices vary up and down the country, so we need to make sure that there is a process to ensure a subsidised capability so that nobody is left out of pocket. However, there is a choice; nobody will be forced into any of this accommodation.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 19:28
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Not permanently is my understanding. I think you get a certain number of years to live in? I think the rest of us livers out are being bought off with the remaining budget. Will put a lot of junior ranks in Oxfordshire and the home counties in a very difficult position in terms of living arrangements. As stated by BV, you have to do your own sums and make your own decisions, factoring in the thrill of military life, excellent mukkas and fantastic memories.

However, you can't deny there are issues with the on-going pay freeze and lack of retention incentives for the more experienced , who despite wanting to stay on, for loyalty to the family when the whole package is considered, cannot see how they can justify an extention to TOS when the financial impact is as severe as it is.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 19:33
  #90 (permalink)  
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The Secretary of State for Defence (Gavin Williamson)
I have regular discussions with the Chancellor and, as the Prime Minister announced last month, the Ministry of Defence will benefit from an extra £800 million in the current financial year, including £600 million for the Dreadnought submarine programme. The Government are committed to spending at least 2% of GDP on defence, and the defence budget will rise by at least 0.5% above inflation in every year of this Parliament. The modernising defence programme will ensure that our armed forces have the right processes and capabilities to address evolving threats.


So spending will be at least 2% of GDP. Then it will increase by at least 0.5% above inflation - which index?

If inflation is 3% then the vote will increase by at least 3.5%. Presumably the increase the following year will compound on the previous increases.

The question of Foreign Aid paying for some Defence expenditure was raised but he said that £100m of humanitarian aid, for instance after the Hurricane could not be recovered from the foreign sid.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 19:36
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VR, he said the Future Accommodation Model would be trialled at the end of the year.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 20:05
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator

The Secretary of State for Defence (Gavin Williamson)
I have regular discussions with the Chancellor and, as the Prime Minister announced last month, the Ministry of Defence will benefit from an extra £800 million in the current financial year, including £600 million for the Dreadnought submarine programme. The Government are committed to spending at least 2% of GDP on defence, and the defence budget will rise by at least 0.5% above inflation in every year of this Parliament. The modernising defence programme will ensure that our armed forces have the right processes and capabilities to address evolving threats.


So spending will be at least 2% of GDP. Then it will increase by at least 0.5% above inflation - which index?

If inflation is 3% then the vote will increase by at least 3.5%. Presumably the increase the following year will compound on the previous increases.

The question of Foreign Aid paying for some Defence expenditure was raised but he said that £100m of humanitarian aid, for instance after the Hurricane could not be recovered from the foreign sid.
But will that ‘at least 2%’ be proper defence spending - manpower, resource etc - or padded out with pensions, ‘security’ and other costs that don’t make it through to front line capability?
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 20:30
  #93 (permalink)  
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Gavin did not make that clear but I get the impression he is a bit sharper than some predecessors. His sidekick is ex-army.
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 22:27
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VR

A recent pension prediction done on another site with the Armed Forces Pension calculator for a PAS Flt Lt showed an immediate pension at age 60 of £55k. I would be amazed if the airline pension schemes, which are actually investment schemes got anywhere close to this as a guaranteed sum - in fact I have just been down the pub with a BA Captain who has been with the company ‘man and boy’ and he thought that was very generous compared to what he thinks he will actually get in the end. Why? He pointed me to this article:

BA seeks to close main pension scheme - BBC News

PS. He also painted a far less optimistic picture than some have on here. The Flybe captain I was also with felt the same!
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Old 24th Apr 2018, 22:34
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator
This was covered by the Minister on Monday afternoon in response to a question.


Mr Ellwood
I must correct the hon. Lady: nobody will be forced to do anything, but the option will be available to them. We are providing more choice for our armed forces personnel, who can choose to stay on the base, rent or indeed get on the housing ladder and purchase a property. Of course, house prices vary up and down the country, so we need to make sure that there is a process to ensure a subsidised capability so that nobody is left out of pocket. However, there is a choice; nobody will be forced into any of this accommodation.
Nobody left out of pocket? Excellent. Does that mean in future when I’m doing the weekly commute, just because I’m not married I won’t have to pay accommodation charges in the same way my married home owning colleagues don’t pay to live in during the week?

Reassuring to see they are going to have true equality at the heart of their accommodation policies going forward.
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 05:45
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Amongst the 1000 jobs that are on offer include vacancies for pilots and cabin crew.

Jobs Fair | Manchester Airport
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 06:31
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Originally Posted by Melchett01
Reassuring to see they are going to have true equality at the heart of their accommodation policies going forward.
Do i detect a tone in your voice Sir?
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 10:04
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator
Do i detect a tone in your voice Sir?


And I thought I'd done a good job of hiding it! It must be the tone of someone paying 8K more for identical Mess accommodation over the course of a tour than the guy sitting next to me, all because of differing marital status categories on JPA.


How's that for not being out of pocket?!
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 17:15
  #99 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Melchett01
And I thought I'd done a good job of hiding it! It must be the tone of someone paying 8K more for identical Mess accommodation over the course of a tour than the guy sitting next to me, all because of differing marital status categories on JPA.


How's that for not being out of pocket?!
mind you, think of all the make up, hair dos, ball gowns, double tickets, sales bargains etc that you don't have to spend. Admittedly single supplements for holidays are a down side.
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Old 25th Apr 2018, 18:06
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator
mind you, think of all the make up, hair dos, ball gowns, double tickets, sales bargains etc that you don't have to spend. Admittedly single supplements for holidays are a down side.
Oh I don’t get off that lightly! Could be worse I suppose. If I were a Booty that list would be doubled!
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