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Old 5th May 2021, 05:55
  #301 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SaulGoodman
This is exactly what is the problem and why the EU should develop their militaries together. Now you have 27 inefficient militaries who all do everything separately.

An EU Army can’t happen overnight, that is why they should plan ahead together. Instead of buying different equipment, having different procedures etc.
.
Should develop, but unfortunately EU is too scattered since majority are members of NATO and the rest are doing what they think is best for them. What must be remembered is that EU is an economic union, not a military union.
However, there are very strong signs that the non-NATO countries are developing higher and higher NATO compatibility in their equipment and practices, in essence this raises the possibility of co-operation and the potential for successful outcome of co-operation. Take Finland for example: the change from cold war era T72:s to Leopards and having approx 250 of those MBT's with additional 250 IFV's was made in 10 years during 90's/00's. The change from MIG21's and Drakens to Hornets in the 90's. Acquisition of NATO compatible assault rifles. NASAMS, AMRAD-R's etc. Now the new HX project has only western fast jets participating.

What comes to pro-Russians here claiming that US is causing all the fuzz. An interesting piece of information is the EU/NATO countries that do have borders with Russia ie are in the first line:
Finland: 1271km (EU)
Estonia: 294km (EU+NATO)
Latvia: 270km (EU+NATO)
Lithuania: 266km (EU+NATO)
Poland: 204km (EU+NATO)
Norway: 196km (NATO)

When looking at the 10 countries exceeding the NATO 2% limit for 2020, these five are within. Finland is jumping above that 2% limit too with the HX project (not that it would have any meaning since not a member of NATO).
To me it looks like every country that is next to Russia is really securing themselves in one way or another (by fulfilling the NATO contract requirements or whatever). So the question is again: what is considered as a threat if it is not Russia?
Surely the answer is not that naive statement of "US propaganda scaring European", Russia has itself freightened everyone with its actions all around its borders, from Crimea and Georgia to Estonia and the Archipelago of Finland.


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Old 5th May 2021, 07:21
  #302 (permalink)  
 
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"NATO is intimidating Europe about the Russian threat and forcing it to build up its military capabilities. "

NATO can't even get its founding members to meet its proposed expenditure levels mate
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Old 5th May 2021, 08:24
  #303 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat
Macron in a red cape? Dutch peacekeepers? Luxembourg's Special Forces? The Maltese Navy?

Ok, I give up....

Is it the current military alliance withe the US, UK and Canada?
They may do battle, my question is what’s to stop him from marching on a tree lined Paris street?

An impotent Biden administration who’ll yell stop or I’ll drop more sanctions? The Germans? The British who have whittled away their forces?

Maybe the Irish, they’ll get them all drunk on Irish moonshine.
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Old 5th May 2021, 08:24
  #304 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by usedtobeATC
There are more smart people In Europe, than fools who understand where the real threat comes from, which is why they do not want to pay in vain to NATO. That is why they do not want to create a EU army, they have enough of their own armies.
Where does the real threat come from?
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Old 5th May 2021, 09:19
  #305 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by usedtobeATC
For 6 years of war in the east of Ukraine (from 2014), 3,055 cases of civilian deaths were recorded: 1,814 men, 1,057 women, 98 boys, 49 girls and 37 adults, whose gender is not established. What makes Kiev kill its citizens in the east? Yes, it is Uncle Sam who forces them to do this, otherwise they will not be accepted into NATO. But Ukraine and Georgia are not Yugoslavia, where good Europe allowed NATO troops to kill civilians in order to shift all the problems to Europe.

That's just why Putin threatened Ukraine last month, that if Kiev launches a large-scale military operation in the Donbas, it will lead to the death of Ukraine.
err... Russian forces are within Ukraine borders, "on vacation". On vacation not dissimilar to the vacating veterans in Crimea in 2014. Once Kiev is threatening to throw out hostile foreign military, Putin is threatening Kiev with death. What a peace keeping mission, I say. Uncle Sam has nothing to do with it. Make it other way round: if you'd have foreign troops within Russian territory, what would you guys do? Try throwing them out?
Putins peace keeping: invade and annex.


Originally Posted by usedtobeATC
You do not like that Russia prevents the killing of civilians in Ukraine and Georgia, then do not approach our borders with your NATO. America really wants to unleash a conflict in Europe.
So you are saying that Russia will invade its neighbors in case they make sovereign decisions about their defence? If anyone does anything that is not of Kremlins liking, Putin brings in the troops. No wonder one doesn't have that many friends...
This isn't going anywhere. Now I've got your point of view, and I can't agree with it.
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Old 5th May 2021, 09:21
  #306 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Should develop, but unfortunately EU is too scattered since majority are members of NATO and the rest are doing what they think is best for them. What must be remembered is that EU is an economic union, not a military union.
However, there are very strong signs that the non-NATO countries are developing higher and higher NATO compatibility in their equipment and practices, in essence this raises the possibility of co-operation and the potential for successful outcome of co-operation. Take Finland for example: the change from cold war era T72:s to Leopards and having approx 250 of those MBT's with additional 250 IFV's was made in 10 years during 90's/00's. The change from MIG21's and Drakens to Hornets in the 90's. Acquisition of NATO compatible assault rifles. NASAMS, AMRAD-R's etc. Now the new HX project has only western fast jets participating.

What comes to pro-Russians here claiming that US is causing all the fuzz. An interesting piece of information is the EU/NATO countries that do have borders with Russia ie are in the first line:
Finland: 1271km (EU)
Estonia: 294km (EU+NATO)
Latvia: 270km (EU+NATO)
Lithuania: 266km (EU+NATO)
Poland: 204km (EU+NATO)
Norway: 196km (NATO)

When looking at the 10 countries exceeding the NATO 2% limit for 2020, these five are within. Finland is jumping above that 2% limit too with the HX project (not that it would have any meaning since not a member of NATO).
To me it looks like every country that is next to Russia is really securing themselves in one way or another (by fulfilling the NATO contract requirements or whatever). So the question is again: what is considered as a threat if it is not Russia?
Surely the answer is not that naive statement of "US propaganda scaring European", Russia has itself freightened everyone with its actions all around its borders, from Crimea and Georgia to Estonia and the Archipelago of Finland.
just to clarify: an EU Army as a single entity is decades away, if it ever happens. But at the moment there are 27 different islands all going at it alone varying from medium level (France) to piss poor (Malta) all with different equipment and different procedures. Where is the problem of aligning the 27 militaries.

Why negotiate the procurement of equipment separately to end up with a mixed bag of equipment? The MRTT fleet is a small example of how it could work.

At the moment the EU is a “superpower” and single entity when it comes to trading and regulations, but military wise it can’t act together at the moment. I also don’t see why NATO and an “EU Military Alliance” can’t exist in paralel.
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Old 5th May 2021, 09:57
  #307 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SaulGoodman
just to clarify: an EU Army as a single entity is decades away, if it ever happens. But at the moment there are 27 different islands all going at it alone varying from medium level (France) to piss poor (Malta) all with different equipment and different procedures. Where is the problem of aligning the 27 militaries.

Why negotiate the procurement of equipment separately to end up with a mixed bag of equipment? The MRTT fleet is a small example of how it could work.

At the moment the EU is a “superpower” and single entity when it comes to trading and regulations, but military wise it can’t act together at the moment. I also don’t see why NATO and an “EU Military Alliance” can’t exist in paralel.
This pretty much sums it all up.
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Old 5th May 2021, 10:00
  #308 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SaulGoodman
just to clarify: an EU Army as a single entity is decades away, if it ever happens. But at the moment there are 27 different islands all going at it alone varying from medium level (France) to piss poor (Malta) all with different equipment and different procedures. Where is the problem of aligning the 27 militaries.

Why negotiate the procurement of equipment separately to end up with a mixed bag of equipment? The MRTT fleet is a small example of how it could work.

At the moment the EU is a “superpower” and single entity when it comes to trading and regulations, but military wise it can’t act together at the moment. I also don’t see why NATO and an “EU Military Alliance” can’t exist in paralel.
You state an EU Army is decades away,

The Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) is the part of the European Union's (EU) security and defence policy (CSDP) in which 25 of the 27 national armed forces pursue structural integration. Based on Article 42.6 and Protocol 10 of the Treaty on European Union, introduced by the Treaty of Lisbon in 2009, PESCO was first initiated in 2017.[1] The initial integration within the PESCO format is a number of projects which launched in 2018.[2]

Together with the Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD), the European Defence Fund and the Military Planning and Conduct Capability (MPCC) it forms a new comprehensive defence package for the EU.[1]

PESCO is similar to enhanced co-operation in other policy areas, in the sense that integration does not require that all EU member states participate.


They also have:

Command options for EU-led missions[edit]

[i]For each military mission (certain missions are also referred to as operation), the Council nominates a dedicated OHQ. This section outlines the main options for OHQ.[3][page needed]
Autonomous operations and missions[edit]
Established in 2017, the MPCC is the EU's first permanent OHQ and supersedes the previous EU OPCEN. At present it may run only non-executive operations, but will by the end of 2020 the MPCC will also be capable of running executive operations of up to 2500 troops (i.e. the size of one battle group).[1]


It would appear that a lot of background work has already been sorted.
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Old 5th May 2021, 10:16
  #309 (permalink)  
 
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The Nip,

I stated as “a single entity”, which PESCO is obviously not. I am not sure when or if a EU Army will ever be a “single entity” (For that to happen you need the EU to become a Federation of some kind.). But through integration and cooperation it should be able to act as a single entity. And personally I have no issues with that. I actually believe that it is the only way forward.
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Old 5th May 2021, 11:24
  #310 (permalink)  
 
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However, I do have issues with kids from Dorset or Michigan, Brisbane or Alberta dying in the defence of Europe
Err isn't that sort of the point of NATO (Oz aside) - Article 5 and all that? Are you suggesting that NATO should be disbanded?

Some halfway house where you squander billions on homemade hardware selected for the country of manufacture
'cos that never ever happens in the UK, US etc etc

and then run to the US, UK and Commonwealth when it turns to sh1t.
When exactly did it last "turn to sh*t"? I think you've spent a little too long bingeing on Guy Martin's TV progs or listening to Farage's speeches.

I guess you kept your opinions to yourself while you were serving...
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Old 5th May 2021, 11:44
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat
...and then run to the US, UK and Commonwealth when it turns to sh1t. I don't think that's an unfair ask?
Well, to be fair, the UK has had a tendency to mingle with politics in Europe for a long long time... getting itself into wars etc. it technically didn't have to get involved in, based on their own agenda, not the one of other countries...

Same with the US, they stayed "neutral" in both wars, until realizing that wasn't an option.... or war was brought onto them.

And ofcourse you'd ask the next country in line to help if your own is being run over, but that doesn't mean you haven't been doing your best to stop it. And the next country in line would much rather fight a war abroad than home on their own soil....
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Old 5th May 2021, 16:15
  #312 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by usedtobeATC
I have already said about it several times and now I want to know your ideas.
You’ve inferred quite a lot, but seem to have fallen short of naming a country/person. If you have, point me towards the post number and I’ll read it.
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Old 5th May 2021, 18:13
  #313 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by West Coast
Where does the real threat come from?
Clearly China is eating everyone's lunch industrially.
So rather than act to restore a balance, we act to ensure a future where our kids can aspire to be houseboys in some Chinese mansion.
We meanwhile distract ourselves with idiocies such as Brexit, Iran sanctions and pushing NATO closer to Moscow. Just imho.
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Old 5th May 2021, 21:13
  #314 (permalink)  
 
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However, I do have issues with kids from Dorset or Michigan, Brisbane or Alberta dying in the defence of Europe
Err isn't that sort of the point of NATO (Oz aside) - Article 5 and all that? Are you suggesting that NATO should be disbanded?
Whether events have outpaced NATO is a separate question, for the last 45 years I'd have said NATO should be kept, but these days..... not so sure. And Article 5 has only been invoked once, nowhere near the North Atlantic and numerous non-NATO members contributed (many far more than some of the NATO members). My issue isn't what NATO do, or don't do, in response to a threat; its what they are forced into by the actions of an EU with a foreign policy and military capability with its own agenda. Hypothetically, imagine an EU army sparking a conflict between Greece and Turkey which drags in Russia, and then invoking Article 5.
Some halfway house where you squander billions on homemade hardware selected for the country of manufacture
'cos that never ever happens in the UK, US etc etc - [/QUOTE]

The Chinook was not built in the UK, but purchased anyway, and currently supporting the French because they don't have that capability.I'd argue that where we have had a platform with poor capability, performance or reliability, its been a eurofudge project. Ask the Australians how they are getting on with the NH90 or Tigre......


and then run to the US, UK and Commonwealth when it turns to sh1t.
When exactly did it last "turn to sh*t"? I think you've spent a little too long bingeing on Guy Martin's TV progs or listening to Farage's speeches.
The most recent examples in Europe would be Bosnia, Kosovo and Ukraine. In Bosnia, other than the French, the EU contributed very little either militarily or politically, likewise Kosovo, and it was mainly the US that did the heavy lifting once NATO took over. Since the annexing of Crimea in 2014, the US has really beefed up its presence around the Black Sea and the UK has small forces deployed in the Baltic (trip wires rather than deterrents)

I guess you kept your opinions to yourself while you were serving...
No more or less than you, I would guess.
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Old 6th May 2021, 01:48
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My issue isn't what NATO do, or don't do, in response to a threat; its what they are forced into by the actions of an EU with a foreign policy and military capability with its own agenda.
A little like the French dragging leveraging the USA into Vietnam to assist them in a battle they were losing against 'communists.'
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Old 6th May 2021, 05:56
  #316 (permalink)  
 
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Hypothetically, imagine an EU army sparking a conflict between Greece and Turkey which drags in Russia, and then invoking Article 5.
Greece and Turkey are currently both NATO members. What prevents them from going at eachother? I’d say NATO membership and Turkey’s dependence on EU trade

Russia and Turkey aren’t actually good mates.

So I probably don’t understand what you mean exactly...

I have been in Afghanistan under NATO/ ISAF because of 9/11. Justified? Absolutely not imho. Still in favour of NATO though. But Europe / EU should not rely on NATO alone.

Russia has attacked Turkey’s troops last year. I’d say there is bigger risk of sparking a conflict right there.
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Old 6th May 2021, 07:14
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A another couple of points, if we had remained, re-joined the EU and the progress toward a European Army (ie European Armed Forces), how would that play? Imagine that control of Britain's entire defence and security interests were controlled by Brussels? Should the Argentinians seize the opportunity to threaten, never mind invade, the Falklands Islands again. Could we realistically see Belgian and Spanish troops being embarked on German Ships supported by a French Aircraft Carrier, for eg, to head on down to the South Atlantic with a realistic intent to rescue the Falkland Islanders from Argentinian Forces. The Falklands after all, would be the EUs military responsibility.

Another point, what if this set too with the French were to occur if we were still in? Or is the argument it wouldn't if we were, in which case what's all the bother about?

FB

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Old 6th May 2021, 07:56
  #318 (permalink)  
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From Defense News, by Matthew Kambrod*, reference the posts above concerning the relevance and role of NATO

* (Matthew R. Kambrod is a 1962 graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point with a master's degree in international relations from George Washington University in Washington, D.C. Prior to his retirement from the Army in 1987, he was Deputy for Aviation in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Research, Development, and Acquisition, where he had executive oversight of all Army aviation programs in terms of development and procurement of both aircraft and their systems. Earlier tours in the Pentagon included assignments involving the development of policy, doctrine, and requirements related to Army aviation force structure, training, and operational issues.)

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/...-a-pipe-dream/

Commentary - NATO defending Europe is a pipe dream

.....First, believe this: NATO is no more. The singular, powerful deterrent to Soviet aggression in the ’70s, ’80s and through the first decade of 2000 is factually gone. Clearly, the name is there. Thirty nations subscribe and meet regularly in Brussels, but their collective security — the very purpose of the alliance — was guaranteed by U.S. military power and U.S. military power alone. To believe otherwise is to believe fiction. That crucial underpinning is now gone.

In Europe, troop strengths under the Obama administration declined by 85 percent since the height of the Cold War, withdrawing combat-ready armor and infantry divisions poised instantly to battle Soviet forces. Anti-armor attack and assault helicopters were removed, to include U.S. Air Force A-10 attack aircraft embedded to counter the ever-increasing tank forces of Soviet armies.

Of equal importance, the key to rapid reinforcement of NATO was strategic airlift capable of inserting troops and weapons systems in a sequence, indisputably bolstering forward-based U.S. combat units. C-5 cargo aircraft, essential to that reinforcement, were halved in operational numbers, and some key C-17 units providing strategic airlift had been inactivated.....

Today, our “real world” deployable ground force for reinforcing NATO consists of very limited combat-ready brigades, perhaps a single division, leaving Putin in a position to threaten Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Poland at will and with total impunity, just as he did when annexing two Georgian provinces in 2009 and Crimea in 2014.

Worth adding is that at one point in time, U.S. military power in Europe could be rapidly deployed to the Middle East and proved a realistic deterrent to Russian maneuvering in that theater and on the African continent. No more, America......

If one were counting on successful diplomatic interaction among NATO nations and Russia, think again.

To believe that successful diplomacy in Europe can ever be conducted unless buttressed by overwhelming military power, with the full understanding by all participants that force will be used if diplomacy fails, would also be fiction. In this context, U.S. diplomacy addressing military issues today has no teeth — little more than a fable, and worthless versus Russian counterparts backed by powerful Russian forces.

NATO, emasculated by the absence of U.S. military power poses no great threat to Vladimir Putin.
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Old 6th May 2021, 08:00
  #319 (permalink)  
 
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its what they are forced into by the actions of an EU with a foreign policy and military capability with its own agenda.
Unlike the Americans in say Iraq or Afghanistan, eh? Far more recent (non-European) examples, which cost far more Commonwealth blood and treasure than Kosovo, Bosnia etc, which presumably you were happy to go along with.

Also, where was mighty Blighty in these 'recent' European conflicts? Front and centre, urging our European colleagues into action, or quietly waiting for the Americans to arrive?

Hypothetically, imagine an EU army sparking a conflict between Greece and Turkey which drags in Russia, and then invoking Article 5.
Greece and Turkey are more than capable of getting into a fight on their own, with or without the hypothetical involvement of an EU army (this scenario is right up there with 'Turkey is about to join the EU and unleash 70 million Turks onto our shores' of 2016 fame. Remember that chestnut?)

I'd argue that where we have had a platform with poor capability, performance or reliability, its been a eurofudge project.
There's also been some successes - Typhoon, MRTT (heaven forfend we'd all opted for the KC-46...). Its not like we've been immune to procurement f*ck-ups/bodges/delays, the QE carriers and Nimrod AEW being two recent (and hugely expensive) examples.

You're actually arguing for the US rather than anything to do with the UK or Commonwealth.
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Old 6th May 2021, 08:11
  #320 (permalink)  
 
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ORAC - a fair assessment. The US public would not support any military intervention in Europe (with the possible exception of air strikes), and rightly so IMO.

Also, the Russian threat is way overblown. Everybody harks on about Crimea whilst forgetting the fact the Russia 'lost' the rump of Ukraine, something which still clearly irks Putin. Its laboured efforts in Syria and Libya, and abandonment of esrtwhile allies such as Armenia says all you need to know.

Personally I think Russia ought to join the EU (Putin's regime is no worse than Orban's), to secure their economic future and provide a buttress against Chinese expansionism (and for LOLz, of course...)
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