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Old 29th Apr 2021, 02:25
  #261 (permalink)  
 
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If memory serves, the last time there was a European Army worthy of the name was in 1900, during the Chinese upheaval now called the 'Boxer Rebellion'.
Admittedly, most of the force was made up by large contingents from Japan and Russia, plus the US, but the rest of the troops were from the UK, France, Italy, Germany and Austria-Hungary, so a true European army.
By all accounts, this assemblage performed well militarily, disregarding the various atrocities and pillaging that took place.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 04:07
  #262 (permalink)  
 
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Saul,

To be fair, referring to europeans as eurotrash is not confined to an anonymous forum, I'd quite happily use the term in person.

I've worked with several European militaries and found the Estonians and Poles to be very professional, but I've also witnessed others that add nothing beyond and increased supply chain burden. You are correct that not all EU members are NATO members, though the majority that aren't have a policy of neutrality, so I am not sure how that adds military value. Of those that do reside under the safety blanket of NATO peace and security, several are completely ineffective from a military perspective mainly due to size - please don't tell me Luxembourg, Malta, Belgium or Portugal are going to contribute anything particularly tangible in terms of defence.

Any EU Army will be dependant on the French, and as we have seen during Macron's tenure, that is a lever for national influence. I've always found the German's too guilt ridden, and scared to be seen as dominant, to provide any leadership on defence matters, and the French still seem to blame the anglosphere for liberating them when the resistance had it in hand. Since Iraq, the Europeans have become increasingly anti-US (even before Trump) and now are equally anti-UK (or certainly the EU is). As soon as the EU army club is up and running, the French will seek to put distance between Europe and NATO. It will go wrong, and the US and UK will be expected to pick up the pieces.

You may not share my view, and that's fine. I wish you well; you'll have some awesome parades, but don't expect anyone West of Brest to start blowing bugles in any hurry when you're knee deep in Russians and the French are shrugging their shoulders.
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 05:29
  #263 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat
You use the figure of combined EU defence spending of 190b; 2% of EU GDP is 360b....
Sir, I really want to emphasize that only 21 out of 27 EU countries are actually members of NATO. You can't use either of those numbers when talking about countries that have both NATO and EU membership.

Regarding the spenditure (which seems to be your main concern): when Trump was ranting about the defence expenditure, he was going with numbers from years ago. Underneath I've attached the most recent defence spenditure estimates for 2020 within NATO countries. Every single NATO country has increased their budget, majority of them very significantly too. Some have more than doubled their spenditure. As of today, 10 countries are over the threshold, 5 countries are very close. In 2014 only 3 countries were over the threshold and 1 was very close (by close I mean within a two tenths of a percentage point). So the spenditure is picking up, and has picked up very well. Do you think there is a very sound reason to be so aggressive about the spenditure at this point since we all know that governmental budgets can't be shifted over night and change is significant?



Source: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2...020-104-en.pdf

Last edited by Beamr; 29th Apr 2021 at 05:45. Reason: source added
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Old 29th Apr 2021, 07:51
  #264 (permalink)  
 
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The same, tired and now very boring old tune. I thought (hoped?) this discussion would cease once the UK had left the EU, after all, what concern is it of ours now? Who cares what the European countries do now? Its up to them. I guess it keeps you warm at night, still raging on and on about this...

Personally I wouldn't give a stuff if they left NATO and went their own way. Actually it would be amusing to see some in America twist and turn over this, especially if the likes of Germany turned around and told them to leave Ramstein.

As for the Russian threat, I sincerely doubt they could trouble nothing more than the odd Baltic state (and what would/could NATO do about this? Not a lot IMO). They certainly wouldn't want to go up against the likes of Poland, especially given their laboured efforts in eastern Ukraine.
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 02:33
  #265 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat
Saul,

To be fair, referring to europeans as eurotrash is not confined to an anonymous forum, I'd quite happily use the term in person.

I've worked with several European militaries and found the Estonians and Poles to be very professional, but I've also witnessed others that add nothing beyond and increased supply chain burden. You are correct that not all EU members are NATO members, though the majority that aren't have a policy of neutrality, so I am not sure how that adds military value. Of those that do reside under the safety blanket of NATO peace and security, several are completely ineffective from a military perspective mainly due to size - please don't tell me Luxembourg, Malta, Belgium or Portugal are going to contribute anything particularly tangible in terms of defence.

Any EU Army will be dependant on the French, and as we have seen during Macron's tenure, that is a lever for national influence. I've always found the German's too guilt ridden, and scared to be seen as dominant, to provide any leadership on defence matters, and the French still seem to blame the anglosphere for liberating them when the resistance had it in hand. Since Iraq, the Europeans have become increasingly anti-US (even before Trump) and now are equally anti-UK (or certainly the EU is). As soon as the EU army club is up and running, the French will seek to put distance between Europe and NATO. It will go wrong, and the US and UK will be expected to pick up the pieces.

You may not share my view, and that's fine. I wish you well; you'll have some awesome parades, but don't expect anyone West of Brest to start blowing bugles in any hurry when you're knee deep in Russians and the French are shrugging their shoulders.
without realizing it you are actually mentioning many good reasons for a further integration of EU member state militaries. However, the last thing you will be seeing is a parade....

so you are actually calling Europeans Eurotrash in real life. I hope you are as proud as the Bulldog that is tattood on your breast.
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 07:28
  #266 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Sir, I really want to emphasize that only 21 out of 27 EU countries are actually members of NATO. You can't use either of those numbers when talking about countries that have both NATO and EU membership.

Regarding the spenditure (which seems to be your main concern): when Trump was ranting about the defence expenditure, he was going with numbers from years ago. Underneath I've attached the most recent defence spenditure estimates for 2020 within NATO countries. Every single NATO country has increased their budget, majority of them very significantly too. Some have more than doubled their spenditure. As of today, 10 countries are over the threshold, 5 countries are very close. In 2014 only 3 countries were over the threshold and 1 was very close (by close I mean within a two tenths of a percentage point). So the spenditure is picking up, and has picked up very well. Do you think there is a very sound reason to be so aggressive about the spenditure at this point since we all know that governmental budgets can't be shifted over night and change is significant?



Source: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2...020-104-en.pdf
One might observe that most nations' GDPs fell in 2020, so a pre-determined level of defence spending will represent a greater % of their overall expenditure. Although, as noted, the 2020 figures are estimates. How about a 2019 graph?

(Also of interest on that linked doc. is the graph showing the UK spends close to the least on personnel as a proportion of overall defence spending, 'beaten' only by Luxembourg.)
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 07:47
  #267 (permalink)  
 
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The UK spends most on BAe.................
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Old 30th Apr 2021, 09:12
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Originally Posted by Willard Whyte
How about a 2019 graph?
Very valid question so here you go. As we can see, the trend has been upwards on most countries already pre-COVID (exceptions are Croatia, Albania, Belgium). 9 countries above 2% threshold and 3 countries very close. Still very big change comparing to 2014.



source: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2...019-123-en.pdf

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Old 30th Apr 2021, 10:22
  #269 (permalink)  
 
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All due to Vladimir Vladimirovich
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Old 1st May 2021, 09:51
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Very valid question so here you go. As we can see, the trend has been upwards on most countries already pre-COVID (exceptions are Croatia, Albania, Belgium). 9 countries above 2% threshold and 3 countries very close. Still very big change comparing to 2014.



source: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2...019-123-en.pdf
So since 2014, 19 countries are still failing to fulfil their financial promises. Yet they want full protection that NATO affords them.


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Old 1st May 2021, 15:27
  #271 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The Nip
So since 2014, 19 countries are still failing to fulfil their financial promises. Yet they want full protection that NATO affords them.
Also interesting is that of those not pulling their weight 4, Germany, France, Italy, and Canada, are in the top 10 of the world's highest GDPs. A further 3, Spain, Netherlands, and Turkey, are in the top 20.

If those seven were to increase expenditure to the agreed upon 2% it would likely represent a significant boost to NATO's capabilities.
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Old 1st May 2021, 17:20
  #272 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Willard Whyte
Also interesting is that of those not pulling their weight 4, Germany, France, Italy, and Canada, are in the top 10 of the world's highest GDPs. A further 3, Spain, Netherlands, and Turkey, are in the top 20.

If those seven were to increase expenditure to the agreed upon 2% it would likely represent a significant boost to NATO's capabilities.
Perhaps these countries do not see enhanced NATO capabilities as worthwhile.
There is no logical basis for the 2% threshold afaik.
Plus as the late Lyndon B Johnson used to say, it is much better to have people inside the tent p**ing out than the other way around.
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Old 1st May 2021, 18:55
  #273 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Plus as the late Lyndon B Johnson used to say, it is much better to have people inside the tent p**ing out than the other way around.
I don't think that applies to NATO, for three reasons: 1) all NATO decisions are taken by consensus, so having more members 'in the tent' weakens its decision-making power; 2) each additional member state is another potential victim of an aggression which would force an Article V decision, a very risky thing indeed for the Alliance (especially in view of the first reason); 3) each additional member increases espionage risk and thereby drives down the amount and quality of information shared at Alliance level, to the detriment of other members.

Whatever each member brings to the Alliance has to be worth the increase in collective risk. There's clearly some benefit from having states with the political clout of France, Germany and Turkey on board. Others will bring territorial or basing advantages. No doubt these countries price these factors into their calculations. The rest need to pay their way: it's no surprise the Baltic states all meet the 2%!
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Old 2nd May 2021, 07:50
  #274 (permalink)  
 
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The easiest answer to hat is to take a map of Europe and colour in those who aren't paying the 2% (or near it) - makes it a difficult place to defend if you throw the lagards out doesn't it?

And, after all as W Germany used to say "we provide the battlefield for free"
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Old 2nd May 2021, 10:03
  #275 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by usedtobeATC
They ****** up your brains with the Russian threat, but in fact the danger comes from NATO as under Napoleon or Hitler. Have you forgotten what the Russian winter or Siberia is? Sow the wind and reap the whirlwind.
WHAT on earth does that mean?

Are you saying that we are under threat from NATO? We ARE NATO!!!!!

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Old 2nd May 2021, 13:59
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Perhaps these countries do not see enhanced NATO capabilities as worthwhile.
There is no logical basis for the 2% threshold afaik.
Plus as the late Lyndon B Johnson used to say, it is much better to have people inside the tent p**ing out than the other way around.
Then why did they agree to it in 2014? What is the point in having an agreement, that you don’t think is worthwhile? Don’t they have the courage of their convictions to be honest?
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Old 2nd May 2021, 16:38
  #277 (permalink)  
 
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"What is the point in having an agreement, that you don’t think is worthwhile? "

you obviously haven't worked with many politicians.
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Old 2nd May 2021, 16:41
  #278 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by usedtobeATC
NATO was created not by Europe, but by America, and the brighter it burns here, the more America will rejoice. Who bombed Yugoslavia in 1999? Maybe Russia or France or England or someone else?
Everyone has his own opinion and NATO (USA) has it`s own too. In order to increase military spending, it is necessary that the society itself asks for this. That's why two James Bonds were invented (Petrov and Bashirov), which intimidated all of Europe. I wonder what will happen if the Red Army comes there?
So we forget the Berlin Crisis, the Berlin Wall, Ukraine, Czechoslovakia,...................... they're all figments of my imagination I guess
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Old 2nd May 2021, 21:31
  #279 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by usedtobeATC
NATO was created not by Europe, but by America, and the brighter it burns here, the more America will rejoice. Who bombed Yugoslavia in 1999? Maybe Russia or France or England or someone else?
Everyone has his own opinion and NATO (USA) has it`s own too. In order to increase military spending, it is necessary that the society itself asks for this. That's why two James Bonds were invented (Petrov and Bashirov), which intimidated all of Europe. I wonder what will happen if the Red Army comes there?
Sooo...what are you trying to say?
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Old 3rd May 2021, 03:51
  #280 (permalink)  
 
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Crimea is the start of Russian expansion. Georgia is the model for how they will take over all the previous USSR vassal states. If European governments seriously think that the US will draw a line in the sand and spend the kind of blood and treasure it will take to defend them they are seriously deluded.

Putin rightly sees weakness in Western Europe and will take as much advantage as those Western European states will let him. As currently envisioned the “European Army” has no credibility as a check on Russian expansionism.
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