Trouble in Saudi Arabia?

[ORAC]

An Iranian source, so perhaps mainly propaganda, seeing as they are fighting a proxy war in Yemen. However, the best propaganda is based on a grain of truth - so even if only a portion is true, things could get interesting.

Farsnews

The Palestinian daily, al-Manar, quoted informed sources as saying that many members of the royal family have fled Saudi Arabia to other countries after increased internal differences and rivalries in the House of Saud and their policies in the region. A large number of the royal family members believe that their lives are at stake and could be assassinated any moment. According to the report, a number of these princes and princesses aren’t allowed to leave the country and are still in Saudi Arabia under the supervision of the security bodies. Meantime, the fear is not confined to Saudi Arabia and certain Qatari and UAE princes and princesses have also left their countries.

The report came after a US-based think-tank raised the possibility that Saudi King Salman may leave the power in favor of his son Muhammad bin Salman who is now the deputy crown prince and defense minister. "Increasingly, the kingdom's crucial decisionmaker is seen as thirty-one-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (aka MbS) rather than eighty-year-old King Salman or fifty-seven-year-old Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef (aka MbN). The king, described by the New York Times as suffering from "memory lapses," is believed to favor MbS, the eldest son of his favorite wife, as his successor," the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote in November. .......

Saudi Sources revealed in late June that Saudi Arabia’s young deputy crown prince is being advised by the UAE on how he can win backing from the US and ascend to the throne by the end of the year. Two "well-placed Saudi sources" have said that de facto UAE ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan is advising Mohammed on a two-pronged strategy to become Washington's preferred choice as the next Saudi ruler. The first Saudi source said bin Zayed has told bin Salman that he must “end the rule of Wahhabism” if he wants to be accepted by the Americans. Wahhabism is the radical ideology dominating Saudi Arabia which has inspired Takfiri groups such as ISIL and al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front to wreak havoc in the Middle East. Bin Zayed has also told bin Salman that he must open a “strong channel of communication” with Israel if he is to be Washington’s preferred candidate to be king.......

According to the report, bin Salman would seek to fundamentally change the role of religion in the kingdom on bin Zayed's advice. One of the two Saudi sources said that bin Salman plans to cancel the Council of Senior Scholars, which is the kingdom's highest religious body, and stop all activities that serve Wahhabism. “The aim will be for bin Salman to be hailed as a hero by the press, Congress, and academics, so that the US administration is forced to follow.” Such a plan is highly risky given the influence of religious bodies in the kingdom and could lead to a serious showdown. A Saudi source told Middle-East Eye on June 20 that bin Salman had secretly carved out a plan to severely curb the influence of Wahhabism, the strict interpretation of Islam followed in Saudi Arabia, by arresting clerics and shutting down institutions. A Saudi expert who asked not to be identified told NBC that Riyadh was at such a critical juncture that either "it's bin Salman or it's ISIL group."

The second strategy advised by bin Zayed to win Washington’s backing was developing close relations with Israel. Israel has covert ties with Arab states despite their claims that they would normalize relations with Tel Aviv only when it reaches a deal with the Palestinians. In April, the Jerusalem Post wrote that “rather than being isolated, Israel is being incorporated into the Saudi-led orbit,” citing the opening of a mission in Abu Dhabi and increasing contacts in the Persian Gulf States.......

Bin Nayef may be the first in line to throne but his quietness, and bin Salman’s prominence, has led many to conclude the experienced 56-year-old's power is waning. During bin Salman’s recent visit to the US, where he met President Barack Obama, a report emerged that American intelligence officers believed the current Saudi ruler King Salman and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef suffer from ill health.......... The visit to the US by Saudi Arabia’s young deputy crown prince raised speculation that his superiors have been seriously ill and being pushed out of the kingdom’s political scene......... Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy also said that bin Salman is "notionally number three in the hierarchy, but effectively he's number one" because the 80-year-old king prefers that his son take over the kingdom.......

Bin Salman has been awarded a staggering amount of power since he was named deputy crown prince last April. He also serves as the defense minister, heading up the kingdom’s war in Yemen and Syria policy, and is pushing through ambitious economic reforms that aim to privatize part of the national oil giant Aramco and lessen Riyadh’s dependence on oil. By official accounts, his Washington trip was a feat, despite eyebrows being raised about bin Salman meeting with Obama, a rare honor usually reserved for heads of state.

Earlier in June this year, Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud health state drastically deteriorated with visitors barred from seeing the ageing monarch, an informed source said. Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman issued orders to the Saudi court banning any manner of meeting with the king due to his "brain damage", Alwaqt reported on June 2. The Palestinian Manar online newspaper also on the same day quoted an informed saying that the denial of visiting rights encompasses all members of the royal family and foreign dignitaries. The source noted that foreign embassies, especially that of the US, are diligently tracking Salman’s health and reporting back to their countries.

Over the recent months King Salman has been trying to disguise a teleprompter he uses to be able to make coherent sentences when holding talks with foreign dignitaries. Foreign leaders visiting the Saudi regime ruler have noticed that there is a large flower display positioned just in front of where the 80-year-old monarch sits. On closer investigation, the visitors realized that the purpose of the flowers is to conceal a computer which acts as a teleprompter, enabling the King to appear capable of carrying on a coherent conversation about important issues. Sources close to the Saudi monarchy say the 80 year old King Salman is suffering from dementia, a general term for a decline in mental ability severe enough to interfere with daily life. Reports say the octogenarian monarch suffers from periodic blackouts and inability to speak.......

There has been mounting discontent at the Saudi king's decisions, including his controversial appointments, support for Takfiri terrorists in Syria and Iraq, the brutal and costly war against impoverished Yemen, and the execution of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

Unsurprisingly, Prince Salman's meteoric rise has caused ripples, and has antagonized some other members of the vast royal House of Saud who resent being shunted aside by the younger generation. Analytical websites had predicted early this year that Muhammad bin Salman would use the kingdom's army which is under his control to topple Muhammad bin Nayef to prevent his ascending to the throne. "That Muhammad bin Salman controls the Saudi army is a valuable advantage for him because in case Crown Prince Muhammad bin Nayef becomes a king, Muhammad bin Salman can use the army to topple him," the Russian-language 'Landscape of the New East' wrote.

On January 19, a prominent Saudi media activist revealed that the Crown Prince, Bin Nayef, had held secret talks with the country's tribal leaders to heighten internal conflicts and prevent empowerment of Muhammad bin Salman. "After news reports said that the Saudi king has decided to leave the power to his son, the Saudi crown prince has held some meetings with the tribal leaders to destabilize domestic conditions in Saudi Arabia," the activist who called for anonymity for security reasons told FNA.Noting that the details of these meetings were not known, he said Muhammad bin Nayef saw himself entitled to the throne, and he, thus, sought to spark internal problems and insecurity with the help of certain tribes to stir crisis and prevent the deputy crown prince, Muhammad bin Salman, from ascending to the throne.

Reports in August 2015 had informed that the Saudi crown prince had enhanced security arrangements for fear of assassination plots of rival princes in the royal family. "Muhammad bin Nayef has changed the venues of his daily tasks, procedures and itinerary of his visits and appointments, his team of bodyguards and their methods to decrease the danger to minimum levels," Mujtahid wrote in his tweets at the time. Noting that the Saudi crown prince used helicopter flights for most of his visits to different places, he said, "Tens of armed vehicles and over 80 security forces always accompany him during his visits."

Mujtahid said that Muhammad bin Nayef rarely stayed in his palaces and used his father's palace on an island in the Red Sea behind fortified security measures and large numbers of security forces there. "He also spends a lot of time to eavesdrop the phone calls of the ruling family members," the Saudi activist revealed........

[air pig]

Makes interesting reading and if only 1% is true then the US shale producers should start pumping for all they are worth and if it destabilises Wahhabism then that is to the good.

[Coochycool]

Air Pig

If there was a Like button on this forum I would duly press it

[Basil]

if it destabilises Wahhabism then that is to the good.

Ah, but would it? Al Saud aren't generally Wahhabis and the religious conservatives who are probably consider observance more important than money.

[MPN11]

Kingdom of Saud in the 21at Century woukd be a good thing.

watching with interest.

[glad rag]

One can only hope.

[noflynomore]

But a Kingdom of Saud in a state of civil war will bring the rest of the Mid East down with it, and that is not good for anyone in the entire world...

[MPN11]

If, as I read it, the latest Mohammed [# 47,892,376,201] has control of the Armed Forces, that would help stability. And how many Saudis are actually enthusiastic Wahabbis?

[air pig]

Wahhabism, is a brand of fundamental Islam, suppress all other forms when given the chance and more importantly exports it throughout the world. Many mosques have Wahabbi funding therefore indoctrination.

[onetrack]

One must never forget that Saudi Arabia is a dictatorial Kingdom/State, formed via brutal terrorism - and it has always supported various forms of terrorism that ensure the ruling group stays in power.

Any moves by Saudi Arabia to "fight Islamic terrorism" means only one thing - Saudi Arabia is quite prepared to fight any form of domineering Islamic terrorism that might threaten its own existence - while it is happy to support other forms of domineering and conquering Islam, that ensures the current group of Saudi Royals stay in power.

I've never forgotten the opinion of most WW2 veterans who had regular contact with the Arabs - "friends by day, foes by night". We in the West would do well to remember this at all times.

Saudi Arabia forms Muslim anti-terrorism coalition

[O-P]

air pig

Catholicism, is a brand of fundamental Christianity, it suppress all other forms, when given the chance, and, more importantly, exports it throughout the world. Many churches have Catholic funding, therefore indoctrination.

Which has been more successful, and killed more??

Not the real O-P...His Brother.

[O-P]

I posted the above on behalf of my brother, known to you as O-P.

He always looked at both sides of the story...but rarely became judgmental, " I just don't have all the facts" was his best line.

He died late last year, after a short, but sadly very painful illness. He died with a glass of scotch in one hand a ciggie in the other.

He loved life, he loved his family and friends but accepted death with grace.

FINAL POST.

[msbbarratt]

I have heard it said of Saudi Arabia that all the money is in the East and all the religion is in the West. Not the healthiest of situations. There's actually quite a lot of poor people over there. Plus a lot of the nasty types who are slowly being forced out of Iraq and Syria will find their way home to, well, guess where...

As noflynomore put it, civil war in Saudi is something for us all to deeply fear. Let us fervently hope that it doesn't come to that.

The problem I foresee is that these days the USA has much more energy independence than a couple of decades ago, and has an incoming administration whose response to a crisis in Saudi may very well be "who cares" (but could equally be the complete opposite). If the USA failed to respond Russia (having no qualms about this kind of thing) would probably move faster than anyone else, et voila Putin controls by proxy the rest of the world's energy supply.

Still, if that happens then the US may as well withdraw from Diego Garcia (after all they'd not be needing it anymore), and then the former residents could be allowed to return home.

[A_Van]

To hell with their oil. "Technology rules" and US can easily compensate all their needs with their "shale stuff". Overconcerns about Russia's potential control of energy suppliers are obviously wrong. Look at the list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...oil_production
Among the first dozen it is only Venezuela (with a quite unstable regime) in the 11th place....

The issue with SA (and US and UK on the other side) is that it is one of the largest weapons importer.
As I wrote several times in other topics, IMHO both the West and Russia are doing wrong things by making friends with various questionable (if not monstrous) regimes in the arab/muslim world. And SA is in the top of this list. Thus it is especially hypocritical when western "democracies" are "embracing" the folks that can publicly and physically punish a woman for dressing not properly in the street. Or killing some family members just because there are too many of them as candidates for the throne.
I do not like the Russian policy in that part of the world either, but at least they always try to deal with more secular regimes.

[ORAC]

Hence being a major arms supplier and trader - plus present ally in Syria - with Iran?

[Basil]

Originally Posted by O-P

I posted the above on behalf of my brother, known to you as O-P.

He always looked at both sides of the story...but rarely became judgmental, " I just don't have all the facts" was his best line.

He died late last year, after a short, but sadly very painful illness. He died with a glass of scotch in one hand a ciggie in the other.

He loved life, he loved his family and friends but accepted death with grace.

FINAL POST.

O-P RIP

Thank you, members sometimes just disappear with no explanation.

[Fonsini]

Instability and in-fighting in the Middle East ?

Well it was bound to happen sooner or later.