India vs Pakistan

[ORAC]

Hotting up.....

18th Sept: India calls Pakistan a 'terrorist state' as 17 soldiers die in Kashmir



29th Sept: India Says It Hit Pakistan Terror Camps After Attack on Army

India-Pakistan Conflict Update: Kashmir Death Toll Climbs As Soldiers On Both Sides Killed In Border Clash



30th Sept: Pakistan military captures 1 Indian soldier: Report

"ISLAMABAD: Pakistan military today claimed that it has captured an Indian army soldier and killed eight others in retaliation to India's firing at the first line of defence at the Line of Control (LoC) at Tatta Pani, a media report said."

India-Pakistan Conflict Update: Border Villages Evacuated By India As Tensions Escalate

"As tensions escalate between longtime adversaries — India and Pakistan — the former has issued orders to evacuate all villages up to 10 kilometers (about 6 miles) from the international border in the Indian state of Punjab, moving thousands of people into temporary shelter camps."

[Lonewolf_50]

Is this 1971 all over again, or another flare up of poking each other in the eye?

[Wander00]

1948 isn't it

[Lonewolf_50]

Most recent war was 1971, when East Pakistan emerged as Bangladesh when all was said and done. Pakistan and India had a go at each other. Only lasted a few weeks, but they've been poking each other in the eye over Kashmir (and much else) since then with some frequency.

[Heathrow Harry]

It suits some people on both sides to keep turning up the temperature... but they both have H-bombs so lets hope it doesn't boil over.................

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry

It suits some people on both sides to keep turning up the temperature... but they both have H-bombs so lets hope it doesn't boil over.................

Yeah. A 2010 article in Scientific American (now behind a pay wall, but this link to Rutgers.edu should work) summarized a study at Rutgers University on what happens of Pakistan and India hit each other with 50 nukes each. While they will suffer serious casualties, the longer term effect of the radiation and dust cloud released will influence agriculture all over the world for some years after. Estimates of up to 1 billion dying world wide, but do we really want to find out if those folks with the ten pound brains are right? No.

[ORAC]

A-bombs yes, H-bombs, no; or at least no claims or evidence of such.

[Heathrow Harry]

If it goes hot I doubt the difference will be of any real importance..................... lot of innocent people in both countries.......

[KPax]

Not a great time for the Red Arrows to be going to Pakistan.

[Fonsini]

It's never a great time for anyone to go to Pakistan.

[MSOCS]

Damn, I thought this was going to be about Cricket.

[ORAC]

Well we looking at the possibility of ashes.....

[KenV]

While they will suffer serious casualties, the longer term effect of the radiation and dust cloud released will influence agriculture all over the world for some years after. Estimates of up to 1 billion dying world wide.

Doesn't a good sized volcanic eruption send an equal (or greater) volume of dust/ash into the atmosphere? We've had a number of those in the past few decades and while the weather was disrupted in some areas, there were no widespread crop failures. Is this another one of those alarmist predictions?

[GlobalNav]

Originally Posted by KenV

Doesn't a good sized volcanic eruption send an equal (or greater) volume of dust/ash into the atmosphere? We've had a number of those in the past few decades and while the weather was disrupted in some areas, there were no widespread crop failures. Is this another one of those alarmist predictions?

Of course- nuclear fallout? - no problem. Another myth from climate changers.

[megan]

Perhaps they could just introduce handbags at 50 paces into the ceremony, save a lot of trouble.



John Cleese, rumbled, we know where you got the walk.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by KenV

Doesn't a good sized volcanic eruption send an equal (or greater) volume of dust/ash into the atmosphere? We've had a number of those in the past few decades and while the weather was disrupted in some areas, there were no widespread crop failures. Is this another one of those alarmist predictions?

Ken, I suggest you read the whole article. It's pretty well written, even though the authors are rabid "no nukes" people. They used volcano eruption effects, and volume, as a comparison and found that the debris from the nukes were orders of magnitude larger. That's how their models arrived at some of the "nuclear winter" similarities.

I am not sure how good their precipitation models are, as the report is from 2010 and people have kept working on the climate models due to the obvious imperfections in those. The damage to the ozone is another point that will have a harsh effect on agriculture.

The larger point: the damage if the nuclear exchange happens locally is that the impact is global, and non trivial. They aren't saying the end of the human race, but massive disruption in agricultural production. The large body of people at marginal food access are going to be the ones who suffer the soonest.

[AtomKraft]

Well, India could make full use of a little 'Global Winter'- its too damn hot here!

Mind you, sounds like the temp would be going up somewhat, before coming down....

The other problem here is that there's too many people....

[tlightb]

Mount Tambora.

Ref big blasts search on Mount Tambora. Fired up in 1815 and caused a few problems around the world.

[MPN11]

Watching "Ghandi" on TV right now ... wouldn't it have been nice if Partition hadn't happened?

"Oh, lets divide it all up on religious lines, and then spend a few decades killing each other ... you know it makes sense in the long run."

No prospect of either side behaving like adults in my lifetime, I fear.

[Heathrow Harry]

too many politicians involved - Nehru & Jinna bear most of the blame