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Yemen

Old 9th Feb 2015, 11:52
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Yemen

Saudi and the Gulf States look like they're getting a bit hemmed in on all side. That "Shia Crescent" is starting too look more like a noose....

Yemen falls to Iran in regional proxy war

The situation in “Yemen is already like Syria,” Tel Aviv University researcher tells the 'Post.'

The toppling of the Yemeni government by Iranian backed Shi’ite Houthis has upped the ante in the regional sectarian Sunni-Shi’ite struggle. Yemen is perfectly set to become a sectarian war that will see millions more in foreign funds transferred to various proxy forces in the country, as in the case of the ongoing civil war in Syria.

Sunni states are likely to dramatically increase support for their brothers in the country, not holding back funds from jihadists and other Islamists, just as has been done in Syria. Iran and its allies in the region are not going to sit by either.

And then there is the question of the world superpowers, which we can expect will intervene as they have in Syria, with the US increasingly favoring the Shi’ite axis, led by Iran, as it does not want to ruin ongoing nuclear negotiations with the country. It also seeks to use Iran to counter Sunni jihadists such as Islamic State and al-Qaida. Recent reports reveal that the US is cooperating with the Houthis to target al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on Sunday for a peaceful transition of power in Yemen after the country’s dominant Houthi movement dissolved parliament on Friday. “The situation is very, very seriously deteriorating with the Houthis taking power and making this government vacuum in power. There must be a restoration of the legitimacy of president [Abd Rabbuh Mansur] Hadi,” he said.

The Gulf Cooperation Council has accused Shi’ite Houthi rebels of staging a coup in Yemen after they announced they were dissolving parliament and forming a new government, Kuwait’s official news agency said on Saturday. The opposition of the GCC, a six-nation bloc comprising energy-rich Gulf states, may signal growing isolation for the impoverished Yemen and reflects the hostility of its Sunni- majority neighbors toward the Iranian-backed Houthis. “This Houthi coup is a dangerous escalation which we reject and is unacceptable. It totally contradicts the spirit of pluralism and coexistence which Yemen has known,” the GCC was quoted as saying by KUNA news agency.

The situation in “Yemen is already like Syria,” Uzi Rabi, a Yemen expert and director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Tel Aviv University, told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday. “Yemen is a failed state, and this was even before the 2011 Arab uprisings,” said Rabi, adding that the Houthi coup is a “watershed event.”

Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the Middle East will need a long time to recover from the current strife and return to how it once was, he explained. Sunni al-Qaida Islamists are active and based in the south; Zaidi Houthis from the north have moved into Sanaa; there are a number of armed private citizens; and then there is an assortment of tribes, with each contemplating where its interests lie, said Rabi. This situation is a theater where the Sunni-Shi’ite battle is being played out in the region, with the Saudis on one side and the Iranians on the other, he continued, adding that the country also is a gateway to Africa and the Islamist terror there.

Iran sees itself as the rising power in the region, Rabi told the Post in December, adding that an Iranian Revolutionary Guard official was quoted as saying that the Islamic Republic of Iran now controls four Middle Eastern capitals: Sanaa, Beirut, Baghdad and Damascus. The conflict in Yemen “won’t end any time soon,” Rabi concluded.

David Andrew Weinberg, a specialist on Gulf affairs and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Post that the Gulf monarchies are terrified about what is going on in Yemen and at the thought of directly intervening militarily there. “Saudi Arabia tried going to war with the Houthis in 2009, and they got clobbered,” said Weinberg, noting that “well over 100 Saudi soldiers were killed, and the debacle ruined the career of Khaled bin Sultan, a Saudi prince who had been one of the kingdom’s top security chiefs at the time but is now largely out of the picture.”

The last thing King Salman wants is to “stake his legacy and authority on a direct military intervention in the quagmire of Yemen,” he said, adding that AQAP and the Houthis are stronger now than they were the last time the Saudis got involved. The Saudis, who have already cut off aid to the Yemeni government, are going to look for other ways besides military action to change the situation there, such as by supporting proxies, asserted Weinberg.

He speculated that the Gulf states may even seek a solution that involves redividing Yemen into north and south, since the Houthis are much weaker in the south, but this also has its disadvantages.

“The Gulf monarchies were distracted by Iraq and Islamic State when the Houthis launched their offensive this summer, and then they were focused on resolving their internal spat with Qatar during the fall. In the meantime, much of Yemen fell to Iranian-backed radicals who hate the Gulf states, hate America, and explicitly hate not just Israel but specifically Jews as well. Yemen is bad, bad news these days,” said Weinberg.
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Old 9th Feb 2015, 13:15
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..and I thought Yemen was a Geordie agreeing with me.
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Old 9th Feb 2015, 13:44
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I don't care what anyone says but I am not going back to Khormaksar!
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Old 9th Feb 2015, 14:09
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I knew we shouldn't have left!
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Old 9th Feb 2015, 15:03
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I wanted to stay but they took my toys away.
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Old 9th Feb 2015, 15:21
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If we'd stayed at Khormaksar even more Brits would be dead for no good reason.
Herod, 78 Sqn Khormaksar. May - Nov '67
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Old 9th Feb 2015, 16:09
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The toppling of the Yemeni government by Iranian backed Shi’ite Houthis has upped the ante in the regional sectarian Sunni-Shi’ite struggle. Yemen is perfectly set to become a sectarian war that will see millions more in foreign funds transferred to various proxy forces in the country, as in the case of the ongoing civil war in Syria.
They should be free to kill one another until they are sick of it.
“Yemen is a failed state, and this was even before the 2011 Arab uprisings,” said Rabi, adding that the Houthi coup is a “watershed event.”
Rabi's nickname in college was MOTO.
“Saudi Arabia tried going to war with the Houthis in 2009, and they got clobbered,” said Weinberg, noting that “well over 100 Saudi soldiers were killed, and the debacle ruined the career of Khaled bin Sultan, a Saudi prince who had been one of the kingdom’s top security chiefs at the time but is now largely out of the picture.”
The Saudis have the money to do this by proxy. There seems to be no shortage of young men who want to go overseas and kill infidels.
We saw them in Afghanistan.
We saw them in Iraq.
We saw them in Libya
We saw them in Syria.
We'll see them in Yemen (if they aren't there already).

Hmm, doesn't this all smell very familiar? All of these young men who want to go overseas and kill infidels and make their names ... sounds like a Crusade without a cross. (Crux being the Latin root word of that term).

Among Islam's adherents, the Crescent as the more typical symbol.
Why don't the PTB of the Muslim world call this what it is, and call on these young men to go on the Crescade? (Not sure how that would scan in Arabic, but I am making a play on words in English here ... )

They are already doing this, just not quite as overtly as the Popes used to.
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Old 9th Feb 2015, 16:19
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Yemen is not that simple boys - it has a lot of tribes and they all like to get involved - bit like Afghanistan

Can't see the southerners (ie Aden area) being very happy about this lot from the far north - and the Saudis still pull a lot of strings in the country

best to stay out of it - they are quite happy fighting each other

The average Yemeni makes the NRA in the States look like Sunday School teachers so there's no need to provide any support to any side
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Old 9th Feb 2015, 16:26
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Harry on a few counts dead right and on others not so right.
Yemen is not that simple boys - it has a lot of tribes and they all like to get involved - bit like Afghanistan
If you want an analogy, see the Brits and French in the New World, 1600's-1780's, and the various tribes they allied with for their own ends. These tribes already quarreled with each other extensively.
Can't see the southerners (ie Aden area) being very happy about this lot
from the far north - and the Saudis still pull a lot of strings in the country
Indeed. And various interests within Saudi provide funds to their favorite clients.
best to stay out of it - they are quite happy fighting each other
Aye, per my first point.
The average Yemeni makes the NRA in the States look like Sunday School teachers so there's no need to provide any support to any side
Pretty stupid statement, given that I don't think you grasp what the NRA actually does. (You might be surprised at how many Sunday School teachers are also NRA members ... I can name you a dozen in my own parish, male and female). However, I'll agree with you that the locals are well armed for their own reasons, and not likely to stop being so any time soon.

What a lot of folks in Yemen don't have is money. Money is what keeps fights going for extended periods of time. As above, various players from outside will keep feeding money to their favorite clients.

If by "we" you mean the US and the Brits, I will tend to agree. There are enough interested players to pump money into that fight to make it unnecessary for us to do so. It will keep going for quite some time unless I miss my guess badly.
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Old 9th Feb 2015, 16:31
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I know ALL about the NRA Wolf - we just would never agree on it

But the Yemenis one of those places where external cash (altho always welcome) is not a real driver - it is Family, Village, tribe & country.... and religion a long way after that

As they are all armed they just need to get together and you have a significant force. Generally speaking outsiders who have tried to meddle have regretted it

Tho' TBH I've always found them very pleasant people - but I've never been on the wrong side of them
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Old 9th Feb 2015, 16:50
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Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry
I know ALL about the NRA Wolf - we just would never agree on it
We'll agree to let that fade off into the off topic realm where it belongs.
But the Yemenis one of those places where external cash (altho always welcome) is not a real driver - it is Family, Village, tribe & country ... and religion a long way after that
Agree with "not a driver" but maybe it's a key enabler for sustained action.
As they are all armed they just need to get together and you have a significant force. Generally speaking outsiders who have tried to meddle have regretted it
As you may know, in fighting & political operations, scaling up from local tribe (platoon-company) sized operations to larger coordinated operations is messy, non linear, and often makes as much trouble as it does progress. Sometimes, money helps lessen the friction, other times no amount of money can help.
Tho' TBH I've always found them very pleasant people - but I've never been on the wrong side of them
So are Sunday School teachers. (At least here in Texas).
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Old 10th Feb 2015, 15:04
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my Sunday School teachers were scarey...................
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Old 10th Feb 2015, 15:59
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I went through Sana'a in the 70's and found the locals friendly, especially in the market where one did some shopping - they wanted my trade!

Apart from admiring the architecture, whilst there I picked up a some Maria Theresa Thalers. ISTR that at the time Thalers were legal tender in Yemen and in the market enterprising stall-holders had silver-soldered bits of cut off coiled-spring curtain track (as used to hang curtains on kitchen doors) to the top of the Thaler as a loop through which to thread a neck chain.

The one shown in my photo makes a chunky necklace which my wife wears occasionally.


Thalers bearing the date 1780 are not worth much, too many were made including many made by the London Mint.

As I mentioned elsewhere Maria Theresa thalers bearing the date 1780 are a "protected coin" for the purposes of Part II of the UK's Forgery and Counterfeiting Act 1981. This Act makes counterfeiting legal as long as it's done by the government!
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Old 10th Feb 2015, 19:37
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1780 is the most common date found on Maria Theresa silver thalers but if there is an X after the date it shows it was struck in London! The Arabs wanted thalers so that's what they got. When I was in Aden the administration tried to introduce the 'Federation dollar' to replace it. To say that was an unpopular move would be seriously understating the case. At least one Political Officer was killed because of its attempted introduction.
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Old 10th Feb 2015, 19:50
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Hmm, doesn't this all smell very familiar? All of these young men who want to go overseas and kill infidels and make their names ... sounds like a Crusade without a cross. (Crux being the Latin root word of that term).
Sounds like boys being boys to me. A particular percentage trying to find some cause. Their just out on the "three or so" standard deviation groups in their passion.

The one standard deviation groups usually have less extreme causes, like how often you can get laid, get pissed, riot at out of control parties, lay rubber in front of peoples houses in the middle of the night.

On the opposite side of the distribution are the ones trying to save the whales, save the sharks, save the forest, save the cockroach.
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Old 10th Feb 2015, 19:54
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Warmtoast,
Mrs T went to Yemen in 2000 as a TV producer for BBC News for the trial of those 10 idiots from Birmingham who tried to join AQ and got caught.
She still raves about the place - said Sana'a was amazing; like something out of Arabian nights.
We have a ceremonial Yemeni curved dagger at home that she brought back.
I think that's one of the saddest things about the arc of instability.
All of these wonderful countries, with fascinating cultures that gave us things like algebra and astronomy are now off limits to westerners.
Unless they're driving something pointy.
A tragedy.
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Old 10th Feb 2015, 21:27
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Why don't the PTB of the Muslim world call this what it is, and call on these young men to go on the Crescade? (Not sure how that would scan in Arabic, but I am making a play on words in English here ... )
perhaps....jihad.
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Old 11th Feb 2015, 01:38
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So, what's the odds on Yemen splitting again into North & South ...?
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Old 11th Feb 2015, 18:36
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not high - they'd rather fight each other for the whole country TBH
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Old 11th Feb 2015, 19:12
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All of these wonderful countries, with fascinating cultures that gave us things like algebra and astronomy are now off limits to westerners.
actually came from all points East, the Hindu Veda etc. just Arab merchants doing their trade between East and west - very little originating in the middle.

History of the Arabic numbering system
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