UK Maritime Patrol Aircraft - An Urgent Requirement

[LowObservable]

CC - That's sad. It implies that UK can't manage itself so has to be tied to someone else's plans.

Although, considering that the UK defense budget is 10 x Sweden's and the RAF will be lucky to have 2 x the fighters in the 2020s...

[betty swallox]

GalleyTeapot

You have to start somewhere...

[ColdCollation]

LO - what we don't seem to do well, other than for political immovables such as CVF, is guard against short-termism.

If we could find a way of guarding against that, great. Unfortunately, political opportunism and (a lack of) money talks.

[seadrills]

Originally Posted by Roland Pulfrew

Why does it have to be military?

You are fishing aren't you? That's not a serious question, is it?

Simply because no civvie companies do long range deep water ASW, even if they might do some medium range above surface surveillance.

But most importantly, the UK isn't in the game of using mercenaries to do the Finish part of Find, Fix AND Finish! (Is that the latest doctrine term or am I out of date again?).

Is that the only reason the UK needs an MPA? For long range ASW?

Then there is the reason we don't have any.

The UK currently employs civilian aviation companies to patrol the waters off our islands. Border patrol, customs, fishery protection and oil spill response are all tasks undertaken by civilians... And they do a great job of it... And cheaply.

[Shack37]

seadrills

Is that the only reason the UK needs an MPA? For long range ASW?
Then there is the reason we don't have any.

If you´re expecting someone to come on here and answer your question, you´ll have a long wait I think.

[Davef68]

Would the UK need a P-8 OCU for potentially one squadron and 8 airframes? Could we use the USN training and just do local conversion training in the UK?

What are the Aussies doing?

[Phoney Tony]

Training enough crews to man 8 ac (1.5 crews per ac is prob about right) in US would be very expensive. Training the RAF RJ crews cost far more than expected. Also is there capacity in the US.

To have WSOp in place we need to recruit them now to be ready for 2016.

I suspect there are enough pilots holding the system and we could quickly increase the through put if required.

There is no RAF WSO training system and I suspect we do not enough to man the new MPA fleet.

[Pontius Navigator]

Dave, there are models.

C17 would appear to be the closest to the current situation.

The E3 also, especially regarding simulator and software especially as mission simulation would form an integral part of operational training. Initially there was a training flight, then that flight spawned a reserve sqn before reversion to a training flight.

[Party Animal]

To have WSOp in place we need to recruit them now to be ready for 2016.

Not sure where you got 2016 from? At the very best, I would have thought back end of 2018 for some form of limited IOC.

Even then and regardless of whether it is light and/or dark blue down the back, the 'We find needles in haystacks' advert will need to be posted in the Sun as soon as the paperwork is signed off.

[RandomBlah]

Gentlemen.

You may want to look at the "recruiting now" section of the RAF Careers website, particularly the reference to tracking submarines under the Wsop category. The recruitment campaign has already started.

[Roland Pulfrew]

The UK currently employs civilian aviation companies to patrol the waters off our islands. Border patrol, customs, fishery protection and oil spill response are all tasks undertaken by civilians

Excellent - so that is the short-medium range CIVILIAN requirement covered - now all we need to cover is the MILITARY (and possibly long-range civilian) requirement. That includes finding, fixing and FINISHing potential targets (including submarines). Globally. Something that the civvies cannot and do not do.

For long range ASW? Then there is the reason we don't have any.

Really? And your experise in being able to comment on that is.....? You have obviously missed the global proliferation of submarines then.


Random Blah. If you mean:

You’ll use specialist skills like radar surveillance and submarine tracking as one of the aircrew, as well as helping transport passengers and freight on operations.

What odds would you give me on that NOT having been updated since we deleted MR2/MRA4???

[Biggus]

It's approximately 280 days until the next UK general election, let alone 50 odd days until the Scottish Independence referendum. Against this political background I would suggest an MPA buy/lease either has to happen NOW, or it will have stormy political seas to navigate very soon.

A "yes" vote in the Scottish referendum in September is likely to create chaos in MOD (and indeed every major government department) with a frantic scramble to sort out and execute, or at least start to execute, the implications in approx. 18 months. This is most likely to create extra expenditure in the MOD in the short term (new facilities to provide an adequate base for SSBNs for example), making the funding of a new project problematic, with delays if not cancellation highly likely.

If, and all we have so far are unsubstantiated rumors from Sun Who and an MP on a fishing expedition, the MOD are seriously on the acquisition trail for P-8s, is/will the Labour party be on board? With the rise in UKIP likely to impact hard on the Tories, a Labour government is a distinct possibility, and I can't see any new Defence minister committing to £1Bn odd of "new" expenditure without a long hard think, especially if it does nothing for jobs in the UK (yes, I know, that shouldn't matter, but it does to politicians, and ultimately they make the decisions). Once again delays, and possible cancellation are a distinct possibility.

So, if it's going to happen - NOW is the best moment!

The next 18 months could see anything between a maintenance of the status quo, or a massive change in the political landscape of this country (countries).

[LowObservable]

Marry in haste...

While an all-civvy solution is clearly not on, is there not a case for a mixed fleet? That's certainly something that Boeing feels is on the cards for some operators (with P-8 + their Challenger-based MSA).

You can do a lot with a small, low-op-cost platform with modern technology (displays, processors, sensors and satcoms all deliver more bang for the lb, W and cu ft than they used to) - and why launch a Vulcan-sized, $200 million, mil-speced warplane every time some Chichester-wannabe gets in over his head, or a bunch of herring-bandits intrudes on the EEZ?

I hope someone's considering the ups and downs of that approach...

[Bannock]

The decision has to be made soon. The clock is ticking for Seedcorn.
A year at best.

[dervish]

Excellent - so that is the short-medium range CIVILIAN requirement covered - now all we need to cover is the MILITARY (and possibly long-range civilian) requirement. That includes finding, fixing and FINISHing potential targets (including submarines). Globally. Something that the civvies cannot and do not do.

Is MAFF still called MAFF? I know they had a very close relationship with the MoD, with a MAFF guy often providing navigation training when onboard RN vessels because he was more qualified than anyone in the MoD. He's retired now, which must be a significant hidden cost to MoD.

Just sayin'. Civvies may not do it, but it doesn't mean they can't.

[Party Animal]

You may want to look at the "recruiting now" section of the RAF Careers website, particularly the reference to tracking submarines under the Wsop category. The recruitment campaign has already started.

RB,

I just did and pulling up the WSOp page, there was a photo of a Tornado F3 (Never an option for a WSOp and no longer in service), plus background pictures of Nimrod (no longer in service) and someone commenting on life at RAF Kinloss (yes, you guessed it - no longer in service as RAF Kinloss)!

But you are correct in that the initial picture does state 'recruiting now'

[The Old Fat One]

^^

PA...its worse than that.

The MOD RAF recruiting website is so hopelessly, pathetically out of date and out of touch it is not even mobile responsive.

And the content is a joke. Whoever they have sub contracted to do that is laughing all the way to the bank.

[Yeller_Gait]

Would the UK need a P-8 OCU for potentially one squadron and 8 airframes? Could we use the USN training and just do local conversion training in the UK?

What are the Aussies doing?

We are buying 8 x P8, with an option for a further 4, and some Triton UAV's as well. The first mission crew and pilots will head to Jax soon to be trained next year, and will go on to become part of the P8 instructor cadre. The first line crews will be trained in Jax starting in 2017, with the first aircraft deliveries in 2017 also. Eventually all training/conversion will take place in Australia.

This almost seems like a well thought out and coordinated plan!

Y_G

[The Old Fat One]

^^

assuming this is all accurate, it (at last!) provides at least a sensible frame of reference for discussing the UK case.

with the first aircraft deliveries in 2017 also

Leaving aside any thoughts of slippage, a country which has an MPA fleet/capability/infrastructure, and which has (presumably) put pen to paper at all levels, expects to get his beast into service in 2017 (about 3 years)

How long then for a country which does not an MPA fleet/capability/infrastructure and which has not put pen to paper at any level.

Five years sound reasonable? Or unduly optimistic?

So we take the decision next week (f**k knows how that would happen) we get it into service about 2019.

We take the decision back end of 2015 (best hope I guess) we get it into service 2020.

Does that seem reasonable, or is someone going to explain how we are going to magic this thing into service by 2016?

[The Old Fat One]

The decision has to be made soon. The clock is ticking for Seedcorn.
A year at best.

Makes sense...that'll be it running up to five years and if no other reason the bods on it will want to get on with their lives. And there is nobody to replace them.