Here it comes: Syria
It was said here by the Russian media that the Russian military were informed shortly before the strike and they were assured that the parts of this base where their personnel might be located would not be hit.
Military wise I wonder why that many missiles were launched (59)? Are Tomahawks so ineffective?
Military wise I wonder why that many missiles were launched (59)? Are Tomahawks so ineffective?
Missile attrition rates en-route to target would have been an unknown factor though. Russia (and therefore Syria) were pre-alerted so able to bring their IADS to bear in order to protect their base. Early reports suggest that the assembled defensive systems had little effect on the inbound strike. If this is to believed then this is a surprisingly ineffective display by Russian air defence systems.
Interesting comments on BBC News by former UK Ambassador to Syria, who suggested an alternative scenario to CW attack, and that it could have been conventional weapons igniting ISIS store of CW, and suggesting strike by US was premature. Time will tell.
Can someone explain why purely logistically and technically (not politically) has Assad's airforce not been destroyed?
Surely that would be relatively easy to do, and would seriously cramp the ability to use chemical weapons and barrel bombs?
Surely that would be relatively easy to do, and would seriously cramp the ability to use chemical weapons and barrel bombs?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
There is a fine line between attempting to have Assad be removed and destroying the armed forces and the organs of state. Look what happened when they disbanded the armed forces and started debaathification in Iraq. And remember the USA, UK, France etc are fighting ISIS in the north and oppose many of the other Jihadist groups - who would move into the areas currently held by the state if they were rendered defenceless?
Punishing them for using CW against the CWC is not the same as destroying them.
Punishing them for using CW against the CWC is not the same as destroying them.
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Just This Once...,
This strike has nothing to do with the Russian air defense system (i.e. operated by the Russian military to protect Russian forces).
I assume that at the Syrian air base that was attacked there were some old Russian systems, but they were operated (and I doubt that they were) by Syrian dumbs with zero effectiveness.
In general, Tomahawks are easy targets for modern IADS unless they come massively in decades and hundreds. Maybe the USN just overestimated capabilities of the Syrians and sent that many CMs? To ground the aviation on such as base, a dozen or two would be enough.
P.S. This was my sarcasm about their in(effectiveness). I studied this stuff in detail since late 70's (at that time - BGM) in a military college.
This strike has nothing to do with the Russian air defense system (i.e. operated by the Russian military to protect Russian forces).
I assume that at the Syrian air base that was attacked there were some old Russian systems, but they were operated (and I doubt that they were) by Syrian dumbs with zero effectiveness.
In general, Tomahawks are easy targets for modern IADS unless they come massively in decades and hundreds. Maybe the USN just overestimated capabilities of the Syrians and sent that many CMs? To ground the aviation on such as base, a dozen or two would be enough.
P.S. This was my sarcasm about their in(effectiveness). I studied this stuff in detail since late 70's (at that time - BGM) in a military college.
Last edited by A_Van; 7th Apr 2017 at 09:36.
Yep - understand all that ORAC - but trying to grasp how technically difficult it would be for the US and/or allies.
Destroy every Syrian fast jet and helicopter.
Destroy every Syrian fast jet and helicopter.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
If they were stupid enough to leave them in hangars and HAZ, relatively simple. A US general said this morning that if ordered they could take out every base in a day.
However, runways are easy to repair; and as found in GWI HAZ can be filled with rags and oil to make it look like an aircraft was inside/destroyed. The real things can be towed off base and put beside hospitals or hidden inside factories etc and towed back for take-off or launched from roads.
The figures for the number of aircraft required in GWI to be required to go back day after day to make sure a large dessert base with multiple runways stayed shut was eye opening.
However, runways are easy to repair; and as found in GWI HAZ can be filled with rags and oil to make it look like an aircraft was inside/destroyed. The real things can be towed off base and put beside hospitals or hidden inside factories etc and towed back for take-off or launched from roads.
The figures for the number of aircraft required in GWI to be required to go back day after day to make sure a large dessert base with multiple runways stayed shut was eye opening.
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Last week the Trump administration were uninterested in Syria's morass. Isn't this more of a "See president Xi what we can do to North Korean nuclear research centres if you don't do it first" demonstration.
Just This Once...,
This strike has nothing to do with the Russian air defense system (i.e. operated by the Russian military to protect Russian forces).
In general, Tomahawks are easy targets for modern IADS unless they come massively in decades and hundreds. Maybe the USN just overestimated capabilities of the Syrians and sent that many CMs?
This strike has nothing to do with the Russian air defense system (i.e. operated by the Russian military to protect Russian forces).
In general, Tomahawks are easy targets for modern IADS unless they come massively in decades and hundreds. Maybe the USN just overestimated capabilities of the Syrians and sent that many CMs?
I am more inclined to think the Russians were caught with their pants down and the announcement from Moscow that they will be bolstering their air defence capability in Syria as a result of this attack seems to support this.
Either way, this attack by 'easy targets' got through to their own target points.
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1. First, this airbase is pretty far away from the one where the Russian forces are based (some 150 km). Neither Patriot, nor similar Russian systems were designed to shoot down CMs at such ranges.
2. The idea of giving the Syrians more air defense sounds questionable to me: those stupid would anyway f.. them out.
3. The whole strike seems to be nothing but a "demo". The airstrip is OK, the planes in the field are OK. Some 6 old MiGs are gone with their shelters, fuel facilities, hangar with training classes and other secondary stuff. Quite nothing for 59 Tomahawks sent.
4. Disregarding the above consideration about the "demo", there are some rumours that less than 50% of CMs reached that airbase. I doubt such a poor performance, however 2 dead in the neighbouring village raises a point about accuracy. Anyway, it would be interesting to get real numbers. At least the holes on the planet are countable.
1. First, this airbase is pretty far away from the one where the Russian forces are based (some 150 km). Neither Patriot, nor similar Russian systems were designed to shoot down CMs at such ranges.
2. The idea of giving the Syrians more air defense sounds questionable to me: those stupid would anyway f.. them out.
3. The whole strike seems to be nothing but a "demo". The airstrip is OK, the planes in the field are OK. Some 6 old MiGs are gone with their shelters, fuel facilities, hangar with training classes and other secondary stuff. Quite nothing for 59 Tomahawks sent.
4. Disregarding the above consideration about the "demo", there are some rumours that less than 50% of CMs reached that airbase. I doubt such a poor performance, however 2 dead in the neighbouring village raises a point about accuracy. Anyway, it would be interesting to get real numbers. At least the holes on the planet are countable.
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Russia either allowed TLAMs to rain down on a close ally, or its much vaunted S-300 system couldn't handle the threat. It is one or the other.
Either way they have egg on their face.
It would be interesting what ECM measures the USA employed in support of the strike package and whether they blinded the S-300 system.
Whatever happened there is a lot for Putin to digest.
Trump obviously was doing tit for tat and will now sit on his hands until Assad is naughty again. He could have attempted to decapitate the regime or enforced a no fly zone, but both of these options would be more politically fraught.
Then there is the undeniable fact that Trump has restored the World Order after 8 years of Obama. This affects the whole world, especially expansionist states such as China and Russia and pariah states such as North Korea.
The South China Sea is a problem that must be addressed sooner or later, likewise the mad child Kim Jong-un. Trump will definitely act when he needs to, we know that for sure now.
The left in USA have been claiming that Putin won the election for Trump. That accusation now looks pretty dumb. They also say that Putin has Trump sex tapes, presumably we will be seeing these sometime today. Putin has played the international law card but seems to be suffering amnesia about MH-17 and Crimea.
Also the Russian propaganda position that rebel CW stores were hit by conventional Syrian bombs looks pretty feeble, but has been picked up by the lefties and fellow travelers in the West.
Finally 59 TLAMs is a sizable package. Interesting what the % degradation of the Syrian airforce is.
Either way they have egg on their face.
It would be interesting what ECM measures the USA employed in support of the strike package and whether they blinded the S-300 system.
Whatever happened there is a lot for Putin to digest.
Trump obviously was doing tit for tat and will now sit on his hands until Assad is naughty again. He could have attempted to decapitate the regime or enforced a no fly zone, but both of these options would be more politically fraught.
Then there is the undeniable fact that Trump has restored the World Order after 8 years of Obama. This affects the whole world, especially expansionist states such as China and Russia and pariah states such as North Korea.
The South China Sea is a problem that must be addressed sooner or later, likewise the mad child Kim Jong-un. Trump will definitely act when he needs to, we know that for sure now.
The left in USA have been claiming that Putin won the election for Trump. That accusation now looks pretty dumb. They also say that Putin has Trump sex tapes, presumably we will be seeing these sometime today. Putin has played the international law card but seems to be suffering amnesia about MH-17 and Crimea.
Also the Russian propaganda position that rebel CW stores were hit by conventional Syrian bombs looks pretty feeble, but has been picked up by the lefties and fellow travelers in the West.
Finally 59 TLAMs is a sizable package. Interesting what the % degradation of the Syrian airforce is.
Either way, the previous boasts via TASS and RT look a little thin this morning:
TASS: Military & Defense - Three layers of Russian air defense at Hmeymim air base in Syria
https://www.rt.com/news/323815-syria...us-airstrikes/
I don't buy the idea that an airbase less than 100 miles away is of no concern, especially given the shoot-down on the Turkish boarder that prompted their deployment. Unless they had a major issue one suspects that the Russian Navy missile cruisers tracked the TLAMs from first launch and did nothing.
TASS: Military & Defense - Three layers of Russian air defense at Hmeymim air base in Syria
https://www.rt.com/news/323815-syria...us-airstrikes/
I don't buy the idea that an airbase less than 100 miles away is of no concern, especially given the shoot-down on the Turkish boarder that prompted their deployment. Unless they had a major issue one suspects that the Russian Navy missile cruisers tracked the TLAMs from first launch and did nothing.
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Having a concern and launch an interceptor (even if it is possible, not the case here) are the issues of a completely different scale.
TLAMs were of course tracked, not from the ships only. I assume that when it was defined that they started flying in a pre-announced direction, the Russaan military "relaxed" and let the civil chatterboxes stream their usual blah-blah though the media.
TLAMs were of course tracked, not from the ships only. I assume that when it was defined that they started flying in a pre-announced direction, the Russaan military "relaxed" and let the civil chatterboxes stream their usual blah-blah though the media.
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This has nothing to do with Chemical weapons, Assad , the Russians etc T T it is just to big up Trump who has proven to be the complete paper tiger since being in office :-
Obamacare is still there
No additional Immigration restrictions because of courts
No Mexican wall in sight
idiotic behavior over Taiwan and having to grovel to the Chinese
FBI Investigations of what seems to be half his cabinet
No this is just something he can actually do so he did it to try and regain some credibility ahead of meeting the Chinese. The man is a complete idiot and a danger to the world proving once again that business and politics let alone statesmanship are different animals. Nice to see 'global Britain' being the first in with grovelling unequivocal support
Of course the USA is appalled at the chemical weapons use and indiscriminate bombing of civilians, after all the Arc Light B52 missions and Agent Orange use were too long ago to count right
Obamacare is still there
No additional Immigration restrictions because of courts
No Mexican wall in sight
idiotic behavior over Taiwan and having to grovel to the Chinese
FBI Investigations of what seems to be half his cabinet
No this is just something he can actually do so he did it to try and regain some credibility ahead of meeting the Chinese. The man is a complete idiot and a danger to the world proving once again that business and politics let alone statesmanship are different animals. Nice to see 'global Britain' being the first in with grovelling unequivocal support
Of course the USA is appalled at the chemical weapons use and indiscriminate bombing of civilians, after all the Arc Light B52 missions and Agent Orange use were too long ago to count right
A Van wrote
I believe that they were targeting Su-22 Fitters at the base. The planes in the field are old retired types used as training aids, decoys, etc. They have been there for years and obviously the US planners left them alone. Old MiG-15 or 17 (Likely 17) and retired Su-7 Fitter. Some could also be old Su-17/20s, but more than likely just Su-7s.
Of course the Russian Ministry are going to downplay the number of TLAMs that hit the base. It is all part of the propaganda game. The Pentagon are claiming 58 out of 59 hit their target. The same with the Russian UAV footage where they highlight the intact aircraft next to the runway. They know that those are derilict retired types and have been there for years, but they post the footage without comment and the armchair warriors fill in the blanks and claim "missed aircraft".
3. The whole strike seems to be nothing but a "demo". The airstrip is OK, the planes in the field are OK. Some 6 old MiGs are gone with their shelters, fuel facilities, hangar with training classes and other secondary stuff. Quite nothing for 59 Tomahawks sent.
4. Disregarding the above consideration about the "demo", there are some rumours that less than 50% of CMs reached that airbase. I doubt such a poor performance, however 2 dead in the neighbouring village raises a point about accuracy. Anyway, it would be interesting to get real numbers. At least the holes on the planet are countable.