Here it comes: Syria
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TomJoad, back in the 1990s the Russians had a fool of a leader, now they have possibly the strongest and most effective leader in the world.
I don't think the Russians would get involved in this militarily though they would be within in their rights to defend Syria if they wished.
But any military intervention in Syria will sour the west-Russian relationship even further. But most importantly it will likely encourage Russia to build her military forces up even more, it will also encourage China to build her forces up and likely encourage Iran and North Korea with their nuclear programmes. The more little wars we engage in the more we force the other nations to be stronger in case its ever them next. I fully expect China will in time become so strong they could take on the world, with Russia as their main partner that's going to be a very powerful force. I would so much rather be working with these two superpowers than against them. This is far bigger than Syria, or Iran or North Korea, its the future of the world. I wonder what kind of future our nations have, terminal economic and military decline is the only future I see.
I don't think the Russians would get involved in this militarily though they would be within in their rights to defend Syria if they wished.
But any military intervention in Syria will sour the west-Russian relationship even further. But most importantly it will likely encourage Russia to build her military forces up even more, it will also encourage China to build her forces up and likely encourage Iran and North Korea with their nuclear programmes. The more little wars we engage in the more we force the other nations to be stronger in case its ever them next. I fully expect China will in time become so strong they could take on the world, with Russia as their main partner that's going to be a very powerful force. I would so much rather be working with these two superpowers than against them. This is far bigger than Syria, or Iran or North Korea, its the future of the world. I wonder what kind of future our nations have, terminal economic and military decline is the only future I see.
Last edited by Ronald Reagan; 3rd Sep 2013 at 22:39.
BS, if I may make a suggestion:
Don't measure Russian wheat with your bushel.
Per the bolded part: credible with whom?
Whose opinion does Vlad Putin give a flying fart about?
A thought:
The Russians and the U.S. have a major shared interest, which is combatting the Islamist/Salaafist movement that has caused both our nations no small amount of trouble. That this common ground cannot be a place to begin agreements on a shared policy with that in minds is a disappointment, but it is not fatal. In the longer term, we may be able to use that common interest as a way to get past a few of the latest dick measuring escapades that have passed for negotiations and diplomacy.
Back to Syria:
The Russians have modest skin in this game, if any, but also have very little risk in the game. They don't need to do much to help Assad remain in power, regardless of what weapons he has or has not used.
But, if it is convenient for them to do so, they can drop him like a hot potato with minimal cost or risk to their position.
Much as they would like to keep their foothold in the Med, the Russians can probably see the writing on the wall. The evidence regarding chemical weapons and who used them is becoming pretty overwhelming. In the circs, they can hardly keep saying 'nyet' and remain credible, let alone contemplate taking any military action in Assad's favour.
Per the bolded part: credible with whom?
Whose opinion does Vlad Putin give a flying fart about?
A thought:
The Russians and the U.S. have a major shared interest, which is combatting the Islamist/Salaafist movement that has caused both our nations no small amount of trouble. That this common ground cannot be a place to begin agreements on a shared policy with that in minds is a disappointment, but it is not fatal. In the longer term, we may be able to use that common interest as a way to get past a few of the latest dick measuring escapades that have passed for negotiations and diplomacy.
Back to Syria:
The Russians have modest skin in this game, if any, but also have very little risk in the game. They don't need to do much to help Assad remain in power, regardless of what weapons he has or has not used.
But, if it is convenient for them to do so, they can drop him like a hot potato with minimal cost or risk to their position.
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Hanoi:
Merchant of Venice... A fine play...
Tom:
No-one "deserves to be killed" until they start doing nasty things to others... But, in the end, human life is irrelevant in the "superior to all other creatures" way many see ourselves. You need to learn to separate your feelings from logic and good sense, you look such a twit when you "think" with your heart.
Broadsword:
My ignorance and stupidity is rife in the mind of the likes of you... Without saying, up front, what it was you did for 25 years you have all the credibility of the armchair warrior you seem to be... Fess up or shut up... It's that simple.... anything else makes you look evasive and, frankly, childish.
Merchant of Venice... A fine play...
Tom:
No-one "deserves to be killed" until they start doing nasty things to others... But, in the end, human life is irrelevant in the "superior to all other creatures" way many see ourselves. You need to learn to separate your feelings from logic and good sense, you look such a twit when you "think" with your heart.
Broadsword:
My ignorance and stupidity is rife in the mind of the likes of you... Without saying, up front, what it was you did for 25 years you have all the credibility of the armchair warrior you seem to be... Fess up or shut up... It's that simple.... anything else makes you look evasive and, frankly, childish.
Your arguments are those of the playground, where personal insults are the last refuge of failure. Please, if you are going to continue, raise your game and desist from your petty nonsense. You may have some valid contribution to make but it certainly is not coming across fella. As for your advice, thanks, I will think about that.
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Your arguments are those of the playground
My God! You mean this ISN'T a playground? Messrs Obama & Co are actually reading here seeking logical argument?
We're all doomed...
My God! You mean this ISN'T a playground? Messrs Obama & Co are actually reading here seeking logical argument?
We're all doomed...
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Don't measure Russian wheat with your bushel.
Per the bolded part: credible with whom?
Whose opinion does Vlad Putin give a flying fart about?
Per the bolded part: credible with whom?
Whose opinion does Vlad Putin give a flying fart about?
Putin may be, as Max Hastings described him, "Stalin's spiritual heir", but even Stalin chose not to intervene in the Greek Civil War and did not invade Yugoslavia when it broke from Moscow.
Crusades are so High Middle Ages.
Having studied the Middle East at school, in military service, and through reading the works of the legions of highly-experienced journalists who try to make sense of it, I have largely given up on trying to understand it from a rational standpoint. Instead, I offer the following 2 simple insights, which I hope will help the casual reader better to understand the dynamics of the region:
1) Monty Python's "The Life of Brian", making the following subsitutions:
Romans = Americans
Judean People's Front = Shia
People's Front of Judea = Sunni
e.g. "We must unite against the common enemy" - "What, the Americans?" - "No, the bloody Shia".
2) CE 2013 = Islamic year 1434.
In the mid-15th century we'd just burned the (Catholic) Joan of Arc at the stake, and witch-hunts were becoming fashionable, so we can hardly get upset about sectarian intolerance or the oppression of women - it must just be a phase! Looking ahead a bit, there's bad news to come.... the Spanish Inquisition was established in the late 15th century. I'd like to think the region will have settled down a bit by Islamic year 2013; perhaps by then they'll be conducting humanitarian interventions on us?
Last edited by Easy Street; 4th Sep 2013 at 00:09.
Tart,
Now who would have guessed Obama would be taking us into yet another War in an attempt to save Face?
Don't be too surprised things are going to happen in any kind of sane logical manner.
What kind of Treaty agreements do the Russians and Syrians have you wonder?
WWI got started over almost as silly a reason as is being proffered currently.
Now who would have guessed Obama would be taking us into yet another War in an attempt to save Face?
Don't be too surprised things are going to happen in any kind of sane logical manner.
What kind of Treaty agreements do the Russians and Syrians have you wonder?
WWI got started over almost as silly a reason as is being proffered currently.
Last edited by SASless; 4th Sep 2013 at 00:06.
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Tart
"They wouldn't dare."
Not sure Putin is someone you try to bluff.
Obama has already lost out a few times.
" The Russian's aren't going to do anything significant."
They don't need to, they can and will make Obama's
life uncomfortable anyway.
"They wouldn't dare."
Not sure Putin is someone you try to bluff.
Obama has already lost out a few times.
" The Russian's aren't going to do anything significant."
They don't need to, they can and will make Obama's
life uncomfortable anyway.
So - I wonder how this plays out?
TLAM (or French equivalent) strikes destroy much of the SAAF, and most of the air defence network.
Putin screams blue murder but in reality does nothing overt.
Likewise Iran.
Both massively increase aid, advice, weapons to what remains of the Assad regime.
Proxy war looks like starting.
Despite Alawite advice, Hezbollah can't help themselves and start to use a new toy or two to attack Israel, as well as lash out with renewed vigour against the insurgency.
Israel hits back massively as it did in Lebanon.
Power balance stabilised - albeit temporarily?
TLAM (or French equivalent) strikes destroy much of the SAAF, and most of the air defence network.
Putin screams blue murder but in reality does nothing overt.
Likewise Iran.
Both massively increase aid, advice, weapons to what remains of the Assad regime.
Proxy war looks like starting.
Despite Alawite advice, Hezbollah can't help themselves and start to use a new toy or two to attack Israel, as well as lash out with renewed vigour against the insurgency.
Israel hits back massively as it did in Lebanon.
Power balance stabilised - albeit temporarily?
Last edited by tartare; 4th Sep 2013 at 00:32.
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" TLAM (or French equivalent) strikes destroy much of the SAAF, and most of the air defence network."
Do you think it will be that big ?
That is nearly 700 aircraft, up to 300+ fighters / bombers and god knows how many location for the SAAF and Air defence network ?
Do you think it will be that big ?
That is nearly 700 aircraft, up to 300+ fighters / bombers and god knows how many location for the SAAF and Air defence network ?
Last edited by 500N; 4th Sep 2013 at 01:47.
500N - don't know.
For that very reason, tried to total up the number of weapons the US Navy et al had in theatre at the moment.
Others correct me if I'm wrong - there's 5 Arleigh Burkes and 2? Ohio class boats?
Back of the fag packet calc:
5x90 TLAMs = 450 from the destroyers
2x154 TLAMs = 308 from the subs
means the US alone could theoretically put 758 warheads on foreheads.
Now - I assume that each ship/boat may not necessarily carry a full load out - and that also doesn't account for anything fired from other French platforms, or from forces in the gulf (would they really shoot overland from the south to hit Syria?)
A quick and dirty Wikipedia search shows 700+ were fired at the start of the Iraq war.
So, are they likely to shoot that many this time? No, probably not - low value targets, very expensive ($1.4m ea) missile.
Take down or degrade the air defence radars/C&C centres enough with TLAMs to get in some Predators, Reapers etc to plink the rest of the AA assets?
I reckon they won't fly in a Batmobile or two from Whiteman - too risky.
If you're not wanting to put soldiers and airmen/women in harms way - what else can you use?
Just interested as to the game plan.
For that very reason, tried to total up the number of weapons the US Navy et al had in theatre at the moment.
Others correct me if I'm wrong - there's 5 Arleigh Burkes and 2? Ohio class boats?
Back of the fag packet calc:
5x90 TLAMs = 450 from the destroyers
2x154 TLAMs = 308 from the subs
means the US alone could theoretically put 758 warheads on foreheads.
Now - I assume that each ship/boat may not necessarily carry a full load out - and that also doesn't account for anything fired from other French platforms, or from forces in the gulf (would they really shoot overland from the south to hit Syria?)
A quick and dirty Wikipedia search shows 700+ were fired at the start of the Iraq war.
So, are they likely to shoot that many this time? No, probably not - low value targets, very expensive ($1.4m ea) missile.
Take down or degrade the air defence radars/C&C centres enough with TLAMs to get in some Predators, Reapers etc to plink the rest of the AA assets?
I reckon they won't fly in a Batmobile or two from Whiteman - too risky.
If you're not wanting to put soldiers and airmen/women in harms way - what else can you use?
Just interested as to the game plan.
Last edited by tartare; 4th Sep 2013 at 02:03.
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Understand and interesting discussion.
That still doesn't take out the SAAF, especially if widely dispersed
recently although I have no doubt the US can get up to date intel.
Note - I may have made a slight miscalculation on the aircraft of the SAAF.
That still doesn't take out the SAAF, especially if widely dispersed
recently although I have no doubt the US can get up to date intel.
Note - I may have made a slight miscalculation on the aircraft of the SAAF.
Without wanting to enrage the NSA (who are no doubt reading this as well - hello guys and gals) or tip off the Syrians, do any of our state-side friends have any theories?
Don't forget the B-52's, B-1's, and B-2's!
They carry Cruise Missiles as well.
They carry Cruise Missiles as well.
Batmobile = B2; grunt nickname.
Yes - suppose a Buff could make the long, slow haul up from Guam - stand off and send in some pain.
And the Bone from Incirlik...?
Yes - suppose a Buff could make the long, slow haul up from Guam - stand off and send in some pain.
And the Bone from Incirlik...?
It is not a long haul from Italy.
In reality....for B-52's....it is not a terribly long flight from the USA and back what as we do have AAR assets sufficient to support large Strike missions. don't let facts get in your way.
In reality....for B-52's....it is not a terribly long flight from the USA and back what as we do have AAR assets sufficient to support large Strike missions. don't let facts get in your way.
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Diego Garcia is much closer to Syria than Guam... and B-52s and B-1s were based there during Desert Storm and the Afghan & Iraqi primary campaigns.
Last edited by GreenKnight121; 4th Sep 2013 at 03:57.