Just how great is the threat ?
PN,
Without getting in to the realms of the classified -I'm sure your SIntO / SqIntO can elaborate if asked, a pretty good pointer as to where we might be going in the coming years can be found in the DCDC publications Global Strategic Trends out to 2040 and Future Character of Conflict:
Ministry of Defence | MicroSite | Development Concepts Doctrine Centre | Our Publications | Strategic Trends Programme
http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/A05C6...edFinalWeb.pdf
Alternatively, for a more hear and now assessment of why we might need to spend some cash can be found in the current National Security Strategy (for what it's worth post-Arab Spring!)
Ministry of Defence | Defence News | Defence Policy and Business | National Security Strategy published
Without getting in to the realms of the classified -I'm sure your SIntO / SqIntO can elaborate if asked, a pretty good pointer as to where we might be going in the coming years can be found in the DCDC publications Global Strategic Trends out to 2040 and Future Character of Conflict:
Ministry of Defence | MicroSite | Development Concepts Doctrine Centre | Our Publications | Strategic Trends Programme
http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/A05C6...edFinalWeb.pdf
Alternatively, for a more hear and now assessment of why we might need to spend some cash can be found in the current National Security Strategy (for what it's worth post-Arab Spring!)
Ministry of Defence | Defence News | Defence Policy and Business | National Security Strategy published
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
Melchett, I was once but now longer. I still hold that the World has moved on and we no longer have the money to afford the resources to meet the UKNDA's list of threats.
Other countries manage quite nicely without the latest must have ego boosters; that is my point.
Other countries manage quite nicely without the latest must have ego boosters; that is my point.
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The definition of threat levesl depnds on who you ask -
the old advice to "never ask a barber if you need a haircut" applies
Each service adds its own threats which funnily all seem to require their branch to be refitted, the FO adds a load as they don't want anyone coming along in 25 years and spiling their retirement with a "Guilty Men" scenario
the Treasury can't see any threats and therefore we don't need to spend anything etc etc
personally I think we in the UK are faced with fewer serious threats than at any time in my lifetime - most of the ones that people list are either fights far away we decided to pick or fights (such as India-Pakistan) we don't need to get involved in
We still need armed forces but they have to be configuired for max flexibility - eg more helicopters and transports and a lot of cheapish strike fighters, more amphib. vessels rather than the big carriers, a decent infantry transport vehicle for once. More infantry and less tanks
the old advice to "never ask a barber if you need a haircut" applies
Each service adds its own threats which funnily all seem to require their branch to be refitted, the FO adds a load as they don't want anyone coming along in 25 years and spiling their retirement with a "Guilty Men" scenario
the Treasury can't see any threats and therefore we don't need to spend anything etc etc
personally I think we in the UK are faced with fewer serious threats than at any time in my lifetime - most of the ones that people list are either fights far away we decided to pick or fights (such as India-Pakistan) we don't need to get involved in
We still need armed forces but they have to be configuired for max flexibility - eg more helicopters and transports and a lot of cheapish strike fighters, more amphib. vessels rather than the big carriers, a decent infantry transport vehicle for once. More infantry and less tanks
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
HH 
To your list I would add proper green water vessels to patrol the UK waters. It is enlightening to see the numbers of patrol vessels our neighbours have. There is usually on Madeira. We saw countless ones in Brest etc etc.
To your list I would add proper green water vessels to patrol the UK waters. It is enlightening to see the numbers of patrol vessels our neighbours have. There is usually on Madeira. We saw countless ones in Brest etc etc.
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I would just like to point out that the Russians are constantly invading UK airspace and testing UK capabilities.(At least once a week) I would say that it's a throwback to bygone times, but it's not, these incursions dropped right off after the end of the cold war but started again in the past few years.
Even if there is no tangible threat right now, there are people constantly watching and looking for weakness. Some of the incursions include nuclear capable bombers and UK tornados are regularly engaged in electronic warfare of one kind or another during these incursions.
They are constantly testing us and any drop in our capabilities is immediately clocked.
Just something that seemed pertinent.
Even if there is no tangible threat right now, there are people constantly watching and looking for weakness. Some of the incursions include nuclear capable bombers and UK tornados are regularly engaged in electronic warfare of one kind or another during these incursions.
They are constantly testing us and any drop in our capabilities is immediately clocked.
Just something that seemed pertinent.
The biggest threat to the UK derives from your banks.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
Icarus, that is not a problem area as we have the AWACS and the Typhoon both quite capable of satisfying the air policing role. The issue is really about whether we need all the other power projection tools with what I believe is a red herring when talking of expeditions in Asia. They might be nice symetric warfare but as others have said, not really our concern as the potential protagonists all have superior forces to us.
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Icarus, that is not a problem area as we have the
AWACS and the Typhoon both quite capable of satisfying the air policing role.
The issue is really about whether we need all the other power projection tools
with what I believe is a red herring when talking of expeditions in Asia. They
might be nice symetric warfare but as others have said, not really our concern
as the potential protagonists all have superior forces to us.
AWACS and the Typhoon both quite capable of satisfying the air policing role.
The issue is really about whether we need all the other power projection tools
with what I believe is a red herring when talking of expeditions in Asia. They
might be nice symetric warfare but as others have said, not really our concern
as the potential protagonists all have superior forces to us.
and let's forget about unnecessary far eastern adventures but would it not be helpful/advisable to have MPA protection for our own deterrent? If only to have something available, in the event, to give any ambitious gents a bloody nose before they demolish us. A little satisfaction at least?
Icarus,
It isn't that busy! It certainly isn't a weekly event. The Russians are operating in international airspace.
Lords Hansard text for 23 Jul 201223 July 2012 (pt 0001)
September 12th was the last recorded intercept. Luftwaffe F-4s even got a chance to play.
Russian Strategic Bombers Carry out North Patrols | Defense | RIA Novosti
Edited for insertion of links
It isn't that busy! It certainly isn't a weekly event. The Russians are operating in international airspace.
Question Asked by Lord Jopling
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the Written Answer by Baroness Taylor of Bolton on 24 January 2008 (WA 58), on how many occasions in each of the last three years Royal Air Force aircraft have been launched to monitor Russian aircraft approaching UK airspace.[HL1663]
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Ministry of Defence (Lord Astor of Hever): The number of days on which Royal Air Force Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) aircraft have launched to identify Russian military aviation that approached or entered the NATO air policing area for which the UK has responsibility in each of the past three years is contained in the table below. The Russian aircraft remained in international airspace at all times.
Number of days QRA launched in response to Russian military aviation
2009 - 11
2010 - 11
2011 - 10
2012 to l July - 6
To ask Her Majesty's Government, further to the Written Answer by Baroness Taylor of Bolton on 24 January 2008 (WA 58), on how many occasions in each of the last three years Royal Air Force aircraft have been launched to monitor Russian aircraft approaching UK airspace.[HL1663]
The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Ministry of Defence (Lord Astor of Hever): The number of days on which Royal Air Force Quick Reaction Alert (QRA) aircraft have launched to identify Russian military aviation that approached or entered the NATO air policing area for which the UK has responsibility in each of the past three years is contained in the table below. The Russian aircraft remained in international airspace at all times.
Number of days QRA launched in response to Russian military aviation
2009 - 11
2010 - 11
2011 - 10
2012 to l July - 6
September 12th was the last recorded intercept. Luftwaffe F-4s even got a chance to play.
Two Russian Tu-95MS Bear-H strategic bombers have successfully completed a routine patrol mission over the Barents, North and Norwegian seas, the Defense Ministry said on Wednesday.
"Two Tu-95MS strategic bombers based at the Engels Airbase [in Saratov Region] carried out patrols over neutral waters in the Barents, Northern and Norwegian seas on September 11-12 in line with the plan of strategic deterrent," spokesman Col. Vladimir Drik said. During the 17-hour mission, the crews practiced instrumental guidance flights and in-flight refueling.
They also carried out joint drills with MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors over Russian territory. The Russian bombers were shadowed over neutral waters by NATO F-16 and F-4F fighter jets from Denmark, Norway and the UK.
Russia resumed strategic bomber patrol flights over the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans in August 2007. According to the Defense Ministry, Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers have flown an average of 50 patrol missions every year. The same number of patrols is expected this year.
"Two Tu-95MS strategic bombers based at the Engels Airbase [in Saratov Region] carried out patrols over neutral waters in the Barents, Northern and Norwegian seas on September 11-12 in line with the plan of strategic deterrent," spokesman Col. Vladimir Drik said. During the 17-hour mission, the crews practiced instrumental guidance flights and in-flight refueling.
They also carried out joint drills with MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors over Russian territory. The Russian bombers were shadowed over neutral waters by NATO F-16 and F-4F fighter jets from Denmark, Norway and the UK.
Russia resumed strategic bomber patrol flights over the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans in August 2007. According to the Defense Ministry, Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers have flown an average of 50 patrol missions every year. The same number of patrols is expected this year.
Edited for insertion of links
Last edited by TEEEJ; 25th Sep 2012 at 01:38.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
Shack, it occurs to me that air policing is a very visible role. We see them, we can see the AWACS we can see and hear the Typhoon.
The Nimrod was out of sight out of mind and you didn't 'see' them. OK, we did, but as far as the politicians were concerned there is none so blind . . .
The Nimrod was out of sight out of mind and you didn't 'see' them. OK, we did, but as far as the politicians were concerned there is none so blind . . .
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So, which came first, the threat or the deterrent?
Do we lessen our deterrent because there is no threat, or is there no threat because we (used to) have a deterrent?
Just to quantify, by deterrent I mean a decent military capability, not explicitly 'the deterrent'.
Bear
Do we lessen our deterrent because there is no threat, or is there no threat because we (used to) have a deterrent?
Just to quantify, by deterrent I mean a decent military capability, not explicitly 'the deterrent'.
Bear
Thread Starter
Big Bear,
As simple an observation as it is, it is the the one lesson of history. This is what I've always thought to be the rationale behind all defence arrangements. To prepare to meet a perceived threat is one thing, but the threat which usually causes a problem is the one which is ignored or lessened.
FB
As simple an observation as it is, it is the the one lesson of history. This is what I've always thought to be the rationale behind all defence arrangements. To prepare to meet a perceived threat is one thing, but the threat which usually causes a problem is the one which is ignored or lessened.
FB
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Missing person alert. A young person, erstwhile student Tiffy, answering to the name of WEBFan, who is missing from this thread.
Identifying features. May be found in RNR uniform or that of an Olympic "Games Maker". Balanced personality (yes - you know the dit .....)
Identifying cry: "Bring back the SeaJet!!" Occasionally (quite often really) adds "We can lease back from USMC, use the jets in the museum etc etc ......"
If found, please direct to this thread.
Reward: His presence here will be reward enough!
(Only joking Rich!)
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