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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 10th Jan 2021, 17:41
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Originally Posted by racedo
Let's see from home port deployment to SCS.......................... from original notice to arrival minimum 35 days, yup lets be worried.
Once they’re there....

Employed correctly, the CBG is a potent tool.
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Old 10th Jan 2021, 18:35
  #782 (permalink)  
 
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On BBC News website.
Pompeo: US to lift restrictions on contacts with Taiwan

The US is lifting long-standing restrictions on contacts between American and Taiwanese officials, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says.

The "self-imposed restrictions" were introduced decades ago to "appease" the mainland Chinese government, which lays claim to the island, the US state department said in a statement.

These rules are now "null and void".

The move is likely to anger China and increase tensions between Washington and Beijing.

It comes as the Trump administration enters its final days ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden as president on 20 January.

The Biden transition team have said the president-elect is committed to maintaining the previous US policy towards Taiwan.

Analysts say they will be unhappy with such a policy decision being made in the final days of the Trump administration, but that the move could be reversed easily by Mr Pompeo's successor Antony Blinken.

China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province, but Taiwan's leaders argue that it is a sovereign state.

Relations between the two are frayed and there is a constant threat of a violent flare up that could drag in the US, an ally of Taiwan.
Done with an eye on creating a distraction for the post-20 Jan White House occupant or a final poke at Beijing? Or both?
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Old 10th Jan 2021, 20:24
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Originally Posted by Lyneham Lad
Done with an eye on creating a distraction for the post-20 Jan White House occupant or a final poke at Beijing? Or both?
The assumption is that outgoing and incoming are so totally at loggerheads that no discussion ever takes place on continuity.

Another input is that incoming can blame the old administration for doing it which both agreed should happen.
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 15:44
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...democracy.html

I'm not sure what specifically is meant by counter-strike here in the context?

FB
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 16:14
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They can't strike too hard. They get all their iron ore from Australia.
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 16:38
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...
I'm not sure what specifically is meant by counter-strike here in the context?
It's quite simple really .....

我们将使他们为他们的干扰和无礼付出沉重的代价。

闪心勋爵

...
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Old 16th Jan 2021, 18:39
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver
They can't strike too hard. They get all their iron ore from Australia.
Not sure that is the case, Brazil is a big exporter and Australian shipments have been put on hold by China customs inspections.

Seriously, people should get a grip, China pours 10x as much steel as the US, they are already the world's leading industrial power.
Their military does not reflect that as yet, but the build rates are impressive. For client states such as Australia to peeve them is hazardous, China is a lot more important to Australia than the US.
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Old 17th Jan 2021, 02:30
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Not sure that is the case, Brazil is a big exporter and Australian shipments have been put on hold by China customs inspections
The year pre covid China obtained 62% from Australia and 21% from Brazil, iron ore is still being shipped from Oz to China, it's coal they have put a stop to.
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Old 17th Jan 2021, 03:49
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For the benefit of those like me, that don't speak Mandarin.

我们将使他们为他们的干扰和无礼付出沉重的代价。

闪心勋爵

We will make them pay a heavy price for their interference and rudeness.

Lord Shining Heart
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Old 17th Jan 2021, 06:27
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Originally Posted by India Four Two
For the benefit of those like me, that don't speak Mandarin.
I'm relieved to read this, the original headline story had me thinking China was about to launch a military air attack on Australia or something!

FB
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 06:12
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https://www.defensenews.com/global/a...mages-suggest/

China boosting naval footprint at its southern tip, new satellite images suggest

MELBOURNE, Australia – China has continued to build up its air and naval forces in its southernmost province on the edge of the South China Sea, with deployments of more early-warning and anti-submarine aircraft over the past year and the construction of what appears to be a drydock large enough for aircraft carriers on the island of Hainan.....
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 17:29
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No surprise there, the world's largest industrial power is fencing off its own back yard. The place will not be assailable at all shortly.
Then the next question is what might the Chinese do then to assert national sovereignty in that space.
Blocking foreign military patrols seems pointless, the obvious counter would be to block incoming civil traffic from entering the area..
Does anyone see the value to China in this effort?
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Old 24th Jan 2021, 16:39
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Article plus photo on the BBC News website.
Taiwan has reported a large incursion by Chinese warplanes for the second day running, a show of force that coincides with the first days of US President Joe Biden's term of office.

Sunday's operation involved 15 aircraft and happened a day after a similar drill led to a warning from Washington.

China sees democratic Taiwan as a breakaway province but Taiwan's leaders argue that it is a sovereign state.

Analysts say China is testing the level of support of Mr Biden for Taiwan.
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Old 24th Jan 2021, 17:21
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When ramming them is no longer sufficient....

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/c...putes-n1255425


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Old 24th Jan 2021, 19:44
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Originally Posted by West Coast
When ramming them is no longer sufficient....

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/c...putes-n1255425
Shooting is easier to start than to stop.
I don't think China would be eager to start an altercation at sea, as both their raw materials as well as most of their exports flow via ship.
But it sure does seem less than cautious to give local commanders such ambitious yet ambiguous orders..
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Old 24th Jan 2021, 19:51
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China cannot afford a punch up.

Their economic growth has been eyewatering for thirty years but they still have half a billion or so who look at the TVs and see the shiny life in the big cities and are asking 'when is it my turn',
An import ban by the majors powers would trigger a recession that even Beijing would have difficulty in controlling.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 03:02
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Originally Posted by Fareastdriver
China cannot afford a punch up.

Their economic growth has been eyewatering for thirty years but they still have half a billion or so who look at the TVs and see the shiny life in the big cities and are asking 'when is it my turn',
An import ban by the majors powers would trigger a recession that even Beijing would have difficulty in controlling.
Maybe not, but they’re marching towards that end.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 07:34
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Another border clash with China - tho it sound as if it wasn't that serious

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112

up at the or near the Nathu Pass Crossing Point - interesting place - if you go on Google Earth there are quite a few pictures taken from the Indian side

The LOC looks pretty well delineated there - probably a punch up about some-one straying (I'd guess Indian as they're playing it down) over the line to retrieve their cap or paint the wall from the other side

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Old 25th Jan 2021, 10:25
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Interesting short article summarised by "an argument for a rising great power to exploit the maritime domain in all its dimensions: military, political, economic and scientific"

What doesn't tie in, is their Navy does seem to be a long way from being able to secure their critical sea lines, through the Malacca or alternatively Lombok & Sundra Straits.


https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/do...ime-ambitions/
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Old 26th Jan 2021, 19:10
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Originally Posted by Gnadenburg
Interesting short article summarised by "an argument for a rising great power to exploit the maritime domain in all its dimensions: military, political, economic and scientific"

What doesn't tie in, is their Navy does seem to be a long way from being able to secure their critical sea lines, through the Malacca or alternatively Lombok & Sundra Straits.


https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/do...ime-ambitions/
The railway and improvements to the Silk Road initiatives give them sea access on the other side of those straights . Although that was before the simmering dispute in Kashmir and squabbles over the opium in the Khyber Pass might be interesting to watch.
Avoiding the need for conflict in the Malacca Straights , as Sun Tzu wrote : avoiding a conflict can be considered a victory .
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